Gas Cars Are Declining Significantly & Full Electrics Rising In USA

[RandyA]

33 minutes ago, Barbaraok said:

Randy, are you saying that there are no decent electrical engineers in the Department of Energy?   

Why do you assume that everything will happen overnight.  It will takes decades, but. WE  HAVE TO START!   Why is that such a difficult concept.  And if we don’t address human infrastructure the who is going to do all of the jobs of the future?  
 

I will admit, I just don’t understand that lack of imagination and willingness to see what can happen as we move forward?  Good thing that there have been generations willing to go out into the unknown and try new things or humans would never have gotten out of the caves!

Boy, did you ever miss the mark for what I wrote.  The Department of Energy and the Green New Deal are two different things.  I never mentioned the Department of Energy, which, by the way, doesn't have a plan either.  Yea, it will happen but so does a dump cake.  Trying to keep my comments non-political.  There is much more I can add - but won't on this thread.   We HAVE started and yes it will not happen overnight.  Strange you have yet to address where all the electrical energy needed will come from. I hope your imagination works.  And yes, I would like to own a Tesla model X - it would be fun with awesome acceleration and I could gloat to my cohorts about owing one, but it would not even come close to my current vehicle needs.

[GlennWest]

18 minutes ago, RV_ said:

The topic is that EV acceptance and sales have begun to match the rest of the world.

If any of you would, as I do, have an interest then by all means start a thread about how the energy to power EVs just can't be done. I would be very interested in the research.

It is clear that Tesla and what some perceive as green are the real naysayer issues.

You see reality as of now is that EVs ARE the future.

So please feel free to start a thread. The title might be how ignoring basic standards like Texas did, and not hardening their gas and electric production, as they said they would in 2011 after that big freeze/blackout/gas production halt, resulted in the deaths of a lot of Texans (one would be too many,) and blackouts as they fail to act, or act on very bad info that tells them it is safe to do nothing.

You see this is an Investment forum and folks believing yesterday's news in auto industry sales and tech, and are invested in current big three and import carmaker stocks, may want the data for their own portfolio decisions sooner than later.

Or not.

This thread is about how the EV sales and market shares in the US are rising fast. And how Fossil Fueled cars are declining in both sales and technology.

GM using LG to design and build the Bolt using their batteries now has the $1.8 billion dollar recall of all those battery packs. It takes a year or three to gear up design and production. So I became concerned when I saw all that battery capacity from LG that had to be designed a year or more ago, had been increased to build hundreds of thousands of Mustang EVs . . . all batteries for it made by LG.

So investors in car and truck makers and associated parts and battery suppliers success rates, and fails.  Tesla, has delivered now for 13 years since delivery of the first roadster in 2008 when the big three went bankrupt, or in Ford's case avoided only because of $30 billion or so in federal loan guarantees, and a ATVM DOE loan for $5 Billion.  And the TARP bailouts. Both signed into law in 2008 months before the elections.

So how about posting solutions to the problems you see. Some links and research into things Like Tesla applying for and likely getting approved, to become an electricity supplier in Texas.

I am an investor in the car and truck EV industry and may expand to Xping and/or Nio. Or buy more Tesla and post my reasons

Or not. I am all for solutions. Bring those on.

Or not.

Did you read the link about the hydrogen combustible engine developed? 

[RV_]

5 minutes ago, RandyA said:

The Department of Energy and the Green New Deal are two different things.  I never mentioned the Department of Energy, which, by the way, doesn't have a plan either.  Yea, it will happen but so does a dump cake.  Trying to keep my comments non-political.  There is much more I can add - but won't on this thread. 

No Randy YOU have failed to address where the energy will come from. This topic is the decline of fossil fuel car sales and concurrent rise in EV sales.

American new car buyers now choosing electric vehicles today, and the seemingly sudden decline of fossil fuel sales, is a, as you said different thing than the topic of increasing America's energy production and how.

