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Gas Cars Are Declining Significantly & Full Electrics Rising In USA


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This article has lots of good statistics and it looks like the US consumers are waking up. Germany, land of the Mercedes, Porsche, BMW, VW group, have about 28% EVs last I saw but the US with all the anti Tesla hype and nonsense was only at around or less than 2%.

So in addition to the announcement Tesla is about to be a power company in Texas, and that Gigafactory Texas and BBerlin are weeks away from producing Cyber trucks after they are in full production making Model 3 and Model Y cars, the EV outlook in the US is changing faster suddenly. This article has good charts and info for investors in American auto makers.

Excerpt:

"We may have experienced peak fossil car sales in the USA, and the peak year wasn’t even very recently. It appears that the year that will go down in history as the peak year for fossil-powered light-duty vehicle sales was 2016. Ironically, that’s also the year the Tesla Model 3 was unveiled.

Fully-electric vehicle sales aren’t anywhere close to peaking, of course. A record number of nearly 250,000 full-electric vehicles were sold in the States in 2020, and 2021 is likely to do better.

US gas car sales peak

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 39, April 2021, Table 6.2. Graph courtesy of US Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy.

In 2016, the US saw a record 17,500,719 new auto sales. That was still a year with a rather small percentage of sales coming from full-electric car sales, which didn’t start really hopping until 2018. After 4 years of auto sales declines, in 2020, 14,697,837 new passenger autos were sold across the nation. Naturally, sales were hit by the pandemic (and the chip shortage), which made 2020 an especially low year for auto sales, but EV sales just kept growing nonetheless (see the yellow bars in the chart above). It’s unlikely that gas-car sales will ever rebound and get to their 2016 record height.

Pure EV sales in the country went up from 1.4% of the light-duty vehicles market in 2019 to 1.7% in 2020. This is still dramatically lower than what we’re seeing in Europe and China (more than 7% market share each in 2021 — 7.6% in Europe and 9.4% in China).

Interestingly, plugin hybrids saw their sales decline from a possible peak in 2018 (0.7% share of the market). Removing plugin hybrid vehicles and even conventional hybrids, the sales total was just 12.7 million in 2020, almost 3 million sales lower than the 15.3 million of 2019.

As I reported recently, one of our writers, Maarten Vinkhuyzen, laid out a couple of years ago how a big tech transition isn’t just a smooth and orderly line, that the Osborne effect comes into play. It’s not a perfect representation, but look at the similarities in the graph above and the graph below. Conventional auto sales are collapsing faster than electric sales are growing.

Osborne-Effect-Auto-Industry.png

Graph by Maarten Vinkhuyzen, CleanTechnica

It’s long past time for both corporations and individuals to set 100% electric vehicle goals. We are far from that target, but you have to start somewhere. It was not that long ago that Europe and China were down at 1.7% full electric vehicle market share. It doesn’t have to be long until the US EV market reaches 10% market share."

More and related hotlinks in the article here:

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/28/gas-cars-are-declining-significantly-full-electrics-rising-in-usa/

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This just in too:

The Waiting List to Own a Tesla is Growing

Tesla’s infamous waiting lists are back. For most models, if you order today, you may be lucky to see your new Tesla this year.

 

Tesla is currently predicting a wait of four to six weeks for the Performance Model 3, and five to six weeks for the Performance Model X. For other models, estimated delivery times can be as far out as April 2022. Presumably, as Tesla and other automakers do when they have supply constraints, the company is putting its highest-margin variants at the head of the production schedule.

Waiting lists have been a feature of the company’s sales process for much of its history. When production of Model S began in mid-2012, Tesla had some 10,000 advance reservations, and it didn’t manage to crank the assembly line up to full speed until January 2013, at which time it triumphantly announced that the waiting time for a Model S had been cut to “only” four to six months.

Having more orders than you can fill may sound like a good problem to have, but in fact, it’s caused the demise of many a young company. Fortunately, Tesla eventually made it through this “Valley of Death,” and later navigated “Production Hell” with Model 3.

Delivery delays are no longer an existential threat for Tesla, but they certainly aren’t good news—later delivery means later payment, and a certain number of impatient buyers are going to give up, meaning no payment at all."

