Texas power situation

[RV_]

10 hours ago, Chalkie said:

I am going to pick a hole in your statement as a former 30 year recent resident of Colorado Springs. There were some outages in Colorado, perhaps not enough to warrant any rolling blackouts, but they happened none the less. They had a lesser impact because Colorado is mostly prepared for the cold.

Colorado Springs Utilities (CSU), where your power never flickered, serves about 500,000 people and because it is a city owned, non-profit utility, the profits are constantly being put back into the system as improvements and to keep rates low. Profits are not paid to share holders. As a result CSU has a power on record of approximately 99.99% of the time. To compare what happens in Colorado Springs to other areas, especially the 26 million that are in ERCOT, is simply invalid.

Now, if you want to hold up CSU has a shining example of what could be in utilities, that would be fair.

Gary, as you know, CSU also has to provide power, gas, water for three of four major military bases, one of which is Cheyenne Mountain which houses NORAD and other top secret tenants/projects, vital to the defense of North America and Canada from attack.  What is NORAD?

Then Fort Carson: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Carson

Peterson AFB: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peterson_Air_Force_Base

The United States Air Force Academy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Air_Force_Academy

Schriever AFB: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schriever_Air_Force_Base

Space Command

https://www.armytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2021/02/21/defense-department-inspector-general-reviews-trump-relocation-of-space-command/

While they have their own backup generators it is better to have some hardening on our power, gas, water supplies.

Another reason we moved here is that it is a major target should there ever be the final war WWIII. We want nothing with a post apocalyptic scenario in our old age. Here, on the surface, we all would go in the first strikes. But here in Colorado Spgs. Floods, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanos, just are not happening. Hail damage, Wildfires, and high home prices deter some folks. Wildfires are little threat here especially on the eastern side of the front Range. ON Edit, Gary I know we have had a tornado or two in the past, but after living in the middle of Tornado Alley for 16 years or so and on and off during active duty, nah not enough to prepare for.

And I don't believe I've been bitten but once or twice by 'skeeters.

As I've said this is the first time since 1997 that we have been living without being either in an RV, or a house with auto switched 25kw NG generator. That because we lived semi-rural NW Louisiana with power outages on any storm, because the power lines were on poles overhead, and there was an antique relay station that blew out regularly in nice weather in summer and winter that they finally replaced about 8 years ago. 

After the warning and failures they experienced in Texas tem years or so ago, that is on Texans, not one energy system or the others.

Edited February 21, 2021 by RV_

[hemsteadc]

26 minutes ago, Big Rick said:

if I wanted an electric vehicle I would buy one, but I do not.

Change has always been met with resistance.  Horse owners complained about cars.  I suppose there were those who didn't want a telephone.  Then there was the DC vs AC wars.  There's a reasonable chance automakers will stop making gas-powered vehicles in the not too-distant future. 

[Chalkie]

10 minutes ago, RV_ said:

Gary, as you know, CSU also has to provide power, gas, water for three of four major military bases ... not one energy system or the others.

Holy Cow!!! What a tirade. Does it change that CSU is a city owned non-profit organization that pays NOTHING to shareholders?  Does it change my statement that they serve about 500,000 customers? If power does happen to go down in parts of Colorado Springs as has happened in the past, the military bases get no particular priority. A downed line is a downed line and when restored so is power to the affected customer.

[Big Rick]

16 minutes ago, hemsteadc said:

Change has always been met with resistance.  Horse owners complained about cars.  I suppose there were those who didn't want a telephone.  Then there was the DC vs AC wars.  There's a reasonable chance automakers will stop making gas-powered vehicles in the not too-distant future. 

Not resistant to change. An electric does not meet my needs and I do not feel tax dollars should go for rebates to buy one or R&D to develop them. Just the way I feel. And I darn sure do not want the crooks in DC telling me I have to have one.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Big Rick

[Barbaraok]

Just who saying that you have to have one?    You are perfectly free not to buy one and, depending upon your age, that may never be a problem for you, or if you are younger, you will one day find yourself with the need for a newer vehicle and nothing available.   

As for where tax dollars go, I don't want mine going for several things.   Doesn't always work in our system of government.   

[RV_]

Gary, that was for the others reading this. I know you know it. I have had a power outage for about 45 minutes and Lynn when she was here alone had one in summer for a couple of hours. For us, this place is almost bulletproof compared to always shutting down the A/C just before a storm moved in in Louisiana.

