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Markets go up and markets go down. That is what they do. Best for almost all involved if equity markets go up more than they go down.

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Perhaps, it's a good time to buy??

Yeah right. Ha. :rolleyes:

 

The problem with cheering this market (or counting returns) - either up or down - is that this market is manic, abnormal, subject to sudden violent mood swings. Why? Many reasons of course. Not the least of which is that the US and world economies have never gone through what we are going through. (The Great Depression was not that similar to today.)

 

The 'super debt cycle' (private and public) that began building perhaps 3 decades ago is a whole new game. It is like a 'game' with two periods: the first period was great fun with everyone getting rich with stocks and ever rising home values. So we consumed like crazy and borrowed like crazy - heck, we were rich and getting richer. Whoops, the first period ended and now the second period is upon us. It is debt pay back time and we are not nearly as rich as we thought, we are not rich at all (well, 1% of us are)! We have many years of debt to pay off and while we try to do that we have less money to spend on stuff and thus fewer jobs are needed to produce less stuff. Depression? Recession?

 

Not if the FED can help it. What can the FED do? Not much except continue what it was doing...expand credit, lower interest rates, print money. Ouch. So the FED and most world wide Central Banks have been flooding financial markets with money (QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, QE3?) to try to delay and soften the pain of foreclosures, bankruptcies, reduced consumption and thus high unemployment. Of course easy money is mostly what caused the super debt cycle 'game' in the first place. Easy FED money can keep financial markets puffed up for some unknown period of time, just like in the past, but not forever - just like in the past.

 

In the first period of the 'game' inflated assets (stocks, houses, etc.) caused us to feel rich and buy lots of stuff and thus generate lots of jobs making stuff. But we are slowly learning that the first period is over. The FED knows it is over, but it is trying desperately to restart the first period, without having to go through the second period of extended debt repayment, reduced consumption, and high unemployment. I don't think they will be successful. I do, however, think they can temporarily soften the second period for a limited period of time. Unfortunately, that will likely extend the second period and may, in the end, simply make it much worse. Just saying. :unsure:

 

Cheers John

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Best for almost all involved if equity markets go up more than they go down.

 

Not at all. If I were say 50 and younger and in my earning/saving/investing years and looking to retire at say 67, I would love to see financial markets stay low until I was maybe early to mid 60's and then they can go higher. During my retirement years while I am spending my retirement funds is when I want markets going higher. The ultimate 'buy low, sell high' scenario. If only!

 

Cheers john

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The cycles have traditionally been five years between troughs and the same between peaks for a ten year cycle I have been buying since the beginning of the trough, through the lower prices, and all through the rise until a couple of years ago for my funds, and now a couple of years ago my one stock which fell from a high of 38 to 33 today since last Thursday. An Arab conglomerate sold their shares high and it was a lrage block whioch further scared the rest into selling. As usual I saifd I should sell now a day before it droppesd with the thought of rebuying shares at a price like today but again I didn't, if I did I would find no price drop, just my luck.

 

Anyway I agree on the volatility, but as to your comment and my observation of years and cycles I may have that timing you mention close John, as I turn 60 later this year. Granted I am already retired and set, but I fully expect maturity and stability long enough to cash in. I already have all the property and reserves I need, and no debt of any kind, not even the house or property.

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The market goes up and everyone's doing the happy dance. Market goes down and.....SOOO quiet.

 

Not so. I was doing the happy dance over the last few days as I am sure some other active investors were doing. I would much rather see movement in the market rather than stalled levels. I had moved a significant amount of October to March profits into cash and was just waiting for this type of event. And made some small - moderate ETF purchases over the last few days. I have GTC sell orders in now to capture up movements.

 

Some short term trading might be possible with some renewed volatility. All we need is some fear in the market to generate some rapid movements.

 

And yes, I do have long term investments but they got balanced with the growth of certain segments in the 30% rise. No reason to just sit and complain about the Fed, Europe, debt, etc. A smart investor will learn to deal with the situation.

