How long will this go on?

[Randyretired]

20 minutes ago, Barbaraok said:

Thankfully we have the park model and so far it is fine.  Just don't walk outside into the furnace when it gets above 110.   

When we were there on a Friday before a holiday after my DW just had treatment, highway construction caused a 3 hour traffic jam on the road to Payson.  It was 112F and after 10 minutes of not moving our AC overheated and quit. That road is divided so we were just stuck there for 3 hours in that sun.  I hope to never be there in the summer again!

[Zulu]

37 minutes ago, LindaH said:

Although we haven't made a final decision yet, and won't until probably sometime in October, we're leaning toward heading south for the winter as we usually do.

Places to avoid -- AZ. It's corona-central. With all that's going on, my wife's friends there are still going out together in close company sans masks. When we go back in October it will be Park Model --> Grocery Store --> Park Model --> Grocery Store . . .

[Barbaraok]

43 minutes ago, Randyretired said:

When we were there on a Friday before a holiday after my DW just had treatment, highway construction caused a 3 hour traffic jam on the road to Payson.  It was 112F and after 10 minutes of not moving our AC overheated and quit. That road is divided so we were just stuck there for 3 hours in that sun.  I hope to never be there in the summer again!

When we lived here in the 70s we learned to leave at 5:00 am to head up into the mountains every weekend!  Can't aways do that, but that really is about the only time it is cool enough to do things.   I get up at 5, start a load of wash,  go get groceries placed in the back of the car I've ordered online at 6 am, go through Starbucks drive thru and then back to Park Model.  Can do a few things outside until about 10 am, then inside until sun goes down about 7:30.  

37 minutes ago, Zulu said:

Places to avoid -- AZ. It's corona-central. With all that's going on, my wife's friends there are still going out together in close company sans masks. When we go back in October it will be Park Model --> Grocery Store --> Park Model --> Grocery Store . . .

That's what we do except for the days we have physicians appointments - the highlight of our life right now !  Do walk in the mornings as the sun is coming up, really is pretty.   And sometimes after dark we go out (very few people left in the park) for a short walk.  I know it isn't that much cooler, but once the sun goes down, you can move around outside without feeling like you are in an oven.

[fpmtngal]

The mountains of Arizona might be cooler than Phoenix and Yuma, but it’s been hot recently.  Hate to think what my electric bill will be this month - I’ve been running the AC quite a bit.

My thought is that the LTVAs around Q will won’t be as crowded as usual this winter - if the couple of news articles are correct, some of the Canadians might be staying home because of health insurance issues.  And will they have the RV show?  If not, then January could be very quiet, many of the more local people won’t have a reason to go.  Maybe buy a clothes line for hanging out clothes to avoid the laundromat?  I’d need to rig up a way to siphon fresh water from a water jug to the trailer though - fresh water is a limitation for me at the best of times and if I’m hand-washing my laundry, it will be an even bigger one.

Things to think about.

[2gypsies]

4 hours ago, LindaH said:

That's why we wash our hands with non-antibacterial soap and save the hand sanitizer only for those times we don't have access to water.

Soap and water is the top recommendation by all medical advisors.

[2gypsies]

1 hour ago, fpmtngal said:

The mountains of Arizona might be cooler than Phoenix and Yuma, but it’s been hot recently.  Hate to think what my electric bill will be this month - I’ve been running the AC quite a bit.

 

For those thinking of trying to get cool in Arizona and those thinking all of Arizona is hot,  by Saturday these are the forecasts:

Phoenix - 112

Yuma - 112

Tucson- 105

Payson - 94

Show Low - 85

Pinetop - 83

Flagstaff - 83

[SnowGypsy]

Because opinions by physicians, epidemiologists and scientists of various specialties disagree, people are approaching the "situation" differently.  Even the CDC will not give even a guess as to how accurate the tests are for COVID 19.  Our county locked down very early forbidding a person to associate out of their household unless it involved "essential" activity, and now, we have ended up with a lot of late blooming cases.  Once the "marketing manager" started scheduling tests, "positives" picked up.  They were threatening huge fines and possibly jail time in our county, so the Public Health Officer has had her wings clipped at this point.  We are on the cross way of 2 major highways, and in the RV park, there has been no absence of business since March.  Because of the size of the virus, it pretty much will pass through any mask, and masks increase the risk of adjusting it and touching one's face, not to mention the reuse of them leaves something to be desired.  Those with breathing issues need to be very careful when wearing a mask as there have been problems with lack of oxygen.  The college here is going to require students wear masks inside and outside when they cannot social distance which means for hours a day breathing their own carbon dioxide, and I do wonder if they will try to institute that with school age children as I can't imagine that will play out well knowing kids.

