2030

[Steve from SoCal]

Liquid fuel for light vehicles and key transportation segments may be going away.    Airplanes, boats, etc will use liquid fuel for the foreseeable future.    Fuel taxes may go up, demand for liquid fuel may decline so?     The reality of the situation, as mentioned millions of cars and trucks will still be around.     For some segments fuel cell technology may prevail and they use fuel.    

The idea that Jan 1st 2030 a light switch changes everything is just hype.     Personally I see a long transition to whatever finally occurs.    Liquid fuel will be consumed in some way until an energy source that meets the power density needed is found.   

Regarding solar/wind, the key here is storage.     There are new battery technology coming that don't use rare earths for large storage systems.     There are systems in place now that pump water to store potential kinetic energy.     Wind IS becoming a viable energy source, the new turbines are 2.4MW      Like all technology changes it won't happen over night, we are already adapting.     Small power tools are battery, heck the impact wrenches you guys talk about are battery powered.      

I agree with an above poster that fuels cells not just hydrogen will be more likely in high power cases where automatous operation is desired.     There is also talk of using induction to power trucks/buses etc on highways?     

Personally I have been working on a fissile power system for several years.    The concept was proven at Oak Ridge over 60 years ago.     Material science is just now at a place where it is a real possibility in the future.    

Steve    

[SuiteSuccess]

25 minutes ago, Steve from SoCal said:

Liquid fuel for light vehicles and key transportation segments may be going away.    Airplanes, boats, etc will use liquid fuel for the foreseeable future.    Fuel taxes may go up, demand for liquid fuel may decline so?     The reality of the situation, as mentioned millions of cars and trucks will still be around.     For some segments fuel cell technology may prevail and they use fuel.    

The idea that Jan 1st 2030 a light switch changes everything is just hype.     Personally I see a long transition to whatever finally occurs.    Liquid fuel will be consumed in some way until an energy source that meets the power density needed is found.   

Regarding solar/wind, the key here is storage.     There are new battery technology coming that don't use rare earths for large storage systems.     There are systems in place now that pump water to store potential kinetic energy.     Wind IS becoming a viable energy source, the new turbines are 2.4MW      Like all technology changes it won't happen over night, we are already adapting.     Small power tools are battery, heck the impact wrenches you guys talk about are battery powered.      

I agree with an above poster that fuels cells not just hydrogen will be more likely in high power cases where automatous operation is desired.     There is also talk of using induction to power trucks/buses etc on highways?     

Personally I have been working on a fissile power system for several years.    The concept was proven at Oak Ridge over 60 years ago.     Material science is just now at a place where it is a real possibility in the future.    

Steve    

Steve,

I am in favor of nuclear.  The turbine blades from wind are being chopped up and buried by the thousands.  Expensive and centuries to degrade including release of toxic substances from fiberglass epoxies.  Solar 23% efficiency, nuclear mid 90%.   Problem is storage of byproducts that degrade over thousands of years.  Let’s concentrate on recycling byproducts and increased plant safety.

[alan0043]

I wonder why there is a push for electric vehicles. Ask yourself that question. There are other fuels out there that need to be looked into. 

[DJohns]

1 hour ago, alan0043 said:

I wonder why there is a push for electric vehicles. Ask yourself that question. There are other fuels out there that need to be looked into. 

Natural gas.  The infrastructure for delivery is already there just need fueling areas. Burns clean lengthens oil changes. Win Win and lots of it

[orca]

Liquid natural gas would make a perfect replacement for gasoline.  There are many oil wells that have been capped because there was no crude to be found or it was too expensive to pump out but natural gas was abundant.  The price of this gas was/is too low to warrant bringing it to market.  I have a nephew who worked as a roughneck in the oilfields who told me that most of the wells that they drilled were capped because they produced only natural gas.

Where i live there are some public transport busses and government vehicles that run on LNG.

[Darryl&Rita]

The problem with natural gas is the compression required to get a useable amount of energy into a reasonable size of tank. Lots of psi involved. Safety during fueling is paramount.

