The Imperial College Study: Predicting the Future of the COVID-19 Epidemic

[Zulu]

This March 16 report from Imperial College in Great Britain predicts how the COVID-19 epidemic may develop over the following months, and it's very sobering to say the least. Here's the Complete Imperial College Report.

 

Here are various media reactions to the Imperial College Report. Choose your poison:

Mother Jones - the "punch in the gut" version

Financial Times

Reuters

National Review

Fox News

CNN

[RV_]

Excellent sources Zulu, and those in denial, or think that a virii can be manipulated with big lie theory, like segments of a population can, when bacteria, virus', one celled pathogens, and Prions, have no politics, and no nationalities, no borders. They just eat, crap many times toxins from metabolizing their food, and reproduce many times asexually, they don't even have genders in many cases. So calling them Chinese, or German like the measles, is really showing xenophobias. No satisfaction there because no matter how you mock, them, cuss them out, or take it out on children, pathogens don't care, they just keep eating us. Here's the chart from the Mother Earth article Zulu posted above showing how many deaths result with how much effort we are willing to put into it.: 

For the same info from Fox: "If no control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behavior are undertaken, authors noted that a peak in daily deaths could occur in about three months, somewhere around June 20 in the U.S. In an unmitigated epidemic, scientists predict around 2.2 million deaths in the U.S., which doesn't account for the effects of health systems being overwhelmed in regards to mortality." Source: Zulu's list above. 

We've got some sickos here in the US, along with the Corona virus. Personally I can't see the frustrations, fear, and anger from helplessness being assuaged, even a little by bullying children or encouraging it. https://www.bing.com/search?form=MOZLBR&pc=MOZI&q=chinese+kids+getting+bullied+in+the+US+because+of+corona I have not seen this kind of ignorant hate being reported from anywhere but here, although I may have missed an isolated case.

Car accidents in the US has exceeded ~ 40,000 per year: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/traffic-deaths-in-u-s-exceed-40-000-for-third-straight-year

I've actually seen posted here and elsewhere comments like more folks are killed on our roads than that! Sure. If it goes worst case, 2,200,000 killed by Corona this year versus 40,000 killed on our roads.

Let's see how many years of traffic fatalities it would take to equal 2.2 million this year from the Virus. 2,200,000 divided by 40,000 = 55 years of US traffic fatalities. There's your sign!

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by RV_

[chirakawa]

6 hours ago, RV_ said:

So calling them Chinese, or German like the measles, is really showing xenophobias.

Not necessarily.  Mankind has been referring to diseases by their location of origin for many years.  West Nile virus, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Lyme disease, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Spanish Flu, Legionnaires Disease,  etc.  That's just an easy way to identify them, not necessarily a fear of that region or nation or people.

The fact is that this one started in China and they didn't handle it very well.  They deserve to own it.

[Kirk W]

19 minutes ago, chirakawa said:

That's just an easy way to identify them, not necessarily a fear of that region or nation or people.

Since the names come from the World Health Health Organization, that seems much more probable. 

[chirakawa]

Zulu, thanks for that link.  I found it interesting.  I'm surprised that they could reach the conclusions they did with so many unknown variables.  Or, maybe they're not unknown, just not publicly known.  I was reading some FAQ's on the CDC site and there seems to be quite a few things they don't know or are not sure of.  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html

[chirakawa]

4 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Since the names come from the World Health Health Organization, that seems much more probable. 

There's no question that some people are xenophobic, and that may apply here for some.  That's particularly true for someone who would behave aggressively toward another simply because they are Chinese.  But, I don't think you can paint everyone with the same brush.

[Zulu]

2 minutes ago, chirakawa said:

There's no question that some people are xenophobic, and that may apply here for some.  That's particularly true for someone who would behave aggressively toward another simply because they are Chinese.  But, I don't think you can paint everyone with the same brush.

As things get worse, it will get more racist. The effort by some to insist on calling COVID-19 the "Wuhan flu" or "Chinese flu" are just the first indicators.

BTW, if this is how this thread's discussion goes, then here comes denial . . . and I'm not talking about a river in Egypt.

[chirakawa]

33 minutes ago, Zulu said:

As things get worse, it will get more racist. The effort by some to insist on calling COVID-19 the "Wuhan flu" or "Chinese flu" are just the first indicators.

BTW, if this is how this thread's discussion goes, then here comes denial . . . and I'm not talking about a river in Egypt.

I hope you're wrong.  I'm certainly not in denial, although I haven't heard anyone use either of those "flu" terms.  I am well aware of the fact there are racists in the world, but not everyone who may use those terms are.  JMO

When I was a kid, everyone in my neighborhood got the measles.  I remember my mother saying how glad she was that it was the German measles.  It seems the regular measles were much more harmful and dangerous.  I never heard the phrase used in a derogatory context.  It was just a way of distinguishing between the two.