 

People are seeing the facts now, and the more that are infected, the quicker it times out.  CDC is supposed to come out with new mask recommendations in the next few days according to what I have read.  Being well informed on this is the only way to go, stay away from the news and learn the science.  Politics are poisoned on both sides at this point.  Believe in science, and the CDC maybe not so much.  Questioning is good.

[Randyretired]

2 hours ago, SnowGypsy said:

 The college here is going to require students wear masks inside and outside when they cannot social distance which means for hours a day breathing their own carbon dioxide, and I do wonder if they will try to institute that with school age children as I can't imagine that will play out well 

In Denver the plan is for all school age children except those with medical conditions to wear masks in school.  Also on the playground.  I am glad I am not the one enforcing that.

[2gypsies]

3 hours ago, SnowGypsy said:

Those with breathing issues need to be very careful when wearing a mask as there have been problems with lack of oxygen.  The college here is going to require students wear masks inside and outside when they cannot social distance which means for hours a day breathing their own carbon dioxide, and I do wonder if they will try to institute that with school age children as I can't imagine that will play out well knowing kids.

I just saw this today by Univ. of Nevada regarding masks.  It's interesting that scientists and medical personnel wear masks all day long and have done so since early times.  Do you think they know something that we don't? 

https://www.unlv.edu/news/article/few-choice-words-about-masks?fbclid=IwAR2yFUNzU1LaSS5DcibcuvSQfpuzacO-RldM7nfQYyytgfjOpHs9jCm5Z-w

[Zulu]

26 minutes ago, 2gypsies said:

https://www.unlv.edu/news/article/few-choice-words-about-masks?fbclid=IwAR2yFUNzU1LaSS5DcibcuvSQfpuzacO-RldM7nfQYyytgfjOpHs9jCm5Z-w

Excellent!

[Randyretired]

I sure wish there was a push to produce N95 masks for the masses.  The safety of those far surpasses a cloth mask and it also protects the person wearing it.  We both have one from awhile back and wear them when around others, which isn't often.  Before this virus these N95 masks were readily available for less than $2.00.

[sandsys]

3 hours ago, Zulu said:

Excellent!

X2. I posted a link to this article in my blog.

 

[Kirk W]

Quote

I'm wearing a mask because I care about you, and you aren't wearing a mask because you only care about you. I bet you don’t wash your hands before you leave the bathroom or cover your mouth when you sneeze either. Your kindergarten teacher would be so very proud.

 

[hdrider]

We hunkered down in our winter location in Casa Grande Arizona 2 month longer than we normally do because of the virus and cancelled all of our summer plans that had us in popular tourist spots like Yellowstone, Cody and on and on. But we did escape the worst heat and moved north in Arizona to a remote area. We now plan to move into Colorado to sit a spell and then to Kansas to have some warrantee work done on our rig and then back to Colorado. 

 We do still have reservations to return to Casa Grande Arizona on November 1st but what happens virus wise will dictate if we actually do that. We might end up in Q as well but then I think about what to do if a person gets sick there, not much offered for help in that area. Dig a hole and crawl in I guess.

[LindaH]

22 hours ago, Zulu said:

Places to avoid -- AZ. It's corona-central..

Yes, we are aware of that, and it's one of the reasons we haven't made a final determination as to whether or not we'll head south (to Arizona).  As I explained in my previous post, physical distancing won't be a problem for us, we'll order online for curbside pickup of groceries, and won't be going inside any stores, including restaurants. 

The only thing that concerns us, and may ultimately be the reason we don't go, is the hospital situation in Yuma.  We've never had to use any medical facilities when we've been there, but stuff happens and with the ERs filled to overflowing with COVID patients, a heart attack, an auto accident, or other situation where one of us would have to go to the hospital could be deadly over and above the medical condition that brought us there.

