2030

[SuiteSuccess]

Please don’t turn this post into a political argument but I would like opinions on a legitimate question that I have.  The goal and mandate with the climate change folks is alternative energy and zero carbon emissions by 2030.  Do you think that is going to impact what we are doing with our HDTs and Motorhomes in general?  And would it influence your decision in purchasing an HDT or Motorhome at present?  I can definitely see it affecting some full timers, many of which are our friends.

(BTW if anyone thinks this post is violating any rules I will delete).

Edited February 4, 2021 by SuiteSuccess

[aknavy]

I think it's a lofty goal, but the power grid isn't there yet.  And there are still cars on the road from decades ago.  So, while it's a stated goal, and we'll feel some pain from it, I think we're gonna be ok for awhile.  It'll take time to rid the country of all the fossil fuel vehicles.

An example of a place doomed for failure is California - they can't meet their current electric needs and are not building more electrical grid infrastructure.  So - how do they expect to charge all those EV's? 

[Jim & Wilma]

Aggressive goals for sure.  Even more noteworthy to me was GMC's announcement to only produce electric vehicles by 2035.

To answer your question, suspect we'll have no problem getting fuel to keep our diesels running well past our time . .  though also suspect prices will climb, making electric more and more attractive over time.

[Sculptor]

Just shooting from the hip, I think the trucking industry will have some influence in this issue.  Currently there are many (thousands?) pre emission reg. trucks on the road.  I think the non compliant trucks will be moved off the road by attrition.

[SuiteSuccess]

1 minute ago, Sculptor said:

Just shooting from the hip, I think the trucking industry will have some influence in this issue.  Currently there are many (thousands?) pre emission reg. trucks on the road.  I think the non compliant trucks will be moved off the road by attrition.

That was my corollary question, would pre-emission trucks be mandated off the interstates?

[SuiteSuccess]

9 minutes ago, Jim & Wilma said:

Aggressive goals for sure.  Even more noteworthy to me was GMC's announcement to only produce electric vehicles by 2035.

To answer your question, suspect we'll have no problem getting fuel to keep our diesels running well past our time . .  though also suspect prices will climb, making electric more and more attractive over time.

Jim, 

I can see the whole dynamics of full timing being changed.  Expensive fuel so a push for longer time layovers in some camping locations with a probable increase in price for sites to follow.  Cascade effect.  We have some friends (you know them) who are full timers on a thirty year budget plan.  They may be severely impacted.

Edited February 4, 2021 by SuiteSuccess

[DJohns]

4 minutes ago, SuiteSuccess said:

That was my corollary question, would pre-emission trucks be mandated off the interstates?

They won't be mandated off they will be taxed off. 

[alan0043]

Hi Everyone,

Remember the mid to later 70's for the automobile industry when the government came up with the corporate fuel mileage thing. That program never seem to work. It ok to have goals, but it's a different story to accomplish them. Only time will tell. 

Al

[Av8r3400]

“When politics and science go to war, politics will always win.”

[alan0043]

10 minutes ago, alan0043 said:

Hi Everyone,

Remember the mid to later 70's for the automobile industry when the government came up with the corporate fuel mileage thing. That program never seem to work. It ok to have goals, but it's a different story to accomplish them. Only time will tell. 

Al

I have a '71 Chevy Camaro in my barn that I was hoping to start restoring it this summer with one or two of my grandsons. Sounds like I should be putting in an electric motor. 😁

[steiny93]

My thoughts

We aren't going to see a switch flipped where all previous vehicles are 'outlawed'; it wouldn't be feasible.  I'm assuming we will see increased taxation on fuel and probably on vehicles that use fuel.

So... assume higher priced fuel (always the case).  But with higher tax on new vehicles I don't think it'd be to hard of a stretch to assume a higher value placed upon good used vehicles to skip the new tax (we already see this in other countries with high new taxation).

At the end of the day, I wouldn't assume gloom and doom, probably messy and different.

[SuiteSuccess]

1 hour ago, DJohns said:

They won't be mandated off they will be taxed off. 

My thoughts also.

