What Stock Would You Buy?

RV_ · February 16, 2016

Just wondering what stocks you covet, but think have maxed out, but would buy if the price dropped by half. I mean folks if you had $5k-$50k on hand for a buy opportunity during a panic selloff, and don't have to sell at a loss to buy them. If you were setting up for a buy opportunity, what stock/s would you be watching?

Last time I used my whole income for USAA funds 2008/9 and then my residual liquid for Tesla in 2010. (My home and acreage were paid off in the first couple of years we had it, so we can live just fine on my retirement and now SS.)

People acted like we were nuts buying when they were selling. Oh well. No one gains or loses money until they sell.

Me, it would be a SpaceX IPO, or more Tesla. (No surprise there)

mkc · February 16, 2016

Absolutely no individual stocks. I'm a Boglehead ;-) I use index funds, an asset allocation with a risk level I'm comfortable with, I rebalance (if needed) once a year, and I sleep at night ;-)

Mariner · February 16, 2016

I pulled out and went all cash back in Oct.. I don't believe we've seen the bottom yet. I'm thinking maybe 14,000 will be the bottom.

TheDuke · February 16, 2016

Me and MKC. I own one stock and it is almost an index fund DNP. It pays 6.5 cents a share every month. High and low price is between 9 and 11 dollars a share for many years now.

RV_ · February 16, 2016

I guess we are all pretty close with the exception of the only individual stock I ever bought.

whj469 · February 16, 2016

I wouldn't even try market timing. Not many are able to time the stock markets.

Long term investing is what I do. I just read today that Warren Buffit thinks that you should have 90% of your money

in stock indexs, S&P 500 etc. He set his better halfs trust that way and he doesn't think you should try to market time.

FULLTIMEWANABE · February 16, 2016

OK

RV_ · February 17, 2016

I agree about timing the market. But I disagree that not many can time the markets. No one can time the market. Buy low, sell high never said lowest or highest. Nor when. I like my investments that require no buying or selling, and no sleepless nights.

Would it be GE? A new IPO?

But if y'all were able to buy on a downswing, first, which would you buy? That is the question.

TheDuke · February 17, 2016

Whj: I still say, this is about what stocks one might buy. In those two posts is there even a hint of what stock one would buy? If one wants to comment on the state of the the economy, the stock market, or make a political statement, I asked them to start their own post.

RV_ · February 18, 2016

markandkim · February 18, 2016

Since we can sense major changes coming next year, I would suggest energy stocks like oil and coal companies. I own several and will be picking up several new ones around late August. Will be watching closely. Alternate Energy companies are ok to hold, but will remain flat. I wouldn't be a new investor into them now. Too late for that.

Mariner · February 19, 2016

Since we can sense major changes coming next year, I would suggest energy stocks like oil and coal companies. I own several and will be picking up several new ones around late August. Will be watching closely. Alternate Energy companies are ok to hold, but will remain flat. I wouldn't be a new investor into them now. Too late for that.

I'm interested in your reasoning on your coal play. I agree 100% on oil later in the year, and alternative.

rynosback · February 19, 2016

I'm interested in your reasoning on your coal play. I agree 100% on oil later in the year, and alternative.

I agree as coal is being used less and less.

Mariner · February 21, 2016

Whj: I still say, this is about what stocks one might buy. In those two posts is there even a hint of what stock one would buy? If one wants to comment on the state of the the economy, the stock market, or make a political statement, I asked them to start their own post.

Oh. give me a break. Some of the best investing advice I've ever received was, what NOT to buy, and when to back off, and when to jump back in.

RV_ · February 23, 2016

Mariner,

Then why did you not start a thread about what stocks not to buy. I did this thread asking what stocks you would buy hypothetically and then we could ask why. It was for fun and could be interesting. Instead you guys are hijacking it and brinking politics as well.

Back to the topic I started here:

At the time I asked the question which is the topic of this thread, Tesla was down to about $140 from last year's high of 276. The same thing almost to the dollar happened in 2013 and 2014. It comes back because we are kind of like the anti smokers before the smoking bans. They now rally in support of tailpipe sucking.

I had strongly recommended that my friends and family buy at 140 and not that they would have a paper earnings at 177 of 37 bucks give or take, they are again saying I wish I'd listened.

When Space X IPOs I will buy that as well.

I sincerely believe oil is a dead man walking and I will continue to invest in Tesla and call for an end to fossil fuel subsidies which reached 5.3 trillions in 2015. Why? Because of the costs.

