When do you plan to travel?

[agesilaus]

47 minutes ago, docj said:

Speaking of unsubstantiated claims, you can start with providing references for these.  The one thing I recall about sunlight was that concentrated UV light on surfaces could kill the virus, but that's a lot different from claiming that it only last a minute or two in the sunlight. 

Quote

Instead of sheltering in place, maybe we should all be outside. In an exclusive report on NBC News, a U.S. government scientist said the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) appears to die quickly in direct sunlight, both in the air and on surfaces, but not necessarily on the skin.

In an exclusive interview, Paul Dabisch, a senior research scientist at the Department of Homeland Security’s biodefense research laboratory, said that initial lab tests show sunlight, higher temperatures and humidity are hurdles for the survival of the coronavirus.

“What we have found so far is that sunlight seems to be very detrimental to the virus,” Dabisch explained. “And so within minutes, the majority of the virus is inactivated on surfaces and in the air in direct sunlight.”

47 minutes ago, docj said:

NBC

Quote

The CDC defines 6 feet as how far coughing can spread the virus. How long the close contact lasts can also be important. Prolonged close contact is defined as more that 10 minutes. Close contact includes kissing, hugging or sharing eating and drinking utensils. It also includes close conversations. Direct contact with secretions with a person with COVID-19 is also close contact. Includes being in the same childcare room, classroom or carpool. These exposures are usually lower risk than living with an infected person.

• In Same Building - Low Risk Exposure. Being in the same school, place or worship, workplace or building carries a small risk for exposure.
• In Same City - Low Risk Exposure. Living in or traveling from a city or country where there is major community spread of COVID-19, also carries a small risk. These "hot spots" are identified by the CDC at Coronavirus. Outdoor contacts are much safer than indoor contacts.

 

Quote

Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases. The first salient feature of the 318 identified outbreaks that involved three or more cases is that they all occurred in indoor environments. Although this finding was expected, its significance has not been well recognised by the community and by policy makers. Indoors is where our lives and work are in modern civilisation. The transmission of respiratory infections such as SARS-CoV-2 from the infected to the susceptible is an indoor phenomenon.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-transmission-chinese-study-shows-covid-more-likely-spread-indoors/

 

Quote

Studies show that you're less likely to contract COVID-19 if you're out in the open air at a safe distance from others, versus being stuck indoors where it's more easily spread.

Quote

 

The sun

 

That's enough for me feel free to look up the rest yourself these are easily found.

[docj]

25 minutes ago, agesilaus said:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-transmission-chinese-study-shows-covid-more-likely-spread-indoors/

 

The sun

 

That's enough for me feel free to look up the rest yourself these are easily found.

What you're doing is engaging in Aristotelian deductive reasoning which is how many people used to think before the scientific method (inductive reasoning) was introduced.  With deductive logic you start with a hypothesis and look for all the evidence that supports the hypothesis but you don't bother with observations that don't support it.  That's the reverse of what is done in inductive reasoning where you start with a hypothesis and look for any observations that contradict it.  If none are found then hypothesis remains valid.

I'm not going to bother going through your post in detail.  What you've done is use individual observations as if they constitute proof of your positions.  These include things that are clearly labeled as "preliminary".  None of those are "facts"; they are simply individual observations most of which haven't yet been corroborated.

Don't bother to dig up more "facts" to rebut my comments. You clearly have your mind made up as to the direction you wish to go and that's fine as long as you don't put anyone I care about at risk.  

[Barbaraok]

1 hour ago, SOD said:

Gee folks, I thought this forum was where we could voice an "opinion" which is what I did. I started this by saying "we all have to make our decisions" now I've been told to stay away from rockport, and I'm not qualified to have an opinion. Relax, stress has killed more people than this virus has, live life the way you want to and I'll live mine

 

 

You get to makes decisions as long as those don’t endanger others.  Wearing a 😷 is required so we don’t infect others.   We have no idea how many people have died from the virus,  but few die from just stress.   
 

Can you tell me why you can’t wear a mask when in public places and stay 6 feet away from others?    

