My Next Moves

RV_ · October 31, 2021

The EV space is heating up and will continue for years to come. Here is what I have done and am doing about those opportunities.

Tesla is a hold for me. It hit a new high of $1128.15 - I think I'll hold it because:

Tesla is a trillion dollar company now, the fifth company to get there. Some analysts who have been on track with proven Tesla forecasts and valuations all along are saying it will go to three trillion dollars. I believe it because Tesla is just now getting their third and fourth Gigafactories into full production. They are coming online with a cheaper battery for their Tesla battery packs, and they are doubling their Supercharger network in the next two years with their Superchargers coming from their new and in production dedicated Supercharger factory in Shanghai. Still to come are a Truck, a consumer inexpensive Model 2 $25k vehicle, a new Roadster, and an HDT heavy hauler EV 18 wheeler tractor/truck. Or it may go volatile and drop again. I do not recommend it for new investors at all.

For me I believe the traditional automakers are mostly going to fail at EVs. They are saddled with a dealership model with dealers who have millions invested in each stealership. Stealerships make most of their money from service as ICE age vehicles require a lot of maintenance. EVs don't. The National Automobile Dealer's Association, NADA, made a stink claiming Tesla cannot sell without dealers as selling directly to the customer cuts dealers out. Tesla had no dealers, still have none. So some states, in the South mostly, passed laws preventing direct sales to consumers and limited Tesla to showrooms where you can see them and test drive them but you cannot buy them, you have to order it online. Talk about screwing their citizens. With little profit in EVs, stealerships will fight tooth and nail against them and eventually be out of business anyway. But in the meantime I foresee dealer lawsuits against any company that tries to sell direct. It will get ugly.

Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian among others, are the only ones not saddled with those outdated sales models and dealer resistance to selling them. They even tried to say the customer will be hurt by the lack of dealer support. I've owned one for a year and never had an issue. Plenty of over the air updates and mine is going in for new climate control temp sensors next Tuesday morning for warranty replacement. My showroom and repair center is local now, here in my city now, I don't have to drive to Denver suburbs anymore. Their repair nays are empty save one car or two every time I have been there.

New investments: Rivian, a new house, Starlink.

Rivian:

I bought one - I put the $1000.00 down payment on my new Rivian R1T EV truck. There is today no EV truck for sale but Rivian which has been in production in their Normal Illinois plant for a couple of months now. Most sales have been to employees but reviews are coming out. I figure, like my Tesla which is worth $10k more now than when I bought it a little over a year ago, that if I don't like the truck I can turn it for a profit at least for this coming year until the chip supplies and other pandemic limitations lift.

I had no idea Rivian had a fire from a battery pack module that was not in a car or truck and was put out immediately. I do not trust LG battery packs after the Bolt debacle. Tesla uses Panasonic design batteries (Japanese) and LG is Goldstar from Korea. Rivian is using Samsung batteries another Korean supplier I like even less than LG. I had a Samsung TV blow out many of its capacitors at once and they tried to dodge responsibility and then finally agreed to repair them and my TV picture was terrible after that repair.

However as I posted here several years ago no Bolts were variable for test drives anywhere in NW Louisiana to and including Dallas. But of the first 2000 that came from LG 200 of them had defective battery packs and with good charges just stopped and stranded their owners. That was one of two defects and the other was not fixed. You would think they would have insured what happened with all their battery packs needing to be replaced did not happen but they did not.

So why am I buying one and planning to invest a lot into the company? Because the EV market is just now exploding here and I expect some initial bumps and problems at first to come up. If they fix then issues now with the Samsung batteries all is well. I also hope that they do not delay their IPO and proceed soonest and lower the initial price of the IPO to overcome hesitation over that fire.

However they have the only EV AWD four motor pickup for sale now with the Cybertruck on the back burner and the F-150 EV truck yet to be produced and proven. So Rivian has no small truck competition at this moment. As well they planned to produce the SUV and truck first but Amazon essentially said they would buy all the delivery vans they could produce and word is they are producing their van and truck first.

So I am buying Rivian stock on their IPO.

Starlink is also getting half of my liquid assets for investing when they IPO. I had no idea about the Pi phone and don't have all the details yet but hat is another Musk disruption this time the cell phone industry. One of my fellow Tesla investors here, Pete Kildow, made me aware of the Pi phone. I had been preoccupied with my PE and clot in my leg, hospital stay and recovering. I am just now getting back on my feed and looking anew. Thanks Pete for the Pi phone and Rivian Fire updates!

