Pundit thinks that Tesla's batteries won't solve their short term problems...

[Kirk W]

Wow... are you ever misinformed: http://www.solarpowerrocks.com/alaska/

 

Rate of return on solar investment in AK is 6.3% according to that website. Connection to the grid in AK is very expensive and then the power you draw is also expensive. Plus the residents of AK have learned how to live off the grid.

Interesting article, but it doesn't change the fact that the less intensity of the sun, the more cells you need and the less cost effective. My comments about it not yet working everywhere still stand. Progress is being made and the day may not be far off, but it isn't here yet.

 

I suspect that we may well see the utility companies using solar and wind power for their sources in a major way before we see large numbers of homes in typical communities that are independent of the power grid. But who really knows what the future will bring in the power market? Most of us have lived long enough to have seen things come about that none could have imagined when we were very young. The reality is that none of us can predict the future and while this does seem to be real progress, it is far from a sure thing.

[RV_]

Hey,

It's science versus believing what you want again. What exactly are the intensity differences you say you are aware of between Alaska on a summers day with 20 hours of daylight, and whatever location you are using as a baseline? Please enumerate the facts for us. And a better source. Sounding reasonable while you cite nothing leaves me unimpressed with your pontificating about science.

 

No one said that we were living off the grid and 100% solar. Nor did any of the articles. Could you provide your sources?

[wa_desert_rat]

Well... to be fair... I mentioned that the defection of people from the grid is something that the utility companies need to be aware of and I think Kirk has been responding to that. But I don't think everyone will... I do think that it's not unlikely. I could do it here for $15k but I would be doing it myself and not have an "installer". Anyway one of my links also mentioned that and even had the term "grid defection".

 

WDR

[RV_]

WDR,

Tesla already knew that their solar night and day is not ready for prim time. But they are being developed in direct response to utilities that are trying to actually create tariffs to eliminate much of the savings of solar installations. In other words they have a monopoly to protect, and tariffs cause them to make even more as more solar installs are made, and their solar customers are not being paid for their power returned to the grid.

 

The batteries are one step. Like how the original Roadsters had a two speed Tranny, then changed to a single sped and modified the power regulation modules along the way. The idea is to do it, improve it as you go. Innovation.

 

What I had said from the git go was that there will be high demand for their home backups to take over what I paid $6k for, and now another $5500.00 to upgrade the new house from an air-cooled 15kw system that strained to run a four or five ton A/C, to a 25kw liquid cooled and quieter big whole house generator. There is no return on investment. But a big smile on our face when it cuts in avoiding brown out damage o our equipment, and how it stays on until any surges settle down on incoming grid power so my equipment is protected from Surge damage. Our Home theater is hooked up to a UPS that will only run the system for a minute or two. Each of our desktops have their own UPS each that will run them, the cable modem, the wireless router for about two minutes.

 

The whole house backup auto switching genset kicks in 15 seconds after serious fluctuations or power fails from the grid.

 

Here is a great article that cuts to the chase for those only hearing one side of the story, with spin at that:

 

Excerpt:

 

"Here’s where things get interesting. SolarCity, with Musk as its chairman, has decided not to install the 7kWh Powerwall that’s optimized for daily use. Bass said that battery "doesn't really make financial sense" because of regulations that allow most U.S. solar customers to sell extra electricity back to the grid .

 

For customers of SolarCity, the biggest U.S. rooftop installer, the lack of a 7kWh option means that installing a Tesla battery to extend solar power after sunset won't be possible. Want to use Tesla batteries to move completely off the grid? You'll just to have to wait. “Our residential offering is battery backup,” Bass said in an e-mail.

 

But the Powerwall product that has captured the public's imagination has a long way to go before it makes sense for most people. Even in Germany, where solar power is abundant and electricity prices are high, the economics of an average home with rooftop solar "are not significantly enhanced by including the Tesla battery," according to an analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

 

That won't stop homeowners from buying Tesla's new batteries. Germans are already buying storage systems by the thousands at significantly higher prices. In the U.S., the product's launch prompted a record day of inquiries from prospective new customers, according to SolarCity's Bass. "There's a tremendous amount of interest in backup power that's odorless, not noisy and completely clean," he said.

