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1331951158[/url]' post='530037']

I did not mean to imply that there were not problems. Just that they were man enough to handle it, even if it took years. And it often did. Some even went round the bend. But society did not rationalize it back then. You were supposed to gut it up and move on. Almost all did. As did your Father and mine.

 

But how much better would it have been for them to get some help so they didn't have to go it alone!

Barb & Dave O'Keeffe
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Derek,

I'm now starting to think about moving some funds into less volatile funds because there will be a correction, we just don't know when. Trying to hit the exact time isn't something I'm good at. laugh.gif

Barb

Barb & Dave O'Keeffe
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I’d like to offer a different viewpoint.

 

I think people, in general, approach stock investing from the wrong angle. Too much emphasis is placed on picking the proper time to enter or exit the market as a whole. Once you make that decision you then must decide on which individual stocks to invest in. After that is done you then must decide entry and exit points for those individual stocks. A mistake made in any one of those areas and you will lose money because you have constructed a position that will only make money if the stock price goes up.

 

In my opinion it is more important to learn how to make money with what is in front of you today in the market. Invest with the flow of the market rather than trying to pick a point that you think that flow will change. The proper use of options allows you to do just that. Learn to incorporate the use of options in your stock portfolio and you will be able to generate returns when the stock goes up, stay’s the same, or even goes down somewhat. You can even use options to make money when stocks are tanking but that’s another avenue of investing. This allows you to stay in the market all the time. History tells us that the market as a whole will trend up over time. That’s not an opinion, it’s a historical fact. Pick profitable, established, income generating stocks for your portfolio that have survived market and industry downturns such as ADP, EMR, MSFT, MCD, WM ect. Most people fear options and with good reason. They don’t understand how to use them and when they do use them they use them for speculation and lose money more often than not. The proper use of stock options will make a stock portfolio far safer and enhance returns and allow you to stay in the market. Invest with the probabilities not against them.

 

Here is an actual example of what I’m talking about using Ingersoll Rand (IR). In July of 2008 I purchased IR at a cost of 34.21 per share. This was shortly before the big crash started. During the crash this stock traded below 13.00 per share. By selling put options for income and eventually being assigned on those options I acquired more shares at these lower prices on three occasions. In the end the position was closed in Sep of 2009 when the price of the stock had come back up to 32.08. Wait a minute you say. . . that’s still a loss of over 2.00 per share. No it isn’t. Because of the income I received from writing Call and Put Options and dividend income my cost basis was much lower than 32.08. My annualized return on this position was 19.3%.

 

Most people would have bailed out on that stock and taken a huge loss. But I understood that the probability was that the market would survive and go back up. Ingersoll Rand was still making money and it was also a probability that it would survive and recover as it has in the past. Invest with the probabilities; don’t try to time the market.

 

The point I’m trying to make here is timing the market is tough. Timing individual stocks is even tougher. Learn to make money in the market just as it is and you won’t have to time it.

 

Just my two cents :)

Jim
SKP: 99693
If you think you can, or you think you can't. . . you are probably right (Henry Ford)
2014 Dodge 4WD Dually
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I’d like to offer a different viewpoint.

.........

The point I’m trying to make here is timing the market is tough. Timing individual stocks is even tougher. Learn to make money in the market just as it is and you won’t have to time it.

 

Just my two cents :)

 

IMO your post offers very sage advice Jim - and worth a lot more than two cents!

---Ron

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Had an old friend tell me that the two best investments are guns and old cars. Too bad I never followed has advice. I still like the stock market!

 

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I’d like to offer a different viewpoint.

(clipped)

Learn to make money in the market just as it is and you won’t have to time it.

 

Just my two cents :)

 

I wish I understood everything you wrote. I have no idea when to buy, or sell.

 

I went out on a limb and bought 100 shares of Apple stock back in 1998. It was 5% of my portfolio. Boy did I take a lot of criticism. The stock did nothing for quite awhile. Then it split twice so I ended up with 400 shares. That made my cost per share about $7.50/share. At one point I got very concerned and sold 100 shares to make sure I didn’t lose my initial investment. Apple is doing pretty good now days. I which I hadn’t sold that 100 shares, but I’m OK with it.

 

Most of the rest of my investments are in Dividend stocks. Oh, I did buy Panera Bread a year ago. I just really like the company. Its up 150%. So once in a while I get lucky.

 

Did I tell you I bought Cougar Oil @ $4.50 (Canadian). It’s on sale. I’ll make you a really good deal if you want a few hundred shares. he,he.

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I wish I understood everything you wrote. I have no idea when to buy, or sell.