[agesilaus]

56 minutes ago, docj said:

What you're doing is engaging in Aristotelian deductive reasoning which is how many people used to think before the scientific method (inductive reasoning) was introduced.  With deductive logic you start with a hypothesis and look for all the evidence that supports the hypothesis but you don't bother with observations that don't support it.  That's the reverse of what is done in inductive reasoning where you start with a hypothesis and look for any observations that contradict it.  If none are found then hypothesis remains valid.

I'm not going to bother going through your post in detail.  What you've done is use individual observations as if they constitute proof of your positions.  These include things that are clearly labeled as "preliminary".  None of those are "facts"; they are simply individual observations most of which haven't yet been corroborated.

Don't bother to dig up more "facts" to rebut my comments. You clearly have your mind made up as to the direction you wish to go and that's fine as long as you don't put anyone I care about at risk.  

OK let me point out I was a Laboratory Technical Manager who had the EPA breathing down my neck for many years. I am probably much more familiar with using statistics to 'prove' something than you are. The point is that no claims by either side have been definitively 'proved', the data is just not there and most likely won't be there until this plague is over and done with.

So all you can do is pick your set of 'facts' and go with them. As for not bothering to disprove my statements, that is the typical response from your side of the issue. And it means you cannot disprove them but want to claim that doing so is beneath you. Your side almost never rebuts arguments with actual data. 

[Pappy Yokum]

17 minutes ago, agesilaus said:

OK let me point out I was a Laboratory Technical Manager who had the EPA breathing down my neck for many years. I am probably much more familiar with using statistics to 'prove' something than you are. The point is that no claims by either side have been definitively 'proved', the data is just not there and most likely won't be there until this plague is over and done with.

So all you can do is pick your set of 'facts' and go with them. As for not bothering to disprove my statements, that is the typical response from your side of the issue. And it means you cannot disprove them but want to claim that doing so is beneath you. Your side almost never rebuts arguments with actual data. 

 

Your qualifications for statements of "facts" and peeing contests are absolutely exemplary!

Hoisted by one's own petard would certainly be another.

🤣

 

[SOD]

Will this is my last Post, I never said I didn't wear a mask not stay 6' from others when in public. I do so, so other people feel comfortable. What I said, was I wasn't sitting home, waiting for someone to tell me when it's ok to travel!

[agesilaus]

Quote

Your qualifications for statements of "facts" and peeing contests are absolutely exemplary!

Hoisted by one's own petard would certainly be another.

Ah yes we have moved on to another of Alinsky's rules: "Ridicule is man's most potent weapon."

Try ad hominum when all else fails.

 

[docj]

1 hour ago, agesilaus said:

So all you can do is pick your set of 'facts' and go with them

I think you continue to miss the point.  You can't "pick a set of facts."  If the data is truly not there then there are no facts to be had.  You can't cherry pick observations and then contend they represent facts.

In the words of Daniel Patrick Moynihan, "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.:

Edited May 9, 2020 by docj

[Barbaraok]

1 hour ago, agesilaus said:

OK let me point out I was a Laboratory Technical Manager who had the EPA breathing down my neck for many years. I am probably much more familiar with using statistics to 'prove' something than you are. The point is that no claims by either side have been definitively 'proved', the data is just not there and most likely won't be there until this plague is over and done with.

So all you can do is pick your set of 'facts' and go with them. As for not bothering to disprove my statements, that is the typical response from your side of the issue. And it means you cannot disprove them but want to claim that doing so is beneath you. Your side almost never rebuts arguments with actual data. 

So you DiffyQ?  I ran EH&S departments in universities, dealt with EPA, OSHA, DOT, etc.   MS in ChemEng,  so tell me you know more about stats that either Joel or I do?

There is a lot we don’t know yet, but MOST transmission is via droplets from infected people to others.   You can be infected and shedding and not know it.   So it behooves everyone to act like they could be a spreader and do everything when out in public NOT to spread disease.  Why is this so hard to comprehend?

And no data, we’re almost to 80K dead in 8 weeks.  IT IS SPREADING!