 

Tesla is probably making very little profit on the home batteries at this point and might even be selling them at a loss, according to research by BNEF. Both Tesla and SolarCity are just getting started, trying to get some traction before Tesla's massive $5 billion battery factory in Nevada begins production as early as next year. That's when the battery market really gets interesting."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/video-teslas-battery-doesnt-well-155540495.html

 

We live in exciting times where we can have our A/C running as well as our freezers and refrigerator, when all grid power fails, with an affordable to us propane generator and auto switch. Our system used to be a 10 day supply of continuous use. With the increased draw from the bigger motor and stator, we will only have a week's fuel for power. I bought a dedicated propane tank like you see powering mobile homes. Here we have village Nat. Gas, Electric, Cable Internet, landlines, and coming this year, sewer so I can use it or continue using our oxidation pond.

 

Anyway, as soon as I find out that Solar City has expanded to Louisiana, which they haven't yet, we will see about our solar leasing from them with backup generator only. When my sons retire they can take over and go off grid.

 

Utilities making selling back excess home or enterprise power cost us more will only hasten development of fully capable solar storage units, on which the R&D is almost done.

[RV_]

WDR,

Inner cities and apartment complexes will never be able to generate their own power. Even a billionaire's suite in the upscale apartment buildings on Park Avenue in New York City can't power more than ones family. Unlike factories and WalMart-like big box stores with large roofs that can make much or all with more efficient lighting and/or tools which can. So we will always need a grid. Like Germany, the ones who fight change get bankrupted. The utilities there who adapted and became part of the change are thriving. Some old fogies in business don't want to change. And they try to demonize them as bad, and priced so high that folks who can't get whatever it is will never admit they could not achieve it. (see fox and grapes below)

 

I tell local folks that make comments that it isn't cost effective up front to compare them to LED lighting. I remember the 12 volt lighting sucking down our two batteries in our 90s era fivers while boondocking. I also remember paying two to three bucks each on the rod and replacing them often. I just saw led sort white replacement interior bulbs that should lost longer than the RV as we won't be using it full time. $14.99 each, and that was at a dealer. I plan to replace them all a couple a month.

 

There is along term ROI on the better quality home bulbs, but we have not switched to them yet because we like our fluorescents. At some point we will begin replacing those too.

 

But let's face it. Most folks won't pay more for them. Others will just because they can and like tech toys like me. Those early adapters are who make things affordable to the rest of us.

 

Then there are the folks that get into cognitive dissonance when their beliefs disagree with their behaviors. Alsop and others have written about it for millennia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fox_and_the_Grapes

[wa_desert_rat]

I think that at this point in the technology the biggest barrier to grid defection isn't location or batteries but attitude. The typical American household squanders incredible amounts of electricity between incandescent lights, upright freezers, old style air conditioners (not heat pumps) and on and on. I'm not mentioning simple things like turning off things that aren't being used.

 

And the devices we do turn off don't actually turn off!

 

I full timed off the grid in 1982 with just 66 watts of solar panels. Granted, I was in the tropics with abundant... make that excessive... sunlight. But it was a long time ago and for 25 years afterwards we were told that it couldn't be done.

 

WDR

[Randyretired]

Colorado has a number of homes that are off grid. The one thing I have noticed is most are quick to connect to the grid as soon as it is available affordably. In fact the last 2 that I know sold their solar panels to help pay for the connection. New technology is getting better and the time may come but the hassles of living off grid just aren't worth to many.

[Jack Mayer]

I do not find much hassle from the energy perspective in off grid.But then my expectations are shaped by specifically orienting the structure to offgrid living. Really, you don't HAVE to use a lot of power these days if you design for that.

[RV_]

I hear that Jack!

 

Randy have you done Alaska yet?

 

WDR,

I agree very doable. BTW, what the heck is going on? We have been agreeing with each other entirely too much lately! Here's a raspberry There, that feels better.

[wa_desert_rat]

 

WDR,

I agree very doable. BTW, what the heck is going on? We have been agreeing with each other entirely too much lately! Here's a raspberry There, that feels better.

 

 

LOL... ya well we probably have a lot more in common than we do not in common. But that raspberry felt pretty good.

