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Are You Still In?

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OOPS! Mine. Pasted the wrong one. Thanks Duke! Editing now. Try it again in half a minute. It is very good and right on with what I see as folks thinking they are doing right, and doing the opposite. The example dialogues below it and charts would be funny if they weren't so true. ;)

Edited by RV

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This just in on my one stock pick to invest in, I let the funds be managed by the USAA managers. It is the upgrades and downgrades history from Robert W. Baird (today,) Dougherty & Company, and Deutsche Bank (in the last month) and all "suddenly" discovering them in August and September 2010 with these advisories that haven't changed now or last year. Note that there were no previous ones:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=TSLA

 

I have followed them since 2003 and long since stopped trying to explain their perfect biz plan, and that all that is scaring some was part of the plan and announced last year, to others. The ones that said they never would go into production here were wrong, the ones in the press were wrong, and the big three are wrong in trying to make part electric or all electric compact cars with poor performance and luxury car prices, as their sales have shown. 800 some sold for one and under 200 of the other sold. While Tesla sits on deposits for 5300 Model S luxury cars that comptete with the higher priced BMWs and Mercedes in that class, in both performance, luxury, and seating, and already are testing the betas and inviting those with reservations for a ride in them at the New Tesla Manufacturing plant in California in in a few weeks. The writers are just starting to write about them based on more than hearsay in the last three months and I still see some that are reading the specs of the leaf and posting them as the performance and miles per charge of the Tesla. :lol: If you want the real skinny go to teslamotors.com and see for yourself. The market cycle always turns even if slower than normal. I had to tell my SH that it will tank when they are between production models and not selling the roadster but not delivering the Model S, and that we will hold then when all panic around us. We will sell sometime after the model S is delivered, or decide to hold longer depending on the plans for the SUV and how the Daimler electric smart goes with their battteries, the Toyota RAV 4 electrics with their drive trains,and make that decision then. In the meantime enjoying the ride, and perhaps even buying more if the buy opportunity is too good to resist. The time to hope that my stock tanks again (buy opportuniy)will come again as long as most others are panicking and driving it up and down. They have showrooms globally and cars globally that are breaking speed and endurance records for both electric cars and in performance against traditional ICE vehicles.

 

Did I mention that I like them? ;) Is it a risk? Of course! Don't do it because of me. I am the least experienced in these things in this thread.

Edited by RV

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The cracks in the "world financial system" keep forming (see the links just from today's financial news). From my limited experience as a carpenter when you patch the cracks in plaster walls but don't fix the structural problems that are at fault, the cracks and even new ones keep coming back. But carpentry is so much easier to do than economics. Just ask Ben! He is probably wishing he was a carpenter about now. :)

 

China shuns Europe

 

Consumer Confidence Lowest Since 2009

 

Euro Crisis Mounts

 

Too-Big-To-Fail...or Not?

 

World on Eve of Next Financial Crisis

 

Nothing to cheer about John

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Just like in 2008 the market seems to find courage/hope at the "big round numbers" like 11,000 and probably again at 10,000 (although 12,000 flew by). It seems to take a major piece of bad news to break through these "courage/hope producers." It isn't hard to imagine future financial events that will do the job.

 

Even though the Dow swings above and below are getting bigger and bigger, 11,000 is truly the magical number these days. Of course, magic is not what I want to base my investing decisions on so I continue to sit on the sidelines. But at least I am getting more than a few laughs at the rumors about European magical fixes that help (as intended) to hold the line at the magical 11,000. Just like with

I don't put my money on these rumors or even on the almost monthly sleight-of-hand bailouts.

 

Cheers John

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Just one opinion. Now is not the time to be sitting on the sidelines. There is a ton of money to be made with these repeated wild fluctuations. There are many ETF choices that allow for some quick and solid returns without the huge risks associated with some single stock purchases.

 

Example, 2000 shares of VTI purchased on Monday 9/26 for $58.10 and limit sold today on the 27th at $60.65. Now just waiting for some more news that shakes confidence to repeat. There are many choices for stocks and bonds other than just VTI.

 

Money is losing value with CDs and Money Markets so IMO you need to do something. This current volatile market allows for repeated purchases and sales almost each week.

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Just one opinion. Now is not the time to be sitting on the sidelines. There is a ton of money to be made with these repeated wild fluctuations. There are many ETF choices that allow for some quick and solid returns without the huge risks associated with some single stock purchases.

