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How long will this go on?

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1 hour ago, Randyretired said:

Looking at the timelines it seems he was infected in March.  If that is right that is well before masks were recommended.

If he then refused to wear a mask, how many other people did he infect?

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Our understanding of the virus and its transmission mechanisms continues to evolve.  This article is a readable summary of what we currently believe to be true. about airborne transmission  It does raise some interesting questions.  For example at events such as John Lewis's funeral, the audience was masked and socially spaced, but the speakers were unmasked.  However, if the virus is, indeed airborne, wearing cotton masks is far less effective in preventing a person from breathing "in" a virus particle than they are in preventing a speaker from spewing them out!  Just something to think about!

Here's the article: We Need to Talk About Ventilation

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Recently had a pleasant, out in the open, encounter with a "soon-to-retire" Nurse, who works in a major Health Facility in Arizona.   After talking long about RV's, Retirement, Etc... we came around to 'work' issues (I worked in a large Hospital for many years).  Turns out she works in a ICU... and provides COVID care.   Her simple, emotional, words were... "It's Real... It's killing many people... and Destroying health in many others."   She had her mask with her.   It seemed clear that she was considering early retirement due to the dangers of nursing in a COVID environment.   Her unstated statement was "if everyone would just do what they are supposed to do"...        

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1 hour ago, Jim & Alice said:

"if everyone would just do what they are supposed to do"...        

There's the rub. So let's predict the future . . .

What will Summer 2021 be like?

 

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25 minutes ago, Zulu said:

There's the rub. So let's predict the future . . .

What will Summer 2021 be like?

 

Will there be a vaccine???  If so will there be enough vaccines for seniors to get it?  Will our bodies be able to produce enough antibodies?  How effective will it be and how long will it last?  Finally what are the side effects?  If and when we can answer these questions many of us will have a clue of what is in store.  In the mean time we are looking for some good N95 masks and staying home as much as possible.

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3 hours ago, Zulu said:

What will Summer 2021 be like?

I predict... there will be a Vaccine available, and things will be more back to 'normal'.   Hopefully, a (literally) Post Mortem will be conducted on what 'We as a nation' did wrong... and how can we get better prepared for the next Pandemic.   Travel wise, I think more normal Summer activities (ie, Workamping) will resume!

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4 hours ago, Zulu said:

What will Summer 2021 be like?

If there's a vaccine, the most vulnerable among us may be too scared to get it so social distancing will still be a reality for us.

Remote working will continue which will impact commercial rents. Some office buildings will be converted to apartments as people want to live closer to amenities.

We will value relationships more and work less. People might actually TAKE their vacation time off.

Schooling will change as kids will no longer be willing to sit at desks all day long--I see that as a good thing. My hope is that classes will be centered around interests rather than standardized textbooks. Why wouldn't kids prefer to learn math by measuring ingredients for cooking or material for sewing or learn about geology by studying dinosaurs or learn enough about auto mechanics to be able to tell if a worker is trying to rip them off?

DYI skills and materials will increase as people who stayed home learned they can do a lot of things themselves.

Families will reevaluate their housing now that they have leaned how to share space. And with minimalism becoming ever more popular will realize they no longer need so much storage space.

I could probably come up with more but that's enough for now.

Linda

 

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Tentatively they have 100 million doses order for each of the vaccines under going trial that are part of the current compact.   That's enough for 1/3 of the country - so it will be health care, emergency response personnel, essential workers, THEN the very high risk, including elderly and those with severe medical problems.  Assuming 1/3 will refuse the vaccine, that will leave 100 million still waiting - which means people will still be dying, we will still be wearing masks, social distancing.   IF we can get to a low background level, then things could open up come summer, but only if vaccinations are started in April at the latest.  

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4 minutes ago, Barbaraok said:

Tentatively they have 100 million doses order for each of the vaccines under going trial that are part of the current compact.   That's enough for 1/3 of the country - so it will be health care, emergency response personnel, essential workers, THEN the very high risk, including elderly and those with severe medical problems.  Assuming 1/3 will refuse the vaccine, that will leave 100 million still waiting - which means people will still be dying, we will still be wearing masks, social distancing.   IF we can get to a low background level, then things could open up come summer, but only if vaccinations are started in April at the latest.  