 

People want their freezers and their big air conditioners and if the grid is handy (and close enough) I can understand it. I can put about 15kw on my shop if I want to but my lake house is not aimed right so only about 2kw here. Moving in 2 years to the apartment in the shop though and since it will only be 600sq ft I think I can make at least the apartment side fully off-the-grid. Except maybe the clothes dryer and if the DW insists on one of those new washers that make steam.

 

But we really live pretty well in the motor home off the grid with the panels and I would never give them up. They are my security blanky.

 

People in apartments and condominiums are pretty much out of luck. But if the utilities start to cooperate more (as opposed to coming up with ways to fight it while appearing to cooperate) and we get microgrids then they can take advantage of my 15kw.

 

WDR

[Randyretired]

Each of these people shared their feelings after being off grid for a period of time. Things like having to mess with batteries or having to think about maybe using power tools after multiple cloudy days. Things like it is cold out and a battery fails and draws the whole system down. Then there is the economics. As I said when I looked into putting PV pannels on our house the numbers actually came out to 15 to 17 year ROI. Battery maintenance and expense just add to that. Now I am just telling what these peoples experience was. They are happy to be on the grid.

 

RV Alaska? I am not sure what you are saying. Are you suggesting that Alaska has the same advantages and disadvantages as Colorado?

 

I tend to believe people I know that have actual experience with this type of thing. I realize there are others that may not agree but there is a lot of evidence to suggest they are not in the minority. Real estate that is not on the grid is generally cheaper and much more difficult to sell. When I purchased some land to park my RV on I felt it was worth it to connect to the grid. Electric heat is just easier than filling propane tanks among other reasons. I am looking for another parcel of land in a new area and though I will consider off grid because of the area and price I too prefer on grid.

[wa_desert_rat]

I can understand their issues. They don't bother me at all but I understand how some people would have issues. I kinda like messing about with my system, watching the charge rate, etc. The RV's system is lots easier than on the sailboat where, because we were always at anchor (the ultimate boondock where you have to row ashore just so the dogs can pee), I had to reposition my whole 66-watt two-panel array periodically. I didn't even mind that much either. It means ice for the sundowners.

 

But better batteries - and cheaper (so you can have more at the same - or lower - price) would maybe eliminate a lot of their worry abut whether there is enough juice to do something.

 

My take on the grid is that I have absolutely no faith in utility companies keeping rates at a point where I would rather just deal with whatever issues I have to deal with for solar. It's not "free" power, after all. But when our particular PUD hires yet-another current employee's cousin for a $150,000 a year job I stress out.

 

But I have the grid and I can connect part of my shop to it. I might even do a grid-tie system but when they screw me (as I am pretty sure they will) I'll regret that.

 

Still... if you *can* get power without the grid that means that if you know how to do it you can pick up nice property cheap.

 

WDR

[Randyretired]

WDR We also have solar on our RV and I love that it let's us boon dock in remote places but when the grid is available we hook up. It is just easier and cheaper. I have been a customer of a lot of different utilities and I have argued with them probably as much as many. Lost some and won some but so far not enough problems to disconnect. So far!

[Jack Mayer]

I'd probably do a grid interactive setup just to have options, if I could. But not all people have the option (or choose to) live in an environment that allows solar to be the only source of power. And many people choose to have more energy usage than I would, and have a larger house. But if the Tesla batteries help advance things that is good for everyone.

[wa_desert_rat]

WDR We also have solar on our RV and I love that it let's us boon dock in remote places but when the grid is available we hook up. It is just easier and cheaper. I have been a customer of a lot of different utilities and I have argued with them probably as much as many. Lost some and won some but so far not enough problems to disconnect. So far!

I should explain that our PUD, when they installed Fiber, imported another Internet Provider to compete with the locals; but that provider was paid 110% of their expenses under a secret - and completely illegal - contract by our PUD. This drove at least 5 providers out of business. We managed to get 4 of the top managers fired but no one went to jail.

 

The PUD - which talked that outside provider into taking the money - had to sue that provider to get the money they practically fored onto them back.

 

We tried to sue in Federal Court for anti-trust but it was dismissed as a 9th decision said that municipalities cannot commit anti-trust; only the employees.

 

I was not a happy camper.

 

WDR

[Kirk W]

I think that at this point in the technology the biggest barrier to grid defection isn't location or batteries but attitude. The typical American household squanders incredible amounts of electricity between incandescent lights, upright freezers, old style air conditioners (not heat pumps) and on and on. I'm not mentioning simple things like turning off things that aren't being used.

