Diesel, heating oil shortage this winter?

[Lou Schneider]

October stockpiles of diesel fuel and home heating oil in the US are 30% below normal, levels not seen since Harry S Truman was president. Normally levels are built up during the warmer months for use in the winter when demand for home heating oil spikes. This also affects the availability and cost of diesel fuel as it's almost identical to home heating oil. The problem is refinery capacity, not crude prices or availability although prices are rising sharply. It looks like Europe may not be the only place facing an energy crisis if this turns out to be a cold winter in the Northeast.

Ignore the partisan headline, this article has good info inside.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...df4926-4ee9-11ed-ada8-04e6e6bf8b19_story.html

[Kirk W]

When was the last refinery built in the United States?  US Energy Information Administration.

As of January 1, 2022, there were 130 operable petroleum refineries in the United States.

The newest refinery in the United States is the Texas International Terminals 45,000 b/cd refinery in Channelview, Texas, which was operable on January 1, 2022, but actually started operating in February, 2022.

However, the newest refinery with significant downstream unit capacity is Marathon's facility in Garyville, Louisiana. That facility came online in 1977 with an initial atmospheric distillation unit capacity of 200,000 b/cd, and as of January 1, 2022, it had a capacity of 585,000 b/cd.

Which U.S. refineries have shut since the global pandemic, and why?

Reuters June 17, 20224:07 PM CDTLast Updated 4 months ago.

Since the onset of the global pandemic, the United States has lost nearly 1 million barrels per day of oil refining capacity, with more set to be shuttered in the next few years. These are the refiners that have closed or cut capacity:

[pjstough]

Five refineries were shutdown in the USA in 2020, and in 2017 one of the largest in the Houston area was sold to Saudi Arabia.

[RV_]

Lou, good article. In my first article and link it points out that closing refineries to keep prices up is nothing new.

Greed and trying to eliminate competition is not partisan. It's business normally but when people die because energy producers won't spend the money and profit from windfall profits while we pay the price is well documented.

There is little partisan in the two below but some would try typo make it partisan.

“The reason that we have so few in the first place is more complicated. In the 1980s and 1990s, there was a surplus of refining capacity. Then, over the course of two decades, half of the plants shut down. In 2001, Oregon senator Ron Wyden presented to Congress a report arguing that these closings were calculated choices intended to increase oil company profits. Fewer refineries means less product in circulation, which means a lower supply-to-demand ratio and more profit. Wyden's report cites internal memos from the oil industry implying that this reduction was a deliberate attempt to curtail profit losses.”

https://www.factcheck.org/2008/05/us-oil-refining-capability/?utm_source=pocket_mylist

Recently the cry from the oil industry started out as their ability to drill was restricted when in fact we can already produce enough oil for ourselves. The next article is from an oil industry firm citing the significant increase in exports of oil while still trying to say we have a shortage.

US Gulf crude exports to hit record high this quarter, despite domestic supply shortage

June 27, 2022

Excerpt:

“Oil exports from the US Gulf Coast are set to hit an all-time high of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2022, as refining capacity outages limit operators’ ability to meet demand and the US government’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release boosts supply, Rystad Energy research shows. More than 95% of all US crude exports transit through the Gulf ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Beaumont, Port Arthur and Louisiana.

The Biden Administration is exploring ways to rein in gasoline prices for US consumers and is reportedly considering a full or partial ban on crude exports, but many industry leaders and politicians argue such a move would not necessarily reduce prices and would hurt key allies.”