 

Perhaps we can get one of our resident fear-mongers to link another doom and gloom article. Perhaps they could quote Harold Camping telling us to sell all, look to the heavens, and prepare for the end.

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This is too good not to share. Rick Santelli, today, telling it like it is!

 

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2012/04/12/MUST-WATCH-Santelli-Crushes-Buffett-Rule-Economic-Plan

Rick has never been known to be shy! But I WONDER, doesn't he know there is, "No reason to just sit and complain about the Fed, Europe, debt, etc."

 

Cheers John

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Guest cindona

Did I hear someone requesting a doom and gloom link? I thought so!! Guess what?? I found what some may deem fear mongering......I, however, prefer to call it factual. Funny thing facts..

 

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/19-signs-of-very-serious-economic-trouble-on-the-horizon

 

 

OKAY!!!! As I posted this reply, I happened to notice my warn bar had increased. When, I do not know, as I rarely post here anymore, and what I have posted in the past few months, has been no different than others posting here, except I am in the minority. In other words, I don't have money in the stock market and I don't believe we are in a recovery, AND I am not shy about stating so. Someone obviously reported me. Why?? Hmm...no idea. I didn't receive a warning, nor a message. Wow.

Edited by cindona

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Did I hear someone requesting a doom and gloom link? I thought so!! Guess what?? I found what some may deem fear mongering......I, however, prefer to call it factual. Funny thing facts..

 

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/19-signs-of-very-serious-economic-trouble-on-the-horizon

 

 

OKAY!!!! As I posted this reply, I happened to notice my warn bar had increased. When, I do not know, as I rarely post here anymore, and what I have posted in the past few months, has been no different than others posting here, except I am in the minority. In other words, I don't have money in the stock market and I don't believe we are in a recovery, AND I am not shy about stating so. Someone obviously reported me. Why?? Hmm...no idea. I didn't receive a warning, nor a message. Wow.

Just to give the other side its say, I love this one. It is usually trotted out after the DOW has slid a thousand points or so. It came out really early this time. Do they know something - I doubt it! The FED is so in control of markets at this point in time,...hmmmm, but then again who knows when a balloon will pop or what will cause it to pop? Now that would be a 'smart investor!'

 

 

Cheers John

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John,

I don't have any warns and also did not report any of your, or anybody else's posts. If I have an issue I will say it directly and as I have found most folks are reasonable and respond in kind. If it is intrusive and made to me I object to the content not the person. If all I can think of is a personal slur, then I hold my water, as my momma taught me if I don't have anything nice to say, to keep quiet, and wait till I am armed! :lol: :lol: :lol: John, I don't think you are doing anything but missing the fun even if you were right. For example I almost did as one here suggested in email and take half of mine off the table when it gets high and I almost did that last week. Well then a 4% holder in Abu Dahbi sold their shares and took their profits. This shook the already shaky folks and really made me mad at myself for staying pat. Not because I lost a possible 5 dollar profit over today and then buy back the same number of stock shares, or as I would have done, plowed them back into TSLA of more shares as we come up to Model S debut.

 

Now if anybody wants to play as I have said many times and only a couple have listened, I see no reason it will not go to 38 plus on or up to the debut of the Model S later this summer. So today it is down to 33 plus. So have I lost? Nope, just shaky people losing themselves, or taking less profit than will occur if it goes back to 38 or more. I expect 38 but again if it comes long before the Model S, I will, Like the Abu Dhabi investors did, sell high and hope all panic as they did in this case.

 

I have repeatedly said I am no expert on this. But my opinion is it won't lose and will go to at least 38 by the time the Model S debuts or more. Am I alone in this opinion. Nope, Forbes wrote about it today too:

http://www.forbes.co...rtner=yahoofeed

 

This is fun actually. And John I think you are wrong in this way. If we were sitting at an oasis in the desert and I was drinking from the spring and you said it was dry and refused to try to drink, because you have the background and training in spring science, and since you and all the experts you find to agree and you read say it is dry, then it must be and I am mistaken, then you will have proven yourself right as you die of thirst. And I will have drunk deeply. You cannot convince people making money that they are losing money. That's a fact, Jack! ;):D

Edited by RV

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...but then again who knows when a balloon will pop or what will cause it to pop? Now that would be a 'smart investor!'

