Interesting-Toyota's 2nd Warning

[usbusin]

Toyota's 2nd Warning

An interesting article about the great movement to electrify all vehicles and the reality of doing so.  This is the second time Toyota has voiced their concern.

[Chalkie]

Nice find, thanks for sharing.

[durangodon]

Looks like somebody better get busy building some power plants of some kind.  Doesn't it take like 10 years to build one?

I think the real challenge is batteries, both for vehicles and mass storage.  The good news is there are a lot of people working on battery technology at this time.

[NamMedevac 70]

Thanks for heads up on Toyota.  I assume there are ways to recycle the materials in these large auto batteries or future plans to do so?

May be in the market soon for new pickup.  Is there now on the market or near future an EV or hybrid pickup truck that can pull a heavy 30" TT or 5th wheel?  Thanks in advance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evergreen_International_Aviation?fbclid=IwAR2rjmavjnDZDiVIQTfxcpXu8JZpzcG5eYhjUktFuwZgdg4v-MOwmDi7UUc#CIA_front

 

[GlennWest]

1 hour ago, durangodon said:

Looks like somebody better get busy building some power plants of some kind.  Doesn't it take like 10 years to build one?

I think the real challenge is batteries, both for vehicles and mass storage.  The good news is there are a lot of people working on battery technology at this time.

Don't remember what mghz it was but we built a natural gas unit in Virginia in 2 years. Nuclear plants are long term build.

[usbusin]

Glenn, it may take only two years to build, but what about all the years it takes to go through all the governmental hoops before construction can start?  

Edited March 21, 2021 by usbusin

[D&J]

39 minutes ago, usbusin said:

Glenn, it may take only two years to build, but what about all the years it takes to go through all the governmental hoops before construction can start?  

👍 And don't forget the years it takes to get transmision lines built because of permits, regulations and leasing the land.

Denny

[GlennWest]

Easy guys. I just an old welder and posted what I see. As far as permitting and such I usually don't concern myself. If they hiring, I notice.

[Big Rick]

This is exactly why the idea of mass electric vehicles is absurd. People will go full NIMBY if we try to build more plants, string more wire, etc.

Edited March 21, 2021 by Big Rick

[RV_]

Guys, it'll take at least twenty years to make the transition. We know Texas needs to winterize their Natural gas valves and production facilities as Texas was warned to do about ten years ago.

Toyota is just miffed because they backed Hydrogen with no fueling infrastructure in place where electric does have power to every home save those who choose to live off the grid.

Toyota CEO shows lack of vision, spreads EV misinformation, and spells the end for the automaker

Dec. 17th 2020

Excerpt:

"Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda went on a rant about battery-electric vehicles at an annual meeting of the automaker. He spread misinformation about electric vehicles and claimed that it wasn’t a good idea to push for a massive electrification.

This small-mindedness could spell the end for the automaker if they don’t quickly let go of such ideas.

 

Toyota has yet to launch an all-electric vehicle outside of China.

Despite the fact that the company announced an acceleration of its electric vehicle plans last year, the Japanese automaker has been focused on hybrids and fuel cell vehicles, and it has often dismissed battery-electric vehicles.

This bad-mouthing of electric vehicles has often come directly from CEO Akio Toyoda.

Now he went at it again today during comments about the Japanese government’s announcement that they plan on banning the sale of new gasoline-powered cars starting in 2035.

The Wall Street Journal reported on his comments, which included claiming that battery-electric vehicles were more polluting than gasoline-powered vehicles due to electricity being mainly produced by gas and coal in some places — something that has been proven false by several studies.

Not only is it already not accurate in most places, it’s also short-sighted to focus on that considering the electric grid is also rapidly getting cleaner as new deployment of renewable energy is becoming significantly cheaper than coal and gas.

Toyoda claimed that electric vehicles are overhyped as being clean:

When politicians are out there saying, ‘Let’s get rid of all cars using gasoline,’ do they understand this?

The Toyota executive even said that “the current business model of the car industry is going to collapse” if the government pushes for gasoline vehicle bans.

Toyoda argues that electric vehicles are too expensive, and pushing for a mass transition to battery-electric vehicles will price people out of new cars.

Electrek’s Take

You are damned right it will collapse, Mr.Toyoda, but not all of it — just companies led by short-sighted people like you who don’t have the courage to lead the transition to electric vehicles.