Source: https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/us-gulf-crude-exports-to-hit-record-high-this-quarter-despite-domestic-supply-shortage/?utm_source=pocket_mylist

[Chad Heiser]

Saying that oil companies don’t want to build refineries is not completely accurate.  I can tell you for a fact there has been a long standing attempt to build a new oil refinery outside of Belfield, ND.  With all the production from the Bakken field (a massive oil deposit) it makes better financial sense for the producers to pipe the oil direct to a local refinery and then ship refined fuel rather than crude oil.  The company has been working at getting the refinery built for years.  They were sued by environmental groups and had to jump through other governmental whoops.  Just as all of the hurdles were getting resolved, the new administration came in with a perceived anti oil agenda (this is not intended to be political, it just is what it is) and that threw another wrench in the works and caused the brakes to get pushed on the project again.  I have a vested interest in this company moving forward with their plans because they intend to do part of it on some family property.  It has been very frustrating seeing all the hurdles they have had thrown in their way.  I personally would love to see more refineries built in the US.  We have plenty of our own oil and should not depend on foreign sources to meet our needs.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Chad Heiser

[pjstough]

23 minutes ago, Chad Heiser said:

Saying that oil companies don’t want to build refineries is not completely accurate.  I can tell you for a fact there has been a long standing attempt to build a new oil refinery outside of Belfield, ND.  With all the production from the Bakken field (a massive oil deposit) it makes better financial sense for the producers to pipe the oil direct to a local refinery and then ship refined fuel rather than crude oil.  The company has been working at getting the refinery built for years.  They were sued by environmental groups and had to jump through other governmental whoops.  Just as all of the hurdles were getting resolved, the new administration came in with a perceived anti oil agenda (this is not intended to be political, it just is what it is) and that threw another wrench in the works and caused the brakes to get pushed on the project again.  I have a vested interest in this company moving forward with their plans because they intend to do part of it on some family property.  It has been very frustrating seeing all the hurdles they have had thrown in their way.  I personally would love to see more refineries built in the US.  We have plenty of our own oil and should not depend on foreign sources to meet our needs.

I agree, and the government should prohibit sales of crude or oil its' derivatives until prices reach a predetermined level.

[GlennWest]

I work in these plants. More and more are chemical and not refineries. Less and less work is in refineries now. 

[Lou Schneider]

There are approx. 160 grades of crude oil ranging from light and sweet (thin and low sulfur) to heavy and sour (thick with high sulfur).  Changing the type of crude going into a distilling tower means shutting down the tower and re-calibrating it to process the different grade of oil.

While I strongly disagree with the decision to draw down the Strategic Reserve, that's a seperate issue.  The fact remains that every barrel of crude oil we export sells at the same price as the rest of the world market.  So in many cases we're simply exchanging one grade of crude oil for another that our refineries can more easily process.

Transporting crude oil makes up a very small percentage of the overall cost of obtaining and processing it (my dad spent his career routing tankers for Chevron).

It's often more economical to get the right grade of crude from afar instead of constantly shutting down and re-calibrating refineries.   Especially since most tankers would otherwise make the return trip empty after offloading their cargo at US ports.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Lou Schneider

[Kirk W]

No new refineries likely ever built again in the U.S., Chevron CEO warns    ~    Jun. 03, 2022

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) CEO Mike Wirth said Friday that he does not expect another oil refinery will be built in the U.S. ever again, due to decades of federal government policies.

"We haven't had a refinery built in the United States since the 1970s. My personal view is there will never be another new refinery built in the United States," Wirth said in an interview with Bloomberg.

"You're looking at committing capital 10 years out, that will need decades to offer a return for shareholders, in a policy environment where governments around the world are saying we don't want these products," Wirth said.

"At every level of the system, the policy of our government is to reduce demand, and so it's very hard in a business where investments have a payout period of a decade or more," according to Wirth. "And the stated policy of the government for a long time has been to reduce demand for your products."

 

Edited October 23, 2022 by Kirk W

[rickeieio]

If I were an oil executive, I'd have to consider that the trend of the government is towards more electric vehicles.  Why invest in a potentially declining market?

[bruce t]

The simple truth is that no one will invest in facilities that will have a limited future. Believe in climate change or not governments all around the world are working overtime to end the fossil fuel industry. Would you invest in something that may not give you a long term return on your money?

 

[GlennWest]

Oilis used for a whole lot more than fuel. 

[pjstough]

39 minutes ago, bruce t said:

The simple truth is that no one will invest in facilities that will have a limited future. Believe in climate change or not governments all around the world are working overtime to end the fossil fuel industry. Would you invest in something that may not give you a long term return on your money?

 

Or something that would reduce your profits?