[mptjelgin]

34 minutes ago, Darryl&Rita said:

The problem with natural gas is the compression required to get a useable amount of energy into a reasonable size of tank. Lots of psi involved. Safety during fueling is paramount.

I worked for an agency that was mandated to have dual-fuel vehicles, and natural gas was the chosen second fuel. As noted, the tank size of the vehicles (composite tank taking up much of the trunk) was such that the range on natural gas was limited to around 100 miles. The refueling was tedious and time consuming, so the vehicles were driven on gasoline (the "other" fuel) the majority of the time.  We did a lot of travel throughout Texas from Austin, so the 100 miles natural gas range was kind of a joke. We were limited to refueling the NG at specific agency locations that required more time than we generally had, so gasoline was used for about 90% of the miles. 

Those vehicles were (thankfully) phased out after a couple of years in favor of hybrids like the Prius. 

[Big Rick]

3 hours ago, alan0043 said:

I wonder why there is a push for electric vehicles. Ask yourself that question. There are other fuels out there that need to be looked into. 

Maybe because Wall Street can make more money with electric?

[jkoenig24]

There are currently parts of the country (often major metropolitan areas) that CANNOT supply the electricity they need NOW. Building new electric generating infrastructure is always filled with controversy. Even when "forced" through, building new generating facilities takes LOTS of time. Where exactly will proponents of "all electric" vehicles get the electric power that would make this ambitious goal, which require LOTS of additional electricity, possible? I look at this as "Pie in the Sky" sound good, wishful thinking that has a minuscule chance of coming to pass even years after their lofty 2030 goal.

In the aviation field, there has been a concerted effort to remove lead from AvGas (100 Octane Low Lead gas used by piston powered aircraft). We're talking DECADES of effort here and still, YEARS to go (if, in fact, it EVER happens). 

One thing that I constantly amazed at is that there seems to be zero effort at harnessing TIDAL energy. Tidal electric generation might only help coastal ares BUT, coastal areas are where the majority of people live. The tides are very reliable. There must be some way of harnessing Tidal energy, especially as there are virtually no downsides like nuclear waste, smog etc. If some billionaire directed carefully controlled funding toward the goal of capturing tidal flow I believe that could be achieved long before we actually reach Mars. 

As for HYDROGEN powered vehicles, can anyone say "HINDENBURG"? As far as I'm concerned, it's NOT a case of will an explosion occur but WHEN will it occur. I'd say that LNG has a MUCH better chance of widespread success as there are many city busses & garbage trucks that are so powered.

As to Carl's original question, I SERIOUSLY doubt that HDTs and MDTs are in any danger by 2030 (or even a decade after that). MILLIONS of them on the road; far too many for easy replacement or "transfer" to run on electricity vs diesel fuel.  Just my $0.02

[trimster]

4 hours ago, Darryl&Rita said:

The problem with natural gas is the compression required to get a useable amount of energy into a reasonable size of tank. Lots of psi involved. Safety during fueling is paramount.

We had a Ford Tarus we converted to CNG. It still had the gas tank so we had the best of both worlds...and a long range to boot. It was my daily driver, roughly 80 miles per day. And we have a ton of NG here in Utah...as does the country.

While fueling CNG, I saw more and more semis (mostly in state runners) fueling a large stack of tanks behind the cab. The guys loved them. Mixed burn of diesel and CNG. HP and MPG were way up. The installation cost (mostly the DOT compliant tank racks) is significant. Here in Utah we can go from Salt Lake to LA (I-15) on just CNG. I-80 to Reno and Sacramento is a CNG waist land. Like getting enough juice off the grid to recharge millions of electic vehicles, it's infrastructure. Utah is a good state if you want to run CNG. Unfortuantely, every state has their own CNG refueling compliance rules/regulations, unlike gas. I had to have several credit card like things. Nothing special for Utah. Calif is tied to the states natural gas provider to the home. So you need to be a customer...unless you live in So Cal where you can just drive up and swipe your credit card. Colorado has some differences even by county. That 'politically stupid' mindsets needs to be fixed.