I am not as quick as most EV fans to relate Toyota’s reluctance to push electric vehicles with some kind of fossil fuel conspiracy, but at the same time, I also think that their insistence on pushing hydrogen is definitely something that the fossil fuel industry likes.

As for his point of battery-electric vehicles being too expensive, that just shows a lack of vision.

Toyota has introduced tons of manufacturing innovations that helped reduced the price of gasoline-powered cars.

https://electrek.co/2020/12/17/toyota-ceo-lack-of-vision-spreads-ev-misinformation-spells-the-end/

 

You see from the WSJ article below FROM 2016!  shows Toyoda, started an EV project five years ago and headed their EV development.

He failed.

Let me repeat that,

Mr. Toyoda failed - he could not do it. So in December 2020 he put out some erroneous statements, to put it mildly.

 

From the WSJ

Toyota Chief to Oversee New Electric-Car Project

Nov. 30, 2016 1:01 pm ET

Decision signals greater push despite heavy investment in fuel-cell powered vehicles

Toyota Motor Corp. TM 0.55% President Akio Toyoda is taking the helm of a battery-powered vehicle project, accelerating the Japanese auto giant’s effort to catch up to General Motors Co. GM 0.93% , Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA 0.26% and Nissan Motor Co. in electric-car development.

Toyota, well-known for its leadership in hybrid vehicles that use batteries to assist conventional engines, has long been skeptical of the pure electric-vehicle market, investing instead in hydrogen fuel-cell research. Mr. Toyoda, who in the past also took over leadership of branding efforts at the Lexus luxury division, will lead a newly formed EV Business Planning Department alongside other executives.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyota-chief-to-oversee-new-electric-car-project-1480528916#:~:text=Akio Toyoda, president of Toyota Motor, is taking,vehicles, an alternative technology. Photo: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg News

I don't think they made it, despite a lot of announcements.

Toyota's Toyoda is a failed CEO walking IMO.

I doubt the world will be transitioned to electric in twenty years not because of a lack of generating power. But from the same kind of entropy that caused Texas not to winterize their power and especially gas production and transport facilities. And as said it takes time to build generating plants. I think America is up to the transition. See even without EVs the power lines lighting California forests up, and the Texas gas production and transport shutting down from ignoring the promises to winterize them from the last time this happened ~10 years ago.

For now I am enjoying my EV and watching as the next ten years unfold unless I am taken by a sudden medical event. And it all started again with an immigrant from Africa. (An immigrant from Africa???)

 

[RV_]

Toyota To Launch Two New BEVs And One PHEV In U.S This Year

https://insideevs.com/news/487204/toyota-announces-three-plugins-us-2021/

[docj]

3 hours ago, Big Rick said:

This is exactly why the idea of mass electric vehicles is absurd. People will go full NIMBY if we try to build more plants, string more wire, etc.

I'm glad to hear someone else say this other than me.   The problem as I see it is that the EV cheering section is so strident that if you speak up against them it's as if you are opposing motherhood and families.  There are a whole group of questions which you simply aren't supposed to ask. 

For example, as the article states that "Half an hour is an unacceptably long time to spend at an electron pump."  I totally agree and have made this point repeatedly.  I understand that, on a daily basis, many people will charge their vehicles at home overnight but what about people who live in apartments?  What about those who are traveling and find a half an hour to be a ridiculously long fuel stop?  I'm tired of hearing advocates say "oh, you'll just recharge when you stop for lunch" when that isn't at all how we travel when we don't have the MH.

Oh, and you're never supposed to mention that most electricity in the US is generated from fossil fuels, so using it in an EV doesn't produce nearly as dramatic reduction in CO2 and other pollutants as one might think.  I'm a great fan of nuclear power, but I wouldn't bet on a new nuclear plant being commissioned in the US in my lifetime, maybe not even in my children's lifetime.  The stains of 3-Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukishima may have made it virtually impossible to ever build another nuclear plant, at least in the US.

There's no question but that EV's will play a large role in meeting future transportation needs, but I think it is premature to insist that it is a given that they will be the principal individual transportation system in use 30-50 years from now.

