Fuel prices

[gjhunter01]

Wasn't crude oil a negative $40/barrel just a year or so ago? With fluctuating prices as we have seen, it's no wonder oil companies are not interested in long term drilling/piping investments. These wild price swings are just an indicator that oil's future is waning, oil companies and auto companies all know that! GM will be all electric by 2035. The great energy transition is well under way.

Edited March 17, 2022 by gjhunter01

[durangodon]

30 minutes ago, gjhunter01 said:

These wild price swings are just an indicator that oil's future is waning, oil companies and auto companies all know that! GM will be all electric by 2035. The great energy transition is well under way.

If I thought I had a chance of living to 2035, I'd offer you a wager on the GM claim.  Even if it happens, there will still be millions of vehicles on the roads which need gasoline.  Forty years ago, the big worry of the world was that we would run out of petroleum in 40 or 50 years.  Didn't happen yet.

Look around your RV or your sticks and bricks home and see how many items don't require petroleum.  The walls, ceiling, floors, exterior, furniture, cabinets, utensils, appliances, etc. etc.

Wild price swings?  Look at history.  Fourteen years ago I paid about what I'm paying now for fuel.  If you time adjust the cost, we've paid more in the past than we are now.  The past couple of years fuel prices have gone low, mostly because of lowered consumption.  A year from now, we'll probably be somewhere in between last month and today.  The recent wild price swings have nothing to do with electric cars.  It has mostly to do with the marketplace and buyers and sellers trying to posture and make their best profit.  That's what we all do.

Yes, the great energy transition is under way, as it has been for the past couple of centuries.  Petroleum is not new, neither is so called renewable energy.  In the 1700's and 1800's much of America's industry was once driven by water and wood and coal.  Two of those were renewables.

[Kirk W]

2 hours ago, bigjim said:

Does AU stand for Austrailia.

From "writing explained: There are two common abbreviations of Australia: Au. and AU.

2 hours ago, gjhunter01 said:

Wasn't crude oil a negative $40/barrel just a year or so ago?

Are you saying that the oil companies were paying others to take their crude? 

[mptjelgin]

26 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

Are you saying that the oil companies were paying others to take their crude? 

US oil prices turn negative as demand dries up

[rickeieio]

1 hour ago, Kirk W said:

Are you saying that the oil companies were paying others to take their crude? 

Not the oil companies, but many smaller players.  Many wells are owned by little companies who buy up less productive wells and re-work them.  There was a shortage of storage for crude, and those operating the facilities kept backing off bids to the point where they were essentially saying, "we don't want your oil, but if you pay us this much, we'll take it off your hands."

In this case, the oil companies were in fact the potential "buyers."  The refineries were shutting down because nobody was driving, tanks were full, and they just couldn't handle any more deliveries.

In the grain market, this would be called a "basis swing".  When the elevator gets full, or there's no buyers lined up, ships are full, etc., they back off the bid price to discourage deliveries.

Nobody expected the "basis" to become negative, but it happened.

[bruce t]

Kirk you can pay at the pump in Australia. Many do. With a card. But many folks still like to go inside pay for their fuel and fill up with pies, candies, drinks etc etc etc.

Just a comment on the EV 'revolution'. Wont happen. GM, Ford Toyota will still make ICEs for decades to come. You see us 'rich' countries ignore markets like the sub continent. Tell the Indians they have to buy an EV and charge with what? Tell all the poor countries in Africa that they will need to spend billions on a power grid and billions on a new EV. Money they don't have. Many of those folks don't even have power to their house. Don't look at the world with blinkers on. Nope. ICEs will be here long after we are all worm food. I get annoyed when rich folks are telling those who aspire to be like us that they can't be like us.

[Dutch_12078]

1 hour ago, bruce t said:

Kirk you can pay at the pump in Australia. Many do. With a card. But many folks still like to go inside pay for their fuel and fill up with pies, candies, drinks etc etc etc.

Just a comment on the EV 'revolution'. Wont happen. GM, Ford Toyota will still make ICEs for decades to come. You see us 'rich' countries ignore markets like the sub continent. Tell the Indians they have to buy an EV and charge with what? Tell all the poor countries in Africa that they will need to spend billions on a power grid and billions on a new EV. Money they don't have. Many of those folks don't even have power to their house. Don't look at the world with blinkers on. Nope. ICEs will be here long after we are all worm food. I get annoyed when rich folks are telling those who aspire to be like us that they can't be like us.

Does that mean you don't believe Ford, GM, etc, mean it when they say they're committing billions of dollars with the goal of going all electric in the next decade or so? Ford can't keep up with the orders for it's F-150 EV pickup and is building new plants for manufacturing battery and other EV parts. GM has committed to going all EV by 2035.

