Why Goldman Sachs is staying super bullish on the Elon Musk-led Tesla

[RV_]

I am still long on Tesla and now have ~ the same number of shares I had originally when I bought on IPO in 2010. That is because of the 3 for 1 split. I am sure glad I bought on the drop just after the last 5 for 1 split in 2020.

The price will drop to 1/3 after a three for one split give or take and I am very confident Tesla's shares will go back up in time to well over $1000 again in the short to medium term. They are almost $100 less than when I bought last. If they drop below $200 I will be buying more again, even though I think they are a bargain now. We only keep a year or so worth of living expenses cash as in a savings account. So I can go half of that if Tesla goes to under $200 since my cash is tied up in long investments. Now is not the time to sell but to buy. I am wishing I had not bought NBEV where I lost $3k as they just stopped trading and filed for bankruptcy. As well my Rivian shares are down so I can’t sell those yet to buy more Tesla as we hold those shares long like Tesla and I don’t feel they have matured yet. Our Tesla shares are being held long no matter what.

Excerpt:

"We expect Tesla to expand margins in the medium term as it ramps the important Model Y product as well as new factories in Berlin, Germany and Austin, Texas, and in the long-term as it increases its mix of software revenue," the analysts added.

The vote of confidence comes amid a volatile few weeks for Tesla's stock and CEO Elon Musk.

"Certainly all stocks are experiencing difficulty in this environment as the market tries to understand how far the Fed is going to go and how deep this recession is going to be. So Tesla is a solution to the problem," Wood exclusively told Yahoo Finance Live. "We think that gas-powered vehicles are going to be obsolete within the next 5 to 10 years. And the traditional auto industry has to figure out a way to migrate into electric vehicles and into the next big phase, which we think Tesla is leading, the autonomous taxi platform phase."

We believe that Tesla, given its leadership position in EVs (including its vertical integration and tight coupling of hardware and software, as well as its ecosystem of charging stations and brand), and its focus on clean transportation more broadly (given its solar and storage businesses) will be best positioned to capitalize on the long-term shift to EVs," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a new paper looking at winners from the shift to autonomous driving.

Goldman reiterated a buy rating on Tesla shares with a $305 price target, which assumes about 45% upside from current levels.”

Source:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-super-bullish-tesla-155740711.html

 

 

[Kirk W]

Top 10 holdings, according to INVESCO

1.       Apple Inc ~ Allocation: 13.56%

2.      Microsoft Corp~ Allocation: 10.49%

3.      Amazon.com Inc ~ Allocation: 6.87%

4.      Tesla Inc ~ Allocation: 4.04%

5.      Alphabet Inc Class C ~ Allocation: 3.68%

6.      Alphabet Inc Class A ~ Allocation: 3.55%

7.      Meta Platforms Inc Class A ~ Allocation: 2.71%

8.     NVIDIA Corp ~ Allocation: 2.47%

9.     PepsiCo Inc ~ Allocation: 2.34%

10.   Costco Wholesale Corp ~  Allocation: 2.02%

[RV_]

Thanks Kirk very good current list!

 

[RV_]

11 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Top 10 holdings, according to INVESCO

1.       Apple Inc ~ Allocation: 13.56%

2.      Microsoft Corp~ Allocation: 10.49%

3.      Amazon.com Inc ~ Allocation: 6.87%

4.      Tesla Inc ~ Allocation: 4.04%

5.      Alphabet Inc Class C ~ Allocation: 3.68%

6.      Alphabet Inc Class A ~ Allocation: 3.55%

7.      Meta Platforms Inc Class A ~ Allocation: 2.71%

8.     NVIDIA Corp ~ Allocation: 2.47%

9.     PepsiCo Inc ~ Allocation: 2.34%

10.   Costco Wholesale Corp ~  Allocation: 2.02%

Kirk ,

The Topic is Tesla and how Goldman is bullish on them and why with a video for other Tesla investors here like me. I have tried to run down your list and Invesco apparently is a mutual fund company is all I can find and I am an individual stock investor and posted this article for other individual stock investors that hold Tesla stock. I have done Index funds in the past and may consider them again with the markets down and some being lower costs than other types of funds. in many cases.

I would like your link so I can see the context of that list, the date and the prices for each today. It is not much use if that list is from Jan 2021. These kinds of lists generally include prices in the list making comparisons to Tesla's price easy.

Is that a mutual fund list for Invesco?? What would that have to do with this topic? I just got around to looking for this.