Cheers John

 

I know what will cause the balloon to pop, John. What I don't know is just when.

$200/barrel oil will bring the world economy to a screeching halt. If you like $4 gas, just imagine $10 gas.

What will cause $200 oil? A military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

I personally believe it's inevitable but don't know *when* it will happen. My personal, unsupported by any facts or insight, guess is between 12 and 24 months from now.

Until then it's laissez les bon temps rouller. With the very typical peaks & valleys based on the crisis de jour. (Took two years of French in high school.) :rolleyes:

 

ed

 

Please. This is not an attempt to politicize the Iran issue in any way whatsoever. It's simply my answer to the question posed. The oil gurus tend to believe that Middle East tensions make a huge contribution to todays $100+ oil. Can you just imagine Mid-East *tension* to the tenth power??

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Made some good money today as my ETF positions sold. Yes, I could have held out for more but my knowledge of my own investing shortcomings makes me accept single hits instead of waiting for home runs. I have done pretty well doing this.

 

I applaud all who give investing a try. RV, our styles are different but I am sure happy to see you making good moves and sticking with it. And I have no issues if others decide investing is not for them. It is just frustrating when those who don't want to invest due to fear, lack of knowledge, incorrect knowledge, etc, attempting to influence others not to try.

 

I have no doubt that the economy is in trouble. However it does not mean you can't make money in these crazy times. Personally I would prefer to build a large and well diversified portfolio while I am able to prepare for bad times that may or may not come later. We have enough stashed away to live in almost any scenario And we will continue to try to grow the total as we "bank" our principal and a portion of annual profits. It sure beats getting sucked into the doom and gloom hype and not taking action.

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Investing or trading? Our entire portfolio is invested with a 403b retirement fund company and two IRA fund companies. All three companies heavily penalize trading of retirement and IRA funds. Balancing is OK, but not trading. Each one penalizes a bit differently, but all make it costly. I don't mind this because I have no interest in trading and their policies discourage other people in the funds from trading and that helps keep the fees down.

 

I have NO interest in trying to persuade people here from trading. None, nada. Only one of my posts, that was poorly worded, sounded like I was bashing traders, but I wasn't and I got that cleared up, I think.

 

My posts are all about whether or not stocks and bonds are in a bubble due to the actions of the FED. Whether or not I am right, has no affect on traders. Smart/lucky/unlucky traders can make/lose money whether or not the markets are in a bubble or not.

 

I have all the education and time I would need to become a trader, but I lack the interest. Simple as that.

 

Good luck to all traders and investors on this site. Your good or bad luck does not affect the value of my portfolio. So again, I wish you buena suerte. (Didn't take high school Spanish - lived in Tucson for 3 years.) :)

 

Salud John

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This is fun actually. And John I think you are wrong in this way. If we were sitting at an oasis in the desert and I was drinking from the spring and you said it was dry and refused to try to drink, because you have the background and training in spring science, and since you and all the experts you find to agree and you read say it is dry, then it must be and I am mistaken, then you will have proven yourself right as you die of thirst. And I will have drunk deeply. You cannot convince people making money that they are losing money. That's a fact, Jack! ;):D

Fun analogy RV and yet I, of course, see your analogy a bit differently. I am not saying the spring is dry. I can see y'all are drinking some very cool, wet, tasty water, while I refuse to drink and am practically dying of thirst. Why? Because I believe the water is not safe. You see, I'm a light sleeper and each night I see Ben B. pumping tainted water into the spring. I have told you this, but I have no real proof (only theory and a bit of history) that it will harm you. So I don't drink as long as Ben keeps it up, or until someone or something comes along to flush out all the "trillions of gallons" of tainted water. In the mean time, I admit, I am getting pretty thirsty! :D

 

Cheers and Salud John

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I know what will cause the balloon to pop, John. What I don't know is just when.

