Toyota Claims It Just Can’t Keep Up

[RV_]

Wow! Guess the market is having its say. And Toyota is lagging far behind.

Excerpt:

"In August, 22% of new vehicle sales in China, the largest car market in the world, were fully electric (30% had a plug). That’s August 2022, not August 2035. China, notably, modeled its EV policies in large part on California’s. (A few years ago, I talked with a Chinese-American professor at a California university who was a top advisor to the Chinese government on this.)

In the same month, August 2022, 13% of new vehicle sales in Europe were fully electric (21% had a plug). The UK is up to 17% of new vehicle sales being fully electric (22% having a plug). Norway is up to 77.7% of new vehicle sales being fully electric (89.1% having a plug).

Looking globally, 11% of new vehicle sales are fully electric vehicles sales, and 15% have a plug. In August 2022.

If Toyoda truly thinks Toyota can’t go fully electric in California by 2035, then he’s lost. Whether he truly believes that or not, though, his recent statement indicates that Toyota just can’t keep up. It has been failing in regards to the EV transition, and Toyoda thus wants to slow the whole industry down.

I’m wrapping up our 3rd quarter U.S. EV sales report. More than 200,000 fully electric vehicles were sold in the United States in the 3rd quarter. Guess how many fully electric Toyotas were sold here. Zero.

Yup, zero.

I’m also working on our quarterly U.S. auto industry sales report (see the previous one here). Toyota’s U.S. auto sales were down by 26,419 vehicles (5%) in the 3rd quarter of 2022 versus the 3rd quarter of 2021. Compared to the 3rd quarter of pre-pandemic 2019, Toyota’s sales were down by 94,885 units (17%). In those same periods of time, fully electric Tesla saw its sales grow by 32,000 (32%) and 82,367 (169%).

Toyota became the top selling automaker in the United States in 2021, dethroning GM for the first time since 1931 (the first time any other company was #1 — Toyota, of course, was never #1 in the USA before 2021). “I actually did a little ‘happy dance’ in my office,” Toyoda said. “Thankfully nobody saw it!” Toyoda may be celebrating that it shrunk less than GM lately, but Toyota’s party time may not last long if it’s going to stick to this stubborn path of EV resistance. (Notably, GM now plans to go fully electric by 2035.)

Toyota still has plenty of influence. It reportedly was a key entity blocking the Build Back Better bill and watering down some portions of the EV tax credits made available through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. But its commitment to fighting EV progress is not going to fare it well in the long run.

Naturally, these statements from Akio Toyoda are not entirely surprising. Toyota has been vocal about its desire to slow down the EV transition for years, and it has marketed misleading “self-charging electric cars” (hybrids) while discouraging people from buying true electric cars. The company, or at least its leadership, don’t believe in a battery-electric vehicle future. While much of the industry had pivoted and was starting to seriously pursue a battery-electric vehicle future, Toyota was hyping and introducing the Toyota Mirai, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle that is the epitome of impracticality, inefficiency, and a non-bright future. (Toyota sold 7 units of the Mirai in the United States in September, and 1,437 in the first 9 months of the year as a whole.)

There’s no doubt about it: Toyota is a giant automaker. In fact, it was the top selling automaker in the world in 2021, not just in the USA. It has influence and it’s not losing customers so quickly that panic can seem logical right now — even as it is a massive laggard in the EV transition that’s well underway globally. Akio Toyoda can convince himself that all of the talk of 100% electric vehicle sales by 2030 or 2035 or even 2040 is fanciful and will never come to pass. That talk has been going on for a decade and look at where Toyota stands today. However, the trends seem clear to me, the benefits of electric vehicles are clear, and the decision by several automakers to be fully electric by 2030 or 2035 are out in the open. A company could get away with dragging its feet for the past decade — there are no auto company bankruptcies that have ensued from slow development of EVs. But for the next decade? Can you be a laggard in the EV industry in the next decade and grow? Can you be a laggard in the EV industry in the next decade and survive? It seems that Toyota is intent on finding out, and Toyoda seems convinced that his company will do well to slow-walk this transition and bet on much more reliance on fossil fueled vehicles in the years to come.

