Are You Still In?

[Ron]

 

[/i][/b]You see USAA is open only to military and retired military and their children.

 

True that USAA membership is only open to military as stated but their USAA mutual funds are open to anyone.

 

Sorry my post confused you. Actually I should not have replied to your post because I have to admit I did not read the entire post nor all of the related recent posts. Some of them are so long that I don't find the time so I skim them for something that might interest me. The impression I had formed based on this skimming over the past few days was that you were very excited about the upcoming FB IPO and want to make sure you didn't let this one get away from you.

 

That is what prompted my comment about FB - I hadn't read about the 180 you took regarding FB.

 

Then I read part of one of your posts expounding on buying low and selling high which led to someone else asking you if you planned to now sell your investments since they were "high". You replied something to the effect that you "hoped they would keep going higher". My interpretation of your statements sounded like you were contradicting yourself and this prompted my comment about hope not being a strategy.

 

But, I repeat, I should never have commented on your post without first reading the entire post and all of the other related posts behind it. My mistake. Please accept my apology.

 

It is my opinion that the USAA funds are among the better ones with generally low fees and above average performance. I personally don't invest much of my portfolio in mutual funds except for one international fund (HAINX).

 

In another post below I interpret one of your statements to say that your investments are highly diversified using two mutual funds (USAIX and URTNX). If that's the case it would not meet my definition of diversification. USAIX is a bond fund holding mostly AA Corp. bonds with an average 5 yr. maturity. URTNX is a fund that holds other USAA funds and its largest holding is the institutional version of USAIX! In fact about 20% of URTNX is just more USAIX. Over 57% of URTNX is invested in various USAA bond funds. So basically you have a diversified bond portfolio with a smattering of common stocks. I'm sure I'm not telling you anything you didn't already know - it's just that it doesn't meet the commonly accepted definition of diversification.

 

Cheers,

Ron

[mcbockalds]

sounds sooooo simple, doesn't it!

 

but think about it: if it were so simple, everyone would be in the Warren Buffet class.

 

very few are so there must be something not so simple there.

 

 

Of course you are perfectly right! I use the phrase "buy low sell high" mostly as a joke. It actually gives you NO information about when to buy or sell stocks, but only about what you should have done after the fact. A phrase that is only a tiny bit better is "buy as prices are falling and sell as they are rising." I like this because it is counter to our usual fear/greed emotions. We (I) tend to feel good (greed) and think we should buy when prices are rising and feel bad (fear) when they are falling and think we should sell. I like this quote from John Hussman,

 

"One of the great challenges of investing is the distinction between hindsight and foresight. Hindsight treats each major advance, each market crash, each recession and each expansion as if their turning points were obvious, and extrapolates prevailing trends as if their continuation is equally obvious. Foresight is much messier, because it deals with unknowns and unobservables. It recognizes that major financial and economic events are often hidden from view when they are actually already in motion. Foresight requires the willingness to rely on data that tends to precede important outcomes (recessions, market crashes, durable long-term returns), even when those outcomes can't be observed in recent economic and market behavior that we can see and touch. Most importantly, hindsight creates the illusion that uncertainty is never very great, and risk management is never very challenging. Foresight demands a much greater appreciation for randomness, noise, uncertainty, risk management, and stress-testing."

 

Cheers John

[RV_]

Thanks Ron,

No harm, no foul. You did have me completely confused there. I am really just a beginner and able to kill two birds with one stone. I could finally participate in Tesla when they IPO'd. Something Space X still hasn't done despite their success and contracts for launches.

 

And yes I am aware of the funds being way too conservative for me. But I am married and I only recently have proven to my SH that you don't profit or lose until you sell. Two weeks ago when Tesla tanked and I missed what may have been the last buy opportunity for more at cut rates, she was frantic and would have sold at a break even had I not been around. I let her switch the funds on the advice of the financial advisors there in 2008 when we were buying as much as we could and that was a lot by our standards. For the past three years they were a good pick for the volatile period we are exiting now. So yes it is time to move them back into more aggressive areas. Before we had it in four funds with a heckuva diversification. I control the cash with her having equal say. She controls the assets in the nest eggs with me having equal say, and she handles all the accounting. It works for us.

 

I have a simple way to see my assets invested or banked which used to be almost the same, just more secure. I look at $10k and figure the actual money gained. Most don't but since I think in round figures, that works for me. Several years back I realized that my performance index accounts had fallen to below a percent, but once I figured out what I was making on each $10K, at one point recently $108.00 in interest per year for every $10k I had in the account! I was outraged. If I wanted to borrow money it was at much more and if I used my own money to guarantee the loan it was still ten times what they paid me to use my money for loans to others.