Edited October 18, 2022 by RV_

[mptjelgin]

1 hour ago, RV_ said:

 

I would like your link so I can see the context of that list, the date and the prices for each today. It is not much use if that list is from Jan 2021. These kinds of lists generally include prices in the list making comparisons to Tesla's price easy.

Took me about 30 seconds to find this on Google:

Invesco QQQ

[Kirk W]

It came from an enewsletter sent to me by a friend. Same list as the link above.

[RV_]

16 hours ago, mptjelgin said:

Took me about 30 seconds to find this on Google:

Invesco QQQ

 

[RV_]

Thanks Kirk Mark got it!

So back to the topic.

What do you think of this sentence from the article I excerpted from?

"We think that gas-powered vehicles are going to be obsolete within the next 5 to 10 years. And the traditional auto industry has to figure out a way to migrate into electric vehicles and into the next big phase, which we think Tesla is leading, the autonomous taxi platform phase."

From an investment in EV production standpoint it appears Tesla is still in the lead and the others behind. But I think with the moves traditional automakers are making to separate their EV sales models to be in line with direct sales pricing will make most dealers see the writing on the wall. No manufacturer with middle men can compete and pay them.

And the DTC (Direct To Consumer) sales models like Tesla, Rivian, Lucid and a hundred others are not going away.

I posted what Ford and GM are doing to transition to EVs and get competitive, another topic, in another thread in this forum.

 

 

[Kirk W]

2 hours ago, RV_ said:

What do you think of this sentence from the article I excerpted from?

I would be very surprised if they are completely obsolete in all versions but I have been surprised before. Commuter cars I suspect will be. If they are including trucks in the statement I would be really amazed to see them obsolete that soon or in my lifetime, but keeping in mind that I am now 80 years old. But the only really sure thing is that things will be changing even more and more quickly in the next 5 - 10 years. 

[mptjelgin]

I think that "obsolete" is a pretty specific term, and I doubt that it is correct. I find that articles like this tend to concentrate on the typical urban/suburban commuter whose driving patterns are quite predictable (and modest) and very well suited to EV's. And for that very significant portion of the market, gasoline vehicles becoming obsolete in 10 (I doubt 5) years may well be. 

But I live in a very rural area, where driving a couple of hundred miles a day, perhaps pulling a trailer or carrying a large load is very common. The most common vehicle in my part of the world is the 3/4 or one ton diesel pickup. Current diesel pickups are putting out 1000+ kip-ft of torque and 450 - 500 hp, and doing it for hundreds on miles on a single tank of fuel. And then filling up in 5 - 10 minutes and doing it all again. I haven't seen any EV proposed yet that is a viable replacement for those vehicles, nor do I see one on the horizon.

But you know what? It doesn't matter what I think or what Kirk thinks or what you think about this. In 5 - 10 years we'll know the answer.

You enjoy discussing this type of thing ad-nauseum, while I am primarily interested in RV's and RV'ing. That is why I am on this board!!  When I am looking for solid information regarding EV's or investing I look elsewhere... 

 

[RV_]

20 hours ago, Kirk W said:

I would be very surprised if they are completely obsolete in all versions but I have been surprised before. Commuter cars I suspect will be. If they are including trucks in the statement I would be really amazed to see them obsolete that soon or in my lifetime, but keeping in mind that I am now 80 years old. But the only really sure thing is that things will be changing even more and more quickly in the next 5 - 10 years. 

"Commuter cars I suspect will be. If they are including trucks in the statement I would be really amazed to see them obsolete that soon or in my lifetime, but keeping in mind that I am now 80 years old."

I agree with you too Kirk if by trucks you mean HDTs. Pickups I think will be obsolete too because of the FUD busting seeing them in actual use does, and seeing their friends using them even more so. More later.

Edited October 20, 2022 by RV_

[RV_]

19 hours ago, mptjelgin said:

I think that "obsolete" is a pretty specific term, and I doubt that it is correct. I find that articles like this tend to concentrate on the typical urban/suburban commuter whose driving patterns are quite predictable (and modest) and very well suited to EV's. And for that very significant portion of the market, gasoline vehicles becoming obsolete in 10 (I doubt 5) years may well be. 

But I live in a very rural area, where driving a couple of hundred miles a day, perhaps pulling a trailer or carrying a large load is very common. The most common vehicle in my part of the world is the 3/4 or one ton diesel pickup. Current diesel pickups are putting out 1000+ kip-ft of torque and 450 - 500 hp, and doing it for hundreds on miles on a single tank of fuel. And then filling up in 5 - 10 minutes and doing it all again. I haven't seen any EV proposed yet that is a viable replacement for those vehicles, nor do I see one on the horizon.