The price gap between gas and CNG has closed to it's hard to justify putting a conversion on a car today. But diesel to diesel+CNG seems economically viable over a 5 yr period.

I played with hydrogen generators on a car. My tinkering was very primitive 12 yrs ago. Saw MPG and power increase. My build was so small and fiddly, it was more a information gathering hobby. Was chatting with a rather bright physicists at the University I taught, asked about storing hydrogen for that first start in the morning. "Easy" she said. "Metal Salts". About 20 min later and 3 napkins, I understood what she was getting at. Smart people those Physicists. If only I was better way back in the day at math, I could have been a contender. (oops, movie reference).

As for Tidal power just mentioned.... an article yesterday about some Scottish distilleries are now using tidal turbines to generate all their energy needs. There is a lag at tide change, but unlike wind, tides are predictable. 

Edited February 5, 2021 by trimster

[DJohns]

4 hours ago, Big Rick said:

Maybe because Wall Street can make more money with electric?

You are right on. It is about the environment if they can make money at it. CNG is not as colorful as wind and solar. You can fill CNG in Wyoming, North Platte,Ne and Lincoln or Omaha,NE and who knows where else so it is starting.

[folivier]

Regardless of anyone's position on whatever fuel source is the part on taxes needs to be taken out of the decision making process.  Taxes will NEVER go away.  Taxes will just be adjusted and redirected to whatever is needed to generate the same or more revenue.  If/When hydrocarbon fuels go away and EV becomes the main vehicles they will be taxed just as much as HC fueled vehicles.  Or more.

[Jaydrvr]

15 hours ago, jkoenig24 said:

There are currently parts of the country (often major metropolitan areas) that CANNOT supply the electricity they need NOW. Building new electric generating infrastructure is always filled with controversy. Even when "forced" through, building new generating facilities takes LOTS of time. Where exactly will proponents of "all electric" vehicles get the electric power that would make this ambitious goal, which require LOTS of additional electricity, possible? I look at this as "Pie in the Sky" sound good, wishful thinking that has a minuscule chance of coming to pass even years after their lofty 2030 goal.

In the aviation field, there has been a concerted effort to remove lead from AvGas (100 Octane Low Lead gas used by piston powered aircraft). We're talking DECADES of effort here and still, YEARS to go (if, in fact, it EVER happens). 

One thing that I constantly amazed at is that there seems to be zero effort at harnessing TIDAL energy. Tidal electric generation might only help coastal ares BUT, coastal areas are where the majority of people live. The tides are very reliable. There must be some way of harnessing Tidal energy, especially as there are virtually no downsides like nuclear waste, smog etc. If some billionaire directed carefully controlled funding toward the goal of capturing tidal flow I believe that could be achieved long before we actually reach Mars. 

As for HYDROGEN powered vehicles, can anyone say "HINDENBURG"? As far as I'm concerned, it's NOT a case of will an explosion occur but WHEN will it occur. I'd say that LNG has a MUCH better chance of widespread success as there are many city busses & garbage trucks that are so powered.

As to Carl's original question, I SERIOUSLY doubt that HDTs and MDTs are in any danger by 2030 (or even a decade after that). MILLIONS of them on the road; far too many for easy replacement or "transfer" to run on electricity vs diesel fuel.  Just my $0.02

How does the Hindenburg have anything at all to do with modern technology? I'm not promoting any particular motive method, but an enormous amount of hydrogen in a frail century old container design used for lift, I would think, hardly equates to a modern bulletproof fuel storage tank. Pretty significant apples/oranges, in my opinion. Jay

[noteven]

The battery electric vehicle world needs about 6 more different proprietary connectors to charge from.  That will encourage people. 

 

 

 

[Scrap]

Ha, ain't that the truth.  And why is that charger you've been counting on forever in your app always end up at the top of a hill? 