More in the article here:

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/28/the-waiting-list-to-own-a-tesla-is-growing/

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, GlennWest said:

Those of us comuting to jobs sometimes 100 or so miles one way, how we going to do this with evs. We have no changing sites on job parking lots. 

You don't have change over today, but it is coming.  More and more sites will have charging stations, more and more people will be telecommuting in the future, so long commutes won't be necessary and more and more jobs requiring a lot of physical exertion, etc., will be done by robots, a lot of them remotely controlled from locations miles away.     

You might not live to see the complete change over, but it is coming.  Why does that terrify everyone?   Look what the internal engine did for the future, why not see the coming change doing the same thing - opening up opportunities no one could imagine. 

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Glenn, what would you have been saying in 1890 when people started talking about the coming of cars - waxing on and on about we can never replace the horse, etc?   We are on the downhill side of petroleum reserves, it will all end someday no matter what we do.   Yes, there will be some pollution, but then the planet has never been "pristine" - there are all sorts of things going on, one just hopes nothing gets out of control so much that human existence ceases.   The planet - until the sun goes super nova, she will be fine - and then she will be back to star dust from whence she was formed.

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Quote

1876: “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.” — William Orton, President of Western Union.

Quote

1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty — a fad.” — President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.

Quote

1946: “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” — Darryl Zanuck, film producer, co-founder of 20th Century Fox.

Quote

1959: “The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most.” IBM told the eventual founders of Xerox.

Quote

1992: “The idea of a personal communicator in every pocket is a “pipe dream driven by greed.” — Andy Grove, then CEO of Intel.

Electric Cars Are Coming And If You Don’t Like It, Tough

Forbes Magazine, May 2021

Edited by Kirk W
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I believe in Electric vehicles but I think they are like the CB radio they have a place. Hybrid, which includes Plug-in Hybrid, are here to stay and the future.  I Can't imagine getting off work on a Thursday afternoon and driving 250-400 miles for a Doctors appointment when the temperatures are below zero F in all Electric vehicle.

I fully agree the combustion engine of today is not the combustion engine we had 70 years ago and will not be the same in future Hybrid. 

Clay

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Oh I can see hybirds. Just not evs. In a perfect world where everyone works 30 miles from home, grocery store around the corner but construction workers go to the job wherever it is being built. And power plants pollute. Just trading one evil for another.

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1 hour ago, ms60ocb said:

I believe in Electric vehicles but I think they are like the CB radio they have a place. Hybrid, which includes Plug-in Hybrid, are here to stay and the future.  I Can't imagine getting off work on a Thursday afternoon and driving 250-400 miles for a Doctors appointment when the temperatures are below zero F in all Electric vehicle.

I fully agree the combustion engine of today is not the combustion engine we had 70 years ago and will not be the same in future Hybrid. 

Clay

Why is anyone driving 250-400 miles for a physician's appointment when it is 0°F?  Where are you that you have to drive that far?

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1 hour ago, noteven said:

While battery electric propulsion is suitable for a lot of light vehicle transport, work is going on around the challenge of reducing emissions in heavy vehicles and machines that are used in high hours per day work using mature piston engine technology.

A visit to JCB's engine innovation lab

good video. Makes a lot of sense. 

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1 hour ago, Barbaraok said:

 Luddites always are with us protesting the horrors of progress and change.

Predicting the future has always been pretty risky as there have been those who predicted things which never happened either. I remember back in the 50's when Popular Mechanics magazine (which I was an avid reader of) predicted flying cars, first attempted in 1917.

1431978442-curtiss-autoplane-patent.jpg?

Electric cars are actually not new but making a comeback. They were sold in the 1890's and into the 1920's but peaked about 1912, from what I can find. 

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The elephant in the room is the lack of generating capacity. A charging station can be placed at one mile intervals throughout North America, but without the required generating capacity they may be merely for looks.

 Some maintain there is adequate generating capacity, why then is Gov. Newsom of CA. requesting residents restrict their electricity usage at certain times of the day?

There is an old thread here about the supply side of this topic.

