What Are The Chances One Or More Legacy Automakers Will Fail?

[docj]

On 9/3/2019 at 6:03 PM, jcussen said:

Not for everybody, but perfect for me. Don't really give a damm about the green thing, just easier for me and at $50000 about the same as a small Audi or BMW or a nice GMC pickup and with a MPGe of 100, what's not to like?

I'm glad this works for you.  Some of us aren't able or willing to pay that much for a vehicle.

[jcussen]

16 minutes ago, docj said:

I'm glad this works for you.  Some of us aren't able or willing to pay that much for a vehicle.

Seems a lot on this forum spend far more than $50000 on their motorhomes, tow vehicles, 5th wheels and trailers. Like I said, about the price of a new 1/2 ton pickup, and when you consider your fuel costs will be less than of 20% of that of new pickup, actually a pretty good deal. I am getting too old to work on cars anymore, and that 8 yr 120000 mile warranty is pretty attractive. But to each his own.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2018/10/04/pickup-truck-prices-vehicles/1455588002/

[docj]

19 minutes ago, jcussen said:

Seems a lot on this forum spend far more than $50000 on their motorhomes, tow vehicles, 5th wheels and trailers. Like I said, about the price of a new 1/2 ton pickup, and when you consider your fuel costs will be less than of 20% of that of new pickup,

The cost of a MH has nothing to do with the cost of a toad to tow behind it.  Neither does the cost of a pickup truck to tow a trailer or 5th wheel.  I have a Honda CR-V that I tow behind my MH.  It does everything I need and it didn't cost anywhere near $50k.  

If you can afford $50k for a vehicle that, most likely, can't be flat-towed behind a MH that's great, but don't try to make it sound as if the rest of us have the wherewithal  to do the same or that we consider it a sensible choice even if we did.

[jcussen]

Docj, If you had read my complete post, you would have seen I already have a toad, matter of fact a $5000 Honda CRV.  The Tesla in not suitable as a toad unless on a trailer. My choice was to buy a used MH and a SUV and a Tesla, Obviously not your choice. But that's fine by me. Would not presume to tell you what to do, and am not sure why you are offended by what I do? Are you also offended by people that buy $500000 motorhomes when they could get by with a $25000 motorhome?

[docj]

No, my point was that you equated buying a Tesla to buying an Audi or BMW.  There's nothing wrong with buying luxury cars if you can afford to do so.   Up to that point the discussion had been relative to the rationale for buying a Tesla.  You stated that you didn't buy one for any particular environmental reason but, rather, because you viewed it as an acceptable luxury vehicle choice. 

The intent of my post was to note that if a Tesla couldn't be rationalized on an environmental or cost effectiveness basis, then I suspect quite a few of us on this forum will take a pass since buying luxury cars just for the sake of having them is something we no longer bother to do.  You should buy whatever car you wish and can afford.

[jcussen]

Well I guess any  AUDI or BMW cannot be rationalized. Have had Audi, Bmw's and Porsches my entire life, and at this particular point, believe a Tesla is the best bang for the buck for a sporty car regardless of its method of propulsion. Trying to explain its attributes, to someone who has never driven one is difficult.

As far as "quite a few of us on the forum will take a pass at buying luxury cars just for the sake of having them is something  we no longer bother to do", why do I see so many Cadillac and Lincoln and $50 k jeep toads out there? If what you say is true, everyone would be towing Toyota Corolla's.Think the same applies to luxury motorhomes, I see a lot of very expensive coaches out there.

I understand  the economic side though, many are on fixed budgets, I am 72 and if I live to 90, will probably regret buying that $50000 car.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 8, 2019 by jcussen

[RV_]

jcussen, I don't think I will regret buying one at any time. As my wife recently commented about buying and moving to a high priced area, there's no satisfaction to being one of the wealthier corpses in the cemetery.

There is absolutely zero ROI on a whole house backup generators, but the look we give each other when it kicks in? Priceless!

