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Just a suggestion for you investors out there might be to read "The Lazy Person's Guide to Investing" by Paul B. Farrell, JD., PHD., columnist, CBS Marketwatch, 2004. While the numbers ($) are out of date the concepts are not. Basically what he says is that the best outcomes on investments are those that buy indexed funds to the market, 60/40 mix, hand's off, and reposition once a year. He has worked the statistics for past years markets to come to these conclusions.

He might be right. Or not.

 

PS. Every year we have taken out the MRD (usually in January) from hubby's 401K we have made the MRD back and MORE during the rest of the year!!!!

Even in 2001 and 2002 and 2008?

 

Cheers John

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

The best things in life aren't things.

Avatar: Padre Island National Seashore, TX

2008 17' Taylor Coach, Lightweight Trailer, 2050lb Dryweight (axles and tongue)

2007 Chevy 1/2 ton, Reg Cab, 8' Bed, 4.8L, 2WD, 3.23 Lock. Diff., Highway: 25 MPG Solo, 15-16 MPG Towing

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He might be right. Or not.

 

 

Even in 2001 and 2002 and 2008?

 

Cheers John

 

John, this thread goes back to August, 2011. You have quoted from, or referenced, lots of your personal favorite "experts" and advised us of good "sell opportunities". Were any of your favorites correct about the outcome of the stock market for 2012?

 

I'll go with the long term, balanced investment view. For most, but surely not all, years that will turn out to be a very wise investment strategy.

 

Enjoyed a nice, profitable 2012.

 

I'm predicting a rather modest return for 2013. Will be happy to see 5%-6% for the year(sure beats 0.05% for a CD). My guess sees the S&P 500 at 1,500 by year end. Time will tell.

 

Enjoy your 2013 travels.

 

Ed

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Were any of your favorites correct about the outcome of the stock market for 2012?

 

I'll go with the long term,

Ed

Do I see a double standard (short vs long) in your post if I highlight the above portion?

 

I imagine some of the "experts" I quoted would like to point out that investing is a long term, many years, even lifetime process. Some years are good and some bad with most probably in between.

 

It is the long term result that finally determines how well our investments do and I really do hope that we all do well in the long run. In the mean time we are all likely to disagree about which strategies are best. Of course that is mostly because best is going to be defined differently by each one of us and rightly so. Not everyone defines best as the highest return.

 

Different attitudes toward risk, volatility, liquidity, are some factors that affect one's definition of best return. Other more personal factors are: age, taxes, family member relationships, money vs other goals......I suppose the list ends somewhere.

 

I don't picture investing like a football game which ends when the clock runs out (Dec. 31, 2012) and the team with the most points wins and the other team loses. Perhaps it is more like a life long dance party where each person/couple decides when to dance and how to dance and how often to dance while realizing that others are making their own decisions on how to best enjoy the dance. Each person/couple may try to explain why they dance the way they do and even recommend it to others without suggesting that their way of dancing is the best way for everyone to dance.

 

This thread has been fun for me to follow and participate in because I have seen it as a chance to explain why I currently dance a particular way or only dance at particular times or for only so long. I also enjoy reading about others way of dancing especially when it is explained. I don't think my way of dancing (or those of my dance teachers, "experts") is the only or even best way to dance for everyone. I have, however, reacted negatively when accused of doing so and when others seem to be doing so.

 

If someone thinks I or someone else doesn't know much about dancing because we weren't dancing to the music in 2012, well lets hope we all like the music better in the future.

 

Cheers John

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

The best things in life aren't things.

Avatar: Padre Island National Seashore, TX

2008 17' Taylor Coach, Lightweight Trailer, 2050lb Dryweight (axles and tongue)

2007 Chevy 1/2 ton, Reg Cab, 8' Bed, 4.8L, 2WD, 3.23 Lock. Diff., Highway: 25 MPG Solo, 15-16 MPG Towing

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Guest Connie B.

John,

 

I realize I wasn't clear about the MRD distribution years. We have taken out the MRD in 2010,2011,2012.

 

Connie B.

 

Added Jan 25, 2013. And now have taken out 2013 MRD and 401K is working on replacing that amount.

Edited by Connie B.
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  • 3 weeks later...

Tesla moving ahead nicely. :D

RV/Derek
http://www.rvroadie.com Email on the bottom of my website page.
Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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We need a note from Chicken Little to bring you back to earth. Don't you know it is all ready to crash?

 

Hussman is reportedly being featured on an upcoming episode of Doomsday Preppers... he is going underground.

 

My money maker has been NFLX and I am smiling now too. On my third trading round with this in the last few years...

Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

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Hey Ken, no chicken little's here. Some folks really believe that and are as flabbergasted that we don't. Hey it is not 12:00 here but if I keep saying it is eventually, twice a day I will be right. It isn't that people are chicken little, it is that if they believe they can make money they will. If the believe they can't, they are right. I don't think less of those I disagree with in anything. I just do my thing.