 

[docj]

2 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

So you DiffyQ?  I ran EH&S departments in universities, dealt with EPA, OSHA, DOT, etc.   MS in ChemEng,  so tell me you know more about stats that either Joel or I do?

Barbara, I'll gladly defer to your knowledge of statistics. I have a Ph.D. in physics, but statistics was never a favorite subject. 😁

I used to be able to handle diffyyq and integral calc but that was a long time ago!

[Dollytrolley]

 

Well I have sat back waiting a bit to chime into this group…...you see in my ….” declining years I seem to become a bit more of a wimpy than I was in my “Save-the-world-youth”…….this discussion seems to have a fairly “sharp edge” at times……..

 

So…..

 

In late December last year I answered a call from a OLD doctor that I used to fly to VERY remote places where he would conduct medical research….. much of the time studying local infections and native populations.

 

This doc minced no small talk and ask, “where are you”?

 

I said “ I am at out winter camp at Last Chance Peak just East of Death Valley”.

 

Doc said “Listen UP, there is a pandemic if epic portions that will NOT be mitigated easily so hunker down where you are and STAY AWAY FROM EVERYONE…….PERIOD…….I will call you when it makes sense to go out again”

 

So……..we locked the gate and planted a large garden in one of the Hottest places on earth and staying in the shade in the heat of the day……

 

It seems that the news indicates that a LOT of folks are going crazy in the lock down and I could understand that to a point.

 

IF by chance you are bored and want a challenge that will absolutely keep you VERY busy…...Try cobbling up a summer garden on the edge of Death Valley…...Trust me YOU WILL BE BUSY and not all of the seedlings will make it……….heck a guy down the road told us that the devil winters next door to him and the Devil left last Thursday at 101f muttering that hell was cooler……

 

Anyway, here we are and it WILL get hotter for sure and likely some more garden plants will get brown and blow away but hey that is farming right?

 

So now I will hazard a bit of flack by making a few comments about……..Experts…..Opinions…..Facts….and Unknowns………and…...Situational Awareness…….

 

“Experts” come in all kinds of sizes and flavors now that the internet has opened up the job of being a “Expert” to almost anyone with a internet connection.

 

I must say I am stunned how many “Medical / Biological EXPERTS” have ALL of their “Training originating from the internet”…….

 

Doc had to get by with years and years at Yale, Harvard, Stanford…….just imagine how inferior he must feel not having the internet to get him “elevated knowledge base’ that the average internet user has these days.

 

You see many moons ago I WAS in Charge of saving the WORLD …….I was hot stuff…You see I WAS a EXPERT before the internet……..sorta.

 

In the real world I was a fair pilot most of the time and good enough to retire from flying without killing myself or others and so upon retirement I can now claim to be a expert pilot in FACT.

 

The other thing that the internet has “gifted” us with a LOT of FACTS that are actually OPINIONS dressed up to look like FACTS often thrown about by folks who may claim to be EXPERTS when they are NOT….

 

All this now leads up to …….. Situational Awareness & Unknowns……..

 

When a person first learns to fly often they seek a private pilots license or sport license with fairly limited training and limitations related to flight operations.

 

If one decides to seek to become a professional pilot the training, testing, and skill levels tend to become more elevated as flight operations become more complex.

 

One of the never ending professional pilot training subjects that is always stressed is the concept of Situational Awareness (S A) .

 

The formal definition of SA is broken down into three segments:

 

1. Perception of the elements in the environment.

 

2. Comprehension of the situation.

 

3. Projection of future status.

 

Inadequate Situation Awareness has been identified as one of the primary factors in accidents attributed to human error.

 

You see Situational Awareness is NOT an exact science and it has to deal with a lot of unknowns but history has proven that Situational Awareness has a lot of merit.

 

Flying Doc around was a SERIOUS job with plenty dangerous conditions that were VERY difficult to mitigate.

 

In Docs mindset by FAR, the largest risk was that of PANDEMIC…….