Increase and declines in sales of EV and Fossil fueled vehicles reflecting the choices of regular American consumers who are buying new vehicles now has nothing to do with politics so please stop mentioning it off topic here.

So which part of the actual article and the charts/data I posted and the many more in the article I linked to do you disagree with? Did you read the article in full at the link and see the source of the data at the bottom of the charts?

 

[RV_]

1 minute ago, GlennWest said:

Did you read the link about the hydrogen combustible engine developed? 

Not the topic. "Gas Cars Are Declining Significantly & Full Electrics Rising In USA"

 

What are your thoughts as an investor and how the news bodes for manufacturers who have not been able to get their EV sales in the top five?  Start a thread I'll read it and participate on topic. Or off after it dies.

[ms60ocb]

9 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

Why is anyone driving 250-400 miles for a physician's appointment when it is 0°F?  Where are you that you have to drive that far?

We had a 2 year old daughter with serious hearing lost but no one could get a accurate hearing test. When she was three, we were referred to a well know audiologist in Denver.  Mrs Downs got her into two hearing aids with in a year but a lot a drives from SW Colo.

 

4 hours ago, Jaydrvr said:

The point is not remotely about driving 400 miles to visit a physician in any weather, it's the more fundamental question about freedom of movement as needed or desired.

Yes on the as needed.

Energy can not be created but converted.  I can figure how many BTU of Natural Gas to get One KWH of electric to your home but what is the rate of use in 4-5 passenger EV at 60 MPH? (Kilo-watts per hour)

Clay 33 years full time in Electric Utilities

[noteven]

The highly efficient and functional public transit in most metros is brought to you by your money being spent by guvvermint. 

It's a wonder we even need cars after all these years, let alone guvvermint sanctioned electric ones.

 

[Jim & Alice]

5 hours ago, RandyA said:

.....

As a retired Electrical Engineer I am of the opinion we are doing what my ancestors called  "Putting the cart before the horse."  Or as some might say today, "Read, Shoot, Aim." 

.....

Thanks for a good, "Big Picture" perspective, Randy.   Much to think about.

[Vladimir]

2 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Part of that stems from a small fire problem in CA. A bit part of the CA grid is shut down because of those fires. They do need more capacity, but the fires have made it much worse. 

California imports ONE-THIRD of its electricity. 

Currently the impact on the fires is negligible.  California state government has mismanaged its electrical system for decades.  The incompetence is stunning.

Here is the minute by minute grid operations in California:

http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.aspx

And since California is dependent on adjacent states for its electricity here is the Northwest Grid and its operations:

https://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/baltwg3.aspx

Check out that amount of electricity being sent to California on the inter-tie.

Somewhere there is a similar web site for the southwest and its contribution to California electrical demands, but I haven't searched it out.

Back in the early 1990's the Forest Service got sued by the Earth Justice League (Sierra Club) and I got to learn a LOT about the BPA grid in the northwest.  Tried to keep current, but when it is no longer your job to keep up with the grid I probably am missing some changes in the grid operation.

I own a solar house and think solar/wind is frankly a dead end for generating electricity, except for the space station and off-grid homes.

On a per acre basis both wind and solar are environmental disasters!!! 

BUT California persists and it could actually make it work if they pave Paradise with solar panels (sorry, Joni Mitchell) AND build lots, and lots and lots of natural gas generating plants to make up for the cloudy and still days.

Watch the two web sites for demand and generation by source for a couple of months.  

It will be an education.

 

 

[Barbaraok]

Randy,  so people in different places do have electrical engineers who are looking at all the different ways of generating electricity, correct?    But you feel that none of them will come up with any new technologies and so we must continue to depend upon petroleum until every last drop is pulled from the earth?   BTW, crude oil should be saved for feedstock for carbon-based chemicals.  Much, much to valuable to be just burning it in engines hauling stuff down the road.    Again, change is coming and now of us can imagine just what it will be, but it is better to encourage change and progress than to stay stuck in old technologies.  Any organism that does not evolve as it's environment changes dies.  