 

Thus my foray into the wonderful world of individual stocks, which if i sold today outperformed my old way by leaps and bounds. I can lose it all I know. And i don't like any of the other options I have been shown thus far. My insanity for one day in believing my own press (Overconfident in the emotional article) demonstrated to me that I am not immune to hubris. It might make billions for anybody that gets into it. But one of them won't be me. And once I am through with Tesla and Space X I think I will retire my investing in individual stocks once the performance index accounts start paying again. See, I am boring and can't be taught to talk the talk.

[notop]

RV: I would suggest another strategy for handling high volatility equities. If you get in timely and it doubles, sell 1/2 and hold the second half until you change your mind about its prospects.

[RV_]

Good observation John.

My good friend who also had to come off the road because of health and never won investing in his life but does penny stocks advised me to buy more Tesla anyway and that violated my rule of buying low and selling high. His reasoning is that if you buy at 30 and it goes to 40 then you still made money. But I am not a Pollyanna thinking all will turn out 100% of the time. I fully follow that and can explain it this way. It is like an airplane pilot when thinking about a malfunction. He would rather fight wind-shear at 30,000 feet than on take off and landing. Why? Because then he has the time to make corrections that he would not have time to try if he did not have the altitude. It takes me less than a week to forget to check my stock, and so I missed a buy opportunity. But note that it dropped, as before, to definite level and then stopped. The bottom has been 22-23. Sure it may crash and go out of business, but I doubt that before the delivery of the Model S. So I buy at a point where I think I can stand to get out in a permanent crash with at least my original principal or close. If I lose it all I am not jumping out of any windows. That would just add insult to injury. We live in a one story dwelling!

Please don't point out a million disaster scenarios, I have considered them and also know that it could be wiped out in an hour, and no one see it coming. So could GE as we just saw with Kodak. But I doubt it. Fear and hubris, they never caused problems at any time in our history have they?

Edited February 6, 2012 by RV

[RV_]

Bob,

Thanks. Sorry I did not see your post as I was composing when it posted and was checking mine and left last time. Just saw it. I will do that when I think it is advantageous. As you know however, the trick is timing, and that is just a guess, or a conservative withdrawal and "never look back and wish." To me that is the greed that breaks bank accounts, not banks. They get a get out of jail free card, and keep ill gotten gains anyway. Or pay a relatively smaller fine than the profits to the SEC, and press on keeping their profits from those they bankrupted.

 

Anybody that took my advice and bought Tesla a few weeks ago at 22.25 (when it hit the low I missed, until it was too late, and it was up to 25 in after hours trading before I even realized it had tanked,) could sell today if they choose and make almost exactly ten dollars per share as it just went to 32.27.

 

Tonight Investors are getting a live preview of the Tesla Model X online at 8 PM PT. 10 my central time. I didn't even know they were working on a Model X, or any other Model other than the Model S coming out this year. I just got the email announcing tonight's live webcast which is open to the public if they stumble upon it on the website here: http://www.teslamoto...et&utm_campaign=

I had heard of a future SUV but not this soon! http://news.investors.com/Article/600566/201202081933/tesla-motors-partners-with-toyota-daimler.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo

Tomorrow it may go through the roof. That is not a prediction like my earlier one that it will tank once, if at all, more, and it did, before the model S comes out. I don't think it will tank again before the Model S at this time. For me it is now hold.

Edited February 9, 2012 by RV

[RV_]

I knew when Toyota bought into Tesla in 2010 and then Tesla delkivered the RV4 SUV prototype as promised to Akio Toyoda, the new top dog in Toyota. I juast read another article about him and found this bit:

"Akio shrank the board of directors by half and took out layers of management. Funo revealed a more significant development: Akio has begun meeting informally with his five top advisers every Tuesday morning to review the company's operations. They work so closely together that Funo called it "pit work" management. No agendas or written reports are allowed, and decisions are made on the spot. "Basically, the six people have a very strong personal bond. So it's not a very emotional or heated debate as we have a very good understanding among each other." They can move quickly. After Akio visited Tesla Motors (TSLA) in California in 2010, the Tuesday morning meeting signed off on a $50 million investment in the electric-car maker. Subsequently Toyota agreed to buy $60 million worth of Tesla batteries to power its all-electric RAV 4 crossover."

 

OK, I am slow but I get there. They already had most of the engineering done for an SUV in December 2010. (slaps forehead DOH!)

 

That article about Toyota is here: http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/toyota-akio-toyoda-comeback/?source=yahoo_quote

[RV_]

Whoa!

