EV Disruption

[RV_]

Again a very large industry and he makes the point, one I agree with, and some I am not as online about. But not only is the article a must read for investors in fossil energy and/or solar/wind/geothermal/hydro and nuclear but the reader comments at the bottom range from the " it's a passing fad" to the "It is the future" comments. Hate EVs or love them, as investors here are some great comments and info on transport, the car industry and fossil fuels. I have said many times that it would take 20 years to see the trend to BEVs as irreversible.

 

Excerpt:

 

"I’ve been thinking about whether electric cars (and I do mean BEVs) can reach a tipping point and suddenly explode in popularity. Can they be a “disruptive technology?” And just to be clear: My definition of a disruptive technology is that its sudden popularity not only supplants a previously established technology, but also puts established companies out of business because they cannot adapt quickly enough.

 

If this is going to happen, electric cars have to be clearly more desirable than gasoline cars. I think this is possible. Right now the main obstacles are either price (for Tesla) or range (for most others). Bring the cost to par with gas cars while still achieving a solid 200 miles range, and then I think many people will choose the electric car — for its greater convenience, better driving experience and lower cost of operation.

 

The best comparison I can think of is the shift from film cameras to digital cameras. The first digital cameras found a niche, even though they weren’t yet a viable, direct replacement for film cameras, and they sold in modest numbers. As technology improved, we came to a tipping point where the masses preferred digital. Digital cameras operate similarly to film cameras, and they perform the same tasks, but they just do it with much lower cost of operation and greater convenience.

 

How it won’t happen… I’ve read a scenario that electric cars will soon start putting gasoline stations out of business. That will make gasoline cars even less convenient to own, and things will spiral from there. I don’t buy this theory, though. It’s true that gas stations already don’t make much profit, but that’s because of the high level of competition. If a few of them go out of business, that will concentrate the remaining sales among the remaining stations. For example: In my small town we have six gas stations (all of which are basically convenience stores rather than service stations as such). If demand for gas falls, some of those stores may stop selling gasoline. Every time that happens, the customers who were still using that store will migrate to the remaining stores and help keep them afloat. We would have to get down to one or two stores before this begins to become a significant inconvenience to gas car owners.

 

Very few people switched to a digital camera because they were having trouble getting film or processing anymore. To the extent that this did happen, it was long after the tidal wave of digital had already washed through.

 

However, the market for film cameras imploded very quickly. Cameras are durable goods, and new cameras always have to compete with used cameras. When people started shifting to digital, they began dumping their old — but still perfectly serviceable — film cameras at the flea market, the resale shop, the pawn shop, the garage sale, eBay, etc. Very soon anybody who did still want a film camera had screaming bargains to choose from in used models, and not a lot of compelling reason to shell out for a new one. For companies making only film cameras, this was a nightmare.

 

The same thing can happen to gasoline cars. However… The analogy isn’t perfect."

 

He goes on to explain why in the full article here: http://cleantechnica.com/2015/11/17/ev-disruption/?utm_source=Cleantechnica+News&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=e8e32469aa-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_term=0_b9b83ee7eb-e8e32469aa-331970081

 

Some good facts and numbers in the comments.