 

I went out on a limb and bought 100 shares of Apple stock back in 1998. It was 5% of my portfolio. Boy did I take a lot of criticism. The stock did nothing for quite awhile. Then it split twice so I ended up with 400 shares. That made my cost per share about $7.50/share. At one point I got very concerned and sold 100 shares to make sure I didn’t lose my initial investment. Apple is doing pretty good now days. I which I hadn’t sold that 100 shares, but I’m OK with it.

 

Most of the rest of my investments are in Dividend stocks. Oh, I did buy Panera Bread a year ago. I just really like the company. Its up 150%. So once in a while I get lucky.

 

Did I tell you I bought Cougar Oil @ $4.50 (Canadian). It’s on sale. I’ll make you a really good deal if you want a few hundred shares. he,he.

 

Mike and Lori

 

Apple is an amazing company. If you held on to those remaining 300 shares you have done well. If I remember correctly, about the time you bought your shares everyone thought the company was on the brink of going under. I think Apple will be studied in economics classes for many years to come.

 

I love Panera Bread as a store. The company doesn't fit my investment criteria so I can't touch it but I do enjoy going there for lunch.

Jim
SKP: 99693
If you think you can, or you think you can't. . . you are probably right (Henry Ford)
2014 Dodge 4WD Dually
1998 Carriage LS-341

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Guest cindona

Cindy!! Glad to see you back here....see what you started! And I miss your blog....

 

 

Hey Jack! I check in here periodically and catch up. :). I have picked up the blogging again.

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Anyone of us non-experts on this forum can write a negative or positive post on why we think the stock market will do 'thus-n-so.' We can also provide links to writers who do have some degree of expertise who write negative or positive articles on the stock market.

 

Since I think the financial crisis which began in 2007 is not over, I tend (always?) to come up with the negative articles (some might say 'the-world-is-ending articles.) Well, here is another one by economist, Gary North. You have to get through the first part which is a bit of history of the crisis in 2007 and 2008. Then he applies this analysis/history (modern day bank run) to what he expects will be another modern day bank run. But this time it will be a run on the US Treasury. Could he be wrong? Of course.

 

If you don't like to read scary, speculative stuff then don't read this one.

 

Cheers John

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

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Anyone of us non-experts on this forum can write a negative or positive post on why we think the stock market will do 'thus-n-so.' We can also provide links to writers who do have some degree of expertise who write negative or positive articles on the stock market.

 

John, well thanks for letting us know we can provide links to entertainment.

 

Gary North was one of those well known Y2K alarmists who knew the world was ending. I love reading articles about this Chicken Little. Here is a humorous one that may help provide alternate views on his positions.

 

Gary North

 

Some use the market and other investing positions to make money. Jim Rack said it perfectly the other day. If you can't figure out how to make money as the market fluctuates and responds to world events, then just sit on the sidelines and whine. I hope readers of the forum realize that the market does have risks but also great rewards are possible.

Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

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Anyone of us non-experts on this forum can write a negative or positive post on why we think the stock market will do 'thus-n-so.' We can also provide links to writers who do have some degree of expertise who write negative or positive articles on the stock market.

 

John, well thanks for letting us know we can provide links to entertainment.

 

Gary North was one of those well known Y2K alarmists who knew the world was ending. I love reading articles about this Chicken Little. Here is a humorous one that may help provide alternate views on his positions.

 

Gary North

 

Some use the market and other investing positions to make money. Jim Rack said it perfectly the other day. If you can't figure out how to make money as the market fluctuates and responds to world events, then just sit on the sidelines and whine. I hope readers of the forum realize that the market does have risks but also great rewards are possible.

 

Thanks for the page on Gary North, I really mean that. I have said in the past that I do not share much philosophically with GN, but I am willing to read his articles because he brings an Austrian-economic perspective to the discussion as does Peter Schiff. I wish the page on GN were more up to date (1998) in order to get some critical insight on GN's more current views on the financial crisis. If GN is out-to-lunch I would like to know.

 

On the negative side, I don't know why people sitting on the sidelines are thought to be whining. What is the reason for the ridicule? Isn't it enough to point out that "sideliners" are missing out on the current bull run in stocks (even if some "sideliners" did not miss the bull run in bonds!) and therefore their investing opinions are suspect? Just asking? :)

 

Cheers John

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

The best things in life aren't things.

Avatar: Padre Island National Seashore, TX

2008 17' Taylor Coach, Lightweight Trailer, 2050lb Dryweight (axles and tongue)

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Guest cindona

For you, John. Gary North, March 22, 2012. It's pretty cute, and so true!

