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How COVID-19 Spreads

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COVID-19 is thought to spread mainly through close contact from person-to-person. Some people without symptoms may be able to spread the virus. We are still learning about how the virus spreads and the severity of illness it causes.

Person-to-person spread

The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

  • Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
  • Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks.
  • These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
  • COVID-19 may be spread by people who are not showing symptoms.

The virus spreads easily between people

How easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious, like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. Another factor is whether the spread is sustained, which means it goes from person-to-person without stopping.

The virus that causes COVID-19 is spreading very easily and sustainably between people. Information from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic suggest that this virus is spreading more efficiently than influenza, but not as efficiently as measles, which is highly contagious.

The virus does not spread easily in other ways

COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads. It may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads.

  • From touching surfaces or objects. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about this virus.
  • From animals to people. At this time, the risk of COVID-19 spreading from animals to people is considered to be low. Learn about COVID-19 and pets and other animals.
  • From people to animals. It appears that the virus that causes COVID-19 can spread from people to animals in some situations. CDC is aware of a small number of pets worldwide, including cats and dogs, reported to be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, mostly after close contact with people with COVID-19. Learn what you should do if you have pets.

Protect yourself and others

The best way to prevent illness is to avoid being exposed to this virus. You can take steps to slow the spread.

From the CDC website.

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6 hours ago, agesilaus said:

And Ft Detrick did a study on how well the virus survives in the sunlight and open air and found that it survives less than 90 seconds. Ft Detrick is the US Army biological warfare center in MD and is the world expert on this sort of thing.

We haven't even been through the seasons yet so no one really knows.  It hasn't been proven.  It's also interesting that everyone mentions sun and 'humidity'.  What about places with little humidity?

https://www.wired.com/story/how-might-the-change-of-seasons-affect-covid-19/

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9 hours ago, agesilaus said:

And Ft Detrick did a study on how well the virus survives in the sunlight and open air and found that it survives less than 90 seconds. Ft Detrick is the US Army biological warfare center in MD and is the world expert on this sort of thing.

With all due respect, it was a relatively incidental finding that came out of the lab's initial work with the virus.  Calling it a "study" is stretching things a bit.  Yes, sunlight can destroy the virus but that's about as far the findings go.

Here's an article about this topic: Ft Detrick work on coronavirus

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With all due respect, it was a relatively incidental finding that came out of the lab's initial work with the virus.  Calling it a "study" is stretching things a bit.  Yes, sunlight can destroy the virus but that's about as far the findings go.

I don't know where you found that in the article that you link to, it barely mentions the word sunlight. The WashPost does a little better:

 

Quote

The laboratory experiment also tested how the virus decays when exposed to various elements while suspended in the air. When the airborne virus at temperatures between 70 and 75 degrees is exposed to sunlight, its half-life decreases from around 60 minutes before exposure to 1.5 minutes after.

Bryan summarized: “Within the conditions we’ve tested to date, the virus in droplets of saliva survives best in indoors and dry conditions. … The virus dies quickest in the presence of direct sunlight.”

Bryan said the results of these experiments can “support practical decision-making” to reduce the risk of infection.

“Increasing the temperature and humidity of potentially contaminated indoor spaces appears to reduce the stability of the virus,” he said. “And extra care may be warranted for dry environments that do not have exposure to solar light.”

WP

 

And WP does call it a study.

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What about the countries/states that had temperatures at 70-75 deg.  The virus wasn't killed.  They still had cases.

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8 hours ago, 2gypsies said:

What about the countries/states that had temperatures at 70-75 deg.  The virus wasn't killed.  They still had cases.

Miami-Dade County Florida - 15,942 confirmed cases, 578 deaths

https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen&mid=%2Fm%2F0jhy9

Edited by Dutch_12078

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They still have lots of sunlight, except the PNW which has very high humidity of course. They also don't have subways that haven't been cleaned in 119 years, and they aren't forcing infected patients into nursing homes. Look at SD and ND almost no cases.

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Miami-Dade County Florida - 15,942 confirmed cases, 578 deaths

New York City 190000 cases 16000 dead 6000 in nursing homes. Also Miami-Dade is the number one destination for New Yorkers

Edited by agesilaus

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5 minutes ago, agesilaus said:

New York City 190000 cases 16000 dead 6000 in nursing homes. Also Miami-Dade is the number one destination for New Yorkers

So the warm temperatures and humidity didn't work for them either, I guess... ;)

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2 hours ago, Dutch_12078 said:

So the warm temperatures and humidity didn't work for them either, I guess... ;)

This is an excellent example of the difference between Aristotelian deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning (commonly called the scientific method).

With deductive reasoning you look for examples of events that support your hypothesis and then use those to justify your assumptions.   Occurrences that disagree are ignored.

With inductive reasoning you create a hypothesis and then look for any instance of events that don't support it!  As soon as a single repeatable occurrence is shown to violate the hypothesis it has to be discarded or changed.

In the case at hand, the hypothesis is that the virus doesn't do as well in hot, humid weather.  The fact that there are few COVID-19 cases in the Dakotas can be seen as being in agreement with the hypothesis.    So that is good if that's your hypothesis.

But the fact that there are lots of virus cases in FL, where it is hot and humid, is countered with "what about...?" logic because there is no way to change or discredit that data. ("What about?" logic is the use of another occurrence to combat an observation that the observer can't discredit).  

Aristotelian reasoning was discarded during the Renaissance more than 500 years ago.  Inductive reasoning is the basis for modern science.  It's the reason that scientific observations are peer reviewed.  When someone publishes a theory or findings, they are scrutinized in an effort to "poke holes" into them, not to be mean but to "test" them against all other observations. That's how we ensure that what we "believe" is based on facts, not opinion.