 

Example, 2000 shares of VTI purchased on Monday 9/26 for $58.10 and limit sold today on the 27th at $60.65. Now just waiting for some more news that shakes confidence to repeat. There are many choices for stocks and bonds other than just VTI.

 

Money is losing value with CDs and Money Markets so IMO you need to do something. This current volatile market allows for repeated purchases and sales almost each week.

I am not a trader at heart, but more importantly all our savings/retirement funds are either 403b or IRA funds and trading is virtually prohibited (not more than quarterly in most of them). But it must be an exciting time for those who can be traders!

 

At least this trader is excited

. Edited by mcbockalds

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Do not watch this if you have a weak heart. Recession Is Here

 

A comment on the video by economist John Hussman:

 

The way you spot a thoughtful economist, in my view, is to listen for an understanding of both data analysis and equilibrium. In our experience, most economists and Wall Street analysts seem to analyze the economy as what I'd call a "flow of anecdotes" - weekly unemployment claims did this, retail sales did that, we got a positive surprise here, and so forth, without putting that information into any real structure and without knowing which data points actually matter or in what combination. In contrast, good economists think about the economy as a system - where multiple sectors interact. We tend to use words like "equilibrium" and "syndrome" when we talk about economic data - emphasizing that the best signals involve a whole conformation of evidence, not one or two indicators, where the data - in combination - captures a particular signature of recession or recovery. Look at how Achuthan described the situation on CNBC on Friday, and you'll see a good example of this sort of thinking.

 

Edited...I just finished reading John Hussman's whole article and it is too good not to reference Recession, Restructuring.

 

Still not in and still not getting in.

 

Cheers John

Edited by mcbockalds

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Do not watch this if you have a weak heart. Recession Is Here

 

Still not in and still not getting in.

 

Cheers John

 

The one thing I see missing in all these predictions, is what I believe to be a real possibility, and that is the current economic conditions may be the new norm,as I dont see anything on the horizon that is going to drastically change things.

 

Paul

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Just like in 2008 the market seems to find courage/hope at the "big round numbers" like 11,000 and probably again at 10,000 (although 12,000 flew by). It seems to take a major piece of bad news to break through these "courage/hope producers." It isn't hard to imagine future financial events that will do the job.

 

On the other hand a bit of good news, no matter how thin, can sure take the market up.

 

Cheers John

 

 

I am starting to believe DOW 11,000 (a "big round number") is somehow more powerful than even I had guessed. It appears that it will take a mighty powerful piece of bad news to break through its support, as it continues to be able to suck the DOW back up to 11,000 with any piece of hope leaked out of Europe or even a slightly better than expected report of the ISM index. Just how good was the ISM? David Rosenberg noted this today:

 

• The ISM’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 53 in September — exactly where it was in November 2007.

 

• ISM manufacturing was 51.6 last month — where it was in November 2007.

 

Recession began a month later.

 

Cheers John

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The cracks in the "world financial system" keep forming (see the links just from today's financial news). From my limited experience as a carpenter when you patch the cracks in plaster walls but don't fix the structural problems that are at fault, the cracks and even new ones keep coming back. But carpentry is so much easier to do than economics. Just ask Ben! He is probably wishing he was a carpenter about now. :)

 

China shuns Europe

 

Consumer Confidence Lowest Since 2009

 

Euro Crisis Mounts

 

Too-Big-To-Fail...or Not?

 

World on Eve of Next Financial Crisis

 

Nothing to cheer about John

 

 

 

I'm cheering and very glad I'm "all in".

 

"The Dow is up 12% in October, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have surged more than 13%. The gains are the best since January 1987 for the Dow, since October 1974 for the S&P 500, and since October 2002 for the Nasdaq.

 

For the week, all three indexes ended up more than 3.5%, as investors pumped more money into stock mutual funds than bond funds for the first time since mid-September, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch research.

 

All three indexes are also in positive territory for the year. The Dow is up more than 5%, the S&P 500 is 2% higher and the Nasdaq has climbed 3%."

 

 

 

 

ed

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Guest cindona

I'm cheering and very glad I'm "all in".

 

"The Dow is up 12% in October, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have surged more than 13%. The gains are the best since January 1987 for the Dow, since October 1974 for the S&P 500, and since October 2002 for the Nasdaq.

 

For the week, all three indexes ended up more than 3.5%, as investors pumped more money into stock mutual funds than bond funds for the first time since mid-September, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch research.