Edited March 21, 2021 by docj

[NamMedevac 70]

Thanks for adding common sense to the issue DocJ.  Are there any EV or hybrid pickups cable of pulling a 30'  TT or 5th wheel now or near future.  No one wants to answer my question and I know why.  I am impressed with new F150 hybrid but is it powerful enough  compared to regular V8??  Cheers to

https://www.facebook.com/Pilot-Bill-Perkins-Exotic-Living-And-Travels-in-Far-East-and-SE-Asia-1425108021122523

 

[Barbaraok]

Boy, the limited thinking of people on this forum is astounding.   Who said EVERYTHING would be accomplished in the next year, or next 5 years.   LONG TERM thinking people.  20-50 years down the road.   If you think things will be the same then you need to go back and read some history.  People were saying the same things about the automobile in the late 1800s.  Just a fad, no one will want them, etc.      

[Jaydrvr]

Again,

"The problem as I see it is that the EV cheering section is so strident that if you speak up against them it's as if you are opposing motherhood and families.  There are a whole group of questions which you simply aren't supposed to ask."

Well put, but we also have an obligation to continue to point out the obvious to the oblivious. I doubt any reasonable person is against progress and a better future, but we also don't wish to destroy our everyday lives in the trip to the future. Jay

[NamMedevac 70]

Jaydrvr you, RV and DocJ are winners.  Since all this will happen over next 20 or 50 years why all the hyper fuss over it now ???   May or May not come to pass.  May be another major world event to disrupt everything .   I have my vest on now.   Happy Trails To You

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1732362730399238&type=3

Edited March 22, 2021 by NamMedevac 70

[Mark and Dale Bruss]

Having entered the EV game with a Mustang Mach-e, one of the discussion points in making the decision was long travel.  We decided that we would just have to travel like we did with the motorhome, about 150-200 miles a day and that we would have to plan where we are going to stop and recharge.

It is not like driving 450-500 miles a day but them again, we are older and the slower pace is more fitting to us.

But the infrastructure concerns ware valid.  We put is a wall charger.  But  I think if everyone in Retama Village did so, the lights would dim.  Few communities have the wire structure to support all EVs.

[RV_]

4 hours ago, docj said:

 . . . I think it is premature to insist that it is a given that they will be the principal individual transportation system in use 30-50 years from now.

. . I think it is premature to insist that it is a given that they won't be the principal individual transportation system in use 30-50 years from now.

[RV_]

3 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

Boy, the limited thinking of people on this forum is astounding.   Who said EVERYTHING would be accomplished in the next year, or next 5 years.   LONG TERM thinking people.  20-50 years down the road.   If you think things will be the same then you need to go back and read some history.  People were saying the same things about the automobile in the late 1800s.  Just a fad, no one will want them, etc.      

Barb,

It happened all at once for me. My in garage charging infrastructure and my Y happened within a month of each other.

 

[RV_]

Mark,

My vet disabilities make driving more than a couple hundred miles about my limit too.

What range do you get on a full charge with your mustang?

[Al F]

Many times the naysayers lack just as much common sense as the EV cheerleaders.  

Most of the time both sides are as strident as the other.  Everyone just trying to make a point and saying "I am right and you are wrong!"  Neither side seems to believe there is a middle ground. 

This business of the EV will only go X number of miles, so it is a fact that it is difficult to travel cross country in an EV.

While that is very true, if that is what you need a vehicle for then an EV is not for you.  But that doesn't mean EV's are not practical for millions of people who only drive 10 to 200 miles in a day. 

Millions of families have 2 vehicles.  No reason why one of them can't be an EV for the short trips and a larger fossil fuel vehicle for the long trips.

Also this country and the world needs to wake up and realize we are going to need to increase our electric generation many times over what it is right now.  

Just like most things. 

--  There is so much money time and people invested in fossil fuels that it makes it easy to pay lobbyists and influencers to emphasize all the reasons why alternate energy and EV's won't work.  Also just like some are saying in this thread "It will destroy our economy".

--  On the other side alternate energy & EV cheerleaders, very much the same.  Money, fame and fortune is to be made by promoting doomsday forecasts if we don't change today.  

If people would put there time, money and energy into finding middle ground solutions instead of screaming "I am right and you are wrong." we would be so much better off.  

[docj]

1 hour ago, Al F said:

While that is very true, if that is what you need a vehicle for then an EV is not for you.  But that doesn't mean EV's are not practical for millions of people who only drive 10 to 200 miles in a day. 

