Time to take profits?

[Barbaraok]

Decided to take our RMDs plus some profit early this year since we had some very nice profits and the market is somewhat overheated.  Nothing every goes straight up and I decided that we'd take our profits and put it in accounts that will be targeted towards purchases when the next correction comes.

Barb

 

[Kirk W]

1 hour ago, Barbaraok said:

Nothing every goes straight up and I decided that we'd take our profits and put it in accounts that will be targeted towards purchases when the next correction comes.

We are having similar thoughts. I just sent an email to my broker's office to check the amount of it this year. 

[justRich]

Cash should be a part of asset allocation.  It make sense to re-balance the AA.  But are you engaging in market timing? 
That money could be working for you until the end of the year.  
Alternatively, one could direct dividends and cap gains to a cash account as a hedge to a correction.

Personally, I think the market has legs and will run until the labor shortage, or the fed unexpectedly raises rates puts the brakes on the economy.  But for now, steady as she goes.

 

[Barbaraok]

Not engaging in market timing so much as we have some things planned for the next few months and seems reasonable to take profits as market goes up rather than after the peak.  Still have a large amount 'working' for us.   

[RV_]

Rich,

I'm at the other extreme. I have too much cash due an unexpected cash inheritance and just liquidated inherited property gains and am deciding what to do with it as it is sitting in two savings accounts earning next to nothing. My quandary is whether to invest it and hope it is up when we go to buy our house cash in CO. Or to leave it until we made the move and are house hunting. I will need about half of the cash as we will be selling this acreage and new house too. Acreage here in good neighborhoods sells the day it hits the market as the property we just sold was bid up $15k from asking. Crazy! We keep about a year of expense cash as our usual.

Ideas welcomed

[Twotoes]

How long before you buy your next house? If it is a year or less stay in cash. If it will be five years or more you need to invest now. Money sitting in a bank earning next to nothing for five years won’t even keep up with inflation. If it between one and five years it is a gamble either way. 

[RV_]

Two,

It will be within six to 18 months. We hope to move up there within six months and get an apartment to house hunt from. 

We have to sell almost everything like we did when we went full time. Houses up there sell the day listed almost too, which means we need to be there to get control of any property we want. This will be our last house, so it is quite different from all those military moves. They were all buy and sell for a profit, like the property and new house we're in now. This is new for us.

[Jim & Alice]

Just had an annual review with our long time FA... he feels that the heated market could go until 1st quarter 2019... but to be safe, go conservative now or 'soon'.

Still thinking on it.

 

[RV_]

I agree with your advisor Jim. I am waiting until the Model 3 production hiccups are resolved just like they did with the Roadster, Model S and the Model X. They are ramping up faster and are up 900% from last months Model 3 production. SO regardless of the market or others it will be mid year for me to reevaluate my position. We (Tesla, I own a small part) just went over the 200 DMA, and that should move up faster as the year rolls on. The top investors are calling for $400 by 1 August. I'm looking now for a financial advisor as my estate keeps increasing faster than I can learn new strategies to make it work well and gain at least 8-10% annually.

If indeed the markets turn bear by next year the big three automakers here will be facing bankruptcy yet again because they have nothing, zip, nada, in the way of BEVs (BEV= Battery Electric Vehicle). The closest they have come was GM contracting Goldstar of Korea, of cheap VCR and TV fame in the 80s, to design, build, and ship the Bolt to GM for final assembly. Several hundred of which according to GM had battery packs fail and strand the occupants wherever they stopped with no warning. The Nissan Leaf will come out with a decent range this year, going from ~80 MPC (Miles Per Charge) to ~ 250 MPC, and compete against the Model 3 directly.

Despite a lot of talk and concept car mock-ups, no other manufacturer has a BEV for sale in every state of the US today but Tesla and Nissan. Our local Shreveport and Bossier City Chevy dealers have no Bolts, and say they will not carry them either in the future because of poor sales. The Bolt can't even be test driven here or closer than Dallas, a six hour round trip for us.

I would definitely get out of oil investments before next January. The Saudis and their neighboring middle eastern nations are getting out of oil as fast as they can. All of the first world nations are banning fossil fuels for everything within ten to 30 years which is very fast. I expect it to go exponential and see in 15 years that the American and the other nations auto makers that have no BEVs to sell with quality will be again bankrupt. Chevy Volts and Hyundai PHEVs (PHEV = Plug In Hybrid Electric Vehicles) are only competing with Toyota's Prius PHEV technology they could have copied since they came out in 2000, 17 years ago. Toyota stuck to their hydrogen guns too long and are now behind the power curve. Tesla, Nissan, and perhaps Hyundai will be the big three BEV auto manufacturers. I doubt the others can come up with a BEV this late in the game.

Despite US support for oil we sell a lot of cars overseas. 80% of some company sales are in China! China is outlawing Fossil fueled vehicles, along with Europe, Canada, and much of the rest of the world.

All this, as we face the results of the longest and greatest bull market in our history, and speculate as to when the end is in sight.

Can't time it, and early may be better. But lots of folks in the other thread, "Are you still In?" held off for years and missed all the profits. As well folks keep telling me not to be greedy and take my money off the table. Tesla went up $19.83 today. That is a $19, 830 gain for me in one day on paper. I already took my money and about a 5-8% profit years ago and am playing with gains only. 

I am quite frankly not going to blow this with the advice of another. NO financial advisor at USAA or that I have spoken with in the last eight years Tesla has been public would have urged me to buy Tesla or even to keep holding it after they went to 100. I sold just 20% to get my money back and take a $5k profit. And have made that up since. So I am not talking from an on paper only perspective.

There are several other dynamic stocks that I believe will be good wealth maintaining positions to weather any storm. But I am going to have to do a lot of research.

So do all who read this.