Is this the begining of difficulty for the RV Industry?

[Vladimir]

On 8/1/2022 at 8:16 AM, Kirk W said:

I searched via Google and could find nothing to indicate that auto loan defaults are increasing but most of what I did find was at least several months old. Would you share your source?

I believe I also saw a WSJ article on this issue.  The recession is only just starting. 

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/subprime-car-loan-defaults-rising/

https://www.automoblog.net/auto-loan-default-rates/

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/ford-car-loan-delinquencies

Edited August 3, 2022 by Vladimir

[Kirk W]

KBB   published 5/23/22

Quote

In March, 8.5% of subprime borrowers defaulted on their car loans, according to Equifax. That’s the second-highest total on record.

AutoBlog doesn't list a publication date

Quote

In 2019, before the pandemic began, Gen Z had a past-due rate of 1.75%. Today, past-due rates have reached as high as 2.21% among Gen Z car owners. Similarly, millennials now show increased past-due rates of 2.14%, compared with 1.66% before the pandemic.

Fox News  6/17/22

Quote

"We are seeing delinquencies start to increase," Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler told the Deutsche Bank 2022 Global Automotive Conference on Wednesday. "It's not yet a concern for us because, coming out of last year and through the first part of this year, they were very low. It seems like we're reverting back more towards the mean."

Fox is the most recent it would seem but none of them really indicate a major default problem yet. I am still trying to find anything recent about RV loans. 

[rickeieio]

22 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

That’s the second-highest total on record.

22 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

Fox is the most recent it would seem but none of them really indicate a major default problem yet.

Am I reading this differently?

[Kirk W]

1 hour ago, rickeieio said:

Am I reading this differently?

"It's not yet a concern for us because, coming out of last year and through the first part of this year, they were very low. It seems like we're reverting back more towards the mean."

[VC 23RSS]

3 hours ago, Kirk W said:

KBB   published 5/23/22

AutoBlog doesn't list a publication date

Fox News  6/17/22

Fox is the most recent it would seem but none of them really indicate a major default problem yet. I am still trying to find anything recent about RV loans. 

 

I found this site interesting.   Somewhat of an indicator of the industry's employment needs in and around Elkhart. 

 

https://m.facebook.com/groups/401523059992395/

[Kirk W]

Has anyone been RV shopping lately? We drive past several dealerships fairly frequently and it does seem that all of them are pretty well stocked, while the auto dealers continue to have very little to offer. 

[Chalkie]

2 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Has anyone been RV shopping lately? We drive past several dealerships fairly frequently and it does seem that all of them are pretty well stocked, while the auto dealers continue to have very little to offer. 

The RV industry is not effected by the chip shortage like the auto industry is, there simply are not the electronics onboard unless it is perhaps a motorhome. 

[Kirk W]

12 minutes ago, Chalkie said:

The RV industry is not effected by the chip shortage like the auto industry is, there simply are not the electronics onboard unless it is perhaps a motorhome. 

OK? But motorhomes clearly are yet they seem to be available too. I didn't intend to imply that chip shortages have anything to do with the RV supply, only wondered what others are seeing. 

[Chalkie]

5 hours ago, Kirk W said:

OK? But motorhomes clearly are yet they seem to be available too. I didn't intend to imply that chip shortages have anything to do with the RV supply, only wondered what others are seeing. 

Ahh, OK, the last time we drove by an RV dealership I saw far more towed RVs than motorized ones. The same could be said for what I see on Market Place and Craigslist around here.

[Dutch_12078]

1 hour ago, Chalkie said:

Ahh, OK, the last time we drove by an RV dealership I saw far more towed RVs than motorized ones. The same could be said for what I see on Market Place and Craigslist around here.

Towables have always out sold motorized by a large margin, so seeing that reflected in dealer stock levels isn't surprising.

[docj]

1 hour ago, Chalkie said:

Ahh, OK, the last time we drove by an RV dealership I saw far more towed RVs than motorized ones. The same could be said for what I see on Market Place and Craigslist around here.

According to 2021 RVIA data, motorhomes account for <10% of all RV sales.  Although MH's are a lot more costly than most towables, they account for only a smaller sliver from a numeric aspect.  https://www.rvia.org/historical-rv-data

[VC 23RSS]

Motorhome manufacturers depend on a chassis built by someone else.  Just because the new motorhomes don't all have 14" touchscreens and 360* camera systems does mean the chip shortages didn't affect them.  Engines, transmissions and body control systems all have semiconductors and the technology improves each year.  My sister's Transit based Class B was severely delayed because of the limited number of chassis available. 

