Are You Ready for the Financial Crisis of 2019?

[RV_]

We all know the markets cannot be Bull markets forever. I am still in with some MJ but the bulk of my investments are out of the markets now. I don't feel impending doom because we have been and remain cash only no debt, house cars the works. This is a relatively short article but makes some good points. As well I read another guru who said that just before every major recession depression there was a corresponding spike in the last few months to year before they fell. I had to get out to buy my new house but will have to sell the old one once we move so that may be interesting if we do have a major correction to the world markets.

Excerpt:

"For moneyed Americans, most of the past year has felt like 1929 all over again — the fun, bathtub-gin-quaffing, rich-white-people-doing-the-Charleston early part of 1929, not the grim couple of months after the stock market crashed.

After a decade-long stock market party, which saw the stocks of the S. & P. 500 index create some $17 trillion in new wealth, the rich indulged in $1,210 cocktails at the Four Seasons hotel’s Ty Bar in New York, in $325,000 Rolls-Royce Cullinan sport-utility vehicles in S.U.V.-loving Houston and in nine-figure crash pads like Aaron Spelling’s 56,000-square-foot mansion in Los Angeles (currently on the market for $175 million, more than double what it fetched just five years ago).

Will it last? Who knows. But in recent months, the anxiety that we could be in for a replay of 1929 — or 1987, or 2000, or 2008 — has become palpable not just for the Aspen set, but for any American with a 401(k).

Overall, stocks are down 1.5 percent this year, after hitting dizzying heights in early October. Hedge funds are having their worst year since the 2008 crisis. And household debt recently hit another record high of $13.5 trillion — up $837 billion from the previous peak, which preceded the Great Recession.

After a decade of low interest rates that fueled a massive run-up in stocks, real estate and other assets, financial Cassandras are not hard to find. Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire investor, recently posited that we are likely in a “global debt bubble,” and Jim Rogers, the influential fund manager and commentator, has forewarned of a crash that will be “the biggest in my lifetime” (he is 76).

What might prove the pinprick to the “everything bubble,” as doomers like to call it? Could be anything. Could be nothing. Only time will tell if the everything bubble is a bubble at all. But, just a decade after the last financial crisis, here are five popular doom-and-gloom scenarios."

To find out read the whole article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/10/style/2019-financial-crisis.html?utm_medium=10today.ad1.20181213.421.2&utm_source=email&utm_content=article&utm_campaign=10-for-today---4.0-styling

[rynosback]

The  Bears hit big in October to current, wiping pretty much all of this years gains.  The PE ratios for a lot of stocks are very cheap right now. The slowing economy has been “baked in” to a lot of stocks as there estimates for the 1st quarter have been forecasted lower.  

The Feds interest rate hikes seem to be not as much as a concern now.  The trade agreement is the BIG key. But I am going to put stop losses on some of my stocks that I am nicely up.

[Kirk W]

UBS predicts a S&P 500 rally next year that's 20% higher than current levels

[RV_]

Ryno,

Good thinking. I need to do stop losses on my two mj stocks. But as I said in the OP above:

"As well I read another guru who said that just before every major recession depression there was a corresponding spike in the last few months to year before they fell. I had to get out to buy my new house but will have to sell the old one once we move so that may be interesting if we do have a major correction to the world markets."

So I believe there will be some big gains and a lot of volatility in this next year, and the real decline at the end. Like when I held Tesla long through eight years of volatility, I'll sell high, when the time is right.

There's big money to be made in the next 11 months.

Edited December 16, 2018 by RV_

[rynosback]

Sheesh should have sold EVERYTHING when you posted this.  I hope Trump does not fart to loud or stocks might drop another 3-4%.  They say that it is due to uncertainty, but isn’t the future uncertain as no one owns a crystal ball.

[RV_]

Ryno,

Hindsight is always 20-20. No one can time the market, no one has a crystal ball. My investments were just being informed and seeing where things will go. I did a "14 bagger" with Tesla, and now am up 100% on NBEV, and down a little on ACB. But as I told a local friend I expect ACB to take off in the next year or three. So it's a long hold.

I am also benefiting from great timing in buying a new home in Colorado. I wanted to buy in winter when its more a buyer's market. But this market uncertainty may also drop the housing market as the fed is increasing prime rates and that making loans more costly and perhaps harder to get. Cash in this market means the advantage in buying a house. Then I'll stay down here to take my time getting the best price in spring for our current house. No smarts, just right place, right time.

Edited December 24, 2018 by RV_

[TheJoblessRver]

I knew we couldn't keep growing like we did in 2017, but this year hit me pretty bad. 

Hopefully 2019 bounces back some. 

[RV_]

Hey jobless, welcome to the forums.

I'm pleased to meet you. Sorry about the circumstances. I'm not optimistic except for the  niche industry I'm in now. I don't have a crystal ball either.

[rynosback]

SELL SELL SELL.  The “Christmas rally” was a bust.  I am tired of losing thousands every day.  I think I am going to sit on the side line and wait for the government to open and the China trade deal to settle.  The good thing is that interest rates are up and I can get an OK percentage.  Anything is better then minus 30% and still dripping like a rock.

when the big winner of the day was the VIX, that is a SIGN.

Edited December 24, 2018 by rynosback

[RV_]

Oh man sorry for everyone taking this beating. I'm only in for the NBEV and Aurora marijuana sector stocks. Once I get to Colorado, I can look into some of the startups personally. I'm still doing OK. I am up on NBEV, and down a little on Aurora as of today. Like I said with Tesla, I will re-evaluate my positions in a year or three. I am glad my retirement isn't tied to the market.

Edited December 25, 2018 by RV_

[RV_]

I hope no one sold at a loss before the pendulum swung back.