[Barbaraok]

19 hours ago, 2gypsies said:

For those thinking of trying to get cool in Arizona and those thinking all of Arizona is hot,  by Saturday these are the forecasts:

Phoenix - 112

Yuma - 112

Tucson- 105

Payson - 94

Show Low - 85

Pinetop - 83

Flagstaff - 83

But we've already had hotter temperatures.   No one thinks of AZ for the summer unless they are forced to be here, usually because of medical treatments, like we are this year.

 

31 minutes ago, LindaH said:

Yes, we are aware of that, and it's one of the reasons we haven't made a final determination as to whether or not we'll head south (to Arizona).  As I explained in my previous post, physical distancing won't be a problem for us, we'll order online for curbside pickup of groceries, and won't be going inside any stores, including restaurants. 

The only thing that concerns us, and may ultimately be the reason we don't go, is the hospital situation in Yuma.  We've never had to use any medical facilities when we've been there, but stuff happens and with the ERs filled to overflowing with COVID patients, a heart attack, an auto accident, or other situation where one of us would have to go to the hospital could be deadly over and above the medical condition that brought us there.

In the Phoenix areas, the hospitals have segregated their areas (including ERs) into Covid and non-Covid areas.   They treat all ER patients as if the patient is positive by asymptomatic unless the patient says otherwise while they wait on tests (tests for hospital patients are done in house in the bigger hospitals).  So  everyone in the ER is suited up for the worse, but they quickly focus on what the patient is showing at the time.    Same would be true if you were back home.   So I guess you can be cold and fearful or warm and fearful for the winter.   

[trailertraveler]

In regard to the original question, 

Quote

How long will this go on?

Here are some quotes from an article by an Associated Press journalist. 

Quote

 

Many scientists don’t expect a coronavirus vaccine to be nearly as protective as the measles shot.

If the best COVID-19 vaccine is only 50% effective, "that’s still to me a great vaccine,” said Dr. Drew Weissman of the University of Pennsylvania.

“We need to start having this conversation now,” so people won’t be surprised, he added.

 

I don't claim to be an expert. My take on this statement is that if a vaccine is 50% effective; even if everyone in the country was vaccinated, that alone would not provide the 70% of the population that many have predicted is required to develop herd immunity in the population.

 

Quote

And for all the government promises of stockpiling doses in hopes of starting vaccinations by year’s end, here’s the catch: Even if a shot pans out -- and it’s one that your country stockpiled -- only some high-risk people, such as essential workers, go to the front of a very long line.

“Will you and I get vaccinated this year? No way,” said Duke University health economist David Ridley.

 

 

Edited June 29, 2020 by trailertraveler

[durangodon]

All I know about this virus is what I read.  How long will this go on?  It seems logical that the better job we do of suppressing the spread, the longer it will go on.

[Barbaraok]

If you get 50% effective, that cuts off a lot of spread.  Everyone in masks, careful contact tracing and isolating the reduce the transmission to smaller and smaller areas, fewer people.  Better treatments mean fewer people die, and then it becomes a chronic infection in the communities  that can be managed while better vaccines are in the works.   But it all hinges on controlling the spread now to give health care facilities and researchers TIME.      And actually suppressing the spread is a means of getting to the point where the virus can’t find a new host and thus dies out.  

 

[Ray,IN]

On 6/28/2020 at 9:41 AM, LindaH said:

That's why we wash our hands with non-antibacterial soap and save the hand sanitizer only for those times we don't have access to water.

Most of the off-the-shelf hand sanitizers state 99% effective killing germs, very few also mention virus's. Frequent hand washing is key to minimizing transmission to yourself.

[Randyretired]

5 minutes ago, Barbaraok said:

If you get 50% effective, that cuts off a lot of spread.  Everyone in masks, careful contact tracing and isolating the reduce the transmission to smaller and smaller areas, fewer people.  Better treatments mean fewer people die, and then it becomes a chronic infection in the communities  that can be managed while better vaccines are in the works.   But it all hinges on controlling the spread now to give health care facilities and researchers TIME.      And actually suppressing the spread is a means of getting to the point where the virus can’t find a new host and thus dies out.  