 

All three indexes are also in positive territory for the year. The Dow is up more than 5%, the S&P 500 is 2% higher and the Nasdaq has climbed 3%."

 

 

 

 

ed

 

What would you say is the reason for the huge upswing in the market?

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What would you say is the reason for the huge upswing in the market?

 

Don't know.

 

It would seem the world of investors doesn't think Armageddon is at hand. Perhaps the tens of millions of investors that make up the worlds stock markets,believe the problems, very significant problems I might add, are manageable, and that by this time next year, most of the economic problems will have been dealt with.

 

The roller coaster rides are surely not behind us for the next 8-12 months but if you are a long term investor, as I am, these big swings are nothing to be concerned about and, in fact, might just make good buying opportunities. I don't much care about tomorrows market gyrations because I truly believe that all these economic problems can be solved. Plus over the long haul, there are very few options to the stock market for rate of return.

 

Besides, I made a few good moves when the DOW was about 11,000 so I'm playing with "found" money. If it dips that low again, no loss to me. I'll just hang in there until the DOW hits 13,000 once again. When? My guess is by mid 2013.

 

Ed.

The optimist :)

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Amen Ed.

The world isn't ending tomorrow. It ends in 2012. :lol: I have been buying what I could ever since this downturn started in 2007/8. I am standing pretty much pat now as you are, although only one stock. My main investments that I was buying hard and heavy were funds we stay in, and our property etc.

Edited by RV

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There are two absolutes in investing myths.

1. This time it is different.

2. The total collapse is imminent.

 

But there is an even better absolute that no one talks about.

On average there is a recession about every 6 years or so.

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And a recovery every five years or so, six this time most likely, as well. It is a cycle and when you buy at the trough, then sell at the peak, it does not involve any shorts or math formulas, you usually make money. I guess most folks today are looking for get rich quick. All I know is that you are either paying interest, collecting interest, or disinterested. ;)

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[quote name=Ed6713' timestamp='1320022992' post='496895'

 

Perhaps the tens of millions of investors that make up the worlds stock markets,believe the problems, very significant problems I might add, are manageable, and that by this time next year, most of the economic problems will have been dealt with.

 

 

 

It would seem that Merkel of Germany does not share the possibility that "by this time next year, most of the economic problems will have been dealt with." While she certainly is not sounding any alarms - just the opposite - I can't quite believe her optimism that for the next ten years world economies can get along just fine while the debt problems are resolved in an orderly fashion. On the other hand, I don't expect her to say anything different.

 

To look at one month, the best month, in a long time and figure that one's portfolio is something to cheer about is a bit of a short term view. Just as it is a short term view to be discouraged after a huge one month downturn in one's portfolio. Isn't this obvious to everyone?

 

Cheers John

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http://seekingalpha.com/article/305509-2-option-trades-to-consider-for-monday?source=yahoo

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/305821-alternative-energy-picks-from-the-world-s-largest-money-managers?source=yahoo

 

From last week

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/tesla-motors-third-quarter-loss-widens-to-65-1-million.html?cmpid=yhoo

 

Although I anticipated a big drop in price when the Roadster goes out of production and sales any month now, and the start of delivery of the Model S which is already sold out, the news about the newest deal with Daimler, and reiterations about the deals with Panasonic and Toyota. Daimler which already invested and bought first refusal if they ever sell the company back in 2009 or 2010, has announced that Tesla is going to make a drivetrain for a Mercedes Benz car as well as the Smart car. So the price drop it appears, is not going to happen. I would buy more at any price under 23 but perhaps it won't be at that price ever again.

 

So there are still tremendous opportunities out there right now, but they always are better when the market is down for individual mid term and long term investors. Knowing which stocks to buy is the rub right? This was my first actual stock purchase as I let the experts manage my funds. It will probably be my last as my funds and property are doing as well too, just not as rapidly up as Tesla.

Edited by RV

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OK so let's talk making money in the market with a sustainable market portfolio segment for those that do more than one stock like me. (The market as in buying individual stocks, not funds. MY one stock venture into the market myself is only my hedge because of low interest rates on my liquid assets.) There are many more reasons to invest in sustainable and renewable energy industries than that they are trendy, or green, or perceived as politically correct. Us middle-roaders and non tree-huggers are looking hard and heavy at the greener industries because they are emerging and will grow. Ergo make money. So what are some of the analysts and investment people saying about it that aren't suffering from media glossy eyes "I believe anything negative the oil lobbyists put in the press today" people who panic at the drop of a hat?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/307014-post-solyndra-clean-tech-is-alive-and-growing?source=yahoo

 

Excerpt from the above:

"What does this mean to consumers and investors? Clean tech has become too indispensable to a diverse set of stakeholders, which includes governments, large corporations and a huge segment of the population which stands to benefit from alternatives to a monolithic carbon based future. Contrary to the naysayers, who point to Solyndra with exhortations of “I told you so,” the industry is building a foundation for growth that may be the lead story for the current century in which we live."