This just a rumor so far but I was investing in Starlink anyway. Remember buy on the rumor sell on the news.

As all along along I am not investing anything I cannot afford to lose. I am not nor have I ever suggested others do as I do. If one does and loses like we did on our ACB and NBEV stocks, oh well.

For those who keep being captain obvious and saying it is only on paper here is Musk's net worth:

"Musk's current net worth is $287 billion – that's $91 billion more than Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos. Musk's wealth was bolstered by a rally in Tesla shares on Monday. Elon Musk's net worth may soon top $300 billion – which would make him the first person ever to hit the milestone.Musk's current net worth is $287 billion – that's $91 billion more than Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos. Musk's wealth was bolstered by a rally in Tesla shares on Monday. Elon Musk's net worth may soon top $300 billion – which would make him the first person ever to hit the milestone." Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-net-worth-300-billion-soon-2021-10#:~:text=Musk's current net worth is %24287 billion –,the first person ever to hit the milestone.

His is also on paper. No one will liquidate and put that amount where? Or my rather large and growing amount? I am a long term investor and only keep liquid some of my assets. We are liquidating our funds to pay for the Rivian and get them out of the way of any corrections.

To those frightened about inflation I agree with Goldman:

Excerpt:

"Inflation will plunge in 2022: Goldman Sachs

Tue, October 26, 2021,

Hat tip to Goldman Sachs for taking a somewhat contrarian take on the longer-term outlook for inflation.

Whether it proves correct is anyone's guess as headlines continue on price spikes for commodities and consumer goods.

"We are boosting our sequential inflation assumptions for Q4 and early 2022. We now expect year-on-year core PCE inflation of 4.3% at year-end, 3.0% in June 2022, and 2.15% in December 2022 (vs. 4.25%, 2.7% and 2.0% previously). This slower resolution of supply constraints means that year-on-year inflation will be higher in the immediate aftermath of tapering than we had previously expected. While we expect inflation to be on a sharp downward trajectory at that point and to continue falling through end-2022, this higher-for-longer path increases the risk of an earlier hike in 2022," said Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a new research note on Tuesday.

Hatzius sees three drivers of cooling inflation in 2022.

First is an improved supply of semiconductors as manufacturers such as Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor ramp up production. Second, a better supply of labor that will likely help tame hourly wage inflation. And lastly, the wind down of U.S. port congestion which should mean a tempering in freight costs and potentially, fewer prices increases by companies."

Much more in he article here with related hotlinks:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-will-plunge-in-2022-goldman-sachs-202724178.html

I sold my house! My son in Germany bought it cash and I gave him a discount yet still making $115k on it. My realtor buddy is doing all the paperwork for just under $1000 and finding us our new ranch style home. Since they are going to rent it for three years until they return, so there is no hurry as there would be with a sale to someone wanting to move in right away. And I raised my kiddo right. He also is a Tesla investor.

Edited October 31, 2021 by RV_

Kirk W · October 31, 2021

So are you advocating investing everything into the places that you have mentioned? Or only the more liquid funds? You must have some tax sheltered 401k/IRA/457/403b, or such that is diversified?

RV_ · October 31, 2021

Kirk,

I don't advocate anyone invest in anything. You read the post? The answer to your question is there: "As all along I am not investing anything I cannot afford to lose. I am not nr have I ever suggested others do as I do. If one does and loses like we did on our ACB and NBEV stocks, oh well."

I am going to edit that nr to nor as I'm sure was clear anyway.

Edited October 31, 2021 by RV_

durangodon · October 31, 2021

10 hours ago, RV_ said:

I do not trust LG battery packs after the Bolt debacle. Tesla uses Panasonic design batteries (Japanese) and LG is Goldstar from Korea.