[bruce t]

There are many who see a very simplistic solution. Stop fossil fuels. It's that very simplistic view/solution that IS the problem. Without getting into politics there are ways for all of us to clean up the world we live in. But using the sledge hammer method will only create more problems than it will fix. The over riding problem isnt the so called problem. Its the hijacking of the problem for political gain that will hurt us all. 

I'm glad I'm old enough that I won't be around when the $#@& hits the fan. 

 

 

[Kirk W]

3 hours ago, GlennWest said:

Oilis used for a whole lot more than fuel. 

Petrochemicals New Build and Expansion Project Analytics and Forecast 2021-2025

Globally, a total of $642.3 billion is expected to be spent on the development of new build and expansion petrochemicals projects that are expected to start operations from 2021 to 2025. Globally, 1,365 upcoming petrochemicals projects are expected to start operations during the 2021 to 2025 outlook period. Of these, 1,189 represent new build projects and 176 are expansions of existing projects.

2 hours ago, pjstough said:

Or something that would reduce your profits?

I believe profits are the reason that stockholders invest money in the petroleum companies.

[RV_]

From a non-partisan source.

Updated on March 31, 2022

Oil Subsidies

The oil industry subsidies have a long history in the United States. As early as World War I, the government stimulated oil and gas production in order to ensure a domestic supply.

In 1995, Congress established the Deep Water Royalty Relief Act. It allowed oil companies to drill on federal property without paying royalties.15 Ever since, the oil subsidy scene has been on a political yo-yo:

• In March 2012, President Obama called for an end to the $4 billion in oil industry subsidies.16
• In 2018 President Trump's budget increased federal spending for the fossil fuel industry and created tax cuts to effectively eliminate taxes for coal and oil producers.17
• In January 2021 President Biden made a commitment to oil subsidy reform, but the follow-through is not guaranteed, and is difficult, as the subsidies are mainly embedded in the tax code.
• Source:
• https://www.thebalancemoney.com/government-subsidies-definition-farm-oil-export-etc-3305788#:~:text= Government Subsidies (Farm%2C Oil%2C Export%2C Etc) ,at the wholesale company's gas pumps. More

 

[pjstough]

11 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

Petrochemicals New Build and Expansion Project Analytics and Forecast 2021-2025

Globally, a total of $642.3 billion is expected to be spent on the development of new build and expansion petrochemicals projects that are expected to start operations from 2021 to 2025. Globally, 1,365 upcoming petrochemicals projects are expected to start operations during the 2021 to 2025 outlook period. Of these, 1,189 represent new build projects and 176 are expansions of existing projects.

I believe profits are the reason that stockholders invest money in the petroleum companies.

Yes, profit for companies is a good thing, so it is the best economic interest of the oil companies to maintain a shortage as long as profits remain at an all-time high.

I personally dont like the words "price gouging."  What is called "price gouging" is just capitalism at its best or worst, depending on whether you are buying or selling.

[bruce t]

Kirk a global investment of $600+ billion includes countries such as China and Russia who hardly ever consider goals or any targets or figures relevant to what is happening in countries such as Australia and the USA. While some countries are hell bent on destroying their own economies most countries in the world are forging ahead without regards to any targets set by virtue signalling "wealthy" countries.

Australia is a prime example. We have shut down almost all refineries and our few remaining coal powered generators are on their last legs. Yet we are happy to be the biggest coal exporter to those countries playing lip service to goals while giving everyone the middle finger. We don't pollute but are happy to assist others to do it. Bit like a crazed drug dealer!

And on the subject of dumb and dumber. Australia's emergency reserves of fuel are actually stored in the USA. Go figure that one out.

 

 

[ms60ocb]

8 hours ago, bruce t said:

And on the subject of dumb and dumber. Australia's emergency reserves of fuel are actually stored in the USA. Go figure that one out.

 

VERY INTERESTING. Are we selling those reserves also. Is anyone Auditing the books.

Yesterday Regular Gas in town $3.79 Diesel $5.15  30 miles east, prices on the upward swing are $4.10 and $5.46.