 

http://lewrockwell.com/north/north1110.html

 

 

 

**Waving my hands**. I have a very comfortable chair on the sidelines, and whining has never been my style, so i will continue to sit back and enjoy the show.

 

Kudos to any and all that are making money in the market today. Carry on!

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MBnKen

 

I would like to clarify something. I don't think it was your intention but some could read your post and come away with the impression that I said "If you can't figure out how to make money as the market fluctuates and responds to world events, then just sit on the sidelines and whine." I never said that nor do I feel that way.

 

In my original post I was simply showing a way of investing that has worked well for me for quite some time. I do not agree with those who try to time the market but would never ridicule them. It takes all kinds of investors to make the economic world go-round. :D

Edited by Jim Rack

Jim
SKP: 99693
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Hi Jim,

Yes, I never meant to imply that from your posting. I liked your comment that money can be made in many conditions and that is all I was trying to glean from your post.

 

I have nothing against those who are not in the market. And no issues is someone is or is not achieving great results. I just don't like a constant barrage of negative posts; "the sky is falling", and all the reasons why someone should not have been invested during the thread period from August to today. There was so much money to be made.

Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

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OK I have got to say that the Motley Fool is worse at flip flopping than any politician I have ever studied. First they loved Tesla, then they hated them, repeat that cycle a hundred times and that is what they have done with their articles. I read every one and even wrote comments back about the lack of content and the writers perhaps doing their homework instead of comparing the Tesla and the Volt as in the same class of car. Next they will compare them to a regular car because they both have batteries!:o:P

 

So today they have the very first article by any of their writers where the man obviously knows who when and where about Musk, and has actually done his homework. When folks say they were lucky enough to have gotten in at 55 with Apple or even earlier, every time a writer in the investment community says thus and so it makes no sense as they flip flop every which way from day to day. I am glad I wasn't taken in by the look up three numbers and make a call based on their market segment and whether they are buying, selling, or afraid to move.

 

Please don't take any of that as a veiled slap at anybody who has participated in this thread here. It isn't. The longer I participate in the stock market individual stocks, the more ridiculous I realize the community is in information dissemination. Or I should say disinformation.

 

I am glad I have one stock, for my one venture in the stock market, and even gladder that the folks who really do their homework in the investment community see what I saw and see in the young company and its leader. I have said before that the company ethics and product are more important to me than just the numbers as i need to have fun and believe in what I choose to participate in building and selling by my investment in them. I am investing in a company not the commentary of my favorite writer. The people and their track record to me is the defining thing on getting me to invest.

 

I find myself subject to also choosing articles i agree with in conclusions, but for me they also need the substance. That screaming guy with the one minute say on his TV show and online is not my cup of tea. I also notice that people like Warren Buffet and the other really successful investors don't go on TV, but do share their philosophy, which is wasted in an immediate gratification world. So today Motley has flip flopped again in my favor but the article is worth reading because they are drawing the same conclusions I am beginning to draw. It may be longer term for me to stay in than the debut and just after the model S.

 

For those that read every fact about Tesla and Musk I posted you can skip this. But I may make that decision when the Model S debuts to let it ride. Just remember I know nothing about the market, and am the last person to listen to about your own money. But this article is really well done, but as said before, is picked because it agrees with what I want to hear. So here is today's Motley Fool "Editor's Choice" Awarded article:

 

Auto Industry to be Shocked by Tesla?

http://beta.fool.com...ogyholnk0000001

Edited by RV

RV/Derek
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When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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Derek, you are doing what many successful individual stock investors do. You study the company, its philosophy and who is running it. Then you evaluate the industry and the opportunity. And you invest if you think the company will fit the opportunity well and has the ability to execute. I did that for a time and was paid for it....(I led a merger and acquisition team). It is not easy, and even if you do everything right there are so many factors involved that you have no control over that you can fail miserably. Ask me how I know ;)

 

So,if I was interested in Tesla then you would be one of the people I would talk to about it.

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Gotcha and Thanks Jack. Going to me about the company is good, about investing is bad. I am just having fun and feel vindicated. But as you said that could change in a heartbeat. I think I am safe at least until the Model S debuts, and will likely not be lucky enough to get another buy opportunity. It looks like with the new higher target and the buy recommends that it will be volatile up and down a buck or two as folks take short term profits and buy again. It seems to repeat this pattern.

RV/Derek
http://www.rvroadie.com Email on the bottom of my website page.
Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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Just to add a little 'alcohol' to the punch bowl. B)

 

Cheers John

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

The best things in life aren't things.

