RV_

The cycles have traditionally been five years between troughs and the same between peaks for a ten year cycle I have been buying since the beginning of the trough, through the lower prices, and all through the rise until a couple of years ago for my funds, and now a couple of years ago my one stock which fell from a high of 38 to 33 today since last Thursday. An Arab conglomerate sold their shares high and it was a lrage block whioch further scared the rest into selling. As usual I saifd I should sell now a day before it droppesd with the thought of rebuying shares at a price like today but again I didn't, if I did I would find no price drop, just my luck. Anyway I agree on the volatility, but as to your comment and my observation of years and cycles I may have that timing you mention close John, as I turn 60 later this year. Granted I am already retired and set, but I fully expect maturity and stability long enough to cash in. I already have all the property and reserves I need, and no debt of any kind, not even the house or property.

Amen Ed!

Gotcha and Thanks Jack. Going to me about the company is good, about investing is bad. I am just having fun and feel vindicated. But as you said that could change in a heartbeat. I think I am safe at least until the Model S debuts, and will likely not be lucky enough to get another buy opportunity. It looks like with the new higher target and the buy recommends that it will be volatile up and down a buck or two as folks take short term profits and buy again. It seems to repeat this pattern.

OK I have got to say that the Motley Fool is worse at flip flopping than any politician I have ever studied. First they loved Tesla, then they hated them, repeat that cycle a hundred times and that is what they have done with their articles. I read every one and even wrote comments back about the lack of content and the writers perhaps doing their homework instead of comparing the Tesla and the Volt as in the same class of car. Next they will compare them to a regular car because they both have batteries! So today they have the very first article by any of their writers where the man obviously knows who when and where about Musk, and has actually done his homework. When folks say they were lucky enough to have gotten in at 55 with Apple or even earlier, every time a writer in the investment community says thus and so it makes no sense as they flip flop every which way from day to day. I am glad I wasn't taken in by the look up three numbers and make a call based on their market segment and whether they are buying, selling, or afraid to move. Please don't take any of that as a veiled slap at anybody who has participated in this thread here. It isn't. The longer I participate in the stock market individual stocks, the more ridiculous I realize the community is in information dissemination. Or I should say disinformation. I am glad I have one stock, for my one venture in the stock market, and even gladder that the folks who really do their homework in the investment community see what I saw and see in the young company and its leader. I have said before that the company ethics and product are more important to me than just the numbers as i need to have fun and believe in what I choose to participate in building and selling by my investment in them. I am investing in a company not the commentary of my favorite writer. The people and their track record to me is the defining thing on getting me to invest. I find myself subject to also choosing articles i agree with in conclusions, but for me they also need the substance. That screaming guy with the one minute say on his TV show and online is not my cup of tea. I also notice that people like Warren Buffet and the other really successful investors don't go on TV, but do share their philosophy, which is wasted in an immediate gratification world. So today Motley has flip flopped again in my favor but the article is worth reading because they are drawing the same conclusions I am beginning to draw. It may be longer term for me to stay in than the debut and just after the model S. For those that read every fact about Tesla and Musk I posted you can skip this. But I may make that decision when the Model S debuts to let it ride. Just remember I know nothing about the market, and am the last person to listen to about your own money. But this article is really well done, but as said before, is picked because it agrees with what I want to hear. So here is today's Motley Fool "Editor's Choice" Awarded article: Auto Industry to be Shocked by Tesla? http://beta.fool.com...ogyholnk0000001

Bob we will just have to disagree.