This difference, Regular vs Diesel, isn't because its harvest season but has been that way since the price of fuels started going up. It is like the Grocery stores have certain price leaders. Just 4 days ago one grocery had lettuce at $5 a head, another was priced $1.78 but no lettuce available. I just hope, we are not headed to price controls. I caught in that 50 Years ago.

This has been a country requiring profits and laws. I don't mind paying the profits or the taxes but lets have some equality.

Clay

[Kirk W]

On 10/24/2022 at 8:25 AM, ms60ocb said:

Yesterday Regular Gas in town $3.79 Diesel $5.15  30 miles east, prices on the upward swing are $4.10 and $5.46.

Where are you located? The fuel at Murphy (Walmart) near us is gasoline $3.04 and diesel $4.69.

On 10/24/2022 at 8:25 AM, ms60ocb said:

This difference, Regular vs Diesel, isn't because its harvest season but has been that way since the price of fuels started going up.

There are several reasons for the differential in prices and that differential has changed a lot with time as well but demand for diesel doens't drop as much with increased prices becasue so much of it is used by trucking, construction, farming, and other types of business that have to buy it or go out of business, while gasoline is mostly used by individuals who can travel less, car-pool, take vacations closer to home, get an electric or hybrid car, or a host of other ways to cut the amount that they buy. 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Kirk W
typo

[Lou Schneider]

2 hours ago, ms60ocb said:

VERY INTERESTING. Are we selling those reserves also. Is anyone Auditing the books.

Yesterday Regular Gas in town $3.79 Diesel $5.15  30 miles east, prices on the upward swing are $4.10 and $5.46.

This difference, Regular vs Diesel, isn't because its harvest season but has been that way since the price of fuels started going up. It is like the Grocery stores have certain price leaders. Just 4 days ago one grocery had lettuce at $5 a head, another was priced $1.78 but no lettuce available. I just hope, we are not headed to price controls. I caught in that 50 Years ago.

This has been a country requiring profits and laws. I don't mind paying the profits or the taxes but lets have some equality.

Clay

Regular and diesel prices are typically 20 to 30 cents a gallon cheaper in Pahrump. NV than in Las Vegas.  The difference is Pahrump is in a different county than Las Vegas and has much lower local taxes which more than offset the expense of trucking the fuel here.

Pahrump also has the lowest fuel prices within driving distance of Death Valley, often by as much as $2 a gallon.  Beatty is marginally closer and is significantly cheaper than buying gas inside the park but their prices are often a dollar or so higher than in Pahrump.

[Ray,IN]

Biden administration announces plan to replentish stratigic oil reserve: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/18/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-announce-new-actions-to-strengthen-u-s-energy-security-encourage-production-and-bring-down-costs/

Isn't this somewhat like pay now or pay later?

Edited October 24, 2022 by Ray,IN

[ms60ocb]

11 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Where are you located? The fuel at Murphy (Walmart) near us is gasoline $3.04 and diesel $4.69.

I'm in NW IL and the city to the east is Rockford Our cheapest in last couple months regular was below $3.50 and diesel about $4.85.  Rockford is normally cheapest fuel and Sam's Club regular was 45 cents cheaper than surrounding area. Illinois prices include 6.25% sales tax.

Clay

[Vladimir]

Paid $5.89 for diesel today in Washington state.  The fill-up was $144 dollars, and the pump was limited to $100 per pump so you have to run it twice. 

The new Washington state carbon tax will raise diesel prices another 40-60 cents in late winter.

Definitely heading to an "extended stay" model of traveling.  Right now its a week, looks like two weeks for next year.

[Kirk W]

11 hours ago, Vladimir said:

Paid $5.89 for diesel today in Washington state

Current prices at Murphy Oil down at our nearest Walmart are $4.63 for diesel and $2.99 for regular gasoline.  That is in Mesquite, TX. GasBuddy says that diesel in this area (Dallas suburb) ranges from $4.63 to $4.89. I suspect that a major part of the difference is state tax. State tax here is 20₵ per gallon on both gasoline and diesel.

Edited October 26, 2022 by Kirk W