Edited by Ray,IN
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6 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

Why is anyone driving 250-400 miles for a physician's appointment when it is 0°F?  Where are you that you have to drive that far?

The point is not remotely about driving 400 miles to visit a physician in any weather, it's the more fundamental question about freedom of movement as needed or desired. That's the all American way of life that most don't want limited, by either technology or politics. Jay

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Battery technology beyond lead-acid has leaped light years during our lifetime - mostly in the past 15 years with lithium-ion.  Electric motors are considerably more efficient in converting electrical energy into kinetic energy rather than heat.  Like the old cigarette commercial for Virginia Slims, "We've come a long way, baby."

But.........

As a retired Electrical Engineer I am of the opinion we are doing what my ancestors called  "Putting the cart before the horse."  Or as some might say today, "Read, Shoot, Aim."

You can neither create or destroy energy.  You can ONLY convert it from one form to another.  The energy to charge newer technology batteries has to come from some other source.  Solar and wind are not enough.  Hydro-electric in many locations is in trouble due to well over-age dams and declining water tables.  Nuclear is a great choice for clean energy but people are afraid of it and we still do not have a reliable way to safely store the spent nuclear fuel (forever).  Most of our electricity is produced by burning fossil fuels to run turbine generators.  Thank goodness coal is no longer the main source of fossil fuel for generators in the USA.

Recharging an electric car is like turning on your 240 volt 50 amp electric oven overnight.  Anyone want to venture what would happen to our power grid if everyone were to do that tonight?  Maybe if not tonight, when the temperatures are hoovering above 90F or below 10F and air conditioners or electric heat is in tremendous demand?

I'm all for electric cars but the hype without knowing facts is driving us to an electrical power supply disaster.  THERE IS NO PLAN (Seems I've heard that recently on another matter).  We hear a lot of talk about "The Green Energy Plan", but the group responsible for the plan are not knowledgeable engineers.  Some folks want to spend trillions of dollars on infrastructure but have no idea what infrastructure is and keep slicing it up to include items that have nothing with infrastructure.  We are living in a time when roads, bridges, dams, electric distribution, sewers and sewage treatment plants, clean water and more are falling into disrepair or falling apart while we build more but fail to properly maintain and replace what we currently have.

I'm sorry if I am busting anybody's bubble, but we absolutely must have the additional electrical energy at the point of use, the ability to produce it without more of the same and the "power grid" (power lines, transformers, towers, switching networks and even in many cases larger service cables to homes with larger service entrance boxes and circuity).  We don't have it now, we don't have a comprehensive plan how to build it at a cost we can afford, and even if we did it would take decades to put it in place.  Yes, we can power "a few" electric cars with what we have. But, not an entire nation full.   BTW - does anyone know how many cars & trucks would need replacing?  Does 280,000,000 sound about right?

 

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I would buy a electric car since electricity is so cheap in my area.

Our second home, that we run as a vacation rental is 30 miles from our primary home.  That is really the place I need to access at ALL times of the year.

So here is my criteria for buying a electric vehicle.

125 miles on a charge at ZERO degrees temperature.  8,000 foot of elevation gain over those 125 miles. Four-wheel drive and a ground clearance of over 8 inches.   My friend paid 125,000 for a Tesla, I will pay 20,000 net after the Federal subsidy.

Nothing even comes close to meeting the 125 mile standard with 8,000 foot of elevation gain at ZERO degrees.

Lithium-ion batteries are great for low-land California and Florida.  They don't do that well in mountains and cold weather.

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, GlennWest said:

Those of us comuting to jobs sometimes 100 or so miles one way, how we going to do this with evs. We have no changing sites on job parking lots. 

Glenn my EV a 2020 Tesla Model,Y AWD, long range, two motor has a range of 326 miles. Assume 300 to be extra conservative, that leaves you 100 miles if it was 100 miles each way. Range will likely be increased and charging times come way down.

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3 minutes ago, RV_ said:

Glenn my EV a 2020 Tesla Model,Y AWD, long range, two motor has a range of 326 miles. Assume 300 to be extra conservative, that leaves you 100 miles if it was 100 miles each way. Range will likely be increased and charging times come way down.