42 minutes ago, Chalkie said:

Holy Cow!!! What a tirade. Does it change that CSU is a city owned non-profit organization that pays NOTHING to shareholders?  Does it change my statement that they serve about 500,000 customers? If power does happen to go down in parts of Colorado Springs as has happened in the past, the military bases get no particular priority. A downed line is a downed line and when restored so is power to the affected customer.

Gary, no, I never said it changed those facts you brought up. What are you on edge about? Tirade?? LOL, sorry you're having a bad day.  I'm not.

Edited February 21, 2021 by RV_

[RV_]

Texas' poor planning is costing us here and in the other states around Texas too.

From Yesterday's Denver Post:

Excerpt:

"Colorado residents were spared from the massive power outages last week that left more than 4 million Texas households in the dark and bitter cold, put 14 million under orders to boil their tap water and left an untold number coping with empty store shelves and disrupted lives.

Nor did they have to cope with the more localized outages that hit residents of Oregon, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky. Nor was a power system failure an issue here as it was with the Southwest Power Pool, which covers Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of another dozen states across the Great Plains.

The SPP instituted rolling blackouts for the first time in its 80-year history to head off a total collapse of its system as demand for power exceeded supply for several days.

“Colorado has gone through the exercise of weatherizing the system. Overall it seems that Colorado has been preparing very well,” said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden.

But Colorado consumers likely won’t get off scot-free. The lack of adequate preparation in other states could show up in higher fuel costs on utility bills in the coming months, depending on how much regulators allow to pass through.

Extreme demand for electricity and natural gas caused short-term prices to surge. Keeping the power on in the state came with added costs the Colorado Public Utilities Commission has asked utilities to detail in a “general situational report” by Wednesday, said PUC spokesman Terry Bote.

For example, the spot price for natural gas at the Rocky Mountain-Cheyenne hub, the regional market, surged from under $3 an MMbtu (one million British Thermal Units, the measurement used for natural gas) before the cold snap to around $190 per MMbtu early last week as the demand to heat homes competed with providing fuel to natural gas turbines that generate electricity.

The Public Service Company of Colorado, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, estimates it had to spend an extra $650 million in electricity and natural gas costs through Tuesday because of surging commodity prices, according to a 10-K filing it made last week with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Diversify, connect and plan

In many ways, the widespread failures in Texas are because of reasons unique to Texas. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas or ERCOT, responsible for balancing power in the majority of the state, is self-contained by design, in part to avoid federal regulations that come with crossing state lines.

Federal power regulators had asked power producers in the state to winterize better after power failures because of cold temperatures in 2011, but they couldn’t force the issue, and that has come back to bite both Texas and regulators.

Dennis Wamsted, an analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said the electricity market in Texas incentivizes companies to keep costs as low as possible, meaning they aren’t as likely to pay to insulate equipment and plants for the kind of “almost unprecedented” cold weather that gripped the state last week.

“I’m not sure there are any real lessons for Colorado. I think that there are a lot of places around the world, including Colorado, where we’re much more used to cold weather. Because we have cold spells far more often, there’s a lot more investment that’s been made to make sure that equipment works during cold weather,” said Will Toor, executive director of the Colorado Energy Office.

Some energy analysts and politicians, most notably Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott, have blamed renewable sources for the crisis, especially wind generation, which provides about a quarter of the power in Texas, but suffered a big drop as blades iced over and the wind died.

But utility and energy experts argue there was plenty of blame to go around and that finger-pointing works against finding needed solutions.

“This is a complex and very important issue that people need to understand. We aren’t interested in playing that political back-and-forth game. It is disheartening,” said Dustin Meyer, vice president of natural gas markets at the American Petroleum Institute.

Xcel Energy has winterized its wind turbines in Colorado and Minnesota, allowing them to perform at temperatures as low as -22 degrees, said Michelle Aguayo, spokeswoman for Xcel Energy Colorado. But even then, the turbines still need wind, which was in very short supply early last week.

Stutz echoed that, saying both solar and wind generation fell on the Tri-State system. At the Southwest Power Pool, wind generation, which represents just under a third of electricity production on average, ran about 10% on Monday and Tuesday.

But none of that came as a surprise. Grid operators knew that renewables would underperform in extreme cold and they could forecast it precisely.

