Are You Still In?

[wa_desert_rat]

 

But knowing the players and their work ethic makes for interesting research. Fun really. I am a researcher, not an investor. That is more for fun.

This is probably the best way to buy stock. You become, in effect, a partner sharing the same philosophy. It's why I invested in MS back in the late 1980s. And it worked very well for me, too.

 

Until the crash of 2000. But still... no complaints. There were weeks where I'd make $5,000 just in that stock. I remember taking a vacation in the '90s and coming home two weeks later to discover that I was $10k richer. LOL. It was amazing.

 

But even when the crash came I was still way ahead. Still am, actually.

 

I'm a big believer in solar because I had actually used it and knew it worked. But until now there has not been an entity that exhibited the same sort of belief. ARCO was building solar panels back in the 1980s and got out of that business. I think they discovered that solar would put their petroleum-based business plan into trouble, frankly. But they looked good for a while, ironically.

 

This current interest looks like it might last. I think it will transform the world, frankly.

 

WDR

[RV_]

I know about making big amounts in a week or three. Or seeing it go the other way. But it will break $300.00 soon. Soon can be from a few months to the end of this year to me.

 

I am helping him make it happen.

 

Tesla is making it because there are a lot of us who want a change from fossil fuels. Hawaii just announced they will be 100% renewable energy with no fossil fuels for energy by 2050.

 

I read a sign today in my mechanic's office that said "The most embarrassing thing is when someone does something right in front of me, that I maintained, loudly to them, was impossible."

[RV_]

Two great articles today. One does what I consider to be a credible assessment of the state of todays market using ego as a baseline and it rings true:

 

Title: Opinion: For Elon Musk, it’s good to be the king

 

Excerpt:

 

"On Wall Street, flouting ego is a grand problem.

 

Here’s the deal, though, and it’s especially important to realize this week, another in which heaving waves of ego hit Wall Street: Though Wall Street obviously never suffers modesty lightly, its narcissism comes in three distinct forms. To really get a grip on narcissism, and, by extension, Wall Street, you have to understand flouting ego in all its complex hues.

 

So with all due modesty, let me tell you exactly how it is:

 

Stage 1 Wall Street Narcissism

 

This stage of narcissism is also known as the “sometimes you just have to believe” stage. Wall Street is a place where people get paid, often vast sums, for their thoughts and opinions. That’s a setup for disaster. When people are right once, they tend to feel invincible. They also start to mistake a lucky hunch for the discovery of a new pattern in the universe.

 

Stage 2 Wall Street Narcissism

 

Tesla TSLA, +1.36% is struggling to make and sell a suitable number of cars, but Elon Musk is busy putting men on the moon and a battery in every home. He doesn’t lack for confidence, which creates a wider cult of worship that makes others take leave of their senses. A new biography set for release next week — “Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future” — contained passages so full of praise that Musk’s own mother might find it overblow

 

Stage 3 Wall Street Narcissism

 

The third and final stage of involves a state of pure delusion. When Louis XIV declared that there was no discernible difference between himself and France, you know the dude was screwy with narcissism. This goes beyond thinking we have the world figured out:

This is — we are the world.

 

There comes a time in each market cycle when narcissism spreads to such a degree that good results for all seem inevitable. Gravitational pull no longer exists. Notions that defy reason — a man is a state or “it’s different this time” — get chokeholds on better judgment and the market crashes in on itself. That’s known as Stage 3 Narcissism. It comes at the top of every market.

 

We’re not there yet. But it’s pretty evident that we’re deep into Stage 2 Narcissism. Don’t believe me? Sometimes you just have to.

 

Much more in the article here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/for-elon-musk-its-good-to-be-the-king-2015-05-15?siteid=yhoof2

 

The second is about the new Musk Bio which is receiving rave reviews.

 

Title: 3 Key Lessons From the New Elon Musk Biography

 

Excerpt:

 

"The PayPal Mafia

 

While Musk made his first fortune from an early start-up called Zip2, it was at PayPal that the entrepreneur first showed his ability to challenge a complex industry already set in its ways.

 

Musk’s central role as co-founder of PayPal shouldn’t be overlooked. In retrospect, the PayPal history is evidence of Musk’s unquestionable genius at rallying talented individuals around a big goal and making things happen.

 

Musk’s track record suggests his lofty goals are achievable

 

Vance goes beyond simply laying out Musk’s track record. His portrait of Musk shows just how crucial the entrepreneur was to the major achievements behind every start-up he was involved with. Going even further, Vance’s report of Musk led him to believe PayPal’s achievements might have been limited by a cautious board of directors who had trouble wrapping their minds around Musk’s unbridled ambition.

