ToddF

In Japan too? (Nikkei 39,000 in 1989 and 23,000 now).

Back to my original post... It is possible to retire early. (This was the main thrust of my original post - not a focus on investment strategies). It is possible to plan a secure retirement without reliance on the stock market. Even with our conservatively positioned and modest portfolio, our funds don't run out (ever). (This runs contrary to what Wall Street would like you to believe). The unprecedented move to zero interest rates will unravel (process currently in play). Again, no idea of the extent to which gains will unwind etc. 1,300 point swing in the DOW last week and wide moves in 10 year T bill rate are reminders of what can happen. Sometimes the recovery happens too late . I like to cite the Japanese Nikkei currently at 22,532. (It topped at 39,000 in 1989). It's anecdotal but a point worth pondering. US and Japan are 2 of largest economies. Japan's rates dropped to zero long before ours and everyone said it could never happen here. As to advisors, most under perform (hence the boom in indexing) the market and many got flushed out in the aftermath of '08. Financial services firms bring in new blood (kids in their 20's) at Dow 6,000 and restart the cycle. Heading out tomorrow for a 9 week tour of warmer places! Life is good! Todd in Minnesota - temps dropping like a rock!

It sounds like most of your l gains occurred between 2008-2018. (There is no historical precedent for this period economically). I have jumped into many an investment and rode out periods of loss and decline. I could retire yesterday if 9-10% returns were assured (before taking into account inflation)...they aren't. No idea what future returns will look like, but the future is unlikely to look like a repeat of '08-18. The next 10-15 years are the most critical for a pre-retiree or young retiree in their late 50s now. One reaches a point in their late 70's (if they are still alive) where gains are on paper for the next generation. Periods of grueling negative investment returns are very difficult to go through. Don't you remember the 70's? Todd

Took a look at one online and am amazed at what they pack into the unit. Absolutely gorgeous, if you can tow it and back it in and set it up, you will be all set. It doesn't look like something you would travel around in staying 2-4 nights here and 2-4 nights there...too big and too much work. Seems like it works best to stay at least a month in a place before moving. Nothing wrong with that if that is the intention. Your post here is a good start, I recommend talking online and in campgrounds to folks who are set up similar to what you are contemplating to get as much information as possible before pulling the plug. I notice a lot of 5th Wheels don't have slide toppers. That would be one of my questions for someone who lives in one, is that an issue? The one I looked at online is gorgeous, truly amazed at what they pack in and now I can see why they are so popular.

Or, live for today and save for tomorrow since there is a good chance tomorrow will come. 🤗

Here is a good story on the topic of early retirement... How to Retire in Your 30s With $1 Million in the Bank https://nyti.ms/2N8ClOn It has some good links to things like Reddit (didn't know what it was) 62 is looking better and better with no guilt or shame!

In my tax practice of 30 years I deal primarily with individuals. I can state unequivically that the single biggest surprise in retirement is the unexpected death of a spouse/ partner or self. "Early " retirement at 62 (or sooner) really makes sense in this context if one can afford it. Determining whether or not it is doable takes a fair amount of analysis but worth the effort. My biggest fear is working until 67 and kicking the bucket before 70. Appreciate words of encouragement here.

Recognizing the risk of premature death or chronic illness, no one can rule out either one entirely, We are taking the lead from threads here on death risk and fulltimer lifestyles as something very attractive. We will keep S+B and spend 4-6 months each in RV and townhome. Debt free at 62. SS at 62 Budget padded and adj for inflation. Inc health insurance and out of pocket. No pensions. Savings invested in Roth, Muni Funds, Trad/Tax Def Plans. 80% CD, US Treasury, St Bond. 20%Stock/Bal Fund. Expected rate of return (average) 2.8% for 5 years, then bumped up to 3.3%.(rising rate environment). No income tax from 62 on after sale of business, office building ,and 2nd home. No kids. 11 nieces and nephews all lined up to inherit big bucks from parents and grandparents. Mental adjustment to taking SS early (big cut) and spending down assets currently in progress. Want to spend more time RVing and snowbirding. S+B ideal, paid for, updated, HOA minimal maintenance. Lock up and go. Neighbor brings in mail. Simplisafe monitor from phone Inc temp. July 1 2023 target early retirement date. We have been self employed, no pensions. Healthcare (assuming they don't change it) is factored into existing programs. Can't see any reason to keep working after 62. Getting sick of doing taxes (30 years). Household budget will be 6K monthly. No income tax, that is one of the goals ...not pay income and SE taxes anymore. Have been paying big income + SE taxes for many years. There is hope for the self-employed!