It needs oil changes, filters, a new battery every three years, antifreeze etc. Soon no more just silent fast power:

It is great to see someone post here who is experienced with actually owning a Tesla, or any BEV, let alone look into the warranty and actual owner comments. I have also owned whole house backup generators here, first a Generac air cooled 15kw using propane. I had to buy a 200 gallon or so new tank which looked ugly. I have city utilities including up to a gig Internet and city natural gas etc. So I finally sold the propane tank and traded in the small air cooled one, for a water cooled 25kw Generac  running natural gas. It has a four cylinder Mitsubishi engine. All our appliances: water heater, furnace, range and oven, dryer are gas too here, and in Colorado. Two Tesla PowerWalls (PW) cost roughly the same installed as a 25kw Natural Gas generator. https://www.tesla.com/powerwall

Moving to 2 Tesla PWs will run all of our home demand in Colorado for the usual city power outages. Once we are sure we are staying we will install enough solar to keep them charged, and run the house without the grid. They switch as fast as the UPS' I use for my computer systems. no worrying about brown outs or the gas bill. And they'll charge my Tesla at night as well as run the house during outages. I have read where the car itself can be tied into the house as backup but I wasn't interested in that at the time.   

What does float my boat is the fact that across all the Tesla car line, each has a max of 20 moving parts: https://www.bing.com/search?q=how+many+moving+parts+in+a+Tesla&pc=MOZI&form=MOZLBR

And there are no hot exhaust pipes, exhaust manifolds, hot exploding fuels, oil pumps, air intakes, air filters, no oil or oil filters, No alternators or O2 or other gas sensors, and no toxic fumes from combusting carbon. No ignition system, no fuel injection or carburetor systems. no spark plugs, plug wires or turbos, no muffler or catalytic convertor.

The ICE engine alone has hundreds of moving parts: https://www.bing.com/search?q=how+many+moving+parts+in+a+gasoline+car&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=how+many+moving+parts+in+a+gasoline+car&sc=2-39&sk=&cvid=9076D595DE1D49A19340D6979EC0AAE6

If you don't like Tesla and their past CEO Elon Musk, and you know of another alternative to their PW that is cheaper, or better, or both by all means post a link here. I would go with the best bang for my buck.

 

 

[jcussen]

Just a side note, Tesla has sold 720,000 cars since 2012. The Tesla Model 3 is now the best selling luxury car in the United States. I may be dumb for buying one, but glad I have company.

BTW I don't drive my EV much. [just around town] and I charge it from the solar panels on my coach, not much, but enough to give me about 20 solar powered miles a day. More than enough to run errands, if I want to go farther, will of course have to plug it in. As I have said, not for everybody, but works good for me.

 

[RV_]

jcussen, I wouldn't drive mine much either. Like you just around town, but also on any trips because they tell us where the next charger is in range. I've had my new 2019 Forester since March and have barely put 2600 miles on it. I would venture we will likely have many friends visit us to ski, hunt, or try some legal edibles. I'll put the first trip on it when I drive it to Colorado after the house sells (yes we're getting offers!)

I've owned three large Mercedes in the early 90s and a BMW 525i I bought used in Germany with the high speed autobahn "Bischoffen Prep" Very long legs, I had it up to ~ 145mph on the autobahn back when it had no speed limit. Had my 911 Targa here in the 80s, as well as my Little Red Truck. I mostly stuck with AWD like our Trooper in the 90s, a Brat we had in 1978-1981 when I was assigned to the USAF Academy the first time we lived in "The Springs."

Here's an article about where folks get those myths. Some may wake up one day, others can't. So don't be too hard on them.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/10/ev-boom-in-norway-is-a-smug-national-fraud-according-to-rt/?utm_source=CleanTechnica+News&utm_campaign=e4b16d797b-Daily+Email+CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b9b83ee7eb-e4b16d797b-331970081

 

[RV_]

BTW, the above post link takes you to a Clean Technika article by one of my favorite writers on the EV scene, Steve Hanley. His article has links to the articles the Koch brothers among other oil interests inspired. So both the oil articles and EV articles are both presented to show how nuts they are. Steve's articles have links to sources, not just conjecture or hearsay. If anyone here fancies themselves a researcher, follow the link from the Ames laboratory's sale of the patent for magnetic refrigeration in 1998. The buyer of it sure is hidden as the buyer buried it. If/when they get them to room temp operation the cost of refrigeration including Air Conditioning goes from the cost of starting running the compressors large and small, to the cost of running a fan motor. Please post links if you disagree. <grin>

 

Edited January 11, 2020 by RV_

[RV_]

Check this out! It's already in production! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-23/elon-musk-opened-tesla-s-shanghai-gigafactory-in-just-168-days

 

[Vladimir]

On 9/6/2019 at 12:16 PM, Sehc said:

All very interesting. The future is electric. No getting around that. We will clean up our act, or the world will go on without humans. As far as clean electric energy, one big pile is easier to clean than millions of small ones.

I don’t agree....but the original question was “which of the American legacy car manufacturers will fail”.