“Wind production has performed as we have forecasted on a minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour and day-by-day basis,” said Lanny Nickell, chief operating officer of the SPP. “We didn’t expect to have a windy day on a subzero temperature day.”

What surprised utility operators was when natural gas, coal and even nuclear underperformed in the cold temperatures, leaving them unable to fill the gap. Even in Texas thermal sources were meeting increased demand through the weekend, until things got so cold they couldn’t.

Highlighting the importance of diverse power sources, one power authority within the SPP drained a lake to create additional power to meet demand. Hydropower from the Western Area Power Administration also came to the rescue.

Power supplies on the SPP system came up short 1.5% of demand on Monday, requiring targeted blackouts lasting about 50 minutes, Nickell said. The situation got worse on Tuesday when more power generation went offline. The system was short 6% of the power supply it needed, necessitating dispersed blackouts that lasted three hours and 20 minutes.

Still, that was better than Texas, where outages stretched across multiple days in sub-freezing temperatures. Nickell said a helping hand from neighboring states was critical. Imports from nearby states, including 210 megawatts of electricity from the Public Service Company of Colorado, averted a more severe disaster. But in the early morning and evening hours, many outside utilities had to use every drop of power to serve their own customers. And as demand rose, it became more difficult to move resources on congested transmission networks.

One lesson that Colorado and other Western states, who historically have operated with a comparatively balkanized grid, should take to heart is the importance of being connected to a bigger regional system. Having other resources to draw on in a pinch will become increasingly important as intermittent sources of power like wind and solar represent a larger share of the mix, Toor said.

Colorado utilities were about to join the SPP about three years ago when Xcel Energy Colorado backed out, citing a lack of adequate cost savings. Tri-State has moved forward with forging closer ties to the SPP, while Xcel Energy, Black Hills Colorado Electric, Colorado Springs Utilities and the Platte River Power Authority are looking to the California Western Energy Imbalance Market.

But that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, in that Colorado power providers will have a foot in two large regional groups.

“What the Texas crisis has highlighted is that thoughtful planning is essential to power systems,” Bazilian said  “The technical knowledge and the ability to maintain a reliable, resilient and affordable system exists.”

Source:

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/02/20/power-cuts-weather-texas-wind-colorado-energy/?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation&spot_im_redirect_source=pitc&spot_im_comment_id=sp_sXPv48AD_4461556_c_1olDIH0gqs5oPZiIdMlzCu6rmwx&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true

Edited February 21, 2021 by RV_

[Chalkie]

8 minutes ago, RV_ said:

Gary, no, I never said it changed those facts you brought up. What are you on edge about? Tirade?? LOL, sorry you're having a bad day.  I'm not.

No, I don't think that listing all the military bases (and the other links) in Colorado Springs added a thing to the discussion is all. Critical military facilities have their own power backup, as they have at every military base worldwide, and therefore it really doesn't matter. CSU as far as I am aware (I am open for evidence otherwise) gives no preference to the military bases. 

I would also love to see evidence that CSU utilities are "hardened" specifically due the presence of the bases. Additionally, CSU does not provide utilities to Schriever AFB, just look at their coverage map.

This is so far removed from my point that you can not compare CSU to ERCOT and has nothing to do with the problems in Texas.

[Chalkie]

17 minutes ago, RV_ said:

Texas' poor planning is costing us here and in the other states around Texas too.

From Yesterday's Denver Post:

Excerpt:

"Colorado residents were spared from the massive power outages last week that left more than 4 million Texas households in the dark and bitter cold, put 14 million under orders to boil their tap water and left an untold number coping with empty store shelves and disrupted lives.

Nor did they have to cope with the more localized outages that hit residents of Oregon, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky. Nor was a power system failure an issue here as it was with the Southwest Power Pool, which covers Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of another dozen states across the Great Plains.

The SPP instituted rolling blackouts for the first time in its 80-year history to head off a total collapse of its system as demand for power exceeded supply for several days.

“Colorado has gone through the exercise of weatherizing the system. Overall it seems that Colorado has been preparing very well,” said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines in Golden.

But Colorado consumers likely won’t get off scot-free. The lack of adequate preparation in other states could show up in higher fuel costs on utility bills in the coming months, depending on how much regulators allow to pass through.

