The biggest risk in Google’s $1 billion bet on SpaceX

RV_ · January 21, 2015

This is opening up another disruptive technology. Investors need to be aware of this possibility, and I encourage you do a lot of reading on what's happening now in these vertical markets that are soon to be expanded to all.

I've been talking about Musk and Tesla here on this forum since 2003. One thread from 2011 covers my investment in Tesla, freely sharing announced timetables and ticking off each executed item on time or close enough. People ignored it, or called it a pump and dump. (Bill you weren't the first, another member from the start of these forums beat you to that back in 2003. I sure hope y'all didn't put your money where your mouth was and lost big shorting them.)

I never pretended to know anything about investing. Made no claims. Quoted no experts. Have no idea how to do a short, and don't want to learn.

But I can see where some things are inevitable. I've said them here and they've proved out. This has nothing to do with being right, but doing right. When I mention LEO satellites some folks roll their eyes and mutter about Iridium.

This news was not unexpected. We saw Google's satellite Internet guy form a company for just that, enlist Musk to develop and design the mini satellite, as designed under 250 pounds each. Bill Gates wanted to do this 12-14 years ago but he did not have a rocket scientist nor was one himself. Musk is.

Excerpt:

"Google is pinning its hopes for cheap, space-based Internet on Elon Musk. But can he deliver?

SpaceX confirmed Tuesday that it had raised $1 billion from Google and Fidelity — part of a larger effort by Google to spread the Internet to developing countries and crack open those markets. SpaceX is a natural choice for a partnership: Both it and Google share a fondness for "moonshot" projects and have explored how to provide Internet access to poor and rural areas. In November, Musk suggested that SpaceX was working on the idea; last week, the billionaire investor hosted a private event in Seattle to launch an office dedicated to satellite Internet.

Here's the problem for SpaceX, according to The Information: It doesn't have a license to use the spectrum it would need to actually beam the Internet down to the masses. If it can't get the spectrum, and if the laser option doesn't pan out, SpaceX will have a tough time developing a sufficiently robust satellite network. But if can secure some spectrum rights, SpaceX could combine its manufacturing prowess and its space know-how in ways that Google could only dream of. And that's why Google appears so bullish on SpaceX right now."

Much more in the article here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2015/01/20/the-biggest-risk-in-googles-rumored-1-billion-bet-on-spacex/

I will remind everyone here that I have repeatedly said that when SpaceX IPOs, buy! Again, that may be a while, Musk tends to produce and execute before letting anyone invest. He had two years of Roadsters sold out from 2008-2010, and settling on the factory location, before he had Tesla go public.

So put it together for yourself. Musk has a solar installation company that went public, a supercar company that went public, and a rocket company that today, is the only manufacturer of heavy lift rocket engines and one of a few manufacturers of space vehicles in the US, and the only launch company that does not rely on Russian engines.

Google has the deepest pockets in the tech sector. And the most influence. They also disrupted libraries, research media, scientific knowledge sharing worldwide, and tracked us all long before Uncle Sam did.

All each person reading this needs to do is extrapolate what industries will be part of that push, the battery demand (all auto and truck manufacturers, all solar producers, installers, and power utilities,) cheap gigabit Internet, media streaming, and voice (Telcos, cable operators, mobile phone manufacturers, modem and router manufacturers, computer etc.,) and space launches for military, civilian, and interplanetary missions.

The opportunities to get in at ground level are there if you look. And Tesla won't be the only big one for investors. Many folks will jump at illusions when the real thing is coming faster.

Enjoy!

RV_ · January 22, 2015

Gates tried it in the 90s but he wasn't a rocket scientist and neither was Craig McCaw another of my early tech heroes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teledesic

He was trying again a year and a half ago in July 2013: http://venturebeat.com/2013/07/09/kymeta-50-million/

What they needed was to raise billions as Google is putting up and have a Musk to spin designs and execute them and refine them in short order from pure genius, mixed liberally with monster cojones. Gotta love 'em!

RV_ · January 22, 2015

Like I said, they are where investors want to be. Look at the players buying a piece before it goes public. When it does, don't say you didn't know what was coming.

Excerpt:

"The private space tech maker confirmed on Tuesday that it has raised another $1 billion in venture capital.

That reportedly pegs the Elon Musk-helmed business with a roughly $10 billion valuation, according to the Wall Street Journal.

SpaceX specified in a brief statement on Tuesday that it would be using the funding for "continued innovation in the areas of space transport, reusability, and satellite manufacturing."

That memo also revealed two new high-profile backers: Google and Fidelity, which together will own "just under 10 percent" of SpaceX.

The Internet giant and global financial services firm, respectively, join existing investors Founders Fund, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, Valor Equity Partners and Capricorn.

Although once thought as perhaps just a pipe dream, Musk announced via Twitter earlier this month that he would be working on the development of his Hyperloop proposal for supersonic-like high-speed rail transportation."

That article is here: http://www.zdnet.com/article/spacex-raised-another-1b-amid-new-investments-from-google-fidelity/?tag=nl.e539&s_cid=e539&ttag=e539&ftag=TRE17cfd61