[Ray,IN]

I'm all for electric vehicles, I'm also for investing in the infrastructure to support them. I really like the Ford Lightening pickups with their 400 mile range. The  contractor version starts at $39,000 but with a 300 mile range. Ford has filed a patent on regenerative charging while towing behind a MH or coasting downhill.

I'm within 15 miles of a mid-sized liberal college town with over 70,000 residents, they still don't have over 3 charging docks but they do have over 100 miles of bicycle trails.

[Kirk W]

8 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

 Again, change is coming and now of us can imagine just what it will be, but it is better to encourage change and progress than to stay stuck in old technologies.  Any organism that does not evolve as it's environment changes dies.  

I have long observed that the older we get the more of us become reluctant to change and I must admit that I even see some of that reluctance in myself, as compared to what I was 20 or more years ago. In reading this thread, I can't help wondering if it doesn't demonstrate the fact that the average age of the contributors is well above the median age for our country? I suspect that the mix of remarks would be very different if this were on the X-scapers side of the community. 

Quote

Millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, are more open to considering the purchase of an electric vehicle, particularly in comparison with Baby Boomer and older adults. Similarly, other findings in the same survey showed that younger generations are more receptive to the idea of phasing out gasoline-powered vehicles. Majorities of Gen Z (56%) and Millennial (57%) adults favor phasing out production of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035, compared with lower shares of Gen X (45%) and Baby Boomer and older (38%) Americans.

Electric vehicles get mixed reception from American consumers

Pew Research Center, June 2, 2021

Edited September 1, 2021 by Kirk W

[GlennWest]

Too Kirk. We know how old we are and how slow changes come. 

[RandyA]

17 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

Randy,  so people in different places do have electrical engineers who are looking at all the different ways of generating electricity, correct?    But you feel that none of them will come up with any new technologies and so we must continue to depend upon petroleum until every last drop is pulled from the earth?   BTW, crude oil should be saved for feedstock for carbon-based chemicals.  Much, much to valuable to be just burning it in engines hauling stuff down the road.    Again, change is coming and now of us can imagine just what it will be, but it is better to encourage change and progress than to stay stuck in old technologies.  Any organism that does not evolve as it's environment changes dies.  

No, no no.  With all personal  respect for your vision and no flames or seemingly nasty retorts from me - you are still a long way from the knowledge base I have acquired concerning electricity and and the energy sources needed to produce it.  I wasn't kidding about advancing the technology to capture a lightning bolt as an electrical energy source.  It is so easy to accept the advertising hype about how environmentally sane it would be to quit using gasoline and diesel fuel in our automobiles and trucks, put up a few solar panels and just plug in.  It is not as easy as putting in more charging stations unless we have the power to hook them up.  Never-the-less, I admire your vision.  Yes, we have made tremendous progress over the past 4 decades and we will continue to do so - political agendas aside.  I well remember how angry my (then - now gone) wife became in the late '70's when I frivolously spent part of my hard earned income on a microwave oven and a kit to build an Ohio Scientific OS1 microcomputer.  By the time I bought a Motorola bag cell phone she was still ranting and raving about how I wasted money and time on "fad" items that would never do anything.  I am so glad I did not fall victim to that narrow way of thinking.  Those frivolous actions quickly paid back many times their original cost as it put me way ahead of the curve professionally.  I do believe electric automobiles will someday be common place and we will develop the methods to convert alternate forms of energy into the needed electricity to recharge the batteries in electric automobiles.  It is a shame that Honda's project to to directly convert hydrogen into electricity was restricted to a few vehicles in California and never allowed to develop nationally.  Politics again got in the way.  CO2 from burning fossil fuels has undoubtedly impacted global warming and must be reigned back if mankind and many animals are to survive.  But electric cars will not solve that problem unless dependable clean sources of energy are used at the generating end and we have a reliable method of delivering that energy.  So, what comes first?  The chicken or the egg?  I personally believe it should be the Chicken (my analogy).