It's my understanding that Tesla uses lot's of LG batteries and plans to use more in future.

https://electrek.co/2021/06/02/tesla-first-lg-new-ncma-nickel-based-battery-cells/

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-battery-cells-lg-supplier-us/

https://electrek.co/2020/11/23/tesla-secures-battery-cell-supply-from-lg-chem-model-y-production-china/

https://thedriven.io/2021/03/10/lg-energy-solutions-to-make-tesla-4680-batteries-sources-say/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-lg-evs-exclusive-idUSKBN2B12HY

RV_ · October 31, 2021

Don, excellent info thanks for the links. I picked up some info I did not know. There is a big difference between (NCMA batteries, traditional Li-Ion, and batteries of any type) built to spec using Tesla patents with Tesla oversight and experience, and S.Korean companies doing all the R&D for a company like GM without EV/EV battery experience, patents, or the money to do their own R&D. GM gave up and consigned their first EV, the Bolt, to LG Chem who designed it all, made the car and the battery packs, and shipped the completed modules to the GM Orion plant for assembly so it was a actually a South Korean car, designed and built in S. Korea, and shipped to the US for assembly with no part of it manufactured in the US at that time.

There have been serious failures from the start.

August 2017: "

Brad Berman, the founder of the site, had this happen to his Bolt earlier this month with just 1,700 miles on the odometer. As he was driving, his range indicator dropped from about 100 miles to nine, and the Bolt came to a complete stop in the middle of the road. He wrote:

“After a few seconds of a warning chime, the steering wheel shuddered, and the vehicle quickly came to a complete stop in the middle of the road. When I looked down at the dashboard, the indicated remaining range had abruptly changed to nine miles.”

The automaker said the problem only affects a small number of early production models. To rectify the problem, GM will replace the battery pack, even if there is an issue with on cell.

GM said less than one percent of the more than 10,000 Bolts sold to date were facing the problem, according to Automotive News. After a slow spread across the nation, Bolt sales numbers may climb now that the Bolt sales are rolling out nationwide this month."

https://www.motor1.com/news/178065/chevy-bolt-ev-battery-failure/

https://hardforum.com/threads/gm-notifies-early-chevy-bolt-owners-of-potential-battery-failure.1942663/

In August 2017 10% of the first shipment of Bolts fail stranding their owners, GM tries to minimize it saying less than 1% but it was more than 100 cars, it was 200 in the first shipment, not in this link: https://hardforum.com/threads/gm-notifies-early-chevy-bolt-owners-of-potential-battery-failure.1942663/

Fast forward to November 2020 and GM recalls some of the Bolts. Then they are silent for three months and in February 2021 say reducing the charge to 90% will be sufficient:

"The Bolt recall isn’t the only one

For those of you not keeping score, this isn’t the only LG related battery recall that has been going on lately. Hyundai did a similar recall to all their Kona EVs a month earlier. The Kona uses a very similar, but not identical, battery to the Bolt’s 2017-2019 model years. LG then also recalled some home stationary battery systems a month after the Bolt’s recall. All of this has fueled suspicions that it is more than just a localized problem and something more systemic in their entire battery technology. None of these recalls have been resolved yet. (I wonder if Tesla is having second thoughts about using LG?)"

Source: https://electrek.co/2021/02/09/bolt-recall-update-provided-by-chevy/

Then in August 2021 GM extends their recall to all Chevy Bolts: https://www.adaptautomotive.com/articles/1324-gm-extends-recall-to-all-chevy-bolts

Don your links were referring to deals made before the first recall and then after and now the whole shebang and Hyundais and stationary storage batteries are included in the recalls??

I can find no definitive commitment in writing by Tesla to use LG batteries save for China only and that with the caveat that Tesla intends to make their own as soon as possible. I believe we will find Tesla sticking with their own Gigafactories within a few years tops.

The next post shows your links, their dates, and my comments on each.

RV_ · November 1, 2021

Don, I was referring to S.Korean companies doing all the R&D for an ICE age car company without experience or patents or the money to do their own R&D. GM gave up and consigned their first EV to LG Chem who designed it all, made the car and the battery packs, and shipped the completed modules to the GM Orion plant for final assembly so it was a actually a South Korean car, designed and built in S. Korea, and shipped to the US for assembly with no part of it manufactured in the US at that time. The battery problems started immediately with 10%, 200 of the first shipment of 2000, just failing without power despite having a full charge or half charge. The new owners were stranded wherever they failed. The battery issues were unresolved as there were two problems and they fixed only one. I would surmise the current fires had something to do with the mysterious second issue written about briefly at the time.

I'll comment and excerpt from each of your five excellent links in the order you posted them The date of each and link you provided come first with the important excerpts IMO bolded and italicized as excerpts:

1. From March 9 2021 - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-lg-evs-exclusive-idUSKBN2B12HY

“Excerpt: Tesla has not yet agreed to a deal that would expand LG’s role in its supply chain beyond China, one of the sources said.