In my case, Tesla won't fit my truck. 

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Randy, are you saying that there are no decent electrical engineers in the Department of Energy?   

Why do you assume that everything will happen overnight.  It will takes decades, but. WE  HAVE TO START!   Why is that such a difficult concept.  And if we don’t address human infrastructure the who is going to do all of the jobs of the future?  
 

I will admit, I just don’t understand that lack of imagination and willingness to see what can happen as we move forward?  Good thing that there have been generations willing to go out into the unknown and try new things or humans would never have gotten out of the caves!

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4 hours ago, Ray,IN said:

Some maintain there is adequate generating capacity, why then is Gov. Newsom of CA. requesting residents restrict their electricity usage at certain times of the day?

Part of that stems from a small fire problem in CA. A bit part of the CA grid is shut down because of those fires. They do need more capacity, but the fires have made it much worse. 

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The topic is that EV acceptance and sales have begun to match the rest of the world.

If any of you would, as I do, have an interest then by all means start a thread about how the energy to power EVs just can't be done. I would be very interested in the research.

It is clear that Tesla and what some perceive as green are the real naysayer issues.

You see reality as of now is that EVs ARE the future.

So please feel free to start a thread. The title might be how ignoring basic standards like Texas did, and not hardening their gas and electric production, as they said they would in 2011 after that big freeze/blackout/gas production halt, resulted in the deaths of a lot of Texans (one would be too many,) and blackouts as they fail to act, or act on very bad info that tells them it is safe to do nothing.

You see this is an Investment forum and folks believing yesterday's news in auto industry sales and tech, and are invested in current big three and import carmaker stocks, may want the data for their own portfolio decisions sooner than later.

Or not.

This thread is about how the EV sales and market shares in the US are rising fast. And how Fossil Fueled cars are declining in both sales and technology.

GM using LG to design and build the Bolt using their batteries now has the $1.8 billion dollar recall of all those battery packs. It takes a year or three to gear up design and production. So I became concerned when I saw all that battery capacity from LG that had to be designed a year or more ago, had been increased to build hundreds of thousands of Mustang EVs . . . all batteries for it made by LG.

So investors in car and truck makers and associated parts and battery suppliers success rates, and fails.  Tesla, has delivered now for 13 years since delivery of the first roadster in 2008 when the big three went bankrupt, or in Ford's case avoided only because of $30 billion or so in federal loan guarantees, and a ATVM DOE loan for $5 Billion.  And the TARP bailouts. Both signed into law in 2008 months before the elections.

So how about posting solutions to the problems you see. Some links and research into things Like Tesla applying for and likely getting approved, to become an electricity supplier in Texas.

I am an investor in the car and truck EV industry and may expand to Xping and/or Nio. Or buy more Tesla and post my reasons

Or not. I am all for solutions. Bring those on.

Or not.

Edited by RV_
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18 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

Part of that stems from a small fire problem in CA. A bit part of the CA grid is shut down because of those fires. They do need more capacity, but the fires have made it much worse. 

This is not exactly correct.  As someone who lives in CA and watches the commercials the state is playing to conserve energy in the early evening hours (when everyone gets home from work), it has nothing to do with the fires.  It is all about the heat and people turning their air conditioners on to cool their houses (along with all the other electrical appliances that get started up when people get home) and the inability of the grid to handle the power needs at times.

In addition and separate from this issue, the state enacts Public Safety Power Shutoffs during Red Flag warning times (high heat and high wind conditions).  The power company de-energizes grids in the Red Flag warning areas to prevent potential downed power lines from starting fires.  The PSPS events typically last from 2 to 5 days (no power at all for that time).  The power company can't just turn the switch back on when the Red Flag warning is done either.  They have to go out and inspect all the lines before power is restored. 

They are interesting times in CA right now with fires, drought, heat and electrical grid issues.  Add in other issues the state is having and it is no wonder people are leaving in record numbers.  We will eventually leave the state, but it will be several years before that happens.  Even with all the issues, it is hard to beat CA for weather and sheer scenic beauty.

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