 

You see Doc KNEW for a FACT that NONE of the remote tribal members had ANY IMMUNITY to ANY of the conditions that he or I could INFECT these tribal members with, and that IF we were to pass an outside-world infection into the tribe it would ALMOST CERTAINLY RESULT IN EXTINCTION of the tribe…...Chilling…….

 

Doc took intense precautions to limit the infection risks to tribe members and I was allowed NOT ANY CONTACT WHATSOEVER with tribal members.

 

Doc loved to fly and was cursed as a marginal pilot at best, but I would let him fly as much as he desired but here is the odd thing…….if the weather became a lit bit marginal or operations became complex he would simply say “You have the airplane”…...you see Doc’s intense medical training utilized Situation Awareness in EVERY action he took. Doc’s Perception told him that elements in the environment were changing. Doc Comprehended that the situation was approaching his limitations of flight operations. Doc KNEW that it was time to pass control of the aircraft back to me since his Projection of the near future status of the aircraft operation might exceed his flight limitations.

 

The vast majority of the population of the U S A has NO Situational Awareness Training Whatsoever so the critical steps to understand the methods needed to be able to understand the fatal nature of this pandemic and the methods needed to deal with the pandemic are missing from the public national response to the pandemic.

 

History does not treat populations well at all that ……...Ignore Situational Awareness…….

 

Drive on………..Once your Situational Awareness PROVES with actual FACTS that it is safe…….

[Zulu]

10 hours ago, agesilaus said:

The point is that no claims by either side have been definitively 'proved', the data is just not there and most likely won't be there until this plague is over and done with.

Ok. From this and other posts you've made, you seem to think that the reaction to Covid-19 was (is) way out of proportion to the disease itself.

If this is so, what would you have done (or do) differently? (Given, of course, the benefits of hindsight)

[agesilaus]

Quote

If this is so, what would you have done (or do) differently? (Given, of course, the benefits of hindsight)

1) Close the airports in the NYC and surrounding area. Do the same for any other high incidence areas. Discourage in any way possible travel from those areas.

2) Block all foreign incoming travel, especially from China. If US citizens wish to return require them to stay in a quarantine facility for 30 days and only allow them to exit if they test negative.

3) Initiate home detention for only high incidence areas. For NY that would be the NYC and surrounding areas leaving upstate NY free. For FL the Dade to Palm Beach areas leaving the rest of the state open. However step one should reduce the problem in southeast FL. Do the same in other states.

4) Leave parks open as much as possible, if closure needed on a case by case basis then just close the buildings and eliminate ranger tours and such. Allow camping in self contained campers only. Encourage outdoor activities, weather permitting.

5) Follow the Florida plan for nursing and other old age homes. Remove any people who test positive and are symptomatic to hospitals, limit visitation and require a negative test for those who do, provide ppe to workers in those places. Block transfer of positive patients to the nursing homes. Do the same for jails and prisons, reduce visitation, test any new inhabitants and keep the symptomatic in isolated facilities. Provide ppe and testing for workers.

6) Prioritize bringing essential production back into the US. Items such as PPE, essential medical equipment and medication should be produced in country.

That's just off the top of my head I'm sure there are others I'm not thinking of at the moment.

 

[docj]

6 minutes ago, agesilaus said:

2) Block all foreign incoming travel, especially from China. If US citizens wish to return require them to stay in a quarantine facility for 30 days and only allow them to exit if they test negative.

FWIW genetic analysis of virus samples from all over the US have conclusively shown that most of it is a strain that got here from Europe not Asia.  That's why Italy was such a hotspot.  China may have been where it first was noticed in large numbers, but Asia wasn't the principal transmission route to the US.

[agesilaus]

I have a question for the math literate among you:

1) Social distancing was initially justified by the desire to reduce the burden on hospital facilities. The idea was to flatten the curve of new symptomatic patients needing hospital care by pushing the curve peak to the right (of the patient number vs time curve) and reducing the peak height. However the curve when integrated would maintain the same number of symptomatic patients it would just stretch out the curve.