You and I do agree on this. As a society we are very wasteful and I don't see much changing in that area anytime soon. I'm amazed how few people bother to turn off unused lights or other power wasters. Of course the self appointed experts will always disagree.

[Randyretired]

WDR Ouch! White collar chrime is a problem and the courts and law enforcement seem to have a number of excuses er reasons to turn a blind eye. I have a situation that I won't go into that I am skeptical that the justice system will even consider. It is a serious business crime but it will require a lot to prosecute. The crime is in the 6 figure range and while I would be upset if they don't do anything I won't be suprised. I am aware of a case bigger than ours that the DA refused to prosecute.

[RV_]

Randy, many of the RV parks, gas stations, villages and rest stops with amenities in and on the road in Alaska ran off of diesel gensets. But if you go up above to my post #25, and red those Alaska articles I linked to it becomes clear why I asked. It is a different world up there.

 

WDR is right about power use being very subjective. When we lived in Colombia we used little electricity. As adults we lived in Germany for seven years and had a one gallon water heater mounted on the wall over the sink. We learned to stretch it. Bathroom had a bigger instant water heater for the tub/shower that lasted as long as wanted, as long as you wanted no more than two minutes of hot water. They hang clothes out with few wanting indoor dryers. Homes rarely had air conditioning and were built of stone blocks and they were cold in summer!

[Darryl&Rita]

Just going to drop this here, and walk away whistling. Engadget article. Scroll down after reading the first article, there's some garbage fluff, but there's also some interesting reading.

[wa_desert_rat]

Just going to drop this here, and walk away whistling. Engadget article. Scroll down after reading the first article, there's some garbage fluff, but there's also some interesting reading.

LOL... I actually gasped at this. This is amazing stuff. I suppose it means that they've actually priced their batteries far too low. Great link, btw.

 

WDR

[wa_desert_rat]

Yet another pundit. This one thinks that Musk's batteries mean that utility companies are doomed.

 

http://www.iflscience.com/technology/tesla-battery-heralds-beginning-end-fossil-fuels

 

The utilities' current business model is pretty much doomed. I think that within 20 years they'll be providing power mostly for industry and maintaining the grid.

 

But the comments (which are closed) give a good representation of just how little most people understand about solar or Lithium batteries. Or electricity, for that matter.

 

WDR

[RV_]

See my new thread over on the Other topics forum. It's an expose of an Arizona utility making things up as they go. Of course folks who think anything that is renewable costs more and is less reliable. Then they start in about how they won't pay for it but forget they already are paying for the alternatives, and paying more!

 

Here's an article today that outlines Tesla's Powerwall costs.

 

Title: Let’s Get Straight: Tesla Powerwall DOES = $3,000

 

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/05/13/lets-get-straight-tesla-powerwall-does-3000/?utm_source=Cleantechnica+News&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=960b88bcc2-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_term=0_b9b83ee7eb-960b88bcc2-331970081

 

Good short article.

 

But I'd like to reiterate, my backup 15kw propane genset cost $6k after buying the propane tank, paying for the inside switch and breaker box to be installed, and paying for the propane hookup and testing, and lastly paying for the 200 gallons of propane.

 

But my 15kw Generac Guardian air cooled generator before installing cost $3000.00 at Home Depot, just like the Powerwall before installing. We have village utilities here including natural gas which heats and we cook with. But ng has less btus per cubic foot than propane. My genset on ng is 12.5kw. On propane 15kw. But it is marginal when lugging down from the four ton A/C unit. So we traded it in plus $5700 more for removal and installation of a water cooled 4 cylinder 25kw Auto switching generator. There is no ROI except the big smile when the outages happen and in storms that we have off grid electric if you will.

 

Some things are about lifestyle. And We are not waiting a year in line for a Powerwall,as living here with no A/C even for one day, is intolerable at 100° with high humidity.

 

A small solar system, only for charging the Powerwall as a backup, only for outages might be a small enough system to beat the initial price of mine in 2-5 years.

 

Then the only difference is all my fuel is free, unlike no where I am subject to propane or NG costs and fluctuations. Now if the price is only a thousand more, ROI is five years over my smaller system. Three likely fueling the bigger one. And yes, rural Louisiana has outages all the time.