I believe GM has failed TWICE and both times has been bailed out by the Federal government. I bought one GM vehicle and inherited two others....NEVER AGAIN. So yep, one of these days the the Federal government will let GM go under.

Fiat-Chrysler....I think they have ALSO been bailed out by the Federal government TWICE.  Really an awful company, making awful vehicles, EXCEPT for the RAM truck division. That will survive.

Ford??...I don’t know. Never owned a Ford vehicle in my life.  Never bought one, but then again I am probably not the typical car buyer.

Electric vehicles are fine for urban areas. There is a definite market for them.  As soon, as one has a range of 200 miles (in mountain terrain) and around 20,000 dollars I will buy it!!

But I will ALWAYS own a large diesel truck and maybe a decent sized SUV will towing capacity.

So that leaves that cheap, electric vehicle for the third car.....and depending on how handy it becomes...it might be a shared vehicle with a per mileage charge.

BTW...IF I stay in Wenatchee with .027 cent electrical rate I would love a electrical car with a  200 mile range.  IF I move to Arizona with a .15 cent electrical rate I probably will be more skeptical.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Vladimir

[whj469]

Only two left, GM and Ford.

[edatlanta]

What will happen when the "Green Groups" figure out that millions of new electric cars contain batteries, and more than 1 per car,  with lots and lots of foul chemicals that will have to be recycled/disposed of in some manner.  And let's not forget as lead acid batteries charge they produce hydrogen gas which is explosive in the right concentrations.

There is no free ride or quick easy answer.  One problem being solved creates others.

[Striper]

9 minutes ago, edatlanta said:

What will happen when the "Green Groups" figure out that millions of new electric cars contain batteries, and more than 1 per car,  with lots and lots of foul chemicals that will have to be recycled/disposed of in some manner.  And let's not forget as lead acid batteries charge they produce hydrogen gas which is explosive in the right concentrations.

There is no free ride or quick easy answer.  One problem being solved creates others.

And the electricity to charge them has to come from somewhere.  Most likely from a Coal Fired Power Plant.  Bottom line is there ain't no free ride.

Joe

[Big Rick]

Saw an article that Germany is facing a “crisis” in the next year or so as the wind turbines they have been using are nearing end of life. The materials used to build them are not recyclable and they don’t know what to do with them.

[RV_]

On 11/19/2019 at 4:38 AM, edatlanta said:

What will happen when the "Green Groups" figure out that millions of new electric cars contain batteries, and more than 1 per car,  with lots and lots of foul chemicals that will have to be recycled/disposed of in some manner.  And let's not forget as lead acid batteries charge they produce hydrogen gas which is explosive in the right concentrations.

There is no free ride or quick easy answer.  One problem being solved creates others.

Ed,

Lead Acid Batteries.??? None of the modern electric vehicles use any lead acid batteries,  or produce gases when charging like the lead acid batteries for gas and diesel starter batteries.. They use banks of Li-ion batteries just like your cell phones, iPads and Surface tablets and laptops. today they can recycle 90% of the batteries for reuse and you can check out several methods on this page: https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=lithium+ion+battery+recycling&qpvt=lithium+ion+battery+re%3aycling&FORM=IGRE 

Please show me any current electric vehicles that use lead acid batteries. And I mean modern passenger highway capable EVs, not the clown cars of 50 years ago

Vlad,

The range for some of the Tesla model 3 have been almost 350 miles per charge. https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-epa-rating-334-miles-long-range/

They're very popular here in Colorado. We have some mountains too.

I suggest y'all go test drive a Tesla. Put some hands on to see yourselves. Trust me, you won't be thinking the same after. I have met some folks who are afraid to even drive them, like they will harm them by the knowledge. They run from the idea! Put your premises to the test. It isn't fake or exaggerated at all. But then, I've driven them, the Leaf, and the Mitsubishi. The Tesla pickup will be unveiled next week. I can't wait.

Edited January 11, 2020 by RV_

[noteven]

I booked a Lyft ride and it was a Tesla! OMG!

I held my breath at first just so I didn’t lose the air out of my lungs.

The owner was like super nice? 

He didn’t use the cruise function and worked the sewing machine pedal on the “1” of a nice 1-2-3 waltz time. Application of torques to the road is instant so the neck got a work out. 

We didn’t even run out of battery on a like 50 mile trip! 

Fanciest golf car I ever rode in. 

Just think of a skateboard chassis used to make a kinda Sprinter size 4wd camper with all the things...