Bob, Excerpt: "In fact, throughout our history, PTSD has been called a number of other different names, including: battle fatigue or gross stress reaction for soldiers who came down with PTSD after World War II combat fatigue or shell shock for soldiers who experienced PTSD symptoms after World War I soldier's heart for soldiers who developed the symptoms of PTSD after the Civil War. Unfortunately, before the medical community recognized PTSD as a viable emotional disorder, most leaders and doctors thought it was simply nothing more than cowardice or personal weakness." http://www.psychiatr...ory-of-ptsd.php Your problem with PTSD is based on what personal experience? Your medical degree is in which specialty?Your service time in what branch? I have 27 years some in the medical Corps most in Combat Arms and no, I do not have any form of PTSD. My disabilities are hearing neck and back damage. I am just a sheepdog.What are you? My theory is that it happens when a sheep has to be put in the role of a sheepdog and thinks all are feeling like he does. Sheep are the bulk of society, and wonderful people who make the civilized part work. There are wolves and sheepdogs and they know who they are, only the sheep are confused. Maybe you have read Col Grossman's treatise on it? http://www.mwkworks....dsheepdogs.html

Which article John? The one about the world ending December 21st, or the one about cherry picking commentary that agrees with a belief? Just kidding! I know what you meant. I really think there is a lot to be said for his premise that there is a PTSD like experience which for some can be as bad as a combat trauma. In personality studies and theories from Piaget and his maturational theories to Hirschberg's motivation and hygiene, the premise most accepted and validated by observation is the personality is pretty much crystallized by age 27 and only a SEVER TRAUMATIC EMOTIONAL EVENT can change a person's basic "bent" if you will. PTSD is that trauma from war and the activities associated with participation in the atrocity of killing for non warrior personalities. I thought that the article was dead on in a correlation between the trauma of the markets that were the investor's friend for so long, turning on them suddenly, and leaving some who thought themselves set for life destroyed or set back quite a bit. It just makes sense. Same as relieving cognitive dissonance or the severe stress experienced when our beliefs and our behaviors are in contradiction. We humans have only two choices: Change the belief or change the behavior. Smokers change the belief that they will get cancer or some other disease. Those who quit smoking changed the behavior. Both relieved the cognitive anxiety/distress/dissonance of their belief and behavior being contradictory. I see the same thing in the irrational sell offs when the least little thing scares one person that their money might be in jeopardy and that one person leads all the others like lemmings to sell. That article I posted earlier explained a lot to me about the market too. When anybody has lost a great deal, which is relative to each, it will leave a lasting lesson that may be withdraw to some, and just change approach to others.

Jack I like that perspective. Mine isn't gloomy, another's experience may be, and neither invalidates the other. I did earn a lot of income after I decided to go back to work in 2005. I did almost 5 years and retired again. My company was expanding and I did not want to take another division and end up working 18 a day six days a week. All during the 2007/8/9 time frame I was buying and discussed that here a few times back then. It was a great sustained buying opportunity. When I left my position and the buying opportunity was over as far as I was concerned, I was left with my operating expenses in the performance index account, and a local biz checking account so my people could cash their paychecks locally, and earning nothing in either account. Now those funds would have earned me quite a bit if I were to sell now. I agree that the primary rule is to never invest more than you can afford to lose, and to buy low and sell high. Another one is that no money is lost, or made, until the stock is sold, ad the money is in the bank or another vehicle with little risk. My SH wanted to sell when it crashed and I was buying more. I finally got through that, and am not ahead or behind because I am still in. Ahead or behind will be tallied on the sale of part or all the shares I own at present. Holding and not selling any and I am again neither ahead nor behind, merely speculating. It ain't a profit or loss until the stock is sold. What confounds folks is when to sell. When to hold. Like the song says, you never count your money when you're sitting at the table, there'll be time enough for counting when the dealings done.

John, Why don't you tell us what you really think? I believe that come December 22 the sun will rise and so will I.