 

The original question is how long will this go on and if we make progress somewhat like you said I wonder how long until we get to that point.  Vaccines usually take about 10 years and I know they are talking about 18 months but better vaccines will likely take longer.  Then reaching 50%  vaccinated, that is a tall order just in the US not to mention the world.  Especially since there is talk of 2 or more doses for the first vaccines.  Hopeing the virus will just die out I can't imagine that in my lifetime.  Trying to be positive it seems we are at least a couple of years away from a pretty normal life as we knew it.  My plans are to try and go with the flow and make the best of it.  Social distancing and maybe masks or some new scheme will be the norm for a while and I expect we will slowly ease back to a less restrictive life.

[Pieere]

I sure would like to see Italy and China's reports of the COVID-19 tallies or if they are reducing!

[Velos]

SOURCE:  https://kidshealth.org/en/parents/germs.html

What Are Germs?

The term "germs" refers to the microscopic bacteria, viruses, fungi, and protozoa that can cause disease.

Washing hands well and often is the best way to prevent germs from leading to infections and sickness.

What Are the Types of Germs?

Bacteria

Bacteria (bak-TEER-ee-uh) are tiny, single-celled organisms that get nutrients from their environments. In some cases, that environment is your child or some other living being.

Some bacteria are good for our bodies — they help keep the digestive system in working order and keep harmful bacteria from moving in. Some bacteria are used to make medicines and vaccines.

But bacteria can cause trouble too, as with cavities, urinary tract infections, ear infections, or strep throat. Antibiotics are used to treat bacterial infections.

Viruses

Viruses are even smaller than bacteria. They aren't even a full cell. They are simply genetic material (DNA or RNA) packaged inside of a protein coating. They need to use another cell's structures to reproduce. This means they can't survive unless they're living inside something else (such as a person, animal, or plant).

Viruses can only live for a very short time outside other living cells. For example, viruses in infected body fluids left on surfaces like a doorknob or toilet seat can live there for a short time. They'll die quickly unless a live host comes along.

When they've moved into someone's body, though, viruses spread easily and can make a person sick. Viruses cause minor sicknesses like colds, common illnesses like the flu, and very serious diseases like smallpox or HIV/AIDS.

Antibiotics are not effective against viruses. Antiviral medicines have been developed against a small, select group of viruses.

Fungi

Fungi (FUN-guy) are multicelled, plant-like organisms. A fungus gets nutrition from plants, food, and animals in damp, warm environments.

Many fungal infections, such as athlete's foot and yeast infections, are not dangerous in a healthy person. People with weak immune systems (from diseases like HIV or cancer), though, may get more serious fungal infections.

Protozoa

Protozoa (pro-toe-ZO-uh) are one-celled organisms, like bacteria. But they are bigger than bacteria and contain a nucleus and other cell structures, making them more like plant and animal cells.

Protozoa love moisture. So intestinal infections and other diseases they cause, like amebiasis and giardiasis, often spread through contaminated water. Some protozoa are parasites. This means they need to live on or in another organism (like an animal or plant) to survive. For example, the protozoa that causes malaria grows inside red blood cells, eventually destroying them. Some protozoa are encapsulated in cysts, which help them live outside the human body and in harsh environments for long periods of time.

Reviewed by: Elana Pearl Ben-Joseph, MD

Date reviewed: March 2020

 

[trailertraveler]

30 minutes ago, Pieere said:

I sure would like to see Italy and China's reports of the COVID-19 tallies or if they are reducing!

Italy Deaths as percent of cases reported 34,744/240,436= 14.4%

From the same source:

U.S. Deaths as percentage of cases reported 128,665/2,668,588 = 4.8% 

[Velos]

35 minutes ago, Pieere said:

I sure would like to see Italy and China's reports of the COVID-19 tallies or if they are reducing!

Italy  Updated June 29, 2020, 2:24 P.M. E.T. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-cases.html

Very hard to find China statics: May 12, 2020, 8:32 PM

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/12/leaked-chinese-coronavirus-database-number-cases/