 

When we looked for a 1/2 ton truck the old, outdated Tundra was still being produced last summer and fall at nearly the same rate as pre pandemic.  One reason is it was the last of that generation and Toyota had a good stock of the required chips.  It's said that the Japan earthquake and resulting tsunami of 2011 severely hobbled Toyota due to their suppliers being damaged  and their  business model of not stocking material.  Rather they depended on a system where as soon as a part was produced it was shipped and installed at the factory within days or weeks.   Toyota changed that way of thinking to revert back to the stockpiling in warehouses.  Many other manufacturers didn't change.  That's one reason the 2021 Tundra was so outdated tech wise.  Which was perfectly fine with me.  The new Gen 3 Tundra is delayed nearly as much as Ford, GM and Ram.  

 

https://digital.hbs.edu/platform-rctom/submission/the-last-dance-of-just-in-time/

Edited August 4, 2022 by VC 23RSS
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[Vladimir]

On 8/3/2022 at 2:12 PM, Kirk W said:

Fox is the most recent it would seem but none of them really indicate a major default problem yet. I am still trying to find anything recent about RV loans. 

Economic data is always at least a month behind.  Usually 45 days before any numbers are released.

Lots of economic data is on a quarter basis, which means FOUR months before the data is released.

Add to that the days before a journalist decides this is a story and the newspaper decides to publish it and your out quite a ways on the information.

I remember in 2008 wondering how bad the upcoming recession. 

I went fishing with a friend in the newspaper business and he mentioned that their business was "froze".  Nobody was buying newspaper ads. 

That meant a real bad recession.  He didn't have a background in economics, he didn't know what it meant nationwide.

I was retired, and had no contacts in the business world, except for this one friend.  I was waiting on "data" just like everyone else. 

Yeah, it was way to late when I finally got the "official" numbers.

It really depends on what you want to use the information.  If it is for investment purposes, too late.  If it is just to see WHAT happened, that is fine. 

In that case, wait another two months.

[Ray,IN]

VC that Japanese business model was taught to them by representatives from U.S.A. businessmen after WWII during the recovery and rebuilding process. Today that business model is known as "Just in time delivery", it's purpose is to eliminate a company requirement of warehousing a large inventory. Satellite bushiness are created nearby to produce parts and deliver them to the main company "just in time" to prevent the assembly line from running out of said parts.

That business model works great if all the satellite business do not falter in their production and deliver schedule, if just one company stalls, it shuts down the entire company network of suppliers and main production.

The running joke is, just in time is the same thing as almost too late.

[packnrat]

all i know is the rv prices are a bit high for my wallet. (montana high country), sure had most everything i wanted, 400 w solar, gen ready, etc. but dealer not wanting to drop the price. i said not in the cards today. called me a month latter had dropped the price. wants to move the unit. but told him, not a good time for me to buy. plus it is listed for sale in a couple other states for 10's of thousands less. yes a new 2022, not sure if i want to mess with cross state tax problems. (i live in cal).

and now i have read that hud is sticking there fingers in this. changing the rules. and some city's/states are changing the laws and wording on what "camping" is. i need to find out more on this.

Edited August 9, 2022 by packnrat

[Kirk W]

13 hours ago, packnrat said:

and now i have read that hud is sticking there fingers in this. changing the rules.

Mind sharing what you referr to on this one? I must have missed the reports on it. 

[Chalkie]

2 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Mind sharing what you referr to on this one? I must have missed the reports on it. 

This may be a reference to a rumor that HUD might start regulating RVs.

[Dutch_12078]

39 minutes ago, Chalkie said:

This may be a reference to a rumor that HUD might start regulating RVs.

Old news (article dated Nov 27, 2018) and already settled between HUD and the RVIA.

[Chalkie]

1 hour ago, Dutch_12078 said:

Old news (article dated Nov 27, 2018) and already settled between HUD and the RVIA.

Sometimes rumors die hard.

[Kirk W]

57 minutes ago, Chalkie said:

Sometimes rumors die hard.

Conspiracy theories are like that too. 

[RV_]

18 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

Conspiracy theories are like that too. 

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