[rynosback]

31 minutes ago, RV_ said:

I hope no one sold at a loss before the pendulum swung back.

If you mean me, yes I sold EVERY position I had in the market.  I should have just put a stop loss on everything.  I just consider it a 22k  to 25k lesson that I missed out on today’s gains alone. I am sitting out for a while and waiting for it to drop even more.

funny how the shut down is not brining the market down anymore.....

so wihen I post sell, you should buy.

come on Trump, tweet something.....

Edited December 26, 2018 by rynosback

[RV_]

I'm sorry you took a loss. We're on the way to a bear market long term but there may be several repeats of the last week. I was tempted to buy during the market's slips last week but I'm looking for good buys when the real recession hits, like when I bought in 2008, and again in 2010 when Tesla did their IPO. I just sold at $348 couple of months ago just to not get sucked into a long low cycle due to shorts when I need ready cash to buy our new house. I was down about $11k out of 5000 shares of ACB and NBEV stays about twice what I paid. But these are just long positions I feel confident will grow into serious profits like Tesla did in eight year holding it. I'm looking for them to be making that serious money in from a year to five years.

I just took about 1/7th of what I made from Tesla and the pot stocks are not savings or our retirement. It is, like when I bought $25k of TSLA in 2010, discretionary funds. If I lose it all it won't cause our lifestyle to change at all. But U am not a fool, I expect to make money. But don't want anyone to do as I do. I could lose these two plays. So I'll see how they do over time.

No I wasn't aiming that question at you because the last you said was you were doing a stop loss.

The best opportunities are clear to see when everyone around me is yelling the sky is falling! I get emotional about bad information when the facts are available.

Good luck with your next play/s!

[rynosback]

Yup, sitting out until I think that the market has bottomed.  I still think we are in for some more pain.  Shocked that the marked bounced back up to about even after it  was down a couple hundred points.  After the BIG gain day.

[rynosback]

The only stocks I kept are the 2 pot stocks that I own.  One looks like a hostile takeover is in the works, APHA.  The good thing is that it will give them a US footprint.  I mean consumer spending is high and if something really goes bad I bet it will still do good.  

[rynosback]

On 12/27/2018 at 1:22 AM, RV_ said:

I'm sorry you took a loss. We're on the way to a bear market long term but there may be several repeats of the last week. I was tempted to buy during the market's slips last week but I'm looking for good buys when the real recession hits, like when I bought in 2008, and again in 2010 when Tesla did their IPO. I just sold at $348 couple of months ago just to not get sucked into a long low cycle due to shorts when I need ready cash to buy our new house. I was down about $11k out of 5000 shares of ACB and NBEV stays about twice what I paid. But these are just long positions I feel confident will grow into serious profits like Tesla did in eight year holding it. I'm looking for them to be making that serious money in from a year to five years.

I just took about 1/7th of what I made from Tesla and the pot stocks are not savings or our retirement. It is, like when I bought $25k of TSLA in 2010, discretionary funds. If I lose it all it won't cause our lifestyle to change at all. But U am not a fool, I expect to make money. But don't want anyone to do as I do. I could lose these two plays. So I'll see how they do over time.

No I wasn't aiming that question at you because the last you said was you were doing a stop loss.

The best opportunities are clear to see when everyone around me is yelling the sky is falling! I get emotional about bad information when the facts are available.

Good luck with your next play/s!

With this last adjustment over the past 3 months it usually takes something like 4 1/2 to recover what was lost.  I still think there is some more downside coming, so I wanted to minimize my losses.  And now I have cash sitting and waiting to really go to work for me.  But for now it will sit in a high yield account.

I might put a little more into my pot stocks.  I think I am also going to look into hemp stocks.  

Edited December 28, 2018 by rynosback

[RV_]

Me too, but I have to move first.

[Ray,IN]

Nearly all my money is in "aggressive" mutual funds, I've got much less after last month, at least on paper. I'll hang in though, not much choice anyway.

[hdrider]

A little over 2 months ago I just started feeling uneasy and moved over half of our funds out of the market into staggered CD's. At that time our financial advisor warned me about trying to time the market to which I said I wasn't but I just need to feel more secure for a while.

 Even though the CD's are not making much, a little over 2%, I'm content with it rather than what would have happened if left alone. Now as the CD's mature each month we just roll them into another and when hairs on the back of my neck lay down again we will roll them back into the market but I don't see that happening any time soon. 

 I just got tired of hearing the old saying "leave things alone because they always come back" even though history says that may be true.

[chirakawa]

Years ago when I was a trustee for a pension, the messages I kept hearing over and over from our money managers was "if you're not in the market for the long term, you have no business being in the market at all" and "there are hundreds of Harvard MBA's out there who can't time the market, no reason to think you can".

I'm in, and I'll stay in until 6 years 3 months before I die.

[Pat & Pete]

47 minutes ago, chirakawa said:

Years ago when I was a trustee for a pension, the messages I kept hearing over and over from our money managers was "if you're not in the market for the long term, you have no business being in the market at all" and "there are hundreds of Harvard MBA's out there who can't time the market, no reason to think you can".

I'm in, and I'll stay in until 6 years 3 months before I die.

Good one .

[RV_]

I can wait long as long as I want. But I haven't sold low yet. I buy with my vision of the long term prospects of a company and its leadership. That's all I can assess, not the future.

That's good enough for me . . . for now.

[Sehc]

The real problem will come with the next new year. All the quick repairs to the computer code to survive the 2000 turnover will be confused by 2020. No one realized the two numbers were to be the same and, at this time, there is no provision for the error. The markets will crash and burn. Those with cash will grab up the refuse and prosper when the solutions are in place. Predicted to be no sooner than February 23, 2020.

[RV_]

Sehc, got a link to your source?

[RV_]

I agree Dolbin, and welcome to the forums.