All of this is not to say Toyota is doing nothing. The company recently increased its planned investment in a US EV battery factory from $1.3 billion to $3.8 billion. Furthermore, the company plans to sell 3.5 million fully electric vehicles a year by 2030. That’s a lot. It’s just that it’s not quite 35% of Toyota’s 2021 sales. That’s far away from the 100% requirement California has for 2035. Also, heck, it’s barely more than the percentages we’re seeing in China and Europe. Good luck, Toyota."

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/10/08/toyota-admits-it-just-cant-keep-up/?utm_source=pocket_mylist

[RV_]

Toyota — Is It Circling The Drain?

Excerpt:

"I believe that Toyota deserves a great deal of credit for its pioneering work with mild hybrids. But I also believe that it is time for Toyota to let go of its past success and the present delusion of hydrogen-powered vehicles and move into full BEV production. If not, then it may well be that Toyota is circling the drain. A recent Facebook conversation on this topic yielded many comments and stories. I will share the best here. One commentator put it this way: “It’s all about smart vision and the fastest to market and Toyota management has just tied its shoe laces together with its very late response.”

There is no doubt that Toyota has the size and the smarts to quickly catch up in the race for BEV market share, but does it have the vision? Past success and the promise of a hydrogen future can blur your vision. A cursory glance at the market share of Toyota’s conventional hybrids (HEVs) in mature markets shows that they are declining as fast as petrol and diesel-powered cars."

Source:

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/08/31/toyota-is-it-circling-the-drain/

 

[Dutch_12078]

Toyota as a corporation, is a long way from "circling the drain". Even if the automotive segment declined significantly, which is unlikely, they have many other areas to keep paying the bills. Between housing, boats, robots, forklifts, sewing machines, and several other non-automotive products, they'll likely be around for a very long time.

[RV_]

Dutch I'd agree. Except Mr Toyoda has had some erratic flip flopping in the last three or four years. The headline may be a bit over the top, but check out how Toyoda is doubling down on no change.

While saying they can't develop BEVs soon enough despite having a three or four year jump on Musk with their Prius Hybrids in production in 1999 I believe in Japan. Yet Musk did not even start with Tesla until 2003 from scratch. Here's another article about Toyoda's positions and happy dance.

He may be about to go down or up - I think we'll both see, in time and it will be clear in the next year or so. Fun to watch.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/02/toyota-ceo-akio-toyoda-electric-vehicles-happy-dance.html

 

Edited October 9, 2022 by RV_

[Dutch_12078]

7 hours ago, RV_ said:

Dutch I'd agree. Except Mr Toyoda has had some erratic flip flopping in the last three or four years. The headline may be a bit over the top, but check out how Toyoda is doubling down on no change.

While saying they can't develop BEVs soon enough despite having a three or four year jump on Musk with their Prius Hybrids in production in 1999 I believe in Japan. Yet Musk did not even start with Tesla until 2003 from scratch. Here's another article about Toyoda's positions and happy dance.

He may be about to go down or up - I think we'll both see, in time and it will be clear in the next year or so. Fun to watch.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/02/toyota-ceo-akio-toyoda-electric-vehicles-happy-dance.html

 

According to the article, Toyota will have 15 BEV models by 2025, and yes, they are hedging their bets with hybrid and fuel cell models as well. The $70 billion they're investing in EV's should keep them going for awhile. They're also investing $5.6 billion in expanding their EV battery production, with almost half of that going to their North Carolina battery plant expansion. I think it's fair to say "Circling the drain" is gross exaggeration. As you said, time will tell...

[Chalkie]

Quote

Looking globally, 11% of new vehicle sales are fully electric vehicles sales, and 15% have a plug.

Maybe it is just too early in the morning but could someone explain what this means? How can there be 11% fully electric vehicles and only 15% of them with plugs?

[Kirk W]

1 hour ago, Chalkie said:

How can there be 11% fully electric vehicles and only 15% of them with plugs?

Including hybrids, perhaps? 

[RV_]

11 hours ago, Chalkie said:

Maybe it is just too early in the morning but could someone explain what this means? How can there be 11% fully electric vehicles and only 15% of them with plugs?

