Are You Still In?

[Smitty77_7]

Hey Karen - Congrats to you and Roger for getting to where you are on the financial front. And please thank Roger for serving!

 

I'm an odd bird (The DW would be nodding her head on that comment!), where we too have kept investing in a steady process over the last 20+ years. And as Jack did, this included keeping a 'bucket of cash' funds (above and beyond our emergency stash) to allow leveraging in when buying opportunities present themselves. When we shifted to retirement mode, I did end up with about 3/4 of our overall retirement savings moved into a managed series of investment with a Financial Planner. I stay very involved, and also our FP and I have an agreement on our desired level of risk while still remaining in the game as is required to allow growth.

 

On edit: I thought I'd share that on the 3/4 of the funds with the FP, these along with a pension and future SS are our mainstays to fund retirement ahead, we keep mix of about: 40% Equity, 20% Bond and 33% Fixed Income, and the balance a mix of Commodities, Cash and Others. The other 1/4 varies between 7 70-85% Equities, with 15-30% in cash for 'buying opportunities'. None of this 1/4 bucket, are required to support our retirement living. We use the revenues from this to support fun things, and misc upgrade projects on the RV and around the home, and currently to fund our Daughter's marriage at the end of September.

 

Still On Edit: The key to this mix, is we can first cut out the 'fun things and upgrades' from the 1/4 I control in TD Ameritrade. And, we can also dial back the drawdown from our 3/4 retirement funds. too. We have a fast experience coming up on two years for me, and a year and a half for the DW, so far we've not needed to trim anything -we've had a pretty good ride!. We are drawing down a bit more until I start taking SS early next year, but we were prepared to nip/reduce that as needed based upon over all performance. One thing we have agreed to between myself and the DW, is during the downturn cycles ahead, we'll shift more of our withdrawal from our 'cash side' of things, so as not to get hit too hard on the investment vehicle side. --- End of Edit ---

 

We, well specifically I, went with the managed investment approach because the DW does not like to be too involved in our finance side of things. (She cares, and yes she does sit down with myself and the FP on a regular basis as we review things.) It is in case something happens to me, that we both decided to start a relationship with a FP. This way she will have a rapport built up with an individual we both trust. The overhead costs of his assistance, is something we can afford, and it gives peace of mind to the DW for the future.

 

In general, I've enjoyed this thread, and pop into it every few months to catch up. This group has a very broad background of knowledge, and I sure enjoy reading and seeing different perspectives.

 

I'm in the camp that really feels it's important to do what YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE doing. Sure, always keep your guards up, and keep an look on the horizon at what you think maybe coming towards us on a financial front - but I always recommend to friends and family if you're losing sleep about this side of your lives, reevaluate what you're doing.

 

Best to all,

Smitty

Edited August 26, 2014 by Smitty

[RV_]

Thanks Smitty,

Sounds like you, while ahead of me by far in investment experience have the same results from buying low when everyone else is running to sell too late. And selling high off the top should it become necessary.

 

I did not wait for full retirement age and took my first deposit last month as I turned 62 this past May. My SH is going to draw at 62 as well. We already lived on just my retirement when we fulltimed for seven years on retirement from the AF at 45. I believe the extra cash from a full second career would have made me miss a five year professional stint to earn enough to catch up to my goals for now, and not have netted me any more. It would, however, have caused us to miss out on the seven years land yachting when very young and able to physically handle whatever.

 

I am so happy for you guys! I also bought my property when it was very low and just before the fracking gas boom here. It's worth three times what we paid for it in late 2003. Don't be too impressed, we took advantage of a sell cheap and save their credit rating liquidation, and it was worth twice what we paid then. We weren't going to touch our nest eggs, but did take a five year position for high compensation low job security that paid off. I could have stayed but my funds were enough and I pumped most of my salary into funds 2007/8/9. Then stayed with them, retired again and used my petty cash fund to get into Tesla on IPO in 2010. I was going to use $30k of that to build in solar here but then used it too as now solar is 20% what it cost then for components. And then I'd have bought grid connected, rather than wait a few years more for storage solutions just now coming into focus as a direct result of Tesla's impact on both land and space transportation. I don't time these things they just fall into place sometimes. It has been a good 16 years for us financially and personally, since retiring from the AF.

Edited August 26, 2014 by RV

[RV_]

In reading back through this thread that started in 2011 by Cindona I'm struck by my original and maturing attitude to investments, the stock market, and those who invest in it. Early on I was a newbie, but a newbie who came to the stock market after following Elon Musk for years, especially when he started Space X with his money from selling PayPal to eBay, then when he got involved in Tesla.