Last week, the Korean battery maker told Korean reporters it plans to build a U.S. factory where it would make battery cells for EVs and energy storage systems, to cater to U.S. and global customers as well as startups. It did not identify potential customers then, but one of the sources said it was hoping Tesla would buy the batteries.

In September, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk announced an ambitious plan to develop new cells in-house, prompting suppliers like LG and Panasonic to embrace the unproven technology or face risks of losing a major customer for the longer term.

The Korean supplier, a unit of LG Chem, has made samples for the so-called 4680 large-format cylindrical cells, said the sources, who asked not to be identified. It faces technological hurdles and the challenge of scaling up production, people familiar with the matter said.

“LG plans to produce 4680 cells at its new U.S. factory. They plan to build a new 4680 cell line to supply Tesla’s Giga Berlin in Europe,” one of the sources said, adding Spain is one of candidate for the European plant.

One of the sources said LG has never mass produced such large-format cylindrical cells, although increasing battery capacity is the correct call. “Tesla is a major customer, and LG can take risks,” another source said.

He said LG has not yet secured orders from Tesla for the 4680 cells, still under development. For now, Tesla is sharply boosting orders for 2170 cells used in the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles made in China, the source said.”

My comment: Old information before the August 2021 announcement of GM’s decision to recall all Bolts.

Under Musk’s oversight and using his new NCM battery designs LG may succeed as an EV battery supplier for Tesla. But that is using Tesla patented Battery tech. My earlier comments were when they did R&D for EV battery packs on their own, there were problems. Massive problems with the Bolt and Hyundai battery packs, both under massive recalls for fires currently. We have yet to see what batteries the Germans come up with for:

The Volkswagen Group sells passenger cars under the Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, RUF and Volkswagen marques.

Daimler AG who owns as of June 2021: Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner, Thomas Built Buses, Smart Automobile, Mercedes-Benz Bank, Detroit Diesel. Let’s remember 18 wheel rig tractors (HDT Trucks) are under development and battery buses are already in production and use around the world.

BMW Automobiles are marketed under the brands BMW, Mini and Rolls-Royce, and motorcycles are marketed under the brand BMW Motorrad.

They are making plans for manufacturing their own batteries. And of course Tesla Gigafactory Berlin is just now coming online along with the Tesla Gigafactory Austin Texas. The Fremont Gigafactory and Shanghai China Gigafactory complex and Supercharger factory are already in full operation.

2. From March 10, 2021 https://thedriven.io/2021/03/10/lg-energy-solutions-to-make-tesla-4680-batteries-sources-say/

LG Energy Solution to make Tesla 4680 batteries, sources say

Excerpt: “South Korean battery maker LG Energy Solution, which recently broke away from LG Chem, will make cells in Tesla’s new 4680 battery format, sources have said.

The 4680 battery size (which stands for 46mm diameter and 80mm length) was revealed at Tesla’s Battery Day in September 2020.

Although at the time the 4680 battery reveal was somewhat of an anti-climax – due to expectations the EV maker would reveal a “million-mile battery” – the new size will enable less wasted space between the cylindrical cells and hence more kilowatt-hours capacity in the same space.

Also, the introduction of Tesla’s patented tabless electrode technology which reduces the need for cooling in turn means equates to reduction in the cost of making batteries.

While EV-Volumes says that it will be pouch-style batteries (the kind you find in a mobile phone) that will dominate the EV market by 2025, Tesla’s preference for cylindrical batteries stems from its early deal with Panasonic to use its 18650, and later 21700 cells.

Nevertheless, Tesla has been piloting a line for its 4680 battery at its Kato Road facility in Fremont, California, which it will make at its Texas and Berlin gigafactories.

LG declined to confirm the news with Reuters and Tesla was not immediately available for comment, and the source said a deal was not yet secured between the two companies.”

My comment: Old information before the August 2021 announcement of GM’s decision to recall all Bolts.

Tesla is currently still partnered with Panasonic batteries in the US and may be experimenting with LG production of their battery designs, to their specs, and using their patents, in China.

3. November 23, 2020 - https://electrek.co/2020/11/23/tesla-secures-battery-cell-supply-from-lg-chem-model-y-production-china/

Tesla (TSLA) secures battery cell supply from LG Chem for Model Y production in China Note old news from 2020 contradicts the more current news (after the LG battery debacles with the Bolt and the Hyundai EVs catching fire.) The 2021 news not committing yet to LG Chem contractually.