$200/barrel oil will bring the world economy to a screeching halt. If you like $4 gas, just imagine $10 gas.

What will cause $200 oil? A military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

I personally believe it's inevitable but don't know *when* it will happen. My personal, unsupported by any facts or insight, guess is between 12 and 24 months from now.

Until then it's laissez les bon temps rouller. With the very typical peaks & valleys based on the crisis de jour. (Took two years of French in high school.) :rolleyes:

 

ed

 

 

 

Could be you will be right. Could also be that it will be Espana.

 

Cheers John

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You cannot convince people making money that they are losing money. That's a fact, Jack! ;):D

Remember, "you don't ever count your money when sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin' done."

 

So how are things at the Oasis. Is Ben B. still pumping? Hussman has probably never been more negative. Some interesting quotes from his report:

 

I have no desire to persuade investors to abandon their discipline or make major changes to their portfolio allocations
if
they have considered the potential risks carefully.

 

I'm quite aware that the investing world has ruled out any possibility of extended market losses thanks to the confident certainty that the Fed is capable of preventing both market declines and economic downturns indefinitely.

 

our estimate of potential market losses over a 6-month window is now in the worst 0.5% of historical observations.

 

Cheers John

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Another great day in the market. I am glad that the volatility has returned rather than a stagnant level. Was able to buy and sell 4,000 shares in the last 5 days (2 cycles of down then up).

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Hi John,

 

Just read that. Sorry the oasis is fine, I missed a sell then re-buy lower opportunity and am still up ten bucks a share. Good time to buy back for those that got out for a better price and a profit taking. I don't expect any real losses for those of us in from start, until after the Model S debut, if ever. I don't read the bad news posts and don't read the good news ones because I have come to the conclusion that the writers, like all, have a target audience who eats all they serve, and each is specific. I also don't read the positive ones as they are the same. I do not read any of them, as I am focused on this one stock IPO to date. I will also participate in any IPO he has for his Space X company if ever. I think perhaps you mistake me for a stock person of whatever title you want to add to that. I am not anything other than an investor in a specific person and company. I am not a trader, nor an advisor. Nor think anybody should or should not follow me. I don't read any links of the bombasts that are published with their if it bleeds it leads approaches. And today, most take that from either perspective, stay or get in the market, or get out or don't get in now. ;)

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Just too much important information in this week's economic analysis by John Hussman to not post it. I also like his comment,

 

"It's important to understand that I have no intent of encouraging investors - even buy-and-hold investors - to deviate from their investment disciplines, or from thoughtfully structured portfolios. Many investors are comfortable maintaining their exposure to market fluctuations through the complete bull-bear cycle. As long as these investors are committed to that discipline - recognizing the size and regularity of periodic losses we've observed particularly over the past 12 years - my views should not affect their investment strategy. My main objective is always the same - that shareholders see the things that I am looking at so they understand what we are doing and why."

 

If you start to get bogged down in some of the more technical stuff in the article then just skim through that section, because more important and easier to understand analysis is "just around the next paragraph."

 

If you get tired reading this article, maybe you would like to watch this video that I would title, "didn't we see this movie a few years ago?"

 

Cheers John

Edited by mcbockalds

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John,

 

You referenced John Hussman as a source several times, which is fine. I prefer the blogs from Paul Krugman, Simon Johnson and John Taylor. They tend to be shorter and more focused than the Hussman stuff I've read. IMO, the first two are nearly polar opposites of third. They provide a good range of opinions. Krugman is as least as data intensive as Hussman. He can go off the deep-end, with his unabashed liberal leaning, but I find his data analysis and sources to be sound (unlike many think tank pieces).