I guess I just try to reserve judgment of people and try to not label people based on a single word or thought.

[Zulu]

5 minutes ago, chirakawa said:

I hope you're wrong.  I'm certainly not in denial, although I haven't heard anyone use either of those "flu" terms.

The President

 

5 minutes ago, chirakawa said:

When I was a kid, everyone in my neighborhood got the measles.  I remember my mother saying how glad she was that it was the German measles.  It seems the regular measles were much more harmful and dangerous.  I never heard the phrase used in a derogatory context.  It was just a way of distinguishing between the two.

 

When I was a kid my brother used "coon" and "nigger" to differentiate between black and white people. But that was in the past, so it was ok, eh?

[chirakawa]

17 minutes ago, Zulu said:

When I was a kid my brother used "coon" and "nigger" to differentiate between black and white people. But that was in the past, so it was ok, eh?

No, it wasn't.  Those terms were/are intended to be derogatory.  I don't consider naming a particular virus by it's geographic origin as derogatory.  I guess I'm not devious enough to think that way.  Of course, I also don't go through life looking for things to be offended by.

[Ray,IN]

To complicate you guys discussion; why was the 1918 flu epidemic called the Spanish flu when It originated in the U.S.A.? It was transmitted from hogs to humans.

The COVID-19 flu was transmitted from the live animal market in Wuhan China to humans.

Leastways, that's my understanding from the news media.

[chirakawa]

8 hours ago, Ray,IN said:

To complicate you guys discussion; why was the 1918 flu epidemic called the Spanish flu when It originated in the U.S.A.? It was transmitted from hogs to humans.

The COVID-19 flu was transmitted from the live animal market in Wuhan China to humans.

Leastways, that's my understanding from the news media.

I think because of the heavy death toll in Spain, something like 1 million people in a month.

I have some buddies who were criticizing the Chinese for eating various critters.  I just reminded them of Americans' taste for wild game like deer, elk, bear, raccoon, alligator, frogs, rabbit, squirrel, and many others, not to mention an assortment of shellfish which have been known to carry deadly disease over the years.  I've eaten all of the above, guess I'm just lucky I never picked up a deadly disease from it.

After my last post I tried to research the origin of the German Measles, to see if it was indeed intended to somehow slur the German people.  Best I could find was a reference to a German physicist named Hoffman who first clinically documented the disease in 1740.

I don't know.  At first, I think a lot of the newscasters were calling this thing the Wuhan Virus, until a more official name surfaced.  I doubt they meant it as a racial slur.  I try to give people the benefit of the doubt.

[GlennWest]

Some are just too sensitive. Don't wear my feelings on my shoulder. I am not raciest. My parents were and it disgusted me. Heck, the name sounds like a beer. 

[docj]

10 hours ago, Ray,IN said:

why was the 1918 flu epidemic called the Spanish flu when It originated in the U.S.A.? It was transmitted from hogs to humans.

From what I have read, the Spanish admitted how many cases they had while the Brits, Germans and others lied to the public about how bad the epidemic was.  As a result Spain got the name and the blame for it.

[docj]

2 hours ago, chirakawa said:

I have some buddies who were criticizing the Chinese for eating various critters.  I just reminded them of Americans' taste for wild game like deer, elk, bear, raccoon, alligator, frogs, rabbit, squirrel, and many others, not to mention an assortment of shellfish which have been known to carry deadly disease over the years.  I've eaten all of the above, guess I'm just lucky I never picked up a deadly disease from it.

What people eat is different all over the world.  Being different from what one is accustomed to doesn't make it wrong or inferior.  I've eaten horse in Ukraine, jellyfish in Korea, as well as octopus and all sorts of raw seafood in Japan.  Can't say I always enjoyed it, but that's to be expected when you try something new.  In all cases my hosts were gracious and I was a polite guest who thanked them for the opportunity to taste it.

[RV_]

Hey folks, I really don't give a damn if anyone here is racist or not. It's been my experience those niggling hates eat folks up slowly or fast and you can see it in their social interactions. But to be honest, they aren't important enough in my life to get my attention. It's not my job to monitor the poor or decent behaviors of others. How my president represents me to the rest of the world does concern me. I hope all here are safe and taking precautions. I've seen some interesting confusion about social distancing and shelter in place rules. Here's a chart that may help: 

 

[folivier]

If the virus were to be found here in southern Louisiana in crawfish, well we'd just have to close our borders and suffer the consequences.  While we enjoy our crawfish....

[Pat & Pete]

I found this LA Times article interesting : 

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Pat & Pete