Excerpt:

“In China, Tesla currently uses CATL battery cells with an LFP chemistry for the cheaper version of its Model 3 sedan and LG Chem batteries for the longer range and more expensive versions.

The new deal with LG Chem comes amid the South Korean battery manufacturer being under scrutiny over recalls of the Hyundai Kona EV and Chevy Bolt EV over potential risk of battery fire.

Both vehicles are using LG Chem cells.

Tesla has recently announced plans to produce its own battery cells, but it will take years before it can ramp up production to support its electric vehicle programs and the automaker said that it still plans to use a mix of suppliers for the foreseeable future.”

My comment: Old information before the August 2021 announcement of GM’s decision to recall all Bolts.

Musk is backpedaling for good reason. Like the inability of other large corporations to pivot and make big changes nimbly like a large ocean liner take miles to do a turn a smaller nimbler craft can do in feet, Musk is seeing similar issues with LG as seen in the coverups at Boeing, who with knowledge of issues with their 737s in production, chose to ignore and or suppress them. CYA by execs are not as possible at Tesla. As a stockholder, these kind of decisions are what I appreciate about Musk’s leadership.

4. From March 10, 2021: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-battery-cells-lg-supplier-us/

Tesla's new battery cells may come from LG as supplier eyes new US site, report says

Excerpt:

“Tesla does not operate a public relations department to field requests for comment, and LG didn't immediately return Roadshow's request for comment on the information. However, Tesla's new, so-called "Biscuit Tin" cells are reportedly all-or-nothing for LG, after Tesla said it would develop the new technology in-house. For the supplier, it needed to embrace the new tech or risk losing Tesla as a customer, according to the report.

According to the report, LG eyes a US site to supply both Tesla and other customers, plus a site in Europe to support the carmaker's upcoming plant in Berlin. Spain is a possible candidate for the new European LG site, one of Reuters' sources said.

If LG expanded to supply Teslas in the US, it would make for two suppliers in the company's domestic market. Panasonic has long been the automaker's main source of batteries, and is also working on Tesla's upcoming battery cell design here in the US at the Gigafactory in Nevada. In China, the carmaker also sources batteries from CATL.”

My comment: Old information before the August 2021 announcement of GM’s decision to recall all Bolts.

Alludes more accurately to Tesla’s plans to go in house as soon as possible and produce batteries for themselves and other brands in their US factories. Musk may or may not license their patents, but at this point I think not as Musk is going for being a major BATTERY supplier for other brands too, eventually.

5. From Jun. 2nd 2021: https://electrek.co/2021/06/02/tesla-first-lg-new-ncma-nickel-based-battery-cells/

Tesla is expected to be first to use LG’s new NCMA nickel-based battery cells

Excerpt:

“The new batteries are reportedly going to be used in Tesla Model Y vehicles being produced at Gigafactory Shanghai:

“LG Energy Solution originally planned to use L&F’s NCMA cathode materials for the Model Y and LC Chem’s NCMA cathode materials for GM’s pickup truck Hammer. However, it changed the plan as LG Chem has successfully developed NCMA cathode materials that have the same nickel content as L&F products.”

Tesla is currently ramping up production of the Model Y electric SUV at Gigafactory Shanghai, which is expected to contribute significantly to the automaker’s growth during the second half of the year.”

My comment: Old information before the August 2021 announcement of GM’s decision to recall all Bolts.

The NCMA Battery tech was not invented or perfected by LG but by a S. Korean company called L&F. Musk already knew about it and LG being in S Korea jumped on that. See the below December 2020 link

Now for my link from Dec 17, 2020: https://english.etnews.com/20201217200003#:~:text=However%2C%20a%20South%20Korean%20company%20called%20L%26F%20developed,LG%20Energy%20Solution%20to%20commercialize%20its%20NCMA%20battery.

Excerpt: “However, a South Korean company called L&F developed NCMA cathode material with 90% nickel content that was then used by LG Energy Solution to commercialize its NCMA battery.

During “Battery Day” that was held back in September, CEO Elon Musk stated that the company would make “high-nickel battery” with high nickel content in its cathode material as the main battery for the company’s electric vehicles. LG Energy Solution and L&F are seen as companies that are most advanced in high-nickel battery development.