Read the link you quoted.

Some hybrids have no plug but the gas motor runs it most of the time and after the battery runs out, no plug in charging so no plug. Plug in EVs are shortened to BEVs like Tesla with no electric engine onboard to charge or power the vehicle it runs on batteries only. PHEVs for Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles they run on batteries that are charged by plugging in. HEVs for Hybrids have no plug in charging just the fossil fueled motor to charge the batteries. There are exceptions and oddball vehicles but that is pretty much how I understand it.

"Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 60% in August 2022 compared to August 2021, reaching 847,000 units. This is the best result ever for an off-peak month (as in, not the final month of a quarter). So, expect not only that Q3 will be the best quarter ever for plugins, but also that September will provide the mother of all record months! I expect September will be the first time the world reaches one million plugin vehicle registrations in a month. With China (surely), the USA (likely), and Europe (maybe?) posting record months in September, expect the end of Q3 to be another time of celebration.

With a strong month in August, plugins represented 15% share of the overall auto market. Full electrics (BEVs) themselves reached 11% share of the market! And these numbers could have been even larger of the overall market had not started to recover last month. That, added to the fact that plugless hybrids (HEVs) posted their highest growth rate since last March (+6% YoY), confirms once again the significant correlation between the HEV and pure ICE (internal combustion engine) markets.

In August, BEVs (+66% YoY) grew faster than plugin hybrids (+47%), but if we exclude China from the plugin hybrid vehicle (PHEV) tally, we discover that PHEVs would be down 9% YoY. August would have been the sixth consecutive month of sales drops for the powertrain. So, excluding China, where PHEVs have evolved to 30–40+ kWh battery systems (working more as extended-range electric vehicles than classic PHEVs), we might also be passing the peak year for PHEVs.

Year to date, the plugin share grew to 13% (9.2% BEV). That’s all great, but the internet loves lists, so here you go: The top 20 electric car sales leaders!"

Edited October 10, 2022 by RV_

[Chalkie]

12 hours ago, RV_ said:

Read the link you quoted.

OK, well I guess in my mind anything that carries along a gasoline engine to either take over when the battery fails or to provide the charge for the battery is not really an electric vehicle. To include those in the count seems a little deceptive to me. What can I say?

[Kirk W]

7 minutes ago, Chalkie said:

OK, well I guess in my mind anything that carries along a gasoline engine to either take over when the battery fails or to provide the charge for the battery is not really an electric vehicle.

Deceptive or not, in our present circumstance I would definately be interested in a hybrid but not an electric only. 

[Chalkie]

3 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Deceptive or not, in our present circumstance I would definately be interested in a hybrid but not an electric only. 

I think I might find interest in a hybrid, my granddaughter has one although I think she does not drive it to maximize its advantages. I don't know about all plugin hybrids but I did look up a Jeep Wrangler I saw here in the RV park. I left me kind of scratching my head. It said it had a 22 mile range on electric only. 

[RV_]

Gary that is why reading the links is so important. PHEVs (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles) have larger battery packs than HEVs(Hybrid Electric Vehicles) Some of both have longer range than others. Some only go ten miles on batteries.

The idea is if you want better fuel mileage but no charging hassles then an HEV may suit. They can give from a bit to much better mpg. If you work and drive to work every day and your round trip is less than the range of a PHEV then you can go without fueling up indefinitely until you shop after work or use it for longer trips. Your mpg will be much better than without batteries.

So you need to be aware of your actual miles driven normally. Remember with a PHEV or HEV you can refuel anywhere and not have to wait 30 minutes while it charges.

Then decide if the cost of either type of hybrid is giving you a return for your money. Then go with the one that does what you want.

If you do not have access to a 50 amp or at the least 30 amp charger at home, or do not own or rent a home you can install a 220 outlet for overnight charging a couple times a month or once a week if you put a lot of miles on your car then you probably would prefer an HEV and just get better mpg.