Ed, I did read it, thanks so much for posting it! Great short read and makes perfect sense to me. I was doing a hobby consult for a start up out in Santa Clara and making a little in early 2000 while fulltiming until the tech bubble burst in June. But I wasn't invested and the company just went away and went back to a private website for the owner. I didn't lose a job I needed I was retired and RVing. And I paid off my 5 acres and house back in 2005 and actually was working ans making great money and sunk a lot of it into funds in the 2008 and 2009 and 2010 time frame before the prices started to come back. I banked with USAA and they have my funds and they are doing fine. I still had mid 5 figures in the performance index account and was happy with the liquidity AND 4 % until the interest went down to nothing. That was when I realized that Tesla was about to IPO, something I had very much wanted to see. I called USAA and found that every 10k I had in their previously great account was making only 108, so I was looking and was liquid all through when 2008-now happened. So the article did not apply to me, I did not get financial PTSD. Here's an excerpt from it: "Another habit that Statman sees at play is the confirmation bias. It's often used as a way to help explain the widening political divide in the U.S. between Democrats and Republicans. Say you believe that the federal government's debts will cause the U.S. to go the way of Greece. Instead of looking for information that challenges this view, you stick to news reports that confirm your opinions. "If you have evidence that goes against your beliefs, you dismiss it," he says. Statman says it seems some people are looking to confirm a "doom and gloom" view of the U.S. economy. Point out that the economy grew at a 3 percent rate in the last quarter of 2011 and they'll change the subject. Their view, he says, is: "This country is going down the tubes." Boy have I seen a lot of that going on! No matter how bad folks feel about it the market always swings in short cyclical three to five year peaks and troughs, and longer term Secular bull and Bear markets historically. We are about due for the bear market to turn Bull once more, if it hasn't already.

Hey guys, I already told everyone that I was in only for that one company, that does what they say they will and already have, and that I am in at least until the Model S comes out and I don't feel any problems will arise between now and then that will cause me a loss. Maybe another buy opportunity but I doubt it. The last one rebounded the same day and after hours went almost halfway back to where it was the day before, and recovered completely by the following Tuesday. Both buying opportunities I had, the last one I missed, that's right, I missed because I don't watch it every day. What will likely happen is that I will double my money, bail out, and watch it go to 500 a share in five years like Apple did when I didn't buy a large block in 2005. Or watch it crash. But I said from the start what I knew it would do and it has, and what I would do which I have. I bought in less than two years ago twice and again last August for 22 and 22.5 and could have sold out yesterday for 36 plus. But I am convinced it will double 22.5 before the Model S actually comes out. I may take half off the table then, or not, or sell all. My plan and action only takes me to the debut, and then I am in the dark as much as anyone else. But I have made a lot more than the 108 dollars a year per 10k block of money I had in a performance index account. Tens of thousands more. But I would like to be clear. I have no confidence in the market for me, or my ability to wisely invest in it whether you guys are in or out, gloomy and doomy or all in and investing in anything and coming out rosy. I told y'all what I was doing, and what I intended to do if another buying opportunity came, and it did twice but I only was able to act on last August's crash to buy more, as I didn't even see the last one until it was over. I may never buy another single stock again. But you never know. Another company I have followed may come along and excite me.

Jim! Mayan Calendar??

Smitty! Thanks and congrats to you too! I thought about that but I am sure that it will climb at least until the Model S is out and being delivered. It has been my plan all along to make the decision to sell or not at that point. I expect a lot of the same ups and downs we have seen. But it never went over 36 before so I expect some changes but not enough for me to do the same yet. For me I feel more comfortable waiting for another buy opportunity. It may crash again on any bad news and then pounce again . . .er . .I mean I buy more if that happens before the debut is done. This is my first foray into the wonderful world of the stock market, and may well be my last. Not counting Apple in 2005 which I was going to buy at 55 and sink 30k into, which at that time I could lose and not hurt too much, and then I chickened out of it, See I just don't know other companies like I knew Tesla, and knew Apple and their costs and chip advantages with the Intel switch at the time. So I can't be greedy here and lose by staying too long, and that will likely turn out to be a decision I will regret from a greedy standpoint, but one I intend to make as I was going to be happy with doubling my money in less than two years and that appears to be likely. If it goes beyond my making double before debut I will stay at least until they are out, either way. It is fun though. I doubt that with the cost of fuel this will turn sour on us anyway. I don't really speak investment, but for me a really low price is when I will buy more. I am not sure what you mean by a jump in points?? That is why I am not selling any right now. While I expect and hope for a panicky sell off and another buying opportunity, I doubt I will have one so I don't want to sell now and get back in at a higher price, that loses money too. Is that what you meant, and how is that good? (I am asking you if I a understand correctly) But I do understand the bird in the hand.