[Star Dreamer]

8 minutes ago, Dutch_12078 said:

Does that mean you don't believe Ford, GM, etc, mean it when they say they're committing billions of dollars with the goal of going all electric in the next decade or so? Ford can't keep up with the orders for it's F-150 EV pickup and is building new plants for manufacturing battery and other EV parts. GM has committed to going all EV by 2035.

The info we have seen implies only the US. Most likely they will create subsidiaries to provide vehicles with the ICE to other markets still. 

[rickeieio]

19 minutes ago, Dutch_12078 said:

Does that mean you don't believe Ford, GM, etc, mean it when they say they're committing billions of dollars with the goal of going all electric in the next decade or so? Ford can't keep up with the orders for it's F-150 EV pickup and is building new plants for manufacturing battery and other EV parts. GM has committed to going all EV by 2035.

Ford can't keep up with production on ANY pick-ups.  My grandson ordered a new F-250 before Thanksgiving.  He hasn't even had his order accepted, much less given a production date.  Goods news is, by the time he gets it, he'll have saved so much money he'll likely be able to pay cash.

BTW, Ford announced a couple weeks ago they are splitting the company, one building conventional vehicles, the other building EV's.  I expect the other major players to do the same.

[durangodon]

2 hours ago, bruce t said:

 ICEs will be here long after we are all worm food.

You mean worms eat ashes?

[bruce t]

54 minutes ago, durangodon said:

You mean worms eat ashes?

I'm not taking any risks!

[franco-bolli]

Here are the average diesel prices by state as of 26 March 2022 11AM MST as reported by GasBuddy web site. (if you visit the site, be sure to choose diesel instead of the default of gas)
 

Edited January 27, 2023 by franco-bolli
removed image, no longer relavant

[sandsys]

58 minutes ago, franco-bolli said:

Here are the average diesel prices by state as of 26 March 2022 11AM MST as reported by GasBuddy web site. (if you visit the site, be sure to choose diesel instead of the default of gas)

That dark strip down the middle is where it is hard to find diesel that is not a high percentage of bio fuel. If your engine is sensitive to that, be aware.

Linda

[rickeieio]

It's interesting to see that each color is about 10-15 cent range, until you get to the red, then LOOK OUT!!!

Thank goodness for big tanks.

[franco-bolli]

On 3/26/2022 at 12:19 PM, sandsys said:

That dark strip down the middle is where it is hard to find diesel that is not a high percentage of bio fuel. If your engine is sensitive to that, be aware.

Linda

I'd like to find an app or map or some other method of identifying the stations with Bio diesel BEFORE I pull up to the pump.

I think my engine will handle upto 20% bio, but so far I've been able to avoid it.

.
 

Edited January 27, 2023 by franco-bolli
removed screen shot

[sandsys]

41 minutes ago, franco-bolli said:

I'd like to find an app or map or some other method of identifying the stations with Bio diesel BEFORE I pull up to the pump.

I had good luck with Valero in the southwest when I needed no more than 5% biodiesel but I haven't had a diesel since 2012 so that may have changed.

Linda

[WILDEBILL308]

Well I was in Cal. last week. The Love's in Tulare was $6.489 with TSD it was $0.30 cheaper and it was 20% Bio. Later stopped at the Petro in Eloy $5.359 saved $0.76 off that with EFS card. 

Bill

[Vladimir]

On 3/17/2022 at 5:13 PM, Dutch_12078 said:

Does that mean you don't believe Ford, GM, etc, mean it when they say they're committing billions of dollars with the goal of going all electric in the next decade or so? Ford can't keep up with the orders for it's F-150 EV pickup and is building new plants for manufacturing battery and other EV parts. GM has committed to going all EV by 2035.

Yep, don't believe a thing they say.

It DOESN"T matter to them, they shift priorities time and time again, based primarily on fads and poltics.

My wife got shares of Ammco when her grandfather died.  He was a steamfitter for the company.

It was in the 1990's and we kept the shares.  

Back in the 1990's British Petroleum bought Ammco and changed their name to BP (Beyond Petroleum).  I bought solar panels made by BP in Maryland in the late 1990's.  They are still working on my off-grid house.

BP after a few years decided that solar panels were NOT the future.  They closed the business.

Last year, BP decided that GREEN is the future and are buying solar panel businesses and other green businesses.....again.  

They are taking their profits in oil and gas and investing in a GREEN future, instead of oil and gas.  Hmmm, think your gas prices are going down anytime soon if the major oil companies are going GREEN and significantly reducing their drilling for oil and gas??

I believe GM has been bailed out three or four times by the Federal government for bad business decisions.  I suspect there is a future bailout coming......well, maybe this time IT IS DIFFERENT.  Nah....same story, different time.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Vladimir

[Dutch_12078]

37 minutes ago, Vladimir said:

...

