Are my investments safe?

[Kirk W]

Economic Forecast 2022 And Beyond: Good Now, Scary Later

Is there anyone who really knows? Will you stay the course with your investments or try to find a safe haven?

JP Morgan cuts global oil demand outlook for 2022 by 1 million bpd

Edited May 6, 2022 by Kirk W

[RV_]

Your first article is exactly two months old (early March 2022) and his basic premise is wrong as of today. The Forbes article you linked to says:

"The best working assumption for an economic forecast is that Covid has less impact, thanks to vaccinations and past infections. Assume no more lockdowns and people will dine out, travel and go to concerts. But keep your fingers crossed, as new variants are quite possible."

Bold and italics added by me.

That is no longer the best working assumption - OBE.

Because current news this week is that:

"China has introduced lockdown measures in its two biggest cities, Beijing and Shanghai -- the twin engines that power much of the nation's economy -- in an uncompromising bid to stamp out COVID-19 outbreaks.

Shanghai is at the centre of the latest outbreak, reporting upwards of 15,000 new cases a day. Authorities have responded with a city-wide lockdown that has lasted weeks, confining nearly all 25 million residents of the once-bustling financial hub to their homes or neighbourhoods.

Authorities are now enforcing full or partial lockdowns in at least 27 cities across the country, with these restrictions affecting up to 180 million people, according to CNN's calculations.

Here's what you need to know about the COVID situation in China.

WHERE ARE THE LOCKDOWNS AND RESTRICTIONS?

Cases in China began rising in March, soon spiraling into the worst flare-up the country has seen since the initial outbreak in Wuhan in early 2020.

WHAT HAS BEEN THE ECONOMIC COST?

The lockdowns and restrictions have dealt a massive blow to activity -- particularly in economically important cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Unemployment hit a 21-month high in March. Many businesses have been forced to suspend operations in several locations, including automakers Volkswagen and Tesla and iPhone assembler Pegatron. The Chinese currency, the yuan, weakened rapidly this week, plunging to the lowest level since November 2020."

Source from the last week, just seven weeks after Forbes said it mayu slow down while hedging bets and admitting variants may change that: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/180m-people-impacted-by-china-covid-19-lockdowns-what-you-need-to-know-1.5881379?msclkid=78d0d6a9cda011eca28920222a281b40

The oil article also ignored the current COVID rise and predicted recovery of oil demand when in fact it looks like we are in for a winter of our discontent.

Whether your investments are safe depends on what you are invested in and how.

Cheers!

 

Edited May 7, 2022 by RV_

[Randyretired]

As RV said it depends on what your investments are.  The big thing I believe is if you have sound investments selling now or anytime the market is down is a form of trying to time the market.  History shows that more often than not that isn't the best approach. Market investments for most of us nonexperts should be a long term commitment to maximize returns.  Some even say market investments should have a 10 year horizon.   The problem is with inflation as it is most other investments except maybe  "I Bonds" means you will have less buying power as time marches on.  It seems our choice is guaranteed loss or a chance of a gain.  I am diversified in index funds and I am in for the long haul.  Come what may. On the side I often gamble on some single stocks with a small portion of my investments.   Kind of play money.  I have sold most of those with the way things are looking.  The market nearly always tends to over react and short term at least I expect some ruff times.  My market timing hasn't been real exciting and those stocks have been higher risk.  Bottom line I don't believe anyone can consistently call the market short term but over time the market has always made more than it lost.  

Edited May 7, 2022 by Randyretired

[Kirk W]

9 hours ago, Randyretired said:

Bottom line I don't believe anyone can consistently call the market short term but over time the market has always made more than it lost.  

I'd certainly agree with that statement. At this point I have made little by way of changes based on recent events, but with the pace of changes in world events, I doubt that anyone really knows what comes next. What got me to thinking about this was a conversation with a friend who is an avowed prepper, which I doubt many of us are.

[rickeieio]

Don't sweat the short term swings.  Look at the long term.  The S&P trend over the last 40 years looks pretty good, in spite of some bumps in the road.  When the market dips, everything is on sale.

That said, I'm holding off putting more in my Vanguard acc't and buying real estate (farm land) with a 4% ROI.  I will be able to live off my rent income if need be.

[RangeMaggotBob]

How are we supposed to stay the course?!? That works if you're working for a living. But we've "stayed the course" for years, lost and gained, and were fine. We're retired now and live off our investments. Or used to. Lost 16K just last quarter. If we stayed the course, our piddly little pension would be gone in a VERY short time. So- what are we supposed to do?!? Only one answer that I can see. Vote. For the right people.

Edited May 7, 2022 by RangeMaggotBob

[justRich]

One can stay the course provided that they have a large enough financial cushion.  Living far below one's means or living on the edge are two different situations.  

"No matter how bad things are, they could always get worse." - Kirk Douglas
"Things are never so bad they can't be made worse." - Humphrey Bogart

Events outside our control happen and they are usually made worse by politicians.  The Fed is tightening money - exactly the same thing as the Fed did in 1929.  
Stay the course if you've got the cushion.  Look for a job otherwise.

 

[2gypsies]

At our late age we're not playing around with the market.  We've always done well in the past with our way of investing and have seen many ups and downs over our lifetime.  No need to change now.  We have sound, non-volatile investments and we're good until our end.