 

There were many more bitter folks here who lost big in the post economic meltdown of 2007/8.

 

I was new to it so the valuations folks and the "stock experts" calculating said Teslas was a fraud, can't be done,and was a pump and dump, in the years I wrote about them here from 2003-2007 when they had no car in production, and came in with their plainly stated goal. They were going to rid the world of fossil fuel burning cars.

 

The Model S, the Model X in 2015, the megafactory to bring down the price of batteries, and then the lower priced consumer car. These are American cars in concept design and even parts. American workers, American manufacturing from the ground up, because of American innovation. Any one who listened, and bought say $50k into it at 22.50 the three times that happened, would find today it would be worth today, four years later, $627,000.00.

 

The markets have recovered, and the new focus on renewables is providing multiple opportunities to invest in addition to the blue chips and emerging technology.

 

I am really happy with the market and my late in life decision to invest in stock. I think I'll leave it at that, and the rest in property and USAA managed funds.

 

[Roger & Karen]

I just checked in on this thread today for the first time since I posted. The markets reached another all-time high, but we are well aware that the markets can change for the worse overnight. We still haven't started collecting SS, but we did go to the SS office, and the wonderful young man there printed out what our monthly SS increases would be until we each reached 70 years of age. Many people only consider the ages of 62, 66 and 70, but one can collect at any month until the age of 70, when it becomes mandatory.....or not collecting it at all.

 

We are at the ages when we don't want for much. We did splurge on two Vespa scooters this summer. We spent the summer working on our flower gardens, kayaking and on our scooters. We also spend time with family and friends. In a couple of months we will do our circuit of the US visiting our children, grandchildren, friends and areas that we haven't explored yet.

 

I know that many people work hard and don't have opportunities that are available to others. Because my family was very poor, I learned to work hard and save. Roger was brought up well-to-do, but he knew how to save, invest, and live under our means. He saved from the standpoint of knowledge. I saved from fear of extreme poverty. Six children and two adults lived in a 940sf house while I was growing up.

 

So, our diverse backgrounds led us to the same idea of save, save, save.

 

Karen

[Barbaraok]

One thing to think about when deciding to take SS or pull from savings/retirement funds - - when you die the SS go away, but the savings/retirement funds can be passed on. That's one of the reasons we decided to take SS early - leaves the other funds growing until mandatory withdrawals.

 

Barb

[Jack Mayer]

That was our philosophy as well Barb.....I'm holding off on a smaller pension I have (from the old days when there WERE pensions) in order maintain my health care supplement. Once I'm on Medicare I'll take that. It will maximize that benefit and I have 100% going to Danielle on my death. She has the same on her pension. In todays world it is far more income than we need so we will save the excess.....but inflation will catch up to the excess, eventually.

[RV_]

Us too! My SH won't be eligible for two more years at 62, but she has no other retirement we have just mine, and now my SS. However my retirement continues at 50% for her but most importantly the health benefits remain the same for her should I kick the proverbial bucket before she does. Our plans were predicated on 0 bills and paid for property/home/vehicles and no other liabilities. We buy one to four years gently used and also save the finance charges for all vehicles and real property, which in a house can double the cost over a 20 year mortgage.

Edited September 23, 2014 by RV

[Roger & Karen]

Last year we decided to start our SS this coming December. It brings us to a nice round number. Plus Roger retired just last August. I will be 64 I and he will be 63 this coming February. We agree with taking the SS early, but it didn't make sense to collect last year.

 

Karen

[RV_]

Karen,

My younger brother who never drank much, stopped smoking decades ago, and ran three times a week without anyone even chasing or threatening him. At 56 in 2010 my SIL heard a thump when he went to bed upstairs, and thought he dropped something. After a minute she wondered if he was OK and went up to check and my kid brother was dead by the side of the bed. Massive MI. But his doc and wife were shocked as he was always the healthiest, like Jim Fixx.

 

My point is that I am the one who smoked three packs a day, and two packs/day most of my life not quitting until the month before he died. Drank my share overseas and in military functions when we toasted the entire chain of command from the CIC down to members of the mess. I am the one healthy as an ox. He didn't even get to 62.

 

I am glad I planned for the best, meaning not worrying about the worst. Reality, what a concept.

Edited September 23, 2014 by RV

[hdrider]

The market has dropped some this week,,, could it be a good time to put some money in here pretty soon??

[Roger & Karen]

I am leery of investing anymore. With my stocks, I do reinvest the dividends, and I am not touching my 401k until I must. Roger's 401k will remain untouched, also. His dividends are put in to a cash account, but he doesn't touch the investments. We are fortunate, because we are living a dream retirement. We have Tricare for medical and his naval retirement, plus our SS, to live on should the markets dry up.