Keep your imagination alive, but please do not overlook the realities and cost of getting there.  I foresee something akin to the long gas lines after the Arab oil embargo of '73-'74 as communities via for the additional electrical energy that will be needed for a rapid influx of electric vehicles.  That is, unless we can rapidly expand our source of electrical energy and methods of delivering it to the needed point of use.  We just aren't there yet and have no real plan on how it will be accomplished. 🤕  Enough said - I'm bowing out of this discussion.

[Barbaraok]

Yes, Randy I know that my MS in Chem Engineering doesn't compare to what Electrical Engineers know and my years spent running EH&S departments  in universities across the country (plus being married to a Ph.D. Biochemist)  mean that I haven't the foggiest idea about research, etc.  so I'm just dreaming of a future where things change.  

[noteven]

Saying there is no place for electric powered vehicles is like saying you want to go back to Briggs & Stratton engine powered clothes washing machines on the back porch. 

Politicians are setting goals for EV vehicle fleet %'s by such and such a year.  What is the plan to develop infrastructure to convert other energy into electrical energy to power the EV fleet by such and such a year? I wondered. 

So I went to the EIA website and read:

"In 2020, Americans used about 123 billion gallons of motor gasoline—or about 337 million gallons per day—and about 166 million gallons of aviation gasoline. Gasoline is one of the major fuels consumed in the United States and is the main product that U.S. oil refineries produce. Most of the motor gasoline sold for use in vehicles in the United States is about 10% fuel ethanol by volume."

Here is where I need help:

Let's say a light vehicle gasoline engine is 30% efficient - 30% of the energy in a gallon of gas is used for motive power, 70% being lost to heat, what does that represent in terms of electricity needed to power the same fleet of vehicles if they are electric? 

In other words, how many megawatts of electricity replaces the energy in 36,900,000,000 (30% of 123 billion) gallons of gasoline?  

What is the plan to generate and distribute it?

 

[Big Rick]

On 8/31/2021 at 7:40 PM, Barbaraok said:

Randy, are you saying that there are no decent electrical engineers in the Department of Energy?   

Why do you assume that everything will happen overnight.  It will takes decades, but. WE  HAVE TO START!   Why is that such a difficult concept.  And if we don’t address human infrastructure the who is going to do all of the jobs of the future?  
 

I will admit, I just don’t understand that lack of imagination and willingness to see what can happen as we move forward?  Good thing that there have been generations willing to go out into the unknown and try new things or humans would never have gotten out of the caves!

Exactly why “ do we have to start”

let them figure things out and let the market decide! Mandating electric vehicles is not the way to “start”

[Barbaraok]

19 minutes ago, Big Rick said:

Exactly why “ do we have to start”

let them figure things out and let the market decide! Mandating electric vehicles is not the way to “start”

Isn’t that what the market is doing?  And any BIG change gets a kick start when government provides the. Infrastructure for it to build on.  Internet is the result of research by military DARPA,  we navigate across the world due to military development of global positioning satellites.   No one is building new coal fired plants.  Even big oil is starting to look at alternative energy sources and how they can get involved and make money.  Things are going to change.  

[GlennWest]

I don't understand all the talk about evs. The power grid will not support them. There is just not enough unused land for solar panels. Wind mills can only be used in windy areas. Water based needs flowing water. So we back to fossil fuel for electricity. So what are we benefitings. Building plants excite me more than any car ever could.

Edited September 2, 2021 by GlennWest

[Barbaraok]

Glenn,  there isn't enough power TODAY to support all that is talked about 20-30 years from now.   THAT'S OK.   More will be developed.   You really need to look at the wind requirement for turbines.  You don't have to have gale force winds, in fact when the winds get too high they go into a lock down mode.  We're in California right now.  More and more and more shopping areas are putting in covered parking lots, with the covers containing solar panels to generate power.  Even on light to medium cloudy days they put out energy.  And because of the drought, there are lots of days of sunshine in the west anymore in all sorts of places.    