Millions of families have 2 vehicles.  No reason why one of them can't be an EV for the short trips and a larger fossil fuel vehicle for the long trips.

Also this country and the world needs to wake up and realize we are going to need to increase our electric generation many times over what it is right now.  

Well said!  I've never contended that EVs wouldn't play a major role in personal transportation simply that they won't be the entirety of the vehicle fleet.   Millions of city dwellers will do fine with EVs, but even in that environment there will be lots of infrastructure issues to overcome.  For example, for those who live in urban high rises and park their vehicles in multistory garages who is going to cover the cost of wiring those parking structures with chargers?  Even for those who live in suburban garden apartments who is going to cover the investment of providing chargers in the parking lots?  Will there be enough that everyone can charge his vehicle every day?

One commonly overlooked aspect of technology development is the consideration of how that technology enters society in general.  If you put aside "early adopters" who buy the first new "somethings" just because they are new, how a technology integrates itself into the larger population is not always so easy to predict.  Some new technologies take much longer than others to garner large market share.  Products , such as smartphones, are disruptive in nature because they create an entirely new market segment, but EVs aren't really disruptive because they displace existing technology.  Historically, it's been much harder to predict the how such technologies will fare in the marketplace.  For example, how many of you still have analog TVs in your RVs because you've never gotten around to replacing them because you didn't see all that much of an advantage?

All I'm saying is that the "devil is in the details" of exactly how EVs will penetrate the vehicle market in the US and worldwide.

[durangodon]

20 minutes ago, docj said:

One commonly overlooked aspect of technology development is the consideration of how that technology enters society in general.  If you put aside "early adopters" who buy the first new "somethings" just because they are new, how a technology integrates itself into the larger population is not always so easy to predict.  Some new technologies take much longer than others to garner large market share. 

All I'm saying is that the "devil is in the details" of exactly how EVs will penetrate the vehicle market in the US and worldwide.

Good points.  I don't think anyone is saying that the future won't be different, just in how and when it will happen.  Technology progresses, with or without our acknowledgement.  However, I doubt that California banned the sale of horse and buggy back in the day in order to push automobiles.  That transition took about fifty years.  There are States which are suggesting this should all happen in the next 10 to 15 years.  Manufacturers are committing to no fossil fuel vehicles in 2030 or 2035.  GM is not the only one.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but there's lot's of work to do, and I don't think it will happen in 15 years.  I think there are about 300,000,000 (300 million) fossil fuel vehicles in the USA today.  If families convert one of their vehicles to EV, that's another 100,000,000 vehicles which will need charging.  I don't believe the grid is ready for that.

[NamMedevac 70]

Will there be EV heavy duty trucks such as 2500 and 3500s capable of towing our heavy TT and 5th wheels such as large Toy haulers any time soon or is this 50 years away.  The answer of course is NO.

Just curious and contented.

P.S. lets argue just for the sake of argue with fresh coffee of course.

498th Army Medevac unit Vietnam "Unarmed and Alone So That Others May Live" | Facebook

 

Edited March 22, 2021 by NamMedevac 70

[Al F]

Very good points by Drangodon & Docj.  

I believe when the EV's are built, at a price that is around the same as todays autos AND the cost of operation, including the installation of charging port, is less than the cost of the operation of todays autos, we are going to see a lot more EV's on the road.  

I think charging ports will be like gas stations, when there is a demand the charging ports will arrive.  

When and how the power plants will be built, that probably will be a major limiting factor.  

There are periodic reports of a number of new energy sources that could become practical in 25-50 years, but that is a looooong way out.

If this country and the world would get over their fear of nuclear power there are small nuclear power plants that can service something like 10,000-20,000 houses. As I understand it these are at the point the first ones could be installed in a year or two (not counting regulations).  Install them now, in more remote locations have them proven reliable and safe then they could be installed near population centers.  This would eliminate the need for the long distance power transmission lines.  This could happen in the next 10 years, just when the EV's may really start to explode in number.   

I think it is good to mention that the world has been operating small nuclear power plants for some 60 years in naval ships and submarines, with minimal problems.  Probably fewer problems and accidents than fossil fuel engines when you include the accidents and problems with transporting the fuel for those engines. 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2021 by Al F