[Moresmoke]

1 hour ago, SuiteSuccess said:

That was my corollary question, would pre-emission trucks be mandated off the interstates?

They already have been in California. But RVs are exempt, so far. Even non emissions compliant heavy equipment is being phased out in CA.

I go along with its great to have goals, but reality can be harsh. In some areas liquid fuel will remain a mainstay just due to lack of infrastructure. Long distances, cold weather, hot weather are not conducive to electric.

As far as the transportation industry is concerned, first mile and last mile is easy on electric. It’s the long distance in between that is the problem. If you look at fleets that run team operations, their goal is to keep that asset (truck) moving at all times. The only way for that to be practical with electric would be to swap battery packs. Similar as is done with lift trucks.

Doable eventually? Yes. Practical in 10 years? Probably not.

[hone eagle]

so just a thought experiment ,imagine a group 31 (battery)size container of fuel, how far will it get you down the road?

now how far will a lithium battery that size get you? 

called energy density ,without google just from my defective memory the energy density of electron storage is not even within 2% of liquid fuel ,so they can pass all the laws they want, the laws of physics trump them.

notice how far down the road these "feel good"laws are.They know they will not have to answer for the nonsense

[Moresmoke]

4 minutes ago, hone eagle said:

so just a thought experiment ,imagine a group 31 (battery)size container of fuel, how far will it get you down the road?

now how far will a lithium battery that size get you? 

called energy density ,without google just from my defective memory the energy density of electron storage is not even within 2% of liquid fuel ,so they can pass all the laws they want, the laws of physics trump them.

notice how far down the road these "feel good"laws are.They know they will not have to answer for the nonsense

From experience...

A group 31 is roughly 1 gallon in size. So 4 gallons of fuel will get you 32 miles at 8mpg.

4 group 31 batteries will get you to the fuel pump if you are less than 100 ft away!

 

And then it takes a lot of pumping that little pump to get the engine running again.

[mr. cob]

Howdy All,

It's nearly impossible to have an honest discussion on this topic without getting political so at the risk of having ANOTHER strike against me for posting something political I will attempt to offer my thoughts on the matter.

The "science" has shown for years that there simply isn't ever going to be enough wind or solar generated power to supply the needs of everyday life as we are used to living it.  So the politics of the matter are simple, the only way to archive what those who believe in so called green energy are proposing is a RADICAL change in lifestyle.

Many articles have been written backed by "science" that prove that when the TOTAL cost to produce, maintain and dispose of electric vehicles is taken into consideration they cost more and pollute more then the equivalent vehicle that uses fossil fuel.  Electric vehicles have their place and should be encouraged to be used for single person commuting in particular especially were the vehicle can be charged while at work, driving an 18 wheeled truck-trailer across the country as is now common place with diesel fuel in an electrically powered truck is in my opinion a pipe dream that is if not impossible unless some magic battery appears it is economically impractical in the extreme.

If you care to read a short article that really puts this all into common sense perspective, click this link.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/battery-fairy-other-delusions-race-replace-gas-powered-cars

Dave

[jenandjon]

Even if it were possible when has the government ever done anything on time?

[mr. cob]

6 minutes ago, jenandjon said:

Even if it were possible when has the government ever done anything on time?

Howdy Jon,

Accomplishing the mission, is not the governments point, taking from you every dollar it can while restricting your freedom is the point of this whole green new deal.

Dave

[lappir]

I am one of the "I will believe it when I see it people." I saw the price of gasoline rise above $1.00 per gallon in the 70's and doubted I would ever see it below in my life time, yet just last year I purchased gasoline for $0.99 per gallon and have many times over the years since the 70's. Supply and demand still works very well it seems. 

I do hope we are able to decrease our impact on the environment over time, but we have been trying for decades, much of which was tossed out the window over the last 4 years, but that's getting toward the political side.

As an Associate Degree Nursing Student in 1987 to 1989 I was encouraged to continue my education to a Bachelors Degree so I would be able to remain an RN. I was told "Before long only Nurses with a full 4 year degree will be able to call them selves a R(eal) N(urse)." That has not happened and won't in my lifetime. I am glad I didn't spend the 10's of  thousands of dollars to change from an AD to a BS. We all take  the same test and have the same license. I often times feel the care provided by my fellow ADN's is superior to many BSN's. The BSN's do write a better story though. 