I have been on that since the beginning too, and await the final outcomes. I read at least two or three articles a day on them and not the chicken little ones alone, although I do read them to see what all the brouhaha is about. Here is one that pretty much agrees with my position on it being long, and buying more on the volatile lows if any more present themselves. http://seekingalpha.com/article/390151-tesla-6-reasons-why-put-options-look-undervalued-relative-to-the-risks?source=yahoo It may present with one more panic sellout and subsequent buy opportunity before the Model S debut.

I don't know either. If true, I would imagine we would or will see more substantial reporting, with names and locations. I know that RV owners make a stink all over the Internet when they have manufacturer lemon problems. I would expect the same from luxury carowners of any type. Perhaps that is forthcoming?

Whoa! Tesla is sold out until March 2013 with the Model S. For those with the no one will buy them refrain that is not even on the radar screen of Tesla. They debuted their Model X SUV. OMG! Two motors, all wheel driver, falcon wing rear doors, and performance that beats the Porsche Carrera! Yep you read right. Pricing is to be about the same as the model S. Here are two articles with videos that show the Model X in person with interviews and articles: http://www.cnbc.com/id/46332448?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo This next one is a video only but has some better pics of the inside and a different interview with Musk: http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2012/02/09/pf_w_tesla_model_x.cnnmoney/ And here is the Tesla website for the Model X with more technical info and pics: http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_campaign=

I knew when Toyota bought into Tesla in 2010 and then Tesla delkivered the RV4 SUV prototype as promised to Akio Toyoda, the new top dog in Toyota. I juast read another article about him and found this bit: "Akio shrank the board of directors by half and took out layers of management. Funo revealed a more significant development: Akio has begun meeting informally with his five top advisers every Tuesday morning to review the company's operations. They work so closely together that Funo called it "pit work" management. No agendas or written reports are allowed, and decisions are made on the spot. "Basically, the six people have a very strong personal bond. So it's not a very emotional or heated debate as we have a very good understanding among each other." They can move quickly. After Akio visited Tesla Motors (TSLA) in California in 2010, the Tuesday morning meeting signed off on a $50 million investment in the electric-car maker. Subsequently Toyota agreed to buy $60 million worth of Tesla batteries to power its all-electric RAV 4 crossover." OK, I am slow but I get there. They already had most of the engineering done for an SUV in December 2010. (slaps forehead DOH!) That article about Toyota is here: http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/toyota-akio-toyoda-comeback/?source=yahoo_quote

Bob, Thanks. Sorry I did not see your post as I was composing when it posted and was checking mine and left last time. Just saw it. I will do that when I think it is advantageous. As you know however, the trick is timing, and that is just a guess, or a conservative withdrawal and "never look back and wish." To me that is the greed that breaks bank accounts, not banks. They get a get out of jail free card, and keep ill gotten gains anyway. Or pay a relatively smaller fine than the profits to the SEC, and press on keeping their profits from those they bankrupted. Anybody that took my advice and bought Tesla a few weeks ago at 22.25 (when it hit the low I missed, until it was too late, and it was up to 25 in after hours trading before I even realized it had tanked,) could sell today if they choose and make almost exactly ten dollars per share as it just went to 32.27. Tonight Investors are getting a live preview of the Tesla Model X online at 8 PM PT. 10 my central time. I didn't even know they were working on a Model X, or any other Model other than the Model S coming out this year. I just got the email announcing tonight's live webcast which is open to the public if they stumble upon it on the website here: http://www.teslamoto...et&utm_campaign= I had heard of a future SUV but not this soon! http://news.investors.com/Article/600566/201202081933/tesla-motors-partners-with-toyota-daimler.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo Tomorrow it may go through the roof. That is not a prediction like my earlier one that it will tank once, if at all, more, and it did, before the model S comes out. I don't think it will tank again before the Model S at this time. For me it is now hold.