It is expected that there will be a rapid transition to next-generation batteries as high-nickel NCMA batteries become commercialized. It was expected that NCMA batteries would be commercialized in 2022 initially. GM and LG Energy Solution established a joint venture and decided to start mass-production of NCMA batteries called “Ultium Battery” in 2022.
However, Tesla’s decision start mounting NCMA batteries in its electric vehicles in 2021 has started battery transition and ignited competitions. It is reported that GM has also pushed forward its plan to mass-produce Ultium Batteries.

LG Energy Solution stated that it cannot disclose any information related to its customers while it is true that it plans to commercialize NCMA batteries sometime during 2021. L&F also refused to confirm any information related to its customers.”

However, the industry believes that LG Energy Solution and L&F are preparing for supplies of NCMA batteries that will go to Tesla’s factory in China as both L&F and LG Energy Solution are expanding their respective plants.”
Staff Reporter Yun, Geonil | benyun@etnews.com & Staff Reporter Kim, Jiwoong | jw0316@etnews.com

Edited November 1, 2021 by RV_

RV_ · November 1, 2021

Don, comments? I would like any links to credible sources that Tesla has made any commitment to buy LG beyond experimenting with them in the China plant only. Were I Musk I'd go to the patent holder and buy the patent for whatever batteries I wanted or several of them and just go ahead now and become the battery supplier to the world.

I think anything said about using LG Chem, or their split off wholly owned subsidiary for battery production LG Energy Systems, before the August 24 GM recall of all the rest of the Bolts ever made, by any EV manufacturer is out the window and LG is up against the ropes.

Having said that my next TV will be an LG OLED TV as it is my understanding that they are the biggest flat screen manufacturer in the world and makes the best top shelf and budget screens.

And they lost the cell phone wars:

"LG has officially quit making phones – here's what's next"

"Second, LG says this means it'll be free to focus resources on growth areas, citing a whole list of sectors where its brand is better positioned: "electric vehicle components, connected devices, smart homes, robotics, artificial intelligence and business-to-business solutions, as well as platforms and services."

https://www.techradar.com/news/lg-has-officially-quit-making-phones-heres-whats-next

Timing is everything. That was in April 2021 before their August 24 Bolt final recall on all of them ever produced. I don't know how well positioned they are in the EV area which I agree is a tremendous growth area.

Edited November 1, 2021 by RV_

RV_ · November 1, 2021

On 10/30/2021 at 8:25 PM, Kirk W said:

You must have some tax sheltered 401k/IRA/457/403b, or such that is diversified?

I forgot your second two part question/assertion. I must???? Yes we have an IRA with five funds diversified by a growth fund, an income fund we roll dividends back into, a small cap fund and a large cap fund as well as a tech fund, all in our 401k we started in 1990. Our tax advisor has us liquidating it this month as our Rivian purchase gives is a $7500.00 tax credit for this year too, and we will eat the rest and be done with it and it pays 100% for our Rivian R1T EV tow truck.

Funds: Let me remind you that funds are investments too and no investment is 100% secure - none. Diversification did not help many who thought they were 100% secure. Some made it through 2007-2009, some fund holders lost. You like to mention "experts," favorably when they agree with your views, and derisively when they don't. You don't have to invest as I do, in fact I'd rather you didn't. But holding only funds and thinking the picks of others are diversified against all corrections like the great recession diversification according to the experts do not guarantee preservation of your funds.

Here are some fund "bubble bursting" (pun int.) "expert" facts about when the markets correct:

Kiplinger's Finnace Magazine article from 2008:

"It was an ugly year for fund investors. Most stock funds bled red ink as share prices plunged because of worries that falling housing prices and a growing number of mortgage defaults would destabilize the nation's financial system. The collapse of Bear Stearns in March and growing fears over the summer that mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might follow gave the bears plenty of ammunition. Adding to the gloom was the rise in fuel prices, which serve as a de facto tax on hard-pressed Americans and wreak havoc on industries such as airlines, autos and trucking.

The best of a sorry lot of diversified funds was the large-company growth category. That segment lost 6.1%, on average. Chaos in the financial sector was particularly harmful for value funds. The average financial-sector fund lost 34% over the past year, while large-company value funds, which often own a lot of banks and insurers, surrendered an average of 17%. Bill Miller, the bargain-hunting manager of Legg Mason Value who was lionized for once having beaten the market 15 straight years, cost his shareholders 36% over the past year."