What is affecting my future purchase decisions is my lack of frequent moves. I will continue to move from one place to another, but if anything happens to my truck, I most likely will consider renting a truck for my moves. Not sure how that will work, but sure hope it's possible. I will never be able to replace my truck as it's currently set up for a reasonable amount. So there is my side question for those who are considering a HDT purchase. 

Rod

 

[SuiteSuccess]

Thanks for the perspectives.  I likewise do not believe the infrastructure can support total conversion in nine years.  It amazes me though from the start of America’s involvement in WWII (1941-1945) we went from a second rate military to a superpower.  We created the most innovative bomber in the world, the B29 in that period.  It was pressurized and had a rudimentary gun control computer.  My dad piloted one.  Like Rod, I remember gas prices, but I remember the promise of “alternative fuels” in 10 years.  Remember biodiesel as the godsend?  It’s been 50.  So how can we land a man on the moon in less than 10 years but not have accomplished cleaner alternative fuels and helped the environment?  But back on point, we have a cause celeb staring us in the face whether or not you agree with the politics and it is my personal belief this hobby I love is going to get a lot more expensive in the next few years and the full timers who were planning to travel extensively every few weeks or months may be in for a shock.  

[mr. cob]

24 minutes ago, SuiteSuccess said:

Thanks for the perspectives.  I likewise do not believe the infrastructure can support total conversion in nine years.  It amazes me though from the start of America’s involvement in WWII (1941-1945) we went from a second rate military to a superpower.  We created the most innovative bomber in the world, the B29 in that period.  It was pressurized and had a rudimentary gun control computer.  My dad piloted one.  Like Rod, I remember gas prices, but I remember the promise of “alternative fuels” in 10 years.  Remember biodiesel as the godsend?  It’s been 50.  So how can we land a man on the moon in less than 10 years but not have accomplished cleaner alternative fuels and helped the environment?  But back on point, we have a cause celeb staring us in the face whether or not you agree with the politics and it is my personal belief this hobby I love is going to get a lot more expensive in the next few years and the full timers who were planning to travel extensively every few weeks or months may be in for a shock.  

Howdy SS,

I firmly believe that the technology exists to power things such as the common car using some sort of alternative energy, like you said we put people on the moon 50 years ago.  However that technology if it were scaled up to meet the everyday energy demands that we are accustomed to can't be done at a price the people can afford or maintain as the components needed to build the batteries and infrastructure are like fossil fuels a finite resource that is already being pushed to it's affordable limits.

All of the proponents of alternative energy say and have said for decades that there needs to be a dramatic reduction in world population and a radical change of lifestyle before there is a CHANCE of meeting our energy needs with sources such as wind or solar.  To produce the electric powered vehicles and to keep them charged does now and will in the foreseeable future still take fossil fuel powered power plants to accomplish the task, some States can't produce the power they need NOW, what are they going to do when and if electric vehicles become the major means of transport for people and goods?

Dave

[richardbetsey]

I think that electric that is practical for RV Coaches & trailers is some years away.

A lot will depend on companies that are working on class 8 trucks and how it works out in the real world. Tesla, etc)

The other problem is the power grid infrastructure to supply the power needed for charging. Some utilities are already having problems withe their transmission system in neighborhoods that have a high number of electric cars.

Keep in mind that to charge an electric car in roughly 8 hours takes a 50 Amp 220 Volt source. Now think of what will be needed to charge an HDT or MDT truck or coach. Without MAJOR improvements to RV park electrical systems it would not be possible. Such improvements could be in the 100 of thousands dollars for an RV park depending on size.

There are many questions both technical and financial before large scale use of electric trucks will become mainstream.

I may be off base and but I really feel that the HDT, MDT Coach future will be hydrogen fuell cell vehicles.

One last comment that maybe a bit political would be solar power only works when the sun is shining.

I hope you take my comments as more of a technical look than a political stance.

[RickW]

I think we will see the date get pushed back.  I think there are many factors that will cause the date to be pushed.