 

Tesla is sold out until March 2013 with the Model S. For those with the no one will buy them refrain that is not even on the radar screen of Tesla. They debuted their Model X SUV. OMG! Two motors, all wheel driver, falcon wing rear doors, and performance that beats the Porsche Carrera! Yep you read right. Pricing is to be about the same as the model S. Here are two articles with videos that show the Model X in person with interviews and articles:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46332448?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

 

This next one is a video only but has some better pics of the inside and a different interview with Musk:

http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2012/02/09/pf_w_tesla_model_x.cnnmoney/

 

And here is the Tesla website for the Model X with more technical info and pics: http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=ExactTarget&utm_campaign=

[notop]

Have no idea as to the veracity of this:

Tesla Motors’ Devastating Design Problem http://jalopnik.com/5887265/tesla-motors-devastating-design-problem

 

[RV_]

I don't know either. If true, I would imagine we would or will see more substantial reporting, with names and locations. I know that RV owners make a stink all over the Internet when they have manufacturer lemon problems. I would expect the same from luxury carowners of any type. Perhaps that is forthcoming?

[Guest cindona]

Saw this today on a financial forum I frequent and thought you might find it interesting, RV. The reader's comments follow the post.

Tesla's stock doesn't appear to be suffering, but I was wondering; if true, might this have something to do with the departure of the executives a few weeks ago? I find myself following TESLA in the market, after reading all of the information you have posted. I know, I'm strange.

 

 

http://www.market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=202452

[RV_]

I have been on that since the beginning too, and await the final outcomes. I read at least two or three articles a day on them and not the chicken little ones alone, although I do read them to see what all the brouhaha is about. Here is one that pretty much agrees with my position on it being long, and buying more on the volatile lows if any more present themselves.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/390151-tesla-6-reasons-why-put-options-look-undervalued-relative-to-the-risks?source=yahoo

It may present with one more panic sellout and subsequent buy opportunity before the Model S debut.

[j2catfish]

X2 Single stock bought at average $57.00 and sold this week for $115.25. Makes me feel like I know what I'm doing, but probably very lucky.

Wish I had initially invested lots more but being basically a coward, I now will watch the second half for a while longer.

Catfish

 

 

 

 

 

RV: I would suggest another strategy for handling high volatility equities. If you get in timely and it doubles, sell 1/2 and hold the second half until you change your mind about its prospects.

[bryanl]

re: "Makes me feel like I know what I'm doing, but probably very lucky."

 

the Casinos depend upon this ... just enough jackpots to keep people feeling lucky (reinforced by a lot of noise with each one, too!)

 

It is the appeal of the VC funds as well - just a few make it big, enough to make it attractive and keep folks investing. Those angel investors who make a go of it deal with the fact that most investments are sunk and the learn to put a great deal of effort into what it takes to make an entrepreneurial effort succeed so they can 'count cards' as it were to come out ahead in the long run.

 

As illustrated here, it is easy to get hornswoggled by tales of riches and success. Take care you don't get suckered and fully understand that risks and rewards are related.

[mcbockalds]

Even a degree in economics does not guarantee an understanding of what is going on in Europe and how it will affect the U.S. But for your entertaining pleasure here is a fun explanation of the ongoing Eurozone crisis ... and some thought this was going to be solved in a year or two ... that is pretty funny too.

 

Cheers John

[Smitty77_7]

Hey Derek - Mr Tesla:)! Nice run up over $36 today. I took half of mine off of the table, with a Short 37% gain. I've also reposition my Market Stop point. This is not a reflection on Tesla in general, I have a rule that I've followed for several years, that no matter what (well, almost no matter what) - whenever I get above a 35% gain, I take some off and pocket my gains as a bird in the hand. I do feel Tesla has lots of opportunities ahead, as well as many short term risks - thus the reason I changed my exit point for the balance of my holdings. Nothing wrong with jumping out while the jumping is good, and then ratcheting back in if a good jump in point presents itself. For any stock, not just Tesla...

 

So, per the normal Golden Rules of Smitty Trading - you should see one heck of nice bump soon:)!

 

Best, too all, not just Derek,

Smitty

[RV_]

Smitty! Thanks and congrats to you too! I thought about that but I am sure that it will climb at least until the Model S is out and being delivered. It has been my plan all along to make the decision to sell or not at that point. I expect a lot of the same ups and downs we have seen. But it never went over 36 before so I expect some changes but not enough for me to do the same yet. For me I feel more comfortable waiting for another buy opportunity. It may crash again on any bad news and then pounce again . . .er . .I mean I buy more if that happens before the debut is done.