 

“History has demonstrated that while Musk’s goals can sound absurd in the moment, he certainly believes in them and, when given enough time, tends to achieve them,” Vance argues.

 

Sparking a new level of innovation in Silicon Valley

 

After studying Musk, Vance believes that the entrepreneur is playing a key role in pushing Silicon Valley toward greater innovation and more meaningful work.

Vance describes a lull in Silicon Valley between 2002 and 2007:

 

But Musk’s bold vision and willingness to take risks, paired with surprisingly robust execution, in the automotive, space, and energy industries, Vance explains, set a new precedent.

 

'To me, Elon is the shining example of how Silicon Valley might be able to reinvent itself and be more relevant than chasing these quick IPOs and focusing on getting incremental products out,’ said Edward Jung, a famed software engineer and inventor. ‘Those things are important, but they are not enough. We need to look at different models of how to do things that are longer term in nature and where the technology is more integrated.’ The integration mentioned by Jung — the harmonious melding of software, electronics, advanced materials, and computer horsepower — appears to be Musk’s gift. Squint ever so slightly, and it looks like Musk could be using his skills to pave the way toward an age of astonishing machines and science fiction dreams made manifest.'

Of the many profiles of business leaders, Vance’s take on Musk is among the best. The author’s objective and unbiased viewpoint captures Musk’s good and bad, his achievements and failures. Based on more than 30 hours of conversations with Musk, and interviews with close to 300 people, this investigative biography captures many facets of the inventor and entrepreneur. Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future should be required reading for anyone in business."

 

The points and achievements/leadership under all three are much more detailed in the original article here, along with links to related articles: http://time.com/money/3860353/elon-musk-biography/?xid=yahoo_money

 

These two articles are pretty short and the best read for folks who are just realizing not all things GM, our utilities, our Space programs and energy systems claimed would always cost too much, or not work as well as the technologies we use now work are already realizing some core assumptions are just plain wrong.

 

At this point no one can dispute Musk singlehandedly changed, and is still changing, the world.

 

BTW TSLA is already at $247 today and was down to 198 a month ago and a very nice buying opportunity. I am putting in a new house as soon as the weather dries up enough to do the dirt pad and concrete and deliver and set it up as it is in and waiting for weather to deliver, just bought a nice used Fiver cheap enough so I could put a new roof on it, and I did install a TPO roof, and am setting up a pad for it with sewer and electric. Then we move out and live here in our new to us Fiver for the month it takes to put the house in. My older dog Skylar has dyplasia and failed Thyroid and is on thyroid hormone, so can't get up or down the RV steps and we got a solid fold out eight foot ramp that sits on the top step and he loves playing on it it is so easy for him! One of these: http://www.emedramps.com/pvi-multi-fold-wheelchair-ramp-5-to-12-feet/ Works great for my truck too for me to load motorized toys with.

 

So I have not been able to justify buying another block now with expenditures and liquid assets all in readiness for the other shoes that inevitably drop with used RVs and setting up a new to us used RV, and new house.

 

One thing I am glad for, besides the showroom condition it is in, is he replaced the fridge two years ago. It has an aluminum frame and the roof is a full inch marine plywood with the insulation under it, and there was no rot just a cracked seam in the front and back that did no damage, it just started. However the EPDM was paper thin and not worth repairing or saving. I used two industrial roofers that decided to start a company to specialize in RV roof replacements. They came to my house and stayed in a motel and did a super job. Obviously experienced and heat seamed overlaps rather than using one continuous piece looks like a better way to so it and they did it for $2800 rather than the $8500 the local RV places were quoting. I watched every step. there is no way any leaks can occur barring running into something to tear it in the next ten to twenty years. I did see pics of pressed wood roofs they did that were rotted from front to back too. There was a minor issue with not getting the antenna aligned perfectly and one vent fan that was plastic rotten from age and the blades broke when first turned on, not their fault on that one. So I am out of buying Tesla stock for a few months anyway.

 

But I am sure the pundits will scare enough folks that are just dipping their toes into Tesla stock and are looking for stability not volatility and long term vision, so it will drop several times in the next three years before I evaluate my position. A SpaceX IPO would devastate me because it would be a real toss up as Tesla won't be mature until 2017 at the le, when the Gigafactory is in full production, battery prices and technologies start the price slide from economies of scale, and Tesla has put both the Model X and the Model E consumer priced EV into full production. I will reevaluate it in 2018. But when my excess liquid assets build again, as it does every few months and there is any chance Space X will IPO I will buy at least one large block of it.