But you know what? It doesn't matter what I think or what Kirk thinks or what you think about this. In 5 - 10 years we'll know the answer.

You enjoy discussing this type of thing ad-nauseum, while I am primarily interested in RV's and RV'ing. That is why I am on this board!!  When I am looking for solid information regarding EV's or investing I look elsewhere... 

 

Mark,

You enjoy coming to the investing forums ad nauseum trying to naysay and apparently my posts in particular.

You see things are changing almost daily in the reality of transitioning to EVs in passenger vehicles and light duty trucks. Some folks appreciate the information and others don't read them or comment.

If you are primarily interested in RVing threads what are you doing on the investing forums here whenever you see me or Tesla mentioned??

I am going to answer your inaccurate assumptions in my next post. Meanwhile if you don't like the facts sorry they are just facts and your not liking them changes nothing.

Let's look at some facts.

Rivian R1T I am waiting to be delivered:

"How Is the Rivian R1T So Much Quicker Than Other Pickups?

Easy: It comes down to motors. Four of 'em, to be exact. The Rivian R1T has four permanent-magnet motors, each one mounted inboard at a wheel, which combine to produce 835 horsepower and 908 lb-ft of torque. The front motors are slightly less powerful than the rear, producing 415 hp and 413 lb-ft versus 420 hp and 495 lb-ft. The big 135-kW battery pack is capable of charging at speeds up to 190 kW (though we're told the system will eventually be able to handle 300-kW peak speeds), giving the R1T 314 miles of range and 74/66/70 mpg-e city/highway/combined EPA ratings."

Source Motortrend: https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2022-rivian-r1t-first-test-0-60-mph-review/

However on the horizon are new batteries I posted about here that will be giving 600 mile plus ranges and faster charging times, 10 minutes in tests, expected within the next year or two. It just takes that long to retool both the vehicles and the manufacturing plants to get them out and in the cars. But the R&D is already done.

Today you have an advantage only towing at full capacity which will disappear soon as the newer batteries come on board allowing EV trucks to tow as far as fossil fueled trucks at max capacity. Mine will only go 150-200 with a max capacity load. Next year or at most the year after the real challenge begins in trucks when EV trucks will go 600 miles and more off load.

We agree on your statement that "I find that articles like this tend to concentrate on the typical urban/suburban commuter whose driving patterns are quite predictable (and modest) and very well suited to EV's. And for that very significant portion of the market, gasoline vehicles becoming obsolete in 10 (I doubt 5) years may well be."

Except I believe the 5 years is accurate. But may take 10 however I doubt that Mark.

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by RV_

[mptjelgin]

Rivian may be a decent comparison/replacement to the popular 1/2 ton trucks in terms of load carrying and towing capability, but they are a very long way from the one-tons. 

But as I said earlier, it really doesn't matter what you or I think right now, hopefully we'll be around to see the reality in 5 (or ten) years. 

 

[Ray,IN]

Dang Derek; I gotta quit reading your posts. Every time, my stomach  knots up thinking about my failure to buy Tesla stock when you first advised me on its prospects.

 

[RV_]

On 10/20/2022 at 4:52 PM, mptjelgin said:

Rivian may be a decent comparison/replacement to the popular 1/2 ton trucks in terms of load carrying and towing capability, but they are a very long way from the one-tons. 

But as I said earlier, it really doesn't matter what you or I think right now, hopefully we'll be around to see the reality in 5 (or ten) years. 

 

I agree! And hope to be here too. If you mean the range under load IMO that should be in the next two years as they gin up production of the new batteries. I am glad to only have to buy them not make them. It is moving too fast for most to keep up.

I am driving half that reality right now. Growing up I rode overhead wired electric trains and the electric railed subways in my home region of NYC/CT. In the 90s all electric taxis and trucks on ski trips for a week or two to Zermatt Switzerland (The Matterhorn) that had been the only vehicles since 1978 allowed there when ICE vehicles were banned.

Some up and coming:

Conventional Pickup Sizing/Pricing

Expect a range of wheelbases from 144 to 176 inches and most other general dimensions to mostly mirror that of the conventional 3/4- and 1-ton pickups, with pricing also lining up with them. Hanchett targets $45,000 to start for a short-wheelbase 300-mile XT truck good for 10,000 pounds of towing. The 500-mile 35,000-pound gooseneck/fifth-wheel-prepped model should start around $85,000.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/2022-atlis-xt-electric-ev-pickup-truck-first-look/