2) There would still be the same number of sick people in other words it never claimed to prevent infection. And social distancing did not work:

Quote

The majority of recently hospitalized coronavirus patients in New York are people who have followed the precaution of staying home, Gov. Cuomo said Wednesday.

The governor said it was “shocking” that 66% of new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who are either retired or unemployed and not commuting to work on a regular basis.

NYDN

3) There never was a rush of patients into hospitals, emergency constructed temp hospitals and hospital ships sat empty. There is a glut of respirators there never was a shortage.

4) So since the goal of social distancing has been achived why do we still continue social distancing?

Edited May 10, 2020 by agesilaus

[agesilaus]

5 minutes ago, docj said:

FWIW genetic analysis of virus samples from all over the US have conclusively shown that most of it is a strain that got here from Europe not Asia.  That's why Italy was such a hotspot.  China may have been where it first was noticed in large numbers, but Asia wasn't the principal transmission route to the US.

That's why I said BLOCK ALL INCOMING FOREIGN TRAVEL

[Barbaraok]

Agesilaus, did you think repeating several lines over and over would somehow strengthen your post?   

Try telling those who work in NYC hospitals that there was never a shortage of ventilators, that there was never a rush of patients, that those bodies in refrigerator trucks at the back of hospitals didn't exist, etc.    We all saw it with our own eyes.  And the medical community learned a few procedures that have helped to get more patients to recovery, like proning.   

Staying home and not working does not mean that they were able to stay apart from people who were carrying the disease.  NYC is HIGH DENSITY housing, so one person in a 300 unit apartment building, using the elevator, laundry rooms, mail room, can leave virus all over the place, not to mentioning riding up and down the elevator with other people.   And a lot of people who didn't leave their home, also had relatives that came an checked on them, etc.   

Physical distancing lessens the chance of particles coming at you, not 100% guarantees they won't.  Turns out that the latest research shows it should be 9 ft.  But if the person wears a mask, then the cough/sneeze, is mainly trapped in the mask and goes upward and only goes out about 2-3 feet.   So the combination works best.    It is all about lessening the chance of becoming infected.    I realize that you don't worry if you catch it.  But some of us still have things we want to do, places we want to go, and we don't want to die.   Dave is now 8 weeks post quadruple bypass, do you have any idea what would happen to him if he caught it?   He spent a week in ICU just trying to recover after the surgery.    He doesn't go anywhere but to the physicians' offices (heart check and blood draw).   But I still have to shop.    So, people not wearing a mask make my risk of exposure/contracting the disease higher, which increases his risk of dying.

I will ask again.  What is so hard about staying 6 ft away from people (using one-way aisles in stores) and wearing a mask when out in public?   If everyone does it, we can help keep the numbers of people with the disease low and get things started back to normal.   70+ people who attended the 'anti mask, anti physical distancing' rally in Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago have now tested positive for the virus.   Wonder how many others they have infected, and how many those people have infected ...........

 

[docj]

22 minutes ago, agesilaus said:

4) So since the goal of social distancing has been achived why do we still continue social distancing?

One of the features of the COVID tracking map created by the State of TX breaks the state into hospital emergency "districts" and provides data on the number of available hospital and ICU beds in each district.  What's very revealing about that is that there simply isn't all that much ICU capacity outside of the major metro areas.  It's sized to mee the normal load but a significant increase, as would result from an increase in COVID patients would rapidly outstrip the capability.

We live in the metro area of a TX city with a total population of ~500k.  It's doing Ok with a COVID count of ~120 that is increasingly slowly enough that the number of discharged patients is balancing new admissions.  But maintaining that balance will require continued social distancing IMO.  We're currently experiencing an increase in the number of cases that some attribute to gatherings of people that took place during the Easter weekend.  In another couple of weeks we'll be able to see if relaxation of the TX social distancing rules this weekend will cause any additional increases.