 

Anybody long TSLA with me is smiling and not surprised either.

Edited May 15, 2015 by RV

[Five Wood]

John (McBockalds) and Cindona, you guys still around?

 

RV

They were always interesting to read. Another one I liked to follow was "Mac". I think he had a website devoted to Casino parking and the like.

 

 

Many many years ago when I bought an india mutual fund. I think it started tanking the day.

 

Duke

I get a bit leery of stocks or mutual funds from other countries. I've owned and still own stocks from Canada and Western Europe, but that's about the extent of my trust.

[RV_]

Jim agreed,

Mac is a bundle of energy. I met him briefly and his lovely wife staying here at one of our casinos years ago. Great people. I keep the new tech investment areas I'm interested in covered especially emerging trends I envision becoming commodities covered, it would be nice if more folks expert in traditional investments and strategies posted more like in the other thread active here about retirement withdrawal strategy. We just recently visited with another great couple from here. I welcome you and any other SKPs to email and let me know if you will be passing through. I've never met a SKP I did not like in the park system or that stopped by since here.

[KandJBm]

This thread has taken me for ever to read but what a fun read. So for all that effort I think I should get to respond. I am just about ready to begin slowly reducing our stock funds, but may hold bond funds steady for awhile longer. It seems that a number of those "experts" (lucky ones) who warned about the past two stock market swoons are warning again.

 

Is this market timing? Or is it risk adjustment? Or is it foolishness? Who knows?

[RV_]

Welcome to the discussion K! The prevailing view is that the key indicator is the price meltdown of commodities. They are melting down again. But the market has a new face, those of us who are in it as a substitute for the lousy interest rates banks offer for our saving with them. We're long term, and not buying stocks for income or retirement dividends. We are in some cases also supporting what we believe in. So some segments may be less vulnerable to herd mentality and panics.

[Kirk W]

Is this market timing? Or is it risk adjustment? Or is it foolishness? Who knows?

I don't think that I'd base my investment choices on forum discussions. Many posts on a subject doesn't make me an expert. Do your research looking at the professional opinions and choose.carefully. Remember that on the forums we are all able to claim to be anything we wish to with no documentation or proof.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Kirk

[Ron]

Also, be very wary of the so-called professionals. Many of them are simply lining their pockets with your money by giving you advice that's easily obtainable for free by doing a little of your own research. At least on this forum I know that no one is enriching themselves at my expense!

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-average-investor--being-systematically-taken-advantage-of--says-new-book-130247891.html

 

I treat information I receive on this or any forum as just one more data point and weigh it against information from other sources. Then do further research to test its validity. I weigh all the evidence and then make my own decisions.

---ron

[RV_]

Many posts on a subject doesn't make me an expert.

Amen!

[RV_]

Great article Ron! I like Yahoo Finance and read them for our stocks and other financial items of interest. Boy do I agree with that article.

[KandJBm]

I have recently discovered this shy commentator, http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-sps-13th-trip-thru-2100-since-february-13th-call-it-monetary-rigor-mortis-the-bull-is-dead/.

Anybody else here read his commentaries? Thoughts on his stuff?

Seems he has been arguing that the stock market peaked months ago. Just saying.

[KandJBm]

Stay calm. Keep hydrated.

[justRich]

Stay calm. Keep hydrated.

I like it.

And keep your powder dry.

The market is still over valued - but only a little compared to previous highs.

See: S&P 500 PE ratio

It's time for a correction and for those with reserve powder, wait until you can see the whites of their eyes!

[hdrider]

I like it.

And keep your powder dry.

The market is still over valued - but only a little compared to previous highs.

See: S&P 500 PE ratio

It's time for a correction and for those with reserve powder, wait until you can see the whites of their eyes!

LOL,, I thought I saw the whites of there eye's today so we used a little of the extra powder, but we saved a little powder just in case we see white again LOL!!

[RV_]

It buy time again for some stocks and some people. I'm sure lots of folks are choking with any correction. I wish we had more to invest but we are all in now.

[KandJBm]

I like it.

And keep your powder dry.

The market is still over valued - but only a little compared to previous highs.

See: S&P 500 PE ratio

It's time for a correction and for those with reserve powder, wait until you can see the whites of their eyes!

The Shiller P/E ratio (http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/)

shows an even more over valued market. This PE ratio factors in earnings from the previous ten years and thus it is less prone to wild swings in any one year (like 2009) when Earnings fell through the floor causing the P/E ratio to skyrocket. Maybe it is better, maybe not?