Avatar: Padre Island National Seashore, TX

2008 17' Taylor Coach, Lightweight Trailer, 2050lb Dryweight (axles and tongue)

2007 Chevy 1/2 ton, Reg Cab, 8' Bed, 4.8L, 2WD, 3.23 Lock. Diff., Highway: 25 MPG Solo, 15-16 MPG Towing

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I'm still in and made decent money in 2011. I have my investments totally in mutual funds (except for some cash) divided up unequally between index, bond and money market. I see a paid non commission money manager annually and make adjustments in the allocation. So far so good. We go see our adviser again in a couple of weeks. We'll see what she says for this year.

Garry
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Guest cindona

The market goes up and everyone's doing the happy dance. Market goes down and.....SOOO quiet.

 

Huffington Post is reporting today: Stocks on Tuesday suffered their worst selloff of the year and their fifth straight day of losses, the worst such streak since last August.

 

ABC says:

NEW YORK -- The stock market extended its longest and deepest slump of the year Tuesday, caught between a recurring nightmare of European debt and the beginning of uncertain corporate earnings reports at home.

 

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 213.66 points, its biggest decline of the year and third triple-digit loss in four days. It closed at 12,715.93, its lowest since Feb. 2.

 

A five-day losing streak has shaved about 550 points off the Dow, more than half what it gained from January through March.

 

However, I love Karl Denninger, and here is his post today:

 

http://www.market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=204544

 

Perhaps, it's a good time to buy??

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Perhaps, it's a good time to buy??

Yeah right. Ha. :rolleyes:

 

The problem with cheering this market (or counting returns) - either up or down - is that this market is manic, abnormal, subject to sudden violent mood swings. Why? Many reasons of course. Not the least of which is that the US and world economies have never gone through what we are going through. (The Great Depression was not that similar to today.)

 

The 'super debt cycle' (private and public) that began building perhaps 3 decades ago is a whole new game. It is like a 'game' with two periods: the first period was great fun with everyone getting rich with stocks and ever rising home values. So we consumed like crazy and borrowed like crazy - heck, we were rich and getting richer. Whoops, the first period ended and now the second period is upon us. It is debt pay back time and we are not nearly as rich as we thought, we are not rich at all (well, 1% of us are)! We have many years of debt to pay off and while we try to do that we have less money to spend on stuff and thus fewer jobs are needed to produce less stuff. Depression? Recession?

 

Not if the FED can help it. What can the FED do? Not much except continue what it was doing...expand credit, lower interest rates, print money. Ouch. So the FED and most world wide Central Banks have been flooding financial markets with money (QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, QE3?) to try to delay and soften the pain of foreclosures, bankruptcies, reduced consumption and thus high unemployment. Of course easy money is mostly what caused the super debt cycle 'game' in the first place. Easy FED money can keep financial markets puffed up for some unknown period of time, just like in the past, but not forever - just like in the past.

 

In the first period of the 'game' inflated assets (stocks, houses, etc.) caused us to feel rich and buy lots of stuff and thus generate lots of jobs making stuff. But we are slowly learning that the first period is over. The FED knows it is over, but it is trying desperately to restart the first period, without having to go through the second period of extended debt repayment, reduced consumption, and high unemployment. I don't think they will be successful. I do, however, think they can temporarily soften the second period for a limited period of time. Unfortunately, that will likely extend the second period and may, in the end, simply make it much worse. Just saying. :unsure:

 

Cheers John

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

The best things in life aren't things.

Avatar: Padre Island National Seashore, TX

2008 17' Taylor Coach, Lightweight Trailer, 2050lb Dryweight (axles and tongue)

2007 Chevy 1/2 ton, Reg Cab, 8' Bed, 4.8L, 2WD, 3.23 Lock. Diff., Highway: 25 MPG Solo, 15-16 MPG Towing

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Best for almost all involved if equity markets go up more than they go down.

 

Not at all. If I were say 50 and younger and in my earning/saving/investing years and looking to retire at say 67, I would love to see financial markets stay low until I was maybe early to mid 60's and then they can go higher. During my retirement years while I am spending my retirement funds is when I want markets going higher. The ultimate 'buy low, sell high' scenario. If only!

 

Cheers john

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

The best things in life aren't things.

Avatar: Padre Island National Seashore, TX

2008 17' Taylor Coach, Lightweight Trailer, 2050lb Dryweight (axles and tongue)

2007 Chevy 1/2 ton, Reg Cab, 8' Bed, 4.8L, 2WD, 3.23 Lock. Diff., Highway: 25 MPG Solo, 15-16 MPG Towing

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