It would suprise me if health care, emergency response and essential workers would leave any for the elderly and so forth.  The essential workers, those still working make up a large number of people.  I believe more than 1/2 of the country is still working.  Then there is talk of each person requiring 2 doses.  There is a lot to figure out here but I think seniors will be more latter than sooner.  We can stay home while the rest of the country gets back to work.  

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My 2021 predictions are not optimistic. Let me be wrong:

  • A lot of “pretending” will come to an end. For example, pretending face-to-face schooling is possible, pretending team sports are possible, and so on.
  • Vaccination will fail. In order to work, a vaccine relies on its effectives and how many people take it. If either one of these factors is not sufficient, then social distancing would have to continue. For example, if only 75% of the population gets vaccinated, then a vaccine would have to be 70% effective. If only 60% get vaccinated, then a vaccine would have to be 80% effective. (see How Effective Does a Vaccine Need To Be).
    Given how people are acting now, social distancing after a vaccine won’t work.
  • COVID-19 disinformation will continue, frustrating efforts to contain the virus.
  • We’ll enter a real depression with many unemployed, homeless, and increased social unrest.
  • The Election: if it’s contested, welcome to Civil War 2.0.
  • International Effects: we can only “hope” that our adversaries are distracted enough by their own coronavirus problems so that they don’t seriously challenge us. Fat chance.

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Randy, a lot of "essential workers" will refuse vaccine.  Unfortunately a lot of them are anti-vexers.  

I am old enough to remember when Polio vaccine was finally available.   In our county it was done through the schools and EVERYONE WAS LINED UP AND MARCHED TO THE CAFETERIA.   Lots of quivering lips but no one was going to let others see them cry.   

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17 minutes ago, Barbaraok said:

I am old enough to remember when Polio vaccine was finally available.   In our county it was done through the schools and EVERYONE WAS LINED UP AND MARCHED TO THE CAFETERIA.   Lots of quivering lips but no one was going to let others see them cry.   

Back then we were a more homogeneous culture with a herd mentality. Now we are freedom fighters each with our own opinions. I can't imagine all the kids lining up for a vaccine now.

Linda

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I think we had all lived with the fear of dying from polio or becoming paralyzed.  Image of Iron Lungs are seared in my brain.  My third grade teacher had an arm and leg partial ly paralyzed by polio.    One of my aunts lost the hearing in her left ear due to measles. The effects of ‘childhood’ diseases were all to REAL to us.  

Edited by Barbaraok

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uKnuIUtl.jpg

shFdIi6l.jpg

Those so called freedom fighters are bullies and punks. They'd faint if they even tried to get through basic. And our assignments sometimes required us to take dangerous vaccines and we did fine.

https://health.mil/Military-Health-Topics/Health-Readiness/Immunization-Healthcare/Vaccine-Recommendations/Vaccine-Recommendations-by-AOR

https://www.health.mil/MHSHome/Military Health Topics/Health Readiness/Immunization Healthcare/Vaccine Recommendations/Vaccine Recommendations by AOR#AFRICOM

Since when did we become a nation of emotional three year olds who just discovered the word "NO!"

Edited by RV_

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On 7/30/2020 at 9:49 PM, Randyretired said:

Looking at the timelines it seems he was infected in March.  If that is right that is well before masks were recommended.

He said, "I didn’t wear a mask or nothing. I thought it was like those other ones coming out of China, the other colds or whatever they were."  He acknowledges he made the choice, and his wife used the word "hoax."

The thing is, the first lung transplant recipient said she started working from home in March and didn't leave her house, and still got it.  What is not clear is whether other people came inside her home during that time.  Which is very interesting to me--has anyone who truly quarantined with no contact with a single other human being and who had everything contactlessly delivered to the door gotten it?

 

On 7/31/2020 at 10:58 AM, docj said:

For example at events such as John Lewis's funeral, the audience was masked and socially spaced, but the speakers were unmasked. 

In the footage I saw, a lot of the audience was crowded in the middle section (which has been typical of all footage I've seen of funerals).  That's my problem with limiting capacity to X people.  It has to be X people AND they have to keep Y distance from each other in order for it to be effective.  It does no good if you limit it to 150 people and the 150 people don't spread out.