 

2013 should be about the right time to evaluate my holding or selling Tesla. And just about the right time to use the knowledge I am gaining about the major com0anies mentioned in that article, and their technologies and niche differences.

Edited by RV

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To look at one month, the best month, in a long time and figure that one's portfolio is something to cheer about is a bit of a short term view. Just as it is a short term view to be discouraged after a huge one month downturn in one's portfolio. Isn't this obvious to everyone?

 

Cheers John

 

Not obvious to me.

 

Here are my two personal favorite investments for times like this:

PRPFX Year-to-date: +6.96%

VDC: Year-to-date: +7.40%

 

I'm sure not setting the world on fire, but sure beats stuffing the cash under the mattress.

 

Ed

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Not obvious to me.

 

 

Ed

 

Well, we have established one thing, we disagree.

 

And I don't have too much money under the mattress, but 24% return YTD on our US long term treasuries bond fund is nice. Note, it is always easy to pick out one or two parts of one's portfolio to highlight...it proves nothing in general, so I seldom do it, but just this once seemed right.

 

 

Cheers John

Edited by mcbockalds

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Ed the old kkeeping it under a mattress is no longer the only way to lose money by holding it. Having it liquid in savings is the same thing today at the low rates offered, if you want to call rapes rates.:lol:

 

I invested for the first time myself in TSLA and bought first few shares just after IPO Aug 2010 @ 17. More @ 22.5 Mar 2011. Final block @ 22.5 Aug 2011. Last Friday close 33.64 = +49.51 % YTD. Factoring the earlier 2010 shares makes it more but only enough to make it 50%.

 

So I made just over 50% had I sold Friday. But I didn't and won't until the Model S and perhaps 2013.

 

I can't make or lose anything in the market if I don't buy. I won't make or lose anything until I sell what I bought. My feeling is to hold until after the Model S debuts and quite possibly until they are completely in the black in 2013. There is no short explanation for that. But anybody can find my reasoning by reading every blog from the website and everything published online which would fill several books. I was interested enough to have done all that reading as it was written and before most even knew they existed.

 

All of that does not give me much of an edge on knowing in advance when to sell to most advantage. I don't presume to know anything about the market. I was just tired of not making anything with the way under 1% interest on my liquid assets. Had the same insight towards Apple at 55 in 2005 and did not act on my feelings then. Having even stronger feelings about the future of Tesla I finally jumped into buying individual stocks and would be horrified if anybody followed my lead and lost any money. Nor could I take any credit for making it as Tesla is making it for me.

 

However, even though my tiny investment may mean nothing to them in terms of my investment making or breaking them, it means more to me to invest in a company I believe in more than just for dollars and cents. Making a lot of money is a big bonus.

I am a realist. Some investments make a lot of sense. Others make little cents. And others just make scents. ;)

 

Stocks are just a teeny tiny part of my overall holdings and investments. Or I should say stock, because I am not qualified to delve into investigating multiple stocks for myself. Nor want to be. If the experts really were we would not have had an unforeseen crash. Each of them would be batting 1000.

We are looking hard and heavy for rental properties right now that are fire sales as single family residences

Edited by RV

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I finally jumped into buying individual stocks and would be horrified if anybody followed my lead and lost any money.

 

And I too would be horrified if anyone thinks I am recommending buying US long term treasuries now. Now is the time to be selling! The only way safely "to cheer" about a 24% return YTD is to take it...we are. We now only have a token amount in the fund to keep it open.

 

Cheers john

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I will say that from a money making not a tree hugger perspective the clean energy markets are IMHO goi8ng to provide terrific opportunities to those that take the time to really look at what is happening now. Especially after the Solyndra fiasco. There are some amazing opportunities there but I have to wait for now. However about private industry being all in to clean energy tech the NY times had a great and insightful article today about the sector:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/12/business/energy-environment/a-cornucopia-of-help-for-renewable-energy.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2

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