 

Roger's brother and his wife have always been active and don't drink or smoke. They play tennis tournaments. His wife has been fighting cancer for 20 years. Roger's brother has cancer, also. Roger and I eat too much and don't exercise enough, but knock wood, we are very healthy....with the occasional joint aches.

 

Sometimes I want to fulltime, but I enjoy gardening very much. Plus, I love being in Maine in the summer and fall.

 

Karen

Edited September 23, 2014 by Roger & Karen

[RV_]

I only wanted two stocks, Apple at 50 in 2005 when they announced they were switching to Wintel x86 chipsets, and I chickened out, and then Tesla, which IPO'd just after I retired again at 58 and had my business account doing nothing and making nothing in a preferred USAA savings account. We too have Tricare and her USAA funds 401k, coupled with our retirement, real property, and some liquid and we don't even need to take anything either, all dividends are reinvested. We can live on my retirement and she has SBP for 50%. No bills but utilities, food and fuel. But you guys were two officer retirements. My wife tried to come in but was deaf in one ear from a childhood infection. She just read recently that that has been changed and in some cases even taking deaf folks? But if she didn't say, no one could tell as her hearing is excellent, if not directional. Now that still po'd her because she was turned down in 1975.

 

It doesn't matter how someone retires or what they do to another, all that counts is they are happy. I was actually trim and active but gained 50 pounds when I quit smoking, and my back injuries from the military and paid VA service connected also got pretty bad. I have finally decided on the neck and lumbar surgery before I get any older in January. Military life is tough on our frames. Got my bucket list done as we went fulltiming for 7 years on retirement at age 45. Now that was good timing in hindsight.

 

I hope to be back on the road in another month or so part time. I bought my truck to tow with a couple of weeks ago. I am an optimist about the Laser Spinal surgery folks.

 

Well met Karen.

[Ron]

The market has dropped some this week,,, could it be a good time to put some money in here pretty soon??

IMHO no one knows the answer to your question. You'd have to get the answer from someone who has a long record of being able to successfully "time the market". I've been looking for someone like that for over 40 years and haven't found one yet.

 

An alternative question that I, and many other investors, find more useful is "where are the bargains?" in the market today. Finding the answer to that question takes more work than simply looking at the overall market averages but it can also be far more rewarding. IF, IF, you start with the premise that you are unable to time the market then I believe the next best approach is to stay fully invested but diligently rotate your investments away from companies that seem overvalued to companies that seem undervalued. This takes a little research, lots of patience, and lots of discipline.

 

There are always segments of the market that are temporally out of favor for one reason or another. Within those out-of-favor segments it's possible to find excellent companies, with excellent management, selling for a bargain price. Buy them when they are "on sale" - then sit back and relax. But, diversify widely because on any single investment decision there's always the possibility that your assessment could be totally wrong.

 

It is also true that the overall market goes through cycles of being more expensive or less expensive based on various valuation methods. But determining how much higher an "overvalued" market will go, or knowing how much lower and "undervalued" market might go is, IMO, not possible so the next best approach is to be fully invested in companies that are already "cheap", and therefore will probably fall the least in a market downturn. Those are usually the ones that will recover and the fastest and have the largest increases when the overall market turns more positive.

 

I could offer many examples of what I consider relative bargains today. This article expounds on one of them that pretty much meets my criterion so it serves to illustrate the point. I like the "Seeking Alpha" website because most of the authors are real investors with a lot of experience. The comments that follow most articles are also very valuable because they usually offer additional insights, from a broad range of perspectives, from other serious investors. The back-and-forth of the comments help you weigh the evidence and form your own opinion about the author's thesis.

 

I'm not an investment advisor and I'm not recommending any investment approach or any particular stock. All of the above is just my opinion. Everyone should do their own due diligence and find an approach that works for them.

[Five Wood]

Ron & Elena's post above makes some very good points. In my opinion attempting to time the market by jumping in and out because of what you think may happen is extremely difficult and very risky. Staying invested all the time and "working those investments" with what the market presents to you today is a much more sound approach.

 

The sector rotation approach that you describe is an intelligent way to move around your investments. A little research will show that many stocks follow patterns in relation to interest rates, business cycles, etc.

 

I too read the "Seeking Alpha" site regularly. I am leery of many of the authors there though because literally anyone can publish on the site. With that said though you can find some very interesting authors. Chuck Carnevale is one that I follow. He owns a charting website and posts articles often. He has a very clearly defined conservative investment style and he is always an interesting read.

