Tesla Could Be The Top US Vehicle Seller By The End Of Next Year (2024)

RV_ · January 14, 2023

Very interesting article indeed!

Excerpt:

"Forecast For Tesla Sales

The 6 models that Tesla will be selling in 2024:

Tesla Semi. Now, I don’t expect the semi to sell many units. Although, looking at what we have written about the Semi, we do expect it to change everything! Tesla plans to make 50,000 Semis by next year, but how will that ramp? I think we can expect that it will be slow in 2023 and accelerate in 2024. So, it might be a couple thousand in 2023 and 48,000 in 2024. But does that mean Tesla will be making 12,000 each quarter in 2024? No, that isn’t how the ramp works — Tesla will probably start the year making 3,000 a quarter and end the year making 20,000 a quarter. That would put Tesla at an annual run rate of 80,000 Semis a year, which happens to be about the same sales as Freighlighter, the leader in Class 8 (semi) sales in the US.

Model S & X are pretty easy to estimate. In its recent press release, Tesla reported sales of over 20,000 Model S and X vehicles (all in the US) in 2022. I expect with aggressive pricing, the company may be able to increase its sales of its premium duo a modest 10% a year to reach 24,000 a quarter by the fourth quarter of 2024.

The Model 3 & Model Y had about 120,000 sales in the US in the 4th quarter using GoodCarBadCar.com estimates above. That is taking the 140,000 figure above and subtracting the 20,000 Model S and X sales. The best selling crossover was the Toyota RAV4 at about 97,000 sales, while the best selling car was the Toyota Camry at about 81,000 sales. As I discussed in this recent article, by the end of next year, Tesla will be in a position to sell both the Model 3 and Y for under $30,000 to people eligible for the $7,500 US tax credit for ZEVs. The cheapest Tesla Model Y cost $65,990 for most of the 4th quarter of last year and the cheapest Model 3 was $46,990. But then are the reductions in starting prices (trims are not identical, since I’m assuming a standard range RWD Model Y to be announced) of 54% for the Model Y and 36% for the Model 3! Let’s compare that to Toyota’s prices, where the cheapest Camry is over $26,000 and the cheapest RAV4 starts at about $28,000. Toyota doesn’t have the margin to reduce the prices of their cars, and they don’t know how to make them much cheaper. The learning curve on making gas vehicles doesn’t make significant advances anymore. I think it is reasonable with all the advantages of a Tesla (style, environmental, fuel costs, maintenance, depreciation, safety, performance, etc.) over a Toyota that if Toyota could sell 178,000 of those two models in the 4th quarter of last year, Tesla could sell 55% more than that (or 276,000) of its very popular Model Y and Model 3 in the 4th quarter of 2024, assuming they are available close to $30,000. Can Tesla make that many vehicles in Austin and Fremont? Don’t bet against Tom Zhu.

The Cybertruck is going to really shake up its market, just like every Tesla model has done. I’m betting that if Ford can sell about 187,000 F-Series vehicles in the last quarter, Tesla will be able to sell 100,000 Cybertrucks. With Tesla estimated to have between a million and 3 million reservations for the Cybertruck, demand should not be an issue, but will Tesla be able to ramp up production? I’m betting that Tom Zhu, the man credited with the incredible Shanghai Gigafactory ramp over the last few years, will be able to work the same magic in Austin. We shall see!"