Extreme demand for electricity and natural gas caused short-term prices to surge. Keeping the power on in the state came with added costs the Colorado Public Utilities Commission has asked utilities to detail in a “general situational report” by Wednesday, said PUC spokesman Terry Bote.

For example, the spot price for natural gas at the Rocky Mountain-Cheyenne hub, the regional market, surged from under $3 an MMbtu (one million British Thermal Units, the measurement used for natural gas) before the cold snap to around $190 per MMbtu early last week as the demand to heat homes competed with providing fuel to natural gas turbines that generate electricity.

The Public Service Company of Colorado, a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, estimates it had to spend an extra $650 million in electricity and natural gas costs through Tuesday because of surging commodity prices, according to a 10-K filing it made last week with the Securities and Exchange Commission."

Source:

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/02/20/power-cuts-weather-texas-wind-colorado-energy/?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation&spot_im_redirect_source=pitc&spot_im_comment_id=sp_sXPv48AD_4461556_c_1olDIH0gqs5oPZiIdMlzCu6rmwx&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true

Horse pucky! 

Quote

Oregon, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky. Nor was a power system failure an issue here as it was with the Southwest Power Pool, which covers Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of another dozen states across the Great Plains.

And this was the fault of Texas just exactly how? 

[RV_]

Nope Chalkie, but if you check out the article I was quoting when you posted, it has an unbiased perspective on the hardening that has occurred over the years here and elsewhere. T Hat Denver Post article was specific to the Texas blackout. That planning since Camp Carson opened in the first half of the last century allowed for future energy needs as a matter of course. Just like SWEPCO has planned for the expansion of Barksdale AFB in the sleepy little town of Bossier City since it opened about the same time as Camp Carson.

Edited February 21, 2021 by RV_

[RV_]

1 minute ago, Chalkie said:

Horse pucky! 

And this was the fault of Texas just exactly how? 

Gary,

You might want to read the article before you criticize.

[bigjim]

2 hours ago, NamMedevac 70 said:

All the insurance cost for the damage repair in Texas will also be passed onto the rest of us.

Amen brother but is it to be expected.

[Ray,IN]

Another facet to the Texas frigid weather catastrophes:  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-texas-emissions-idUSKBN2AL0AA

Edited February 22, 2021 by Ray,IN

[RV_]

Ray,

Thanks that was a good article on the blast of shutting down.

Here's business Insider fact checking the news folks stories on the Texas power failure: https://www.businessinsider.com/fact-check-fox-personalities-make-false-claims-about-texas-blackouts-2021-2

More here: https://flipboard.com/@businessinsider/texas-blackouts-explained-mr4tmon3blj7vj8t?utm_medium=10today.media.sun.20210221.436.1&utm_source=email&utm_content=article&utm_campaign=10-for-today---4.0-styling

Safe travels!

Edited February 22, 2021 by RV_

[Chalkie]

14 hours ago, NamMedevac 70 said:

Some if not many home owners in Texas were able to use the onboard generators in the new Ford 150 pickups to power a limited number of appliances such as lights, coffee, microwaves , etc. for warmth and hot food and internet, charging phones, tablets, etc.  The larger the engine then the more powerful the generators.

This will send the sales of new 150s into space orbit and I may switch from Rams to Fords next go.

All the insurance cost for the damage repair in Texas will also be passed onto the rest of us.

As far as I can tell that big onboard generating from Ford is only available in the full hybrid F-150s but I have to say it is pretty impressive at 7.2Kw. 

The power outage is already affecting the national car manufacturing sector as 3 semi-conductor plants were closed down and 2 NXP plants provide chips to the auto industry. Samsung provides chips to third parties so its impact is harder to determine. Read about it in this Fortune article.

[Kirk W]

9 minutes ago, Chalkie said:

As far as I can tell

Aren't you thrilled that we who are in TX have so many experts from other areas to explain to us what is happening here?   We don't even need to look out or our windows!

[GlennWest]

1 hour ago, Kirk W said:

Aren't you thrilled that we who are in TX have so many experts from other areas to explain to us what is happening here?   We don't even need to look out or our windows!

Yes, I find that right entertaining. 

[TXiceman]

20 minutes ago, GlennWest said:

Yes, I find that right entertaining. 

Those that have not lived in Texas for the past 50 years have no idea of what has happened here.   All they have to offer is opinions and wild-ass guesses.

