Rivian is ‘the one’ that can challenge Tesla: Morgan Stanley

[RV_]

I just made another investment in the EV market last month and invested in Rivian on their IPO, Nov 10th 2021. I also ordered a Rivian R1T truck to replace our last gasser - our much loved 2019 Subaru Forester. That will make us all battery electric including all our hand tools, and yard tools/machines. I even sold our gas cans. We have a Dewalt Compound Miter Saw and a Ridgid Contractor's table saw and a Toro Leaf vacuum that are plug in electric, but no gas machines anymore. I do not miss the noise and fumes either.

My Thoughts: I believe Rivian will be like Tesla was just after IPO. It will likely take a year or two for the naysayers to back off and there will be shorts because like Tesla they won't make a profit for a while and will be volatile for a bit. I bought Tesla on IPO in 2010 and it was flat for almost two years until they got into full production.

But Rivian has two niche markets Tesla let slide. They are starting as the only full EV truck for sale today,soon to be joined by others. Vivian has a lot of unique design features and capabilities perfect for Colorado. No other manufacturer has a truck in the works for production until 2022-2024!

As well there is no real competition in EV delivery vans. Amazon is their biggest investor and also has said they will buy all the RV vans that Rivian can make up to a large number. As well Ford has a small piece of Rivian originally to produce a Ford EV together. Rivian/Ford backed out of the joint vehicle deal.

Their SUV is closer to a Chevy Blazer than Tesla's mid size Model Y SUV like I have so that is another probable money maker. But I hope they focus on the Truck and the delivery van to get to profit quicker then Tesla did.

I can't wait to get our truck! It is too long for our garage and I don't expect delivery until mid to late 2022 or early 2023. We already sold our house cash to our son for him to rent until they return from Germany in three years. I paid cash for this place and am making more than 30% profit on it too! So we are as bought into Rivian as we are into Tesla where we tripled our money in ~18 months. (Bought at $350 and it has stayed above $1050 with a few dips and rises it was up to $1072 Wednesday

If Rivian dips again below $100 I will buy another block and hold long for at least a few years. Banks no longer have what I need in either safety (remember the bail outs? Look up the rules called Bank Bail-ins where they can take our deposits if they fail.) I will stay in real property, a few stocks, and funds for now, and a year's living expenses liquid, along with my block waiting for a Starlink IPO. Or maybe more Rivian if it drops below $100. Those are my investment/fun strategies today. (Yes, 0-60 in 3 seconds in an AWD truck that can do tank turns and rock climb stock with just a tire change IS fun)

Excerpt:

"Wed, December 8, 2021 -

It’s been nearly a month since EV manufacturer Rivian (RIVN) went public on Nov. 10 with an initial offering price of $78 a share. Soon after the IPO, the company’s stock price surged to over $165, but has since cooled down to where it trades just over $110 today. According to a recent Morgan Stanley Research (MS) report, Morgan Stanley initiates on Rivian with an “overweight” rating and a price target of $147, citing Rivian’s potential to be a challenger to Tesla (TSLA).

“Rivian’s compelling product, strong management, and deterministic access to capital are underpinned by a strategic relationship with [Amazon] (AMZN) to decarbonize the final mile,” the report reads. “We see it as ‘the one’ that can challenge Tesla.”

With production and deliveries of vehicles expected this quarter, Morgan Stanley touted the capability and desirability of Rivian’s R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV, noting that the vehicles are standouts in the market at the $80,000 price point. The report also pointed to Rivian’s electric delivery vans as being a unique offering from the EV manufacturer.

“The electric delivery van (EDV) has the potential to dominate the fast growing final mile EV fleet which has been largely unaddressed by the EV market until now,” the report reads.

Morgan Stanley is ultimately bullish on the outlook for orders of the EDV, upgrading its order estimate as Amazon makes efforts to electrify its delivery fleet.

“We think the 100k unit order from AMZN (from 2019) is a stale number. We think closer to 300k units is more likely through 2025/2026,” the report reads. “Rivian is a ‘call option’ on AMZN’s desire to decarbonize its delivery/fulfillment footprint in a highly visible way… delivering packages on your street multiple times per day.”

They go on to enumerate the three areas of risk they see in the full article here:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-rivian-as-tesla-challenger-issues-overweight-rating-162911681.html

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by RV_