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Is COVID winding down?


Chalkie
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We can only hope so. Here is a chart from the CDC:

1280061344_us-state-trends(1).png.bfbc023decdd5c2ca2b654e678c8a219.png

The source link for this is found on the CDC Data Tracker and scroll down to "Reported Cases".

To go along with this I found an OpEd on the Wall Street Journal written by Dr. Mark Makary who is a is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health. In it Dr. Makary says: 

Quote

Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

You can read the full piece here at the WSJ.

Overall, I find this to be very hopeful and I hope his assessment tied with the CDC stats is accurate.

Edited by Chalkie
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42 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

Unfortunately some of us can't unless we subscribe. They are one of those who limit the number of free viewings.

If you clear all WSJ cookies from your computer that will reset their count.

6 minutes ago, GlennWest said:

I read on WSJ we should have full herd immunity by April. 

That sounds like the article I was quoting.

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22 minutes ago, Chalkie said:

If you clear all WSJ cookies from your computer that will reset their count.

OOPS! A big mental slip as I did know that.  🙃

I certainly hope that the author proves to be right. I'll use two quotes that I believe to be important. 

Quote

My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. 

Quote

 But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.

 

 

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COVID cases may be going down in certain areas but in many others those pesky variants are going to be making spikes around the country.  From what I've read herd immunity will only be obtained when 75%+ of the public has been vaccinated.  That won't happen until late summer or fall.

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2 minutes ago, Mr. Camper said:

From what I've read herd immunity will only be obtained when 75%+ of the public has been vaccinated.  That won't happen until late summer or fall.

I doubt that the 75% number will ever be achieved.  There are many people who will not get this vaccination.  Children are not even eligible for any of the vaccines developed so far.

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Well, if one doesn't get vaccine, the chances goes up that when one does get the disease they will get sick and recover, with some immunity protection, or die and then not be around when next survey is done.    Once the vaccines are no longer under emergency release, but instead as regular vaccinations, the military will require them and a lot of businesses will require them, schools will require them for incoming students just like polio, chicken pox, measles, etc.    Airlines might start requiring them to be able to fly and other countries might require vaccination certification for the next few years.     And since we don't know how long immunity will last, it will be a few years before we really the status of the general population.   

 

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The huge rises in cases/deaths have occurred after every holiday or summer vacations and Christmas was the biggest yet.  That's why  we're seeing the big drops at the end of February.  The holidays are over.  We have other holidays coming up and the rise will happen again.  We are not experiencing herd immunity.  That's going to be difficult to achieve this early or if at all.  A LOT more need to be vaccinated.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/03/963373971/a-rocky-road-on-the-way-to-herd-immunity-for-covid-19

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Each day more and more people are vaccinated, and with the early rounds, that includes people like us that a much more likely to have complications and be hospitalized.  As more of us get both vaccinations, even if we do contract the virus, the incidence of long hospitalization is reduced, so the rates will continue to fall.  They will not go to zero because Covid-19 will be endemic to the country because so many will refuse vaccination, so there will always be a well of virus waiting to break out.   And more and more of those who refuse the virus will either get sick and develop some antibodies, or will die, thereby reducing the spread as time goes on.   

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7 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Unfortunately some of us can't unless we subscribe. They are one of those who limit the number of free viewings.

If you're using the Chrome browser, right click on the link and select "Open in incognito window". You may get a pop-up offer to subscribe, just close it...

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Here's a site I keep an eye on. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Scroll down a bit to see the daily cases and daily deaths. Draw whatever conclusions you want from the information. But it seems the downturn was ahead of any vaccine roll out. India has dropped their number of cases. Why?

If thee downturn is natural and given a hurry up by the vaccine all should be fine. 😁

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14 hours ago, Dutch_12078 said:

If you're using the Chrome browser, right click on the link and select "Open in incognito window". You may get a pop-up offer to subscribe, just close it...

You quite obviously didn't read my last post where I quoted the article.  

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1 hour ago, Kirk W said:

You quite obviously didn't read my last post where I quoted the article.  

I did read it, but apparently I was wrong in assuming you might want to read some other articles in the future that are behind paywalls without having to clear cookies first. My apologies... :)

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12 hours ago, Ray,IN said:

Herd immunity, didn't the last administation say that would be the case and was shouted down?

Someone please explain to Ray the difference in the herd immunity being referred to now vs the way they were approaching in under the last administration.  As I understand it now it is based on enough people getting the vaccinations where under the last administration it was based on enough people getting the virus and developing immunity  which of course turned out not to be the case.  That is as I understand it and I see it as a major difference.  Someone please make it clearer if you can.  I think Sweden and a at least one or more it the first way and  it was a failure.

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Herd immunity is simply put when a large part of the population becomes immune to a certain disease. It doesn't matter if people are immune due to vaccine or immune due to having the disease and recovering from and thus having antibodies. It doesn't matter what administrations wish to call it, the medical definition is the only one that counts.

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Yes, the problems with infection-related herd immunity were many.  First is the theory that every infection will be the same and the every person will react the same.   As has been seen, some people have very slight infections, recovered quickly but any immunity didn't last (wasn't enough to completely turn on immunity system) and people did get infected, often with disastrous results.  Second was the very real problem of people being overwhelmed by the virus and DYING.     With vaccinations, each person is getting sufficient numbers of particles to induce a full immune response in most people, that is why the clinical trials, as they try different dosages to see which dosage, or multiple dosages, gives the best antibody titer.   

And the plus is that when immunization is done rapidly a large population then renders the spread to practically nothing, so mutations are limited.  

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On 2/21/2021 at 9:49 AM, Kirk W said:

Unfortunately some of us can't unless we subscribe. They are one of those who limit the number of free viewings.

Kirk, if you delete the browser cookie for the WSJ, it resets the counter.   I find I can get 3 viewings before having to reset.

Just fyi for folks.

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3 hours ago, bigjim said:

 As I understand it now it is based on enough people getting the vaccinations where under the last administration it was based on enough people getting the virus and developing immunity  which of course turned out not to be the case.  

That is correct.  Natural herd immunity would have required a few million deaths.  I am so tempted to make a political joke here, but I'll restrain myself.

Edited by hemsteadc
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4 hours ago, bigjim said:

Someone please explain to Ray the difference in the herd immunity being referred to now vs the way they were approaching in under the last administration.  As I understand it now it is based on enough people getting the vaccinations where under the last administration it was based on enough people getting the virus and developing immunity  which of course turned out not to be the case.  That is as I understand it and I see it as a major difference.  Someone please make it clearer if you can.  I think Sweden and a at least one or more it the first way and  it was a failure.

Actually, I think you just did clear it up quite nicely.

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