A Look Back to December 2004 Internet and Personal Electronics Transition

[RV_]

I posted this here in 2004 and on my website and found it great because we did do it all.

It is titled "Electronics Lagging!"

We have the technology now.  Why aren’t we producing the products we want/need for communications and entertainment now, that are surely coming soon anyway?  Think of all the resources that we would save by reducing all the peripheral machines we use daily to one and a slave unit.  Imagine being able to connect to the net with a notebook computer while waiting for a doctor’s appointment in a high-speed wireless mode.  Imagine having one just one DVD/CD/CDROM/mini disc recorder, and one player.

 

            I have had it with the weenie excuse that the technology is not there and the market doesn't justify it!  As when the paradigms shifted numerous times in the past (Hey! didn't vinyl (and paper) records disappear fast??) what makes money now must apparently be squeezed for it's last penny, before it is time to produce what's already possible.  OK my trends aren't earth shattering.  And that is what is so significant about them.  Should have been here years ago!

 

1.   RECORDABLE DIGITAL MEDIA: We have Recordable CD-ROMs. recordable Mini Discs. And we have . . .  DVD players?  The CD caught on because it resolved the inherent flaws of wear on LPs and data loss from magnetic media like cassette and reel tape.  Now  we have the technology to produce the finest reproduction and recording products all across the spectrum (video, music, home recordings, computer software copies and back up),in one machine.  But is it in production?  No way.  Why?  My bet is the same as the previous.  The biggies have so much revenue from the existing VCR’s, tape decks, etc., that to debut a product that would so obviously put all other forms of media out faster than the LP went out would eliminate all the other products that they are selling so cheaply now.  Or would it?  It just would involve transitioning over a few years, that’s all!  The system of today should be one CD/CDV/DVD/mini disc machine that both plays and records, attached to our computer, stereo, and TV monitor.  (It would play and record discs for movies, audio, computer CDROMS, and play em back.  Of course that would also eliminate: back up tapes (yes some still use tape backups), VCR’s, tape decks, video and audio tapes, CD players, Zip drives, built in DVD’s and CDROM’s, etc.!  Storage reduced dramatically, components reduced to one fifth of the hardware we have now, aesthetics enhanced, and the quality of recordings permanently perfect and faithful to the source.  A CD/CDV/DVD/minidisc player would be added to provide the source for recording.  Of course we’d copy all our current media to it immediately.  The artist’s copyright fears of mass duplication that some tout as the reason is of course absurd.  WE CAN COPY THE MOVIES AND MUSIC TO TAPE NOW WITH OUR RECORDERS!  DUH!  What’s the difference?  Of course those with vast video collections would keep their VCR’s.  (I know some folks that still have 8-tracks!)

 

2.     WIRELESS DATA AND VOICE COMMUNICATIONS: This is the biggest bust of them all.  Currently we have wireless modems available that could transmit at speeds in excess of 150k BPS easily and they are not allowed into the nets. Most of the biggies are now deploying limited services designed to make the most money and provide the least service!  So now we are back to . . the cellular subcarrier systems of CDPD, CDMA, and Ram (the slowest) with no compression enhancements and of course in the control of the big phone companies.  Why?  Because the longer we stay on wireless phones as they exist now, the more their revenues are!  Milking the existing infrastructure is the prime directive in that industry.  There have been a few non-commercial efforts to create a national standard that would allow the wireless to eventually replace the landline and they just seemed to disappear.  Bill Gates sees it coming and just signed a partnership with Ericsson to deploy wireless Computer/data/communications units in two years!  Yay Bill! 

 

3.     Satellite systems, which will always be limited by the number and wattage of the transponders uplifted into orbit, have, and will always have, limitations and expenses that ground based wireless systems can avoid. 

 

There is on the very near horizon a paradigm shift of major consequence.  Wireless will certainly replace wired and the infrastructure must re-align with the interests of the consumer in mind.  Currently Internet phone programs are challenging all long-distance fees and will only get better.  Mediaring.com, and dialpad.com now provide almost perfect voice calls, free, over the net.  And in a test with a friend in Norway, provided better sound and less echo and delay than some connections I’ve gotten with the normal providers on a transatlantic call.  It is not perfect, but very usable now!  And free!  What’ll happen to the phone companies then?  No long distance revenues, no wired subscribers, down to revenues from the Internet trunk lines only (and they own less of those than you’d believe.)  But there are more revenues than you’d think in a wireless environment.  Many countries have poor or no real landline infrastructure.  Think China. Think rural India.  Think emerging middle classes.  Think how much cheaper to hook em up with towers instead of laying hard wire.  Quadrillions in profit.

 

I am not a conspiracy theorist.  I think that is apparent.  I merely raise some questions.  The above are doing what the big three Automakers in the US did all throughout the 70's and the early 80's - serving up junk to the American public because they thought we'd buy junk indefinitely.  The Japanese almost put em out of business before they wised up!  The big four in landline services, and the big six in consumer electronics, and the American broadcasting consortium, are in for the ride of their lives.  If they lose in the end, I won't even feel the least bit of pity for em.  Like a hangover, it's a self inflicted injury.

dg