Ken

[sandsys]

5 hours ago, TXiceman said:

Those that have not lived in Texas for the past 50 years have no idea of what has happened here.   All they have to offer is opinions and wild-ass guesses.

Ken

We lived there 50 years ago but still have no knowledge of the current situation to share. I just remember being seven months pregnant when our air conditioner died in July. I'm glad not to have the opposite experience.

Linda

ps. I also remember the day it snowed and our landlady called her 15 year old daughter to come outside to see her first snow.

[Zulu]

7 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Aren't you thrilled that we who are in TX have so many experts from other areas to explain to us what is happening here?   We don't even need to look out or our windows!

We’re not sure who discovered water, but we’re certain it wasn’t a fish.

[hemsteadc]

5 hours ago, TXiceman said:

Those that have not lived in Texas for the past 50 years have no idea of what has happened here. 

Well, I have *some* idea from watching the news.

Edited February 22, 2021 by hemsteadc

[RV_]

Y'all sound like Egyptians, in de Nile!

Before you don’t read this Newsweek fact checking article, the facts were from (gasp) Texans!

Dan Woodfin, a senior ERCOT director

Daniel Cohan, associate professor of environmental engineering at Rice University, Houston

The Texas Tribune reported that only 7 percent of ERCOT's forecasted winter capacity was expected to come from wind power sources in the state. Meanwhile, around 80 percent of ERCOT's total winter capacity is generated by natural gas, coal and nuclear power.

Joshua Rhodes, a research associate at the Webber Energy Group at the University of Texas at Austin

Excerpt:

 

"The Facts

While some wind turbines have been forced to shut down due to the extreme cold weather, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the state's power grid, said Tuesday that failures in natural gas, coal and nuclear energy systems were the cause of significantly more power outages.

Dan Woodfin, a senior ERCOT director, said on Tuesday according to Bloomberg: "We've had some issues with pretty much every kind of generating capacity in the course of this multi-day event."

In a press call on Tuesday, Woodfin said that of the 45,000 megawatts of power that were offline across Texas, thermal sources, which include gas, coal and nuclear plants, accounted for around 30,000 megawatts.

Renewable sources, meanwhile, accounted for around 16,000 megawatts of the power that was offline. Wind energy in particular was responsible for less than 13 percent—between 3,600 to 4,500 megawatts—of the total outages, Woodfin said, according to Bloomberg.

The graphic below, provided by Statista, illustrates the breakdown of Texas' electricity sources. (See link below for graphics)

"The performance of wind and solar is way down the list among the smaller factors in the disaster that we're facing," Daniel Cohan, associate professor of environmental engineering at Rice University, told Bloomberg. Blaming renewables for the blackouts "is really a red herring," he said.

Wind energy provides only about 25 percent of Texas' total power throughout the year, according to ERCOT data—natural gas sources account for 35 percent—although the turbines tend to generate less power in the winter.

The Texas Tribune reported that only 7 percent of ERCOT's forecasted winter capacity was expected to come from wind power sources in the state. Meanwhile, around 80 percent of ERCOT's total winter capacity is generated by natural gas, coal and nuclear power.

"It's not like we were relying on it to ride us through this event," Joshua Rhodes, a research associate at the Webber Energy Group at the University of Texas at Austin, told the Associated Press, referring to wind energy sources. "Nor would it have been able to save us even if it were operating at 100 percent capacity right now. We just don't have enough of it."

The Ruling

Mostly False.

While the failure of green energy sources has contributed to the power outages in Texas, it is not the main factor.

Here is the source article with more:

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-green-energy-power-cuts-texas-1569922

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by RV_

[GlennWest]

1 hour ago, hemsteadc said:

Well, I have *some* idea from watching the news.

fake news

[hemsteadc]

21 minutes ago, GlennWest said:

fake news

"Fake news" isn't the answer to everything anymore.

Edited February 22, 2021 by hemsteadc

[Kirk W]

9 hours ago, GlennWest said:

Yes, I find that right entertaining. 

 

9 hours ago, TXiceman said:

Those that have not lived in Texas for the past 50 years

I just heard on the news that there is a commission  in Austin who are gathering facts and data on the power problems to make recommendations on ways to prevent this from ever happening again. Do you suppose that we can count on the nonresident experts who are now explaining everything to us to come down and testify and share their expertise with the officials & engineers, since none of us know what actually happened here?   🙄 

Edited February 23, 2021 by Kirk W