Last year, Vanguard asked it's investors (pre-retirees and retirees) what regrets they had and what did they learn about retirement financial issues and otherwise...it makes for interesting reading. https://vanguardblog.com/2017/04/18/the-coulda-shoulda-woulda-behind-every-retirement-story/ You really have to inject your own circumstances into the picture and use these types of resources to test your decisions and thinking. You only get 1 crack at this and no one wants to screw it up.

Saw this from the motley fool thought it was pertinent to the thread.. The Motley Fool: Why Smart People Take Social Security at 62. https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/08/13/why-smart-people-take-social-security-at-62.aspx I was one of those who always advocated "FRA". 62 might not work for folks who don't have a pension or their own savings. I say " if you can fund at least 20 years of retirement on SS at 62, pensions, personal savings etc, go for it if you want to." The risk of running out of $ at age 82 is very low. But it does happen, albeit infrequently.

Seniors run out of life (prematurely) much more often than they run out of money.

Scott's post is "right on". But the forum serves as a "sounding board" which can help folks make important decisions. This thread really got me thinking about the options. All decisions will ultimately involve certain tradeoffs and risks. I am in the midst of doing "an about face" on early retirement, always thinking one should wait until FRA (Full Retirement Age) to take SS. In our case, the numbers work out for early retirement at 62. I am sick of saving, sick of paying taxes, and sick of winter. ER puts me in a position where I would no longer be paying taxes, spending down instead of building up, and get the h*ll out of MN around Nov 1 and come back Apr 1.

The issue of early retirement can be looked at as a mathematical equation. (Others have mentioned that money out can't be more than money in.) Figure out what you live on now and then do an estimated budget under the early retirement scenario. Include distributions from your IRAs and other accounts as part of your cash flow. Ask for tax advice if you're not sure of your tax situation in early retirement. Some states have expanded Medicaid that can make health insurance affordable. (e.g. MN) (Republicans are trying to kill it.) Don't be afraid of running out of money (assuming you have something to start with.) As has been pointed out, life doesn't go on forever. Have a plan A and a plan B. I was inspired by a guy who blogged about his escape from a job he hated and into full timing in a Lazy Daze. He wrote a short book on how to do it on modest means. (Andy Baird). I still work during tax season but decided to semi-retire and spend lots of time doing the things I enjoy. Most financial advisors would probably think I'm crazy. (I am 57 and implemented this more laid back life style 7 years ago.) Put it all down on paper and look for a bean counter like me who can validate your numbers. Ignore the financial industries hype, you need 1.5 million etc. They lie for their own benefit. No one goes through that kind of money in retirement, early or otherwise. Todd

We have owned 4 RVs...our newest is a '17 Minnie Winnie 31D. It is definitely worth checking out... if you buy new, plan to do a lot of camping the first year and mentally prepare for the need to have the "bugs" worked out. Between the dealer and the service dept in Forest City, we have made at least 5 visits. The issues have been resolved at no charge to our satisfaction. We've never had any problems with the 3 slides, the new system is very reliable as far as we are concerned. We love the extra room (our Lazy Daze was fine but not as spacious) and really enjoy life inside with the slides out. And our 13 year old Lazy Daze (we bought used) was anything but trouble free. When we got ready to buy a new Class C, Lazy Daze scared us away with their price and lack of innovation. Very glad we switched to Winnebago. Lots of the issues that cropped up with the Laze Daze were LAZY DAZE stuff, not Ford or part manufacturer.

As a footnote to this thread, I recently toured the South researching potential snowbird locations. 3 options discovered that are very economical that could potentially fit into your plans in the short term or long term... Thousand Trails zone pass ( with or without trails collection .) Many using it in Florida even during high season. Escapee Coop parks with great rates and ERPU option too in Rainbow system. The Rio Grande Valley has a glut of RV parks and deals abound.Could live there FT for $209 month if money runs out. Give it a shot.... Lots of mostly favorable responses here.

We needed a park in the Salem Lisbon (OH) area enrout from MN to the East Coast. It was so handy to find and make a reservation at the KOA there and the park was so fantastic...decided can’t live without KOA membership for $30 it is worth it to us. I know we could have stayed there without the membership, but we like supporting all networks in our own small way.

I have a page on my website that provides free info. I am a tax preparer and provide this info as a public service. http://www.toddstaxservice.com/identity-theft.html

Not knocking KOA...the membership just doesn't pay for itself in our case. Post is under "living on a budget" which we are.

We've been loyal KOA members for 5 years even though we seldom stay in KOA parks. Checking on the KOA in Okeechobee FL I was shocked at the $85 rate for a back in site. Found a PPA park for $25.50 night within 2 miles of the KOA park. Maybe it's time to stop wasting $30 year on something of such little value. We're getting a lot more bang for the buck with our Thousand Trails zone pass and Passport America membership.