Last year, BP decided that GREEN is the future and are buying solar panel businesses and other green businesses.....again.  

They are taking their profits in oil and gas and investing in a GREEN future, instead of oil and gas.  Hmmm, think your gas prices are going down anytime soon if the major oil companies are going GREEN and significantly reducing their drilling for oil and gas??

Do I think gas prices are going down anytime soon? Well, here in Georgia I've watched gas prices go down about $0.75/gal in just the past week. Long term? Anyone's guess...

[Vladimir]

13 minutes ago, Dutch_12078 said:

Do I think gas prices are going down anytime soon? Well, here in Georgia I've watched gas prices go down about $0.75/gal in just the past week. Long term? Anyone's guess...

Short-term....release oil from the reserve, yeah prices will come down.  At some point, that doesn't work anymore.

Medium-term.....my guess we are headed for a severe recession.  Just like during the pandemic that will bring down oil prices.  Every recession brings down oil prices.

Long-term........my guess is prices are headed much, much higher.   HALF the Wall Street banks have said they WILL NOT lend to oil and gas companies.  University and lots of stock fund managers are saying for "moral" reasons they will NOT invest in oil and gas stocks.  The you have current administration politics.  Then you have oil and gas companies shifting THEIR investments into green energy projects.

WOW....that means MUCH, MUCH higher prices for gas and diesel in the near future.  

Not selling our BP stock, but I do wish they would invest more in oil and gas exploration than charging stations for EV's.

 

[pjstough]

7 minutes ago, Vladimir said:

Short-term....release oil from the reserve, yeah prices will come down.  At some point, that doesn't work anymore.

Medium-term.....my guess we are headed for a severe recession.  Just like during the pandemic that will bring down oil prices.  Every recession brings down oil prices.

Long-term........my guess is prices are headed much, much higher.   HALF the Wall Street banks have said they WILL NOT lend to oil and gas companies.  University and lots of stock fund managers are saying for "moral" reasons they will NOT invest in oil and gas stocks.  The you have current administration politics.  Then you have oil and gas companies shifting THEIR investments into green energy projects.

WOW....that means MUCH, MUCH higher prices for gas and diesel in the near future.  

Not selling our BP stock, but I do wish they would invest more in oil and gas exploration than charging stations for EV's.

 

But you didnt mention how we got here. From November 2019 to August 2020 the number of oil drilling rigs operating in the USA dropped by over 700 from about 880 in November 2019 to only about 150 in August 2020. You cant produce oil if you are not drilling for it.
Fortunately, the number if oil drilling rigs in the USA is back up over 500 and climbing, but just not fast enough as oil companies are returning much of the new huge profits to shareholders in the form of dividends instead of drilling for more oil.

[Vladimir]

6 minutes ago, pjstough said:

But you didnt mention how we got here. From November 2019 to August 2020 the number of oil drilling rigs operating in the USA dropped by over 700 from about 880 in November 2019 to only about 150 in August 2020. You cant produce oil if you are not drilling for it.
Fortunately, the number if oil drilling rigs in the USA is back up over 500 and climbing, but just not fast enough as oil companies are returning much of the new huge profits to shareholders in the form of dividends instead of drilling for more oil.

Yes, I did....the pandemic dropped drilling, just like the next recession will again. 

It appears that the new drilling rigs are frackers and small time operators.  That will help, but I doubt it will make up for the drop in big oil exploration.

BTW...economists really need to change the definition of a recession.  Two quarterly declines in GDP is so yesterday.  We are STILL recovering from the pandemic recession, more than 1.6 MILLION jobs still missing.  The difference was that during the "pandemic recession" government poured money into the economy, particularly middle class Americans, which NEVER done in previous recessions.

The oil companies are NOT returning the "new huge profits" to shareholders at this time.  The BP dividend was cut in HALF during the pandemic.  It has not been raised since them.  

My biggest regret was not selling BP when it peaked at 70.  Twenty years later it is selling at 30.  So much for oil company profits!!!

[bruce t]

Something is very wrong when the US domestic market all but quits oil drilling while at the same time oil is imported from Russia. 

Company boards around the world are making green statements. Yet it's business as usual.

When profits from oil exceed profits from green energy the truth will be there for all to see. They will chase the profits before virtue signalling. 

[Kirk W]

I rather doubt that there will be any agreement on the subject here unless we can find some way to all share the same crystal ball! 🤪

[rickeieio]

Wise words Kirk.  There seems the emotion/fact ratio gets askew in times like this.  The pricing structure is more complicated than most folks realize.  The mechanics of drilling/pumping/distillation/etc are also far beyond what's been thrown about here.

Like everything else in life, people tend to complain the most about the things they understand the least.  And yes, I've been guilty too.