 

This is my first foray into the wonderful world of the stock market, and may well be my last. Not counting Apple in 2005 which I was going to buy at 55 and sink 30k into, which at that time I could lose and not hurt too much, and then I chickened out of it, See I just don't know other companies like I knew Tesla, and knew Apple and their costs and chip advantages with the Intel switch at the time. So I can't be greedy here and lose by staying too long, and that will likely turn out to be a decision I will regret from a greedy standpoint, but one I intend to make as I was going to be happy with doubling my money in less than two years and that appears to be likely. If it goes beyond my making double before debut I will stay at least until they are out, either way. It is fun though. I doubt that with the cost of fuel this will turn sour on us anyway.

 

I don't really speak investment, but for me a really low price is when I will buy more. I am not sure what you mean by a jump in points?? That is why I am not selling any right now. While I expect and hope for a panicky sell off and another buying opportunity, I doubt I will have one so I don't want to sell now and get back in at a higher price, that loses money too. Is that what you meant, and how is that good? (I am asking you if I a understand correctly) But I do understand the bird in the hand.

Edited March 12, 2012 by RV

[ed6713]

Here's hoping you didn't buy into the gloom & doom investment scenario. The year's off to a great start.

 

 

Of course, come December 21, all bets are off.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rallied late Tuesday to close sharply higher on news that most of the nation's largest banks have passed the government's latest test of their financial health.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial average (INDU) rose 218 points, or 1.8%, to close at 13,177. It was the highest close since Dec. 31, 2007, when Dow closed at 13,264.82.

 

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 25 points, or 1.8%, to 1,396.

 

The Nasdaq (COMP) jumped 56 points, or 1.9%, to 3,040. It was the highest closing level since Nov. 15, 2000.

 

 

[Five Wood]

 

 

Of course, come December 21, all bets are off.

What happens Dec 21st????

[RV_]

Jim! Mayan Calendar??

[TheDuke]

Here it is, but don't read it unless you want a time waster. Doomsday

[Jack Mayer]

A remarkable runup. And things do look a little encouraging looking at "some" of the data. But I have no confidence in this market. I'm pulling 25% of my market funds into cash and may eventually diversify them . Just me...don't take my actions and act on just it.

[mcbockalds]

A remarkable runup.

I am reminded of a few past incredible (meaning "not credible") market peaks.

 

I feel like the unfortunate (short term) designated driver at a rocking and rolling party. It is no fun sitting idly by while the "bubbly" (pun intended) is being consumed and praised and good cheer abounds. Oh well, it is good to see when someone has a good time and heads home in a cheery mood before the bubbly runs out and the regretting begins with "tomorrow's" retching hangover.

 

Cheers! John

[RV_]

Hey guys, I already told everyone that I was in only for that one company, that does what they say they will and already have, and that I am in at least until the Model S comes out and I don't feel any problems will arise between now and then that will cause me a loss. Maybe another buy opportunity but I doubt it. The last one rebounded the same day and after hours went almost halfway back to where it was the day before, and recovered completely by the following Tuesday. Both buying opportunities I had, the last one I missed, that's right, I missed because I don't watch it every day. What will likely happen is that I will double my money, bail out, and watch it go to 500 a share in five years like Apple did when I didn't buy a large block in 2005. Or watch it crash. But I said from the start what I knew it would do and it has, and what I would do which I have. I bought in less than two years ago twice and again last August for 22 and 22.5 and could have sold out yesterday for 36 plus. But I am convinced it will double 22.5 before the Model S actually comes out. I may take half off the table then, or not, or sell all. My plan and action only takes me to the debut, and then I am in the dark as much as anyone else. But I have made a lot more than the 108 dollars a year per 10k block of money I had in a performance index account. Tens of thousands more.

 

But I would like to be clear. I have no confidence in the market for me, or my ability to wisely invest in it whether you guys are in or out, gloomy and doomy or all in and investing in anything and coming out rosy. I told y'all what I was doing, and what I intended to do if another buying opportunity came, and it did twice but I only was able to act on last August's crash to buy more, as I didn't even see the last one until it was over. I may never buy another single stock again. But you never know. Another company I have followed may come along and excite me.

 

 

 

 

[ed6713]

I am reminded of a few past incredible (meaning "not credible") market peaks.

 

I feel like the unfortunate (short term) designated driver at a rocking and rolling party. It is no fun sitting idly by while the "bubbly" (pun intended) is being consumed and praised and good cheer abounds. Oh well, it is good to see when someone has a good time and heads home in a cheery mood before the bubbly runs out and the regretting begins with "tomorrow's" retching hangover.

 

Cheers! John

 

An article worth reading. Explains why some people are so afraid to accept the reality that the US economy is improving.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-americans-avoiding-stocks-ask-225638447.html