A couple weeks ago I jumped in a truck to do my thing and thought "man, its nice to be in a diesel truck again".  Was like, what? Did I just say that?  Right now, enjoying the forum and a coffee before a morning of moving one of each type over to downtown.  But heck, all keys crank over the same...   Crazy times we are in.

The green hydrogen is the thing I can't get over.  Cool and all, but a whole dam near us gets committed to making hydrogen during instantanious off-peak or low wind, or whatever.  The whole dam, cranking away, doing nothing but making my fuel.  That's some serious power!  

[alan0043]

I'm surprised no one has said anything about cold fusion. 😃

[SuiteSuccess]

48 minutes ago, alan0043 said:

I'm surprised no one has said anything about cold fusion. 😃

Ok cold fusion.  There I said it.  (Just kidding Al).

[hone eagle]

I remember a picture of a locomotive converted to natural gas ,the fuel had to be stored in tank cars (full size) it had 3or 4 tank cars of compressed natural gas behind the locos, not what I would want behind me in a wreck.

compare that to the saddle tanks of diesel ,slug under the body of the power unit, natural gas must be a order of magnitude less dense.

again a matter of energy density, our forbears were not stupid when they picked gas/diesel.

[Big Rick]

EV’s should be charged a per mile road use tax. The are not contributing to road repair and maintenance. Subway and train fares should be increased to cover the actual cost.

ICE vehicles pay the tax in fuel taxes. 

[justRich]

Today's Wall Street Journal carried an extensive article on battery technology.
Here's the link and I hope that it's not behind a paywall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-battery-is-ready-to-power-the-world-11612551578?page=1

 

[NamMedevac 70]

45 minutes ago, Big Rick said:

EV’s should be charged a per mile road use tax. The are not contributing to road repair and maintenance. Subway and train fares should be increased to cover the actual cost.

ICE vehicles pay the tax in fuel taxes. 

Well this is one way the elites are forcing people to give up ICE vehicles and go EV.  This type of coercion is nothing new in Amerika.  It will only get worse.  Burp

[Jaydrvr]

13 minutes ago, Rich&Sylvia said:

Today's Wall Street Journal carried an extensive article on battery technology.
Here's the link and I hope that it's not behind a paywall: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-battery-is-ready-to-power-the-world-11612551578?page=1

 

WSJ does nothing altruistically, as evidenced by requiring payment for everything. Jay

[Bill w/bus]

People have become locked to the mantra of "electric vehicles only". Rather foolishly. What about hybrid vehicles?  Diesel engines are very efficient, especially when run at constant speed. Consider then a vehicle with a battery bank and a small efficient diesel engine. For a medium sized car that should yield fuel milage on excess of  60 MPG.  For the big trucks and buses maybe above 12 MPG. Penalty would be hill climbing. Slow uphill, charge battery on the downhill. 

Years ago, early 60's, trucks crawled up the hills. Now trucks pretty much fly up the hills. Would doubling the fuel mileage be worth the additional time through the mountains?  Consider that. 

Then we come to the electrical grid and the power supply available. Power supply is limited to the generators available. Solar, when the sun is shining, hydro, wind, when the wind is moving, oil/gas/coal fired steam plants and finally nuclear plants are the major sources of power for the grid. Then there is the grid, that collection wires/transformers/switches, that delivers the power to the outlet.  Power plants are being shutdown in many states. Some have reached  end of life and others  have regulated out . The best part is  the capacity is not being replaced. And now the push is on for electric vehicles.  Should be interesting to watch this drama unfolding.  Of course the politicians will never accept the responsibility for poor decisions. To wit, California lacks the ability to supply the power demand. And who is to blame? Of course the utilities.

Think about  the long term effects.

Bill

[noteven]

An interesting talk about renewable electrical generation

https://youtu.be/N-yALPEpV4w

[Big Rick]

2 hours ago, Big Rick said:

EV’s should be charged a per mile road use tax. The are not contributing to road repair and maintenance. Subway and train fares should be increased to cover the actual cost.

ICE vehicles pay the tax in fuel taxes. 

#Texit!