I love seeing a red light ahead and start my coast into the stop, watching the big battery get charged beause of the adaptive charging system Ford has for the hybrids.  Which is why during the winter we only need to fill up the fuel tank every other month - - the Phoenix area is flat so you can see stop lights a long way off and slow (and charge) without every have to come to a complete shop, the light is green again by the time I get there.    Driving like a little old lady works well for hybrids. Coming down a hill, even without touching the brakes, she is charging up that battery!  Big battery full when we reach the bottom.  

And who knows what other new ideas are just taking shape in the minds of creative people all over the world.   

[GlennWest]

Oh, I all for solar. But it is low on power on cloudy or raining days. So need wind or power plant to make up difference. Just don't see the difference without fossil fuels. I know huge batteries can support solar but mining that much lithium. That not environment friendly. Just don't see it with no fossil fuels with current technology. Know we eventually will come up with better batteries but that is coming slowly

Edited September 2, 2021 by GlennWest

[TXiceman]

It is crazy to go out and get an all electric car today.  Most of the electricity is being generated with fossil fuel plants and there are not nearly enough charging stations to make them practical for nothing more than a commuter golf cart.  We need to start pushing to more renewable energy sources, but this will take time.  Energy can come form wind, solar, nuclear, and plant based fuels.  But in the mean time we need to get the renewable energy sources in place to help phase down the dependence fossil fuels.

In my career as a mechanical engineer, I worked on projects for energy reduction or reclaiming and bio-fuels.  We have a way to go.  I offered systems with a reduced energy input, but with a higher initial cost.  Too often a bean-counter would nix the design as he had to have a much shorter payout period for his ROI.  Many as short as 3 years.

I for one will hold off putting money into an electric car until at least 1/2 for the electricity is from renewable energy sources.

Ken

[Lou Schneider]

California is building wood burning power plants to get rid of the scrags remaining after a big wildfire.  One is going in down  street from my sister's house to handle the remains of a fire that burned through an adjacent area 10 years ago.  This one is fairly modular, I'll let you know how it impacts their environment (noise and smells) after it's up and running later this year.

Oh, and it's not being called a wood burning power plant.   It still uses wood to boil water into steam to power a turbine generator, but Biomass is the preferred term.

[GlennWest]

7 minutes ago, Lou Schneider said:

California is building wood burning power plants to get rid of the scrags remaining after a big wildfire.  One is going in down  street from my sister's house to handle the remains of a fire that burned through an adjacent area 10 years ago.  This one is fairly modular, I'll let you know how it impacts their environment (noise and smells) after it's up and running later this year.

Oh, and it's not being called a wood burning power plant.   It still uses wood to boil water into steam to power a turbine generator, but Biomass is the preferred term.

And with the amount of fires they have might have enough fuel for to sustain it. That is an area situation though.

[Lou Schneider]

This plant is a prototype that is just now becoming operational 16 years after first being proposed in 2005.  It is on the site of a timber mill that closed down in 1995.

https://cvnmtc.com/north-fork-bioenergy-plant/

https://sierranewsonline.com/2020-make-or-break-year-for-north-fork-biomass-project/

16 years to receive approval to add a paltry 2 MW to the CA power grid from an existing zoned industrial site using the same raw materials as the original business.  Yeah, CA's power grid should be ready for all those electric cars any day now.

Edited September 2, 2021 by Lou Schneider

[docj]

25 minutes ago, Lou Schneider said:

California is building wood burning power plants to get rid of the scrags remaining after a big wildfire.  One is going in down  street from my sister's house to handle the remains of a fire that burned through an adjacent area 10 years ago.  This one is fairly modular, I'll let you know how it impacts their environment (noise and smells) after it's up and running later this year.

Oh, and it's not being called a wood burning power plant.   It still uses wood to boil water into steam to power a turbine generator, but Biomass is the preferred term.

But it's still contributing to the CO2 problem, so I can't get excited about it.  EV's powered by electricity that contributes to the overall problem don't buy society that much of a benefit.  JMO