Much more bad news about International funds etc in the Kiplinger article here. https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t041-c000-s002-mutual-fund-rankings-2008.html

Some of their few recommendations suffered as the crisis deepened in 2009 from the damage done in 2007-2008.

Next from US News and World Report Finance in 2009:

"The Decade's 10 Worst Fund Disasters

Even in a decade that has been defined by disasters, these 10 stand out.

Dec. 30, 2009 "When the dot-com bubble burst in early 2000, most investors thought the mutual fund industry couldn't sink any lower. Ten years and two recessions later, it now appears that they slightly misjudged the situation. In fact, for fund investors, this decade has been defined by a seemingly unending stream of blunders and disasters. Here are 10 of the worst:"

Source: https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/fund-observer/2009/12/30/the-decades-10-worst-fund-disasters

Are we diversified? We are diversified between our Real Property holdings tax sheltered, and paying tax free dividends and more as explained before, our stocks, our five funds in our 401k which we are taking our profits from which are putting into the buying the Rivian Tow Truck Our new Rivian truck purchase I made last week gives us a $7500.00 tax credit which we will need to pay 80% of the taxes from selling that last 401k which have only yielded ~4-5% except for the 2008-2009 Great recession years. We are adding Rivian stock and Starlink stock to our EV stock portfolio as soon as each executes their respective IPOs. I have been holding a block of liquid for Starlink since I bought my new block of Tesla stock last year. I am glad they were slower than expected as half now goes into the Rivian IPO which will be soon, and half into the Starlink IPO whenever they finally do their IPO.

It should be apparent to even the least tech savvy that EVs are not only here to stay but will be the only type of vehicle available in the next decade or two. As well we keep two year's worth of living expenses as cash on hand and emergency cash.

If you are happy with your investments I am happy for you. There is more than one way to skin a cat.

You are invited to stop by sometime and have a cuppa. Anytime.

Kirk W · November 2, 2021

4 hours ago, RV_ said:

I forgot your second two part question/assertion.

It was only a question as I was pretty sure that you were diversified, although recently you hadn't mentioned it. Some might conclude from your recent posts that you were mostly in individual stocks, which I was fairly sure was not the case, having read post of yours for quite a few years. I do find your comment about my use of the term "expert" as I put it that way because there are so many out there who at least profess to be expert in publications and such, yet since they often have differing opinions, one might have some doubts about their expertise.

4 hours ago, RV_ said:

You don't have to invest as I do, in fact I'd rather you didn't.

Since I have not said much about them I question your knowledge of what I am invested in or how. The fact that I am significantly older than you and have very different financial history makes it rather unlikely that our investments would be the same. I have found your investment postings interesting, but am puzzled that you seem to be offended by my asking? It would seem that you have been well satisfied with the results of yours, and that is good. As I am financially secure for the standard of living we desire, I think that I have done alright as well. With any luck at all, we will both be able to live as we wish for our remaining years. Investing, like most things in life is a very personal thing and each one must find the best way for themselves.

RV_ · November 2, 2021

Kirk you are right except that you told us all you only use a financial advisor and have a diversified portfolio and you are not alone and that methodology works for you. We have all, has has been mentioned by others, been pitched by financial managers and their portfolios only vary according to who they sell for. With all respect your age is immaterial, musk is a lot closer to my youngest kiddo's age and I'm with him. And you've been happy with you financial manager's choices so great. I'm glad you are going to stop pushing your methods. I explain mine never saying "you must have" some individual stocks you've researched yourself. As you've said yourself just above.

I am not offended. I answered. All through my posts I have laid out my thinking not platitudes as many do. And always tell folks not to do as I do because I have lost on ACB and NBEV. You can see me not pretend to expertise I don't have in the thread "Are You Still In?" Sharing my research and telling folks that unless they are playing with discretionaryfynds they can afford to lose don't rake my sharing as recommending anyone follow my advice. There are a lot of folks who are experts or wannabe's. Especially in financial ego driven discussions.

You "must" not have anything I think you should. But when you say no EV tow vehicles exist I have to correct that sunce it is untrue. We also see a lot of sour grapes comments.

Kirk remember the best revenge is living well, funeral flags are seven feet long, presentation flags are 5 feet long. 😉