Until such time as either a vaccine or an effective antiviral drug are available, I don't see any way for the society in general to return to anything approaching the "old normal".   Even if you aren't in a "high risk" group, would you be comfortable being packed into crowded stadium to watch football, a NASCAR race or anything else? I know I wouldn't be.  Even if you take the position that you are unlikely to die from the virus, are you willing to take a chance at getting, potentially, rather sick as the outcome of enjoying a day's outing?  Who knows, that might be a whole new marketing approach--"come visit our [amusement park, stadium, whatever] and get two free weeks at our onsite hospital, if you need it!"  Boy, I bet that would be a big draw!  😁

Edited May 10, 2020 by docj

[agesilaus]

So this is just based on your feeling, why make every one else suffer because you feel a certain way?

[docj]

Just now, agesilaus said:

So this is just based on your feeling, why make every one else suffer because you feel a certain way?

Are you "suffering" because you are asked to wear a face covering?

Are you suffering if tables at restaurants are spaced ~6 feet apart?

Are you suffering if crowd size at sporting events is restricted to allow for space between attendees?

Are you personally suffering if other people choose not to attend sporting events, go to restaurants, etc?

Unless you are seriously lacking in empathy for the health of others I can't see why your answers to the above questions would be anything other than "NO"

[agesilaus]

5 minutes ago, docj said:

Are you "suffering" because you are asked to wear a face covering?

"

As coronavirus fears mount in the United States, experts warn that face masks won’t help most people avoid the virus — and they may actually increase the risk of getting it.

“The average healthy person does not need to have a mask, and they shouldn’t be wearing masks,” says Dr. Eli Perencevich, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at the University of Iowa’s College of Medicine, according to Forbes."

SacBee

I personally find that wearing an improvised face mask interferes with breathing. My wife has asthma and it is worse for her. I also have a beard which makes wearing even a proper mask useless.

Are you suffering if tables at restaurants are spaced ~6 feet apart?

No because they aren't allowing in resturant dining in this county.

Are you suffering if crowd size at sporting events is restricted to allow for space between attendees?

Don't go and so don't care but once again that's not allowed here.

Are you personally suffering if other people choose not to attend sporting events, go to restaurants, etc?

No and they do not suffer if I choose to do so. But nambyism is rampant in that group.

5 minutes ago, docj said:

Unless you are seriously lacking in empathy for the health of others I can't see why your answers to the above questions would be anything other than "NO"

So it's "do as I say or else", typical for your side.

[docj]

1 hour ago, agesilaus said:

So it's "do as I say or else", typical for your side.

The problem with our society is that it is so polarized that everything is evaluated in terms of "sides".  The merits of an argument are irrelevant.

At this point I've given up bothering to change people's minds.  IMO "social Darwinism" will largely determine the outcome.  Those who choose to venture out without face coverings will either have the same (or better) outcomes as those who don't or the outcomes will be worse.  Only  time will tell.  

Edited May 10, 2020 by docj

[trostberg]

Just hope that those who choose not to wear a mask or whatever other guidance is requested when out in public at least respect the business right to make that request.    I am hearing about violent behavior, employees refusing to come to work and the business ends up closing again because of the behavior of their customers.

Requesting no shoes no shirt no service didn't get everyone so angry

Edited May 10, 2020 by trostberg

[docj]

37 minutes ago, trostberg said:

Requesting no shoes no shirt no service didn't get everyone so angry

I've wondered about that also.  But I don't think we weren't as badly polarized at that time. Sure, some of that "no shoes...." stuff was directed at "hippies" but it was also directed at any other people who chose to go out without shoes or shirts.  They  weren't necessarily judged to be "liberals" or "conservatives."

[Randyretired]

Masks pretty well sum up how desperate we are to control this virus.  We are asking or in some cases demanding that untrained people wear masks of unknown origin and made of random material by whomever and we call that safe?  We wear masks whenever we are around anyone else but it certainly doesn't seem safe to me.  We are told that these masks do not protect the person wearing it because the virus will just pass through it but we believe it block the virus going out?  Many maybe most of the masks I see don't even fit tight and there are holes that would be like a highway for air and droplets to pass.  Certainly it may slow it down a little like shooting water through a screen but it doesn't  make me feel safe.  We are at risk so we are staying hidden as much as possible.