Edited September 29, 2014 by 5Wood

[RV_]

Some good advice there 5Wood.

[Five Wood]

I see this thread moving down in the active list and I hate to see it go. Many of us have contributed to it over the years it has been active and I have found it very interesting to read it over again occasionally to see what people thought at different points in the cycle of our economy.

 

As a means to keep a worthy thread alive I would ask. What was the worst stock investment you ever made? For me it was a difficult choice, as there have been some doozies. But if I have to choose one it would be a gold miner called Barrick Gold Corp. . . formerly known as American Barrick ticker symbol “ABX”.

 

In Feb of 2012 I felt the need to add some exposure to gold in my portfolio. I purchased ABX at 48.45 per share. ABX now trades at 12.75! Over the past three years, through various “rescue strategies” I have lowered my cost basis to 25.40. Eventually I will work my way out of this position at a profit and it’s actually a lot of fun to work at it.

 

My advice on commodity stocks such as ABX. . . don’t do it. There are just too many variables.

 

So let’s hear it. What was your worst stock investment?

 

Jim

[TheDuke]

Many many years ago when I bought an india mutual fund. I think it started tanking the day.

[RV_]

I was overseas and had a sales guy sell me a fund from Invesco but was based on the isle of Jersey, apparently beyond the reach of information demands, I later found. Totally the wrong investment vehicle as I wasn't trying to hide funds. I finally got my money out after it losing for a couple of years. It wasn't much but was my principal anyway.

[wa_desert_rat]

I was overseas and had a sales guy sell me a fund from Invesco but was based on the isle of Jersey, apparently beyond the reach of information demands, I later found. Totally the wrong investment vehicle as I wasn't trying to hide funds. I finally got my money out after it losing for a couple of years. It wasn't much but was my principal anyway.

A fair number of stock market brokers are not much different than used car salesmen. Back when Microsoft was doubling every six months I told a co-worker (blonde girl) to take the $5k she had and buy MS stock and to not listen to the broker when he said that it had "topped out" and not to buy ANYTHING he told her to.

 

She ended up with only $2500 in MS and $2500 in some useless POS that the broker had been told to move...

 

The MS was worth $10k or so by the time she sold both of them to buy a house. LOL

 

WDR

[RV_]

Yeah I know. I was lucky to have gotten my principle back. Which is a loss with no interest/profit for two years in any event.

 

Jim thanks for bumping it up. I too like all the different perspectives from 2011 to date.

[RV_]

John (McBockalds) and Cindona, you guys still around?

[EagleEye]

I was in the service many years ago and was sold a mutual fund. I kept it for about 10 years and ended up almost breaking even. Compared to today it wasn't much money but back then $2000 it was a lot.

[FULLTIMEWANABE]

The worst investment returns we have received have been with Canadian mining stocks and on occasion energy stocks many years ago, when we just used to buy and hold. Our highest rate of returns have ironically been the USA traded stocks as long as we haven't listened to the so called TV gurus (Herbal-life going up to $80 last summer quoted!) and not got too greedy holding on too long. Also found that when we started buying only a quarter to a third of what we wanted and then adding to it as it played out we have done much better.

 

Just in what will be a very very long process of decision making on how to convert it all from the active trading accounts into a couch potato type portofolio where we are less reliant on secure and high speed unlimited internet access as we ready to be on the road longer and longer. It's a doozie when you have traded a certain way for almost two decades to decide how to do it differently.

 

I've been following this thread a long time as well, comparing thoughts to a later reality, so wonderful to see it pushed back up. Thanks Jim

[wa_desert_rat]

By far the safest way to invest is to do your own research and move in in increments but where do you do your research? Blogs are useless, most web sites are too. The "motley fool" used to be at least somewhat reasonable but when I've gone to that site lately (last few years) it's been pages and pages of blather and no real information.

 

I do have a broker I can sorta trust (they have not churned my account in the 20 years I've been with them as they moved from one name to another, at least). But in general brokers are not to be trusted except to buy and sell what you tell them to. Even then....

 

WDR

[RV_]

I was never interested until Musk. I followed him at just the right time from around 2001/2 on. The whole story is on this thread.

 

I still hold long on Tesla stock. Been five years now. It has dropped 20-50% several times since I've owned it. I have watched the shorts come and go and get burned. Tesla IPO'd right when I was looking for a place to put my ~ $30-50k petty cash account at a local bank to do my three person marketing payroll from. When I retired again I was about to do a grid solar installation but boy am I ever glad I waited! I since took my money back plus $5k just to say I made a profit if it went bust, so it is all house money now.

 

I really regret selling those shares today but at least was smart enough to keep 75% of my shares.