There is a lot more math and charts backing this up in the article. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/may/18/fossil-fuel-companies-getting-10m-a-minute-in-subsidies-says-imf

My personal non political take on this is simple. I smoked most of my life because the ads showed doctors saying how it is good for the nerves and digestion. Tobacco big money propaganda was outlawed on TV recently in my life's time line, helped a lot. Towards the end of my smoking I was vilified by some and treated rudely in public by a few because no one wanted to breathe my second hand smoke outside?

Yet these very folk are most of what makes up the absurd believers in the oil industry campaign to suck on tailpipes which affects all not just in a close proximity odor from a smoker sucking on a cigarette. I only realized how stinky it was when I quit. But I refuse to become what we used to call a smoking Nazi.

One of the biggest rants from them was how the cost of the health care of us smokers was coming out of their pockets and that tobacco was subsidized etc. Tobacco dragged their feet, and only when their own research was exposed as knowledgeable about the cancers and other diseases directly caused by smoking was any headway made. A real case could have been made in propaganda like the current climate change propaganda that science is wrong because one in 100,000 took the money and publish/ed comments they know are distortions at best.

All of it is just more "shut up and suck on the tailpipe" propaganda. Its is good for you and your bank account, and our economy. Nothing, as I am finding out, could be further from the truth.

People across the US are waking up. I believe the worm has turned on fossil fuel as it did on smoking.

Darryl&Rita · February 23, 2016

I'm not proud, I'm picking up oil/natural gas producers, as they fall. Not too much in any one purchase, but I've been in the resource business long enough to know that they'll come back around. The whole industry is based on supply and demand, and has always paid me well with it's rebounds. I'm not quite as convinced as RV of the imminent death of oil, as it's also in every piece of plastic we touch everyday, but agree the days as a fuel are limited.

Edit to add: A link to Lego's plan to replace hydrocarbon plastic with something else. Involves some expenditure, too.

RV_ · February 24, 2016

Darryl,

I agree on plastics and for lubricants. We still will need bearing grease and solvents. But I doubt that demand for it as a fuel will continue through my children's lifetime. Thanks for clarifying allowing me to chime in. I assume that's a given but you know about assuming. That sounds reasonable as well as the coal play in the short term.

Dollytrolley · February 25, 2016

I say again.....the Telsa-Taxi just might be the start of a real "sleeper-market" for Telsa......and other around-the-city-delivery-vehicles could be the next sleepr-market-for-Telsa.......a 200 to 300 mile range E-vehicle would make a heck of a FED-Ex Priority-One delivery rig.........

Telsa stock just might be a "shockingly-great-buy".........

Drive on..........(Telsa........Shockingly cheap commercial rig)

Mariner · February 25, 2016

Anytime I see any blue chip stocks beaten down, like say Exxon, I buy. Petroleum products are throughout our economy. From plastics, to lubricants, to medicines. As long as there's oil in the ground it'll be pumped and used. Trying to get a handle on any new and upcoming investment just takes due diligence. The best advice I ever received was to invest in something you know & personally use successfully. I took that to heart when an IPO called Google came out publicly in the 90's. I made a killing. But now that I'm retired, I'm reluctant to gamble anymore. I've looked at Tesla, but I don't like the idea of investing in a co. that's relying on tax payer subsidies. Just look at what happened with Solyndra. I realize Elon Musk is a different animal, but I'll wait and see what the long term is. And to be truthful, I've reached a point in my life financially, that I just might be done with trying to pick the next big thing. But it is fun to dabble here and there.

RV_ · February 25, 2016

Hey I agree with you on risks. That is why I would not short Tesla as the shorts are about to get another big squeeze. I had all sorts here tell me that their engineering background says Electric vehicles will never compete with ICEs and Tesla was a pump and dump. Folks forget Musk brought the roadster to market and on the road in 2008 and sold out for the first year, paid in advance, in full, to get one. He did not even go public until two years later in 2010 when I bought saying here that it was about time. I do wish that the forums here kept the old posts online because the silence of the antagonists since his success has been deafening.

It is not necessary to do that for us anymore either. We are as they say set for life with no dependence on our one stock investment. We will never be rich by choice not chance. We sleep well, already took our investment and a modest profit off the table after it had increased in value from 17 to $90. So just a hair under 4/5 of our shares remain. I admit it is fun to watch the volatility. I am learning a lot about human nature now. But am not going to get back into an 18 hour/day, six day a week stress contest to make more. We are comfortable.

But Tesla is a great hobby to watch our paper assets rise and fall over and over, and read the comments. I don't get from you what I see in others. Kind of a mix of sour grapes and a desire to get even with Tesla for not failing as they predicted, just to see their opinions validated. I don't get that feeling from your posts.

Tesla closed up again, today $8.43 to $187 and change. I will say here like my other predictions that I foresee over $300 within a year, because of what is coming out in that time line.