Edited by docj

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But the fact that there are lots of virus cases in FL, where it is hot and humid, is countered with "what about...?" logic because there is no way to change or discredit that data. ("What about?" logic is the use of another occurrence to combat an observation that the observer can't discredit). 

You are assuming a closed system which the US states are not. As I pointed out there was and still is massive influx of people from the infection center of NY to southwest Florida. Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. If you look at the rest of the state there are fewer cases. Also Miami International is a major airport that brought many people into the area.

Just because we have sunlight and humidity doesn't mean that folks get out into the outdoors. Large numbers fell for the lockdown theory and stayed inside where they are 18.6 times more likely to be infected.

And lastly the point I am making is that you are much better off outside, camping, hiking, swimming, boating and doing other outdoor activities. Than you are huddled inside shaking with fear. Stress diminishes your immune system.

And look at this JP Morgan study of the R transmission factor: JP Morgan study and here the actual JP Morgan page: Very interesting. Note that over the last three days NY has 87 new cases per million and FL 35 , TX 45. And NY has 284 hospitalized per million and FL 22 TX 60.

Don't you think it strange that NOT ONE mass media lefty publication has picked up the JP Morgan studies? At least none show in a google search.

Also CA has had a relatively mild epidemic and they have plenty of sun and humidity in Southern CA. Even tho LA is a major metropolis.

It seems as tho political decision making is more important along with population density in determining the outcome of this plague. NYC made terrible decisions. They failed to shut down the subways or even keep them clean for 119 years. And densely packed subways are just about the perfect transmission mechanism. And they intentionally infected nursing homes. You have to suspect that maybe they wanted to kill off as many of those expensive seniors as possible.

There is zero evidence that masks do any good. That is just someones 'idea' with no proof behind it. Show me some actual studies applying to the current population showing that masks prevent infection. We have a name for this sort of thing in engineering: "anal extraction" for a data source. Sorry to be crude.

 

Edited by agesilaus

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57 minutes ago, docj said:

This is an excellent example of the difference between Aristotelian deductive reasoning and inductive reasoning (commonly called the scientific method).

And sometimes a statement with a wink is just that, a statement with a wink... :)

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2 hours ago, agesilaus said:

Don't you think it strange that NOT ONE mass media lefty publication has picked up the JP Morgan studies? At least none show in a google search.

Fox Business did report on it:JP Morgan paper

But, quite frankly, if you get into the detail of the report in Section 2 pages 4-5 all it really says is that there isn't evidence yet for a second wave of the virus even in states that have reopened.    Whether or not that's because people have largely stayed home despite the re-opening of their States or because of some other reason is yet to be determined.

The reason the study probably didn't get much play in the press is because all it purports to be is a statistical analysis of what has happened rather than a predictive study like others that are getting more press attention.

In fact, the "scare headline" that "lockdowns might have caused more deaths than the virus" appears to be the result of this one quote from someone a JP Morgan who isn't the person whose name is on the report, a quote that doesn't appear to be at all backed up by the study itself.  But, if you have an opinion you are trying to promote, it's a good flamboyant quote:

Unlike rigorous testing of potential new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself," wrote Marko Kolanovic, a quantitative strategist at the lender's investment bank.

Note that there's a big difference between saying that something could cause more deaths than something else and claiming that it actually did! 

Edited by docj

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A little off topic, I read today that the US has pledged $1.2 billion to AstraZeneca  for their covid vaccine.  While still unproven I guess it has a lot of promise.  Maybe by next year we will have a vaccine.

Edited by Randyretired

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We can’t stay locked down for such a considerable period of time that you might do irreparable damage and have unintended consequences, including consequences for health,” Fauci explained, adding, “We are enthusiastic about reopening. I think we can do it in pace that would be reasonable and would get us back as a society from a morale standpoint as well as the economy.”

“I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for prolonged period of time is the way to go,” Fauci continued. “We had to do that when we had the explosion of cases, but now is the time depending upon where you are and what your situation is, to look at reopening the economy, reopening the country to try to get back to some degree of normal. I’m totally in favor of that if it’s done in the proper way in the appropriate setting.”

 

From your own Guru

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7 hours ago, agesilaus said:

And look at this JP Morgan study of the R transmission factor: JP Morgan study and here the actual JP Morgan page: Very interesting.

As I think docj mentioned, the "study" was done by Marko Kolanovic, a JP Morgan quantitative and derivatives strategist. I've been unable to find the actual report, but even if I did, I have two problems with it from the getgo:

  • Marko Kolanovic appears to have no credentials in infectious diseases.
  • Marko Kolanovic appears to have a conflict of interest. Showing no need for further lockdowns would improve JP Morgan's business.

Expertise and conflict of interest avoidance are necessary factors in any good research.

 

7 hours ago, agesilaus said:

Also CA has had a relatively mild epidemic and they have plenty of sun and humidity in Southern CA. Even tho LA is a major metropolis.

 

There are other, more important, factors besides weather, but you're making the classic mistake of confusing correlation with cause and effect.

For example, shoe size is correlated with intelligence. In general babies are dumber than adults and in general babies have smaller shoes than adults. However, saying that larger shoes is a cause of increased intelligence is probably not true. 

 

7 hours ago, agesilaus said:

There is zero evidence that masks do any good. That is just someones 'idea' with no proof behind it. Show me some actual studies applying to the current population showing that masks prevent infection.

No, no, no. That's not how it works. When you make a claim, you have to support it with proof.

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