 

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/

http://baselinescenario.com/

http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/

 

BTW, I finished moving to 100% cash equivalents at the end of March. I'm not a market timer, but even after one big change, I found my portfolio mix to a mess - indefensible. So I decided to sell at a time that looked like it was more likely to be near a high than a low. I plan to start buying again at S&P 1275 and be fully invested (or not) by about 1140.

 

And for my contribution to entertainment, here is a little comic satire: http://www.dailykos....-The-Austerions

 

Dan

 

On edit: Of course, neither I, nor anyone else knows what the market will do. So if the market does not decline as much as I think it will this year, I'll join the buy on the dips crowd.

Edited by Dan Zemke

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I am doing the same as Dan. Moved all our August - April market profits out of equities and a good chunk of other investments as well to cash/fixed. We will be averaging back in a little sooner than Dan. It is nice to be able to lock in the profits from the rise and to wait for some bargains. It was tempting today but will hold till lower for the long investments. I will still do some short term market trades to ride the volatility.

 

This is an exciting time if you like to actively invest/trade.

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Two pieces of news. First off Space X (Space Exploration) launched their Falcon rocket and Dragon capsule to the ISS successfully and made history in the process. Even though Boeing and Lockheed fought them with their lobbyists inside the beltway and said that no company could design, build and test a reliable launch vehicle in the short time frame Space X said they would, Space X did anyway. I put this here because it is related to my past posts and those who have paid attention already know how it does. Firstly like Tesla they did what all the naysayers with different interests said could not be done (hoped anyway.) Secondly like Tesla they actually delivered on time with no giant increases in costs. And in both cases Space X and Tesla both did very expensive vehicles and made them better faster, and cheaper than their counterparts in Rockets and super cars.

 

The owner of Space X will be taking it to IPO sometime in the near future. I would watch for it. The reason I think that these companies will succeed is that they take a similar approach to Lockheed's Skunkworks of the 50's which produced the C-130 and the SR-71 in under a year each and both are still flying daily or flyable and retired. They were modeled after Bell Labs and fostered the kind of free thinking not corporate red tape laden engineering and fun for the engineers at work that they made great leaps without CEOS getting in the way or greedy corps. Very much like the best companies from Silicon valley where the dress code is hoodies and T-shirts because the important thing isn't appearance but substance.

 

They have a lot in common with Pay Pal too, a silicon valley company, as well in both management style and value through substance.

 

The news on Tesla is that it along with many others is down and with the worldwide panic may get down to my buy point of 22.5 briefly again. Briefly you say? You bet! See the Model S begins deliveries in the next two to four weeks and once they show they delivered again. As they did when they delivered the first roadsters in 2008 when no one thought a performance all electric super car for less than the lowest priced real super car was priced could even be done poorly, let alone successfully with all the first year sold out in advance and all of the cars paid for, up front, in full.

 

Remember that I am the least experienced person here in investing directly in the stock market. Here is my call with no confidence in the timing only that I believe that these events actually are about to happen. They could take a month or a week, but near term, here is what is going to go down. The stock will follow the decline of the market creating a buy opportunity. Then the first Model S will be delivered and many previous investors realizing that the other stocks etc. are not a hedge against high fuel prices and that there are no havens that will make a profit will possibly jump into or back into Tesla. But regardless, Elon and his company will continue to produce them ad reap economies of scale, eventually producing the elusive family car at family car prices. I do not doubt he will get there. So I expect the stock to be volatile and provide a buy price and sell price in the next few weeks. Timing it? Well don't look to me for that. I should have sold half and took my principal back at 38 but did not. But watch and see if the events don't happen exactly as I posted back almost two years ago in 2010 when I first bought on their IPO. Granted he could die or get in an accident and not be able to lead. But then again I could too!

 

For those who missed it, Elon Musk who owns Tesla, also invented with two friends and sold Pay Pal, and also owns Space X outright pretty much and is a rocket scientist de facto. Not for everybody but like they always say, and folks have difficulty doing, I choose to buy low and sell high. I may lose but not from fear. From miscalculating a product and the demand. But I have not done that often.