 

So there is something to be said for staying the course when the disruptions aren't done and neither is the CEO/owner.

 

Research is easy but there are so many investment gurus and so called News sources that aren't. They grind their axes for their agendas.

 

For example check out this article from today:

 

http://news.investors.com/051215-752200-boeing-glad-to-see-spacex-competition.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

 

Investors.com leaves out the important facts. Before you read the above article bear in mind these facts that are easily verifiable should it appear I am spinning the info by leaving out facts or inventing my own.

 

1. Boeing and Lockheed, the main partners of the United Launch Alliance are badly embarrassed, and their loose play with our nation's security goes completely unmentioned.

 

Boeing said SpaceX could never design, develop, and test a rocket launch vehicle in 5 years. They did and docked with the ISS in that time frame.

 

The ULA with Boeing in the lead spent millions inside the beltway trying to keep Tesla away from being able to get any Air Force contracts. Tesla sued and won some token contracts.

 

The big embarrassment for the ULA and still suppressed info? The ULA was not building their own rocket engines. They bought new Russian Engines. Orbital Sciences the other private company picked to compete with the ULA to lower costs also bought Russian engines but theirs were old mothballed salvage engines. Orbital sciences attempt to launch with mothballed rockets blew up at launch.The Russians invaded the Ukraine, we objected, Putin said oh yeah? You get no more Russian rocket engines USA ULA!

 

The ULA can't get another launch vehicle certified for Air Force classified missions for three years. SpaceX finishes certification next month, June 2015.

 

SpaceX actually has a three year monopoly. After that let's see the ULA compete and bring in pricing a bit less expansive then their past over budget bloated cost overrunning and behind schedule exclusive relationship.

 

Knowing those facts now read the article and see how carefully worded it is. And think about how Boeing has had battery problems again with their newest airliners and still refuse to ask Musk for help. Then watch for their Mars mission ads extolling their already prototyped vehicles for it. Anyone actually seen one fly?

 

The ULA has become a bloated PR machine that simply cannot compete with SpaceX in anything except PR.

 

Like Tesla not getting enough competition and giving away his patents this past January. Suddenly there are a dozen or more true EVs scheduled for 2017 and claiming to compete favorably with Tesla in range as well as performance.

 

All that advertising. All those R&D dollars. But Tesla spends not one penny on advertising. Despite fans making some anyway and posting on YouTube. (They are awesome BTW) Tesla spends nothing on consumer advertising so far. His stuff is so new the press does it all for him.

 

So there are exceptions that come along once in a lifetime. It will go up. But Tesla is volatile. That is half the fun when it is house money. There was a recent buy opportunity when it went down to 198.

 

SpaceX will be another when it IPOs. See everyone else IPOs to do R&D. Tesla did not IPO until 2010 fully two years after he had the Tesla Roadster in full production and on the road, sold out with a reservation only by paying $100k or so in full, in advance. SpaceX is totally successful and has not IPO'd yet either. Musk does not let anyone in until it is a success first, and fully competitive.

 

Before the naysayers with little info say anything about how it will fail my answer is huh? When is your prediction? I bought in at 17, 22 and 22.50 for my biggest blocks of stock. then bought another 10k worth because I could find no better place for it. So when it dropped from 250 to 120, we waited a day too long but still bought another block at 130.

 

I am not an investor. This is my only individual stock buy ever, not counting our four USAA Mutual Funds in our IRA.

 

Not beginner's luck any more than my next investment in SpaceX will be. Solar City literally invented the lease model for the current solar market. But IO was tied up with Tesla and bought a little then sold it for a slight profit and used that for our last block of Tesla at ~$130.

 

Some stocks are different.

 

I do not use brokers nor rely on Kramer or so called Investor magazines like the thinly disguised ones all owned by the same spin master. People believe that following them is best and the losses or lack of significant gains is just the way of the market, while those very same gurus are raking in by not doing what the average investor does. I buy via USAA and sell that way too for a cost of $8.50 per trade. No advisors. Just my research and my gut. Boy have I had some folks tell me to do it differently. If I lose it all Musk has to go first. He is not a manipulator, just a humble computer engineer and rocket scientist, with a penchant for leadership and when to say the right things.

 

He's following his dream and I am along for the ride, and what a ride it's been. I am actually dealing with real amounts now. But heck that is all a dream because until I cash in my chips, I've made or lost nothing. This is not a stock to sell and buy cheaper later. Now that is a risk.

 

 

But knowing the players and their work ethic makes for interesting research. Fun really. I am a researcher, not an investor. That is more for fun.

Edited May 13, 2015 by RV