Good observation John. My good friend who also had to come off the road because of health and never won investing in his life but does penny stocks advised me to buy more Tesla anyway and that violated my rule of buying low and selling high. His reasoning is that if you buy at 30 and it goes to 40 then you still made money. But I am not a Pollyanna thinking all will turn out 100% of the time. I fully follow that and can explain it this way. It is like an airplane pilot when thinking about a malfunction. He would rather fight wind-shear at 30,000 feet than on take off and landing. Why? Because then he has the time to make corrections that he would not have time to try if he did not have the altitude. It takes me less than a week to forget to check my stock, and so I missed a buy opportunity. But note that it dropped, as before, to definite level and then stopped. The bottom has been 22-23. Sure it may crash and go out of business, but I doubt that before the delivery of the Model S. So I buy at a point where I think I can stand to get out in a permanent crash with at least my original principal or close. If I lose it all I am not jumping out of any windows. That would just add insult to injury. We live in a one story dwelling! Please don't point out a million disaster scenarios, I have considered them and also know that it could be wiped out in an hour, and no one see it coming. So could GE as we just saw with Kodak. But I doubt it. Fear and hubris, they never caused problems at any time in our history have they?

Thanks Ron, No harm, no foul. You did have me completely confused there. I am really just a beginner and able to kill two birds with one stone. I could finally participate in Tesla when they IPO'd. Something Space X still hasn't done despite their success and contracts for launches. And yes I am aware of the funds being way too conservative for me. But I am married and I only recently have proven to my SH that you don't profit or lose until you sell. Two weeks ago when Tesla tanked and I missed what may have been the last buy opportunity for more at cut rates, she was frantic and would have sold at a break even had I not been around. I let her switch the funds on the advice of the financial advisors there in 2008 when we were buying as much as we could and that was a lot by our standards. For the past three years they were a good pick for the volatile period we are exiting now. So yes it is time to move them back into more aggressive areas. Before we had it in four funds with a heckuva diversification. I control the cash with her having equal say. She controls the assets in the nest eggs with me having equal say, and she handles all the accounting. It works for us. I have a simple way to see my assets invested or banked which used to be almost the same, just more secure. I look at $10k and figure the actual money gained. Most don't but since I think in round figures, that works for me. Several years back I realized that my performance index accounts had fallen to below a percent, but once I figured out what I was making on each $10K, at one point recently $108.00 in interest per year for every $10k I had in the account! I was outraged. If I wanted to borrow money it was at much more and if I used my own money to guarantee the loan it was still ten times what they paid me to use my money for loans to others. Thus my foray into the wonderful world of individual stocks, which if i sold today outperformed my old way by leaps and bounds. I can lose it all I know. And i don't like any of the other options I have been shown thus far. My insanity for one day in believing my own press (Overconfident in the emotional article) demonstrated to me that I am not immune to hubris. It might make billions for anybody that gets into it. But one of them won't be me. And once I am through with Tesla and Space X I think I will retire my investing in individual stocks once the performance index accounts start paying again. See, I am boring and can't be taught to talk the talk.

Amen Jack

Everybody else, I wanted to do this one company. Period. You all can gamble and/or invest all you want on paper only scenarios, or for real, online or off, and call it whatever you choose. If you win I will be genuinely happy for you. I am paid up, paid off, and set for life whether I make a gazillion bucks from this investment or not, which is not my substantial money. I see no comments on the articles about the emotional reactions of those who call themselves investors, written by experts, nor the Buffet Quotes, nor the crazy ignorant reviews by the investment experts who would advise and could not tell an EV from a hybrid. (BTW I did the review of his son's album "Imaginary Kingdom" for Boomers International online in 2009: http://boomersint.or...ffettReview.htm , I never met him just corresponded a few times via email.) All I can think is this: http://home.earthlin...ylike/id66.html

Jack, I call it making money. Seriously Jack thanks for making it clear. My substantial money is in those diversified funds above. I am happy for anybody else here who is making money today, whatever they call it.