 

Happy investing folks, it has become one heckuva buyer's market. It won't last which is good news for some and bad news for others. See even seller's markets never last either. It is a cycle. And it is time for Elon Musk like companies to take over and actually make things happen instead of reaping with no sowing, as the leaders of our industries are doing now. If I were a paranoid I would think that the world recession and lower oil prices are manipulated by big interests to try to deflect Tesla and bring it down. They can't. The genie is out of the bottle. We won't need much oil, sooner than even they think. Watch.

:D

 

It is just part of the cycle. All we have to do is invest wisely.

BTW declining fuel prices to even 2.90 aren't going to stop the EVs from taking over the market. To do that the markets for oil would have to deliver sub dollar a gallon gas again and Diesel cheaper than gas as it should be.

 

Did you know that a peppy small diesel in cars would double the mileage we expect from each size now except the smallest and maybe those too? Why only the VW TDI diesel in the US today? Why isn't the Smart Car diesel here and only in Canada.

 

It is volatile and that is when the most money can be made or lost. Up to us if we can.

Edited by RV

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So RV, that battery of your's is half charged, not half empty:)! (Oh wait, that glass of your's is half full...)

 

I was very pleased to see Space X success... It does show what we can do... Skunk Works was a good way of explaining the 'mental culture' of what a group of people with leadership, and in this case - good leadership, was getting out of the way and enabling, can do.

 

You know I recovered, and then a bit more, of my Tesla. Two times in, and two times a shuffle of position out. I retain a long position in Tesla with the balance, glass half full you know... You mentioned what was going on in the world economy, and until this equalizes to a clearer calm - I'm sitting our a few of the trembling cycles ahead... Sure, money could be made. And sure, money could be lost... I just know enough to know I don't know - so will keep the moth's in my wallet well fed for a period ahead...

 

So, while I'm a battery, glass, is half charged, full, kind of guy - for now I'll be a fence sitter!!! That's me, and means nothing to anyone else, as we all have different needs and perspectives - and that is not only OK, it is as it should be:)!

 

All my best, have fun,

Smitty

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:lol: :lol: I got a charge out of your post! But I wasn't shocked by it.;)

 

Smitty,

No problem! I can say the only reason I stayed in in full and resisted the urge to sell half for the high of 38, again I gave hung in there for 7 or 8 of these cycles with Tesla and I am thinking it is a good risk that they will spike again in the next few weeks. Your position makes as much sense as mine does to you. I am in my mind taking a calculated risk as I could sell at 28.15 where is it is today and make the difference between half my shares at 22.5 and half at 17.5. That would be nothing to sneeze at either.

 

However since I have been passing along what I have done and am going to do with this stock, I just wanted to let all know that the end of what I predicted correctly, minus exact timing, ans come to pass, is almost at an end. My vision ends when Tesla starts delivering their cars. All along I was saying that was the hard decision point. And it is. Barring an inability to deliver the Model S on time, (this Month) which I doubt will happen regardless of the world markets, I then have to decide, likely next week, whether to sell half/keep half, sell it all, or hold it all.

 

I also wanted for everybody to connect the dots between SpaceX, Tesla, Pay Pal, and the owner of all three before IPO of Tesla, and sale of Pay Pal, Elon Musk. And be aware of all that when SpaceX goes to IPO in the next year or two. Few people have this much insight into the past and minds of the owners and results of the companies they invest in, as we do now for this next Musk company IPO. Whether anybody Buys it, stays away, or stays out of the markets because they are still too volatile, all will know SpaceX here regardless. I am glad I did not wait for it first. I expect to have more to invest in it when they are ready. Will they continue this year with Tesla? Don't forget that unlike the other car companies, this whole first year of production is already sold and deposits in hand for every one of them. The next year is a no brainer if they show they can produce the 20k cars they say they can and I think that is also almost a sure thing.

 

Good luck everybody and I hope you are wishing me the same. I will need it!;)

Edited by RV

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