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Tesla announces their earnings for the Quarter


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As I have done many a time before I am telling everyone about a possible buy opportunity for Tesla. I am not telling anyone to buy if it drops, but I am long so know that, and I will buy more if it drops to 200 or less. Most price targets for Tesla are at or around $325. The shorts and short term investors are flighty lately, well, truth be told they are always flighty on TSLA, making it a volatile stock for all but the long term like me. Forbes echoed that sentiment. This earnings statement will likely pose a loss from one time expenses like the situation when they announced in advance that they would be stopping Roadster production in 2012 and not selling any more cars while they built the factory to produce all of Tesla's models. Pundits who claimed their year of Capital investment (2012) as losses were just spinning their own agendas. I have never advised on any other stock, nor implied any knowledge of investing. Just Tesla as can be seen since 2011 in the thread here "Are You Still In?" And in pieces I wrote here repeating the news about Tesla since 2003. There may well be a buy opportunity coming up by next week. As with all market decisions, if the chart in the Forbes article proves out, it may even be a bit easier to guage when to get in, despite the fact that market timing is impossible, charts from Forbes of not. Consider this just a heads up.


Excerpt from Forbes:


"Tesla Motors TSLA +1.35% (TSLA) reports its third quarter results next week and it is a reasonable expectation that the price will drop. Shrewd investors and traders will want to watch the price action closely. If the price doesn’t fall too far on the day after earnings, it could represent an excellent opportunity for the adventurous buyer, or for those who believe in the Tesla dream.


The reason this earnings announcement may trigger a dramatic move to the downside is that recent price action suggests investors are nervous. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has showed himself to be highly effective at marketing via Twitter TWTR -0.79% in preparation for the major launch of two new car models earlier this month. But the effect was short lived.


Shares of TSLA moved higher leading up to the event, but dropped sharply lower thereafter. That’s not because the new models announced were bad, to the contrary. The models were better than hoped for by some enthusiasts, but the cars add complexity to the company’s business model. Investors need to estimate the production cost of these cars, the profitability of their pricing and the estimated length of their production schedule. The new announcement asked investors to have more faith in the company’s plans, not less.


The obfuscation inherent in the answers to these questions adds cumulative uncertainty to investors’ outlook on the stock and its company. In any other environment, shareholders might be forgiving enough to hang on for the ride. But in this environment of nervous, profit-taking investors, it is possible that just a little more uncertainty might be asking too much from the more skeptical portion of the TSLA investor base.


Exactly how many are skeptical enough to sell out after earnings is an unknowable quantity. Technical Analysis is one of the few tools that offer techniques for estimating what happens when investors taken emotional, non-calculated responses to a stock. For example, consider this principle, that when stock prices change trend from up to down, the downward move will often cover a distance similar to the upward trend, but in the opposite direction. This projection is depicted below (see chart)."


That article is here with the very interesting chart: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/10/31/teslas-unusual-risk-over-upcoming-earnings/


And this from the International Business Times (IBT)


"Tesla Third Quarter 2014: Analysts Predict $3.5M In Net Profit, One-Time Charges Will Swing Earnings To A Loss"

That here: http://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-third-quarter-2014-analysts-predict-35m-net-profit-one-time-charges-will-swing-1708669


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I have been in and out of Tesla at least 3 times. I might get back in the coming week. But the swings are to volatile for me to stay in for very long. But I guess you can say that about the entire market the past month. Fortunately I am diversified enough so that when the market goes up or down, something of mine swings the other way.

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I agree if one needs to have the money to make more than one play. I just hang around long term. We do not even see many of the spikes as anything more than normal. in the last two weeks when it was dropping we were just interested in how much it dropped, not any fear or thoughts of selling. We have been through 50% drops and more in the past four years since IPO with it. Lots of folks said I had nerves of steel. Nahh. I am playing with the house money now save five thousand from the last 10k block I bought when it dropped to 122. I caught it in the low 130s by the time I thought it was done and on the way back. That is why I posted this, the chart in the first article. I bought once in 2010 on IPO at 17 something, twice at 22.5, and again at 130-ish in 2013. We will sell if need be at more than 500 IMHO.


I really think Tesla, like Google and several others, will sell for over $1000.00 a share, but I always make conservative estimates. I had said originally I would stay until the first part of 2012. I had sold a bit at 90 to take my original investment money off the table. It has kissed close to a quarter once. We'll see. Remember he also has the only American made space vehicle rocket engines for Space X that he engineered. Orbital just had one of the Russian engines explode, and the launch alliance ( Boeing and Lockheed ) also cannot manufacture their own engines - they are using the Russkie engines too!! Elon Musk's SpaceX ( Sole Proprietorship by him) is the only American company making their own proven lift vehicles for orbital missions and beyond. I believe that he will have the spare change to see all his dreams through any bumps in his roads, and I have already seen mine come true in the process, got my in laws to finally buy in when they were $70 a share. He also holds a big block of OIS he bought at the same time, both his first ventures into individual stocks.


Between the megafactory, the already built Supercharger system which already allows for free travel for Teslas across the US with 30 minute charging, and is still being expanded here, in Europe, and now also in China.


All capital expenditures not losses, but they still show break even or profits. Want to bet we see WSJ and Barron's articles claiming these capital investments, New model R&D/Megafactory for cheaper batteries for cars and Solar systems/Superchargers worldwide/then the next Model for the masses R&D and certification, are all losses! Just like when they were building the factory for the Model S. Watch.


I understand the in and out if you can sell high and buy again low. But the one time I thought I was going to do that was when I sold some at 90 disregarding the same chart for the midline that the article above shows.

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Options Traders Are Getting Wary Ahead of Tesla’s Earnings



Today's 3 dollar plus loss and all the articles:



Tomorrow after the bell Musk will announce and the stock might well drop a bunch providing a buy opportunity, or not. Thursday's closing bell will tell.

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Who invests in what is up to them. If you or anyone else wants to get in it may be in the next few weeks a good buy opportunity may emerge. You need to click on the link and digest the chart there. I can't set prices for others. All I can say is that the last time the same events occurred a buy opportunity came in and I bought again in the $130s.


I was posting this for folks like Duke and several others here who have been in and out of Tesla. If you look at the pundits targets in the 320s, and the track record of the last year, you will either be excited and looking for your price, or horrified and would not even consider a stock as volatile as Tesla.


If I could tell you how low it will go I could have bought and sold three or four times already and be sitting on a million give or take. I'm not that smart. Just smart enough to hold, and stay, long.


I'm pretty tapped out right now from buying a very nice low mileage 2006 Dodge Cummins 2500 quad cab and short bed cash. So it will be a few months before I'll build up savings again to the point of needing to move it where it can work, not stagnate.


The better question is how low it needs to go for you, and if you want to select a very volatile stock. I'm comfortable with it. I never recommend any stocks because I only know one. And I've missed a few buy ops early on because I am not sitting on pins and needles.


If you like fun, predictable though it might be, look for Murdoch's rags, WSJ, and Barron's to try some ways to "spin" Tesla as scary some way. If you are looking for a double your money long term buying Tesla at around 200 might be a good bet. But you'd need to hold it for more than a couple of years.

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  • 2 months later...

Thanks Jack! Good pic! I think even the doubters will have to give in and acknowledge that the disruption is past the tipping point. GM, shortly after Musk made his patents available free, trademarked "Chevy Bolt" for their first EV. They have had examples of his cars since 2008 when they went into full initial production of the Roadsters. But still could not make a competitive EV.

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