We have decided to go all electric for everything. My charger charges at 30 miles range per hour. But since I never run it below 20% and do not charge above 80% now to keep my batteries at max efficiency/capacity for more years, and I don't drive it daily I only need charge about once or twice a month. I have an appointment at the VA for hearing aids in Denver later this month so when I am doing a trip I charge the night before to 90%. If it is longer than ~ 270 miles or a longer trip I charge to 100% and use Superchargers during the trip.

Here's my rough math. Our Subaru Forester gets 25 mpg ans to go the same miles as my Model Y takes 12 gallons of gas at today's price of ~3.50/gal costs $42 bucks. To charge my Tesla at home costs costs 13 bucks soon to be $14 for my Tesla to go 300 miles.

Here is an online calculator you can use for most any BEV, PHEV, and HEV, charging times and costs at home and on the road https://evadept.com/calc/tesla-model-y-charging-cost-calculator

Have your local utility charges for electric on hand to plug into the data.Just use the drop down menus to select the make and model. Mine is the Tesla Model Y 2020 AWD two motor Long Range battery pack if you want an example. I have the 240V • 50A NEMA 14-50 outlet wired into my 200 Amp 1 phase service panel. Plug your local $ price per kWh, and that is about what a charge for my car at your location would cost.

So first decide on the type (BEV, PHEV, or HEV) you want based on just saving some or a lot of money, the cost of the car over what you would normally buy, and which gives you the most perceived ROI.

Why do I say "perceived?" Simple. I get nowhere near my maximum range. See these cars do not peel rubber nor make loud ICE engine noises so I can, when safe, put the pedal to the metal from 0-50 in a 45mph zone for fun. Just like folks who lose traction peel rubber or have loud mufflers except I am not interested in noise pollution or showing off. I like performance driving safely. So just like gas vehicles if you rev the engines and drive with a lead foot you can shave a lot of mpg off. We had a fast little Subaru Baja with turbo and it never got more than 12 miles per gallon when I drove it and 20 when Lynda drove it. It was a toy I just wanted to try and we did for a year to bring here when we moved here after I sold my last Ram Diesel 2500 long bed. In town I have no room for a utility trailer so I wanted a truck for the once or the twenty times a year or more doing yard sales or picking up workbenches etc from online ads. My buddy has one and loves to accompany me. Thus my Rivian on order.

Depending on your driving habits this is especially true - YMMV!

My Tesla driven gently and for range is still faster than gas and I would get the full range give or take. Accident avoidance by accelerating becomes a real thing with Tesla BEVs. I cannot speak to the others I have not owned. The leaf I drove was about like our Forester power wise so not a performance BEV at that time and it had only 115 miles of range if IRC.

Some folks want an AC Cobra and spend millions for an original, others don't care and just want low operating and fueling charging costs, some just want the cheapest. Once a couple of years pass all of those can be Electric once the $25k BEVs are common with the new batteries and 600 miles range. (That Is real today but the factories and suppliers have to get going on them)

I hope that helps Gary.

Edited October 10, 2022 by RV_

[Kirk W]

6 hours ago, Chalkie said:

I don't know about all plugin hybrids but I did look up a Jeep Wrangler I saw here in the RV park.

I have a friend who has a 2019 Lincoln MKZ hybrid and the last that I knew he really likes it. He mentioned something I had not thought of in that they do better in town than on the highway because of dynamic braking recharging the battery so that the gas engine seldom if ever starts. 

[Chalkie]

16 hours ago, Kirk W said:

I have a friend who has a 2019 Lincoln MKZ hybrid and the last that I knew he really likes it. He mentioned something I had not thought of in that they do better in town than on the highway because of dynamic braking recharging the battery so that the gas engine seldom if ever starts. 

That is the feature I like about hybrids as for us that majority of miles put on our car are in just that - in town. It would work for my granddaughter too but having a lead foot rather offsets any gains. 😀

 

[RV_]

On 10/11/2022 at 8:02 AM, Chalkie said:

It would work for my granddaughter too but having a lead foot rather offsets any gains. 😀

That is the same with gas vehicles. Both Ice and EVs can lose 50% or more of their range per fillup or charging to full from lead footing it.

Towing drops the range drastically on both as well.

Edited October 13, 2022 by RV_