[justRich]

The Shiller P/E ratio (http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/)

shows an even more over valued market. This PE ratio factors in earnings from the previous ten years and thus it is less prone to wild swings in any one year (like 2009) when Earnings fell through the floor causing the P/E ratio to skyrocket. Maybe it is better, maybe not?

That's a ten year average graph - it won't tell you when to "get in" - unless you have a lot of patience - and the market really sags over a long period of time.

But it is a good indicator for those with patience and lack of emotional investing motivation,

But, yes, there's a lot of air below.

[KandJBm]

That's a ten year average graph - it won't tell you when to "get in" -

Right, it doesn't tell you when to get in or when to get out, that is not its purpose.

 

Its purpose is to "normalize," or "average out" the somewhat wild swings the P/E ratio can take from one year to the next due to the effect of changes in Earnings. It is interesting to me that while the Shiller P/E is designed to smooth our yearly extreme values in the common P/E ratio by averaging ten years of earnings for E, it actually gives an even larger current value for P/E than does the common P/E ratio (29 compared to 19). Of course that is due to recent years with elevated earnings (remember it is actually earnings per share) being averaged with lower earnings from the earlier years of the past ten years. Some authors I have read point out that since the financial crisis of 2008 many corporations have been buying back their stock shares in unusually high numbers in order to make their earnings per share look better than otherwise. And many have been doing this by actually borrowing money at the current super low interest rates thanks to the Federal Reserve's easy money policies. So they ask, has the Federal Reserve helped to create another "perfect storm" (like the housing bubble) which is now blowing through our financial markets?

[KandJBm]

I am just about ready to begin slowly reducing our stock funds, but may hold bond funds steady for awhile longer. It seems that a number of those "experts" (lucky ones) who warned about the past two stock market swoons are warning again.

So we began to reduce our stock funds after this post and looked like "experts" after the nosedive from Aug. 19-24. We even decided to reduce a bit more on Friday after the rebound on Wed.-Thur.this past week. Now we are somewhat comfortable with our reduced risk and think we will ride it out and see what happens over the next weeks and months. Who knows how bad it may get? Who knows if we made a mistake?

[justRich]

Somehow, the stock market seems like it is suffering from inflation.

Can it be that too much money was pumped into the economy and it fled to the stock market?

 

At our financial planner's round-table group discussion last Friday the question was raised "Where is all the money going to go?"

Bonds? Treasuries? Where?

 

Even though our planner argued for a bear market, he could not answer that question.

[Kirk W]

Somehow, the stock market seems like it is suffering from inflation.

Can it be that too much money was pumped into the economy and it fled to the stock market?

Answer that one and you can become very rich and famous!

[Jack Mayer]

Somehow, the stock market seems like it is suffering from inflation.

Can it be that too much money was pumped into the economy and it fled to the stock market?

 

 

That is certainly one theory. But no one knows for sure. But the better question is "where do I put (lets say) 500K if not in the stock market? Assuming one wants reasonable growth. Mostly this is rhetorical.....

 

I also argue a bear market...but no real negative effect until next year, and probably after the election. Unless outside forces "force the issue". Just my opinion....and not worth much at all....

[KandJBm]

Somehow, the stock market seems like it is suffering from inflation.

Can it be that too much money was pumped into the economy and it fled to the stock market?

 

That is the theory of a number of financial writers, "Accordingly, after 80 months of showering Wall Street with what is a wholly unnatural and perverse financial windfall—-that is, zero cost in the money market—–the Fed has ignited a rip-roaring inflation. But the inflation is in the financial market, not the supermarket." See, http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/stanley-fischer-speaks-airballs-from-a-dangerous-academic-fool/ for a lenghty, and spirited, explanation of a number of ways the Federal Reserve's policies of low interest rates and QE have had little effect on consumer and business spending in the economy, but have had a large effect in financial markets and emerging economies. His graph showing debt levels since 1990 seems shocking to me. Don't know whose theory is correct, but this one does have its appeal for me.

[Jim & Alice]

Most of our personal retirement money (401k, 403b, IRA) has been on the sidelines (MM)... since the Bull market hit 16K over two years ago. Clearly, we missed some gains after that, but we also slept well. We do have a chunk that is placed with a long-time friend & Financial Advisor that is invested in a junk bond fund... and even that is just holding.

 

But I am watching the market... looking for the 'bottom'... so that the funds that I manage for my kids and grandkids can take advantage of low stock prices. They have time to let the market do its long term thing.

 

Interesting times we live in.

Jim