 

9 hours ago, RV_ said:

Those so called freedom fighters are bullies and punks. They'd faint if they even tried to get through basic. And our assignments sometimes required us to take dangerous vaccines and we did fine.

...

Since when did we become a nation of emotional three year olds who just discovered the word "NO!"

I've thought for a long time that mandatory military service upon graduation from high school (or turning 18 if not in high school) would be a massive win for every individual American and for the country as a whole.  Of course, right this minute wouldn't be the best time to implement that.  😀

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1 hour ago, Blues said:

In the footage I saw, a lot of the audience was crowded in the middle section (which has been typical of all footage I've seen of funerals). 

I noticed that also and agree with your comments.

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16 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

Randy, a lot of "essential workers" will refuse vaccine.  Unfortunately a lot of them are anti-vexers.  

I am old enough to remember when Polio vaccine was finally available.   In our county it was done through the schools and EVERYONE WAS LINED UP AND MARCHED TO THE CAFETERIA.   Lots of quivering lips but no one was going to let others see them cry.   

Quivering lips? I was fearless in the face of a sugar cube!

Rob

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2 hours ago, Blues said:

I've thought for a long time that mandatory military service upon graduation from high school (or turning 18 if not in high school) would be a massive win for every individual American and for the country as a whole. 

The combined armed forces are not nearly large enough to absorb that many people. About 3.3 million people graduate HS each year in the US. The entire military is only 1.3 million people and each year they need only 180,000 new recruits.

1 hour ago, Second Chance said:

Quivering lips? I was fearless in the face of a sugar cube!

That is because you are such a youngster. Barb & I are a bit older since the Salk vaccine was introduced to the public schools in 1955, while the Sabin oral vaccine was not made available until 1962. 

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2 hours ago, Second Chance said:

Quivering lips? I was fearless in the face of a sugar cube!

Rob

I got my SHOT the first year the Salk vaccine was available.  Almost older than dirt now. 😎
 

in fact we got a lot of vaccinations, testing in school.   Smallpox, Diptherea, TB testing.    Also vividly remember kindergarten - had measles,  German measles, chicken pox, and mumps that year!  

Edited by Barbaraok

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45 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

That is because you are such a youngster. Barb & I are a bit older since the Salk vaccine was introduced to the public schools in 1955, while the Sabin oral vaccine was not made available until 1962. 

I was in school during that whole range of years but never experienced either type in school.We got our vacinations at a doctor's office. My oldest brother's TB test always showed positive even though the never had TB. I think he might have had a light case of polio, though, because he's had hip problems all his life.

Linda

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22 hours ago, sandsys said:

 Now we are freedom fighters each with our own opinions. I can't imagine all the kids lining up for a vaccine now.

 

The kids would, it's the parents who wouldn't let them. Nobody doubted vaccines when I was young.   Misinformation and fear spread like wildfire now.  It seems there's this new attitude toward science that if it isn't perfect, it's no good.  I've heard Fauci get blamed for giving "bad" advice (at first) about a mask.  Yeah, so what? It's a new disease and we're all learning. 

Mr Gohmert went on Glenn Beck's program and actually blamed the mask (or his handling of it) for getting Covid.  Denial is a powerful emotion.  

Edited by hemsteadc

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4 hours ago, Kirk W said:

That is because you are such a youngster. Barb & I are a bit older since the Salk vaccine was introduced to the public schools in 1955, while the Sabin oral vaccine was not made available until 1962. 

Thanks for the compliment, Kirk. I haven't had anyone call me "youngster" in a while.

Rob

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2 hours ago, sandsys said:

I was in school during that whole range of years but never experienced either type in school.We got our vacinations at a doctor's office. My oldest brother's TB test always showed positive even though the never had TB. I think he might have had a light case of polio, though, because he's had hip problems all his life.

Linda

In our county it was all done in schools because so many kids from ‘up river’ never saw a physician unless they were in an accident and taken to the hospital.  Our county public health organized it with volunteer physicians and nurses.  By doing it at school no one was singled out for not having money to go to doctors.

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