Science/Technology:  Still evolving too quickly.  The technology is improving at a rate that once tooling and manufacturing is tooled for mass production the technology is obsolete.

Political: Until things settle down politically we are going to continue to see one party on top and push in one direction and then a few years later the other party will be back on top and swing the other direction.

Infrastructure: Electric grid is just part of the problem.  The grid has no ability to store power.  When you flip on a light switch a power generation station somewhere is running in order to provide that power.  So wind/solar that is connected to the power grid has to used as it is being generated unless a storage solution is figured out.

You are not going to be able to charge an electric vehicle overnight on a 120v/15a connection.  So everybody who buys an electric vehicle now needs to install an charging station at their home.  What percentage of the population rents?  How do we expect them to charge?  Rapid charging stations require cars to be on the chargers for 30 to 60 minutes.  Even then that is just a bulk charge that is not going to charge the battery 100%.  I can fill the car 100% in under 5 minutes with gasoline.

Was considering a Tesla Model S a few years ago to replace the wife's daily driver.  Made a lot of sense for our needs for a daily driver.  As I researched Teslas one of things I discovered was that constant use of Tesla Super Chargers will damage the battery pack.  A realtor in Denver had a model S.  When new he could go all day on a charge.  After a couple of years he was charging at least twice a day sometimes 3.  He was only using super charges to charge the car.  The super charge slams so much power at the batteries so quickly it damages then a little each time.  You will never notice if mostly charging from a home charging station.  The home charging station will change the car over the course of 2 to 5 hours vs 30 minutes on a super charger.

Tesla announced last week that they are pushing back the production of the semi.  The reason was the battery they are using they are currently unable to produce.  Until they can ramp up production of the needed components they are stuck.

Financial: Now when you buy a new electric vehicle you get tax credits.  When they go away that electric car is now more expensive.  When the Tesla Model 3 first hit the market several people pre-ordered the cars just for the tax credits.  They bought the car and then sold it immediately or just a few weeks later.  Because of the tax credits they could sell the car for less than they paid for it but still come out way ahead thanks to the tax credits.

On the finance side of automobiles, today you can get a 7, 8 I have even heard of 10 year notes.  With such long car notes it is not unusual to be upside down when they go to trade the car in and get a new one.  How many times can you do that before you are in too deep of a hole?  At some point I think these people are going to have no choice but to continue to drive their current vehicle until they can get it paid down.

In 1993 I purchased a new fully loaded F250.  It was a $21k truck 28 years ago.  Using an inflation calculator I just found on Google, in todays dollars that truck is $37.6k a 79% increase.  Today a fully loaded F250 is what $70k~$80k?  I still own the truck, but granted it is not my daily driver any more but I still need and use it.  In todays dollars that same vehicle is almost twice the price.  Granted there are many more features, some mandated (tire pressure monitors, backup cameras, etc) but for an additional $40k I will keep using the old truck.  I know how to check my tire pressure.  I know how to back up using mirrors instead of camera.  As for the tailer backing assist, while it is kinda cool, you know that is just going to lead to people pulling trailers who will never learn how to back them.  So when it breaks or malfunctions they are going to be stuck!

Don't get me wrong, I find a lot of the new technology very cool.  I do believe the hurdles will be able to be overcome but not over the next 10 years.

[Star Dreamer]

I would probably consider changing to an electric HDT if the range was about 1000 miles (enough for us to go a few days without recharging) and a way for the truck to plug into a 50amp RV outlet to recharge. Right now most campgrounds include electric in the daily rate when you are staying less than a month (but that will probably change when they realize I am recharging my truck to head out the next day!), so in theory our fuel costs would not be very much. It will be interesting as to how they will come up with a high speed recharging system for over the road trucks and how much would they charge and by what method, (wattage, amps, volts, something else?)

[Parrformance]

One thing you are all missing, Fossil Fuel is a myth, this planet produces, and will continue to produce oil, as long as the sun continues to shine.

Perhaps you have noticed that in any grocery store you can purchase vegetable oil by the gallons.

Imagine how much plant life that we are not processing into usable vegetable oil this planet produces in a day.