RV/Derek
http://www.rvroadie.com Email on the bottom of my website page.
Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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To try to offset the excited exuberance, here is a rather frightful prophetic set of emotions posted way back in April 2000 (by John Hussman). I clearly remember back then a couple of scenes where grown husbands and wives, crying in public, were telling friends or family members what happened to their stock portfolios...it still wrenches my guts just to remember them.

 

 

"This is my retirement money. I can't afford to be out of the market anymore!"

"I don't care about the price, just Get Me In!!"

"It's a healthy correction"

"See, it's already coming back, better buy more before the new highs"

"Alright, a retest. Add to the position - buy the dip"

"What a great move! Am I a genius or what?"

"Uh oh, another sell-off. Well, we're probably close to a bottom"

"New low? What's going on?!!"

"Alright, it's too late to sell here, I'll get out on the next rally"

"Hey!! It's coming back. Glad that's over!"

"Another new low. But how much lower can it go?"

"No, really, how much lower can it go?"

"Good Grief! How much lower can it go?!?"

"There's no way I'll ever make this back!"

"This is my retirement money. I can't afford to be in the market anymore!"

"I don't care about the price, just Get Me Out!!"

 

Cheers John :(

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

The best things in life aren't things.

Avatar: Padre Island National Seashore, TX

2008 17' Taylor Coach, Lightweight Trailer, 2050lb Dryweight (axles and tongue)

2007 Chevy 1/2 ton, Reg Cab, 8' Bed, 4.8L, 2WD, 3.23 Lock. Diff., Highway: 25 MPG Solo, 15-16 MPG Towing

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Good one, John. ;)

 

I still have a fair amount out. I have some "really long term" money in. Perhaps I'm losing an opportunity. But I do not trust this market - there are too many fundamental things wrong, and since I am no longer a "trader" I'm not playing market changes.

Jack & Danielle Mayer #60376 Lifetime Member
Living on the road since 2000

PLEASE no PM's. Email me. jackdanmayer AT gmail
2016 DRV Houston 44' 5er (we still have it)
2022 New Horizons 43' 5er
2016 Itasca 27N 28' motorhome 
2019 Volvo 860, D13 455/1850, 236" wb, I-Shift, battery-based APU
No truck at the moment - we use one of our demo units
2016 smart Passion, piggyback on the truck
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
See our website for info on New Horizons 5th wheels, HDTs as tow vehicles, communications on the road, and use of solar power
www.jackdanmayer.com
Principal in RVH Lifestyles. RVH-Lifestyles.com

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But I do not trust this market - there are too many fundamental things wrong, and since I am no longer a "trader" I'm not playing market changes.

I do not often post stuff by Schiff, because I think he often goes "over the top," but here he is scaring me without going over the top, IMO.

 

Cheers John

John & Karen "1/3 - timers"

 

The best things in life aren't things.

Avatar: Padre Island National Seashore, TX

2008 17' Taylor Coach, Lightweight Trailer, 2050lb Dryweight (axles and tongue)

2007 Chevy 1/2 ton, Reg Cab, 8' Bed, 4.8L, 2WD, 3.23 Lock. Diff., Highway: 25 MPG Solo, 15-16 MPG Towing

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Guys,

I agree that things are volatile. I am in funds for a percentage in managed monies via USAA investments branch, a company I own a part of. Part in real estate, and even better the acreage I live on. I have a serious, but not bank breaking long term in one stock. I expect it to bring similar rewards as Google and Apple have for their early investors. But you never know.

 

I have never understood the folks who think that they can trade and compete with the guys that have enough money to buy a million, and then sell it a few minutes later, and then buy it again a few minutes after that and not worry about the three day wait imposed on the rest of us. I also don't think most have the temperament for it. They panic easier than a herd of deer come upon a man in their woods. That does not make the economist or the opposite better in any way. I have never seen a statistic harm anybody except for college students with a final exam. Statistics are always behind, looks back, telling how things happened, not how they will happen. I have learned that if the company and the leader is solid and believers themselves, not just in for five years and doing the same old trick only to pull their golden parachute and worse keep repeating that regardless of the losses they caused, that they will always be the one to buy when all else panic.

 

If the past is such a good indicator, then the performance of Tesla always inching back up and never failing to produce more than rumors, says they will never fail. IT can't be both ways. That negative statistics of the past foretell the future but positive ones don't. I agree though. Had I lost money in the last 2007-2008 financial crash, I would have financial PTSD too. As it stood I had all of my income to buy, not sell my funds, and later in 2010 when they IPO'd, Tesla.

RV/Derek
http://www.rvroadie.com Email on the bottom of my website page.
Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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This thread reminds me of the supposed RV experts....

 

"I have never understood the folks who think that they can trade and compete with the guys that have enough money to buy a million, and then sell it a few minutes later, and then buy it again a few minutes after that and not worry about the three day wait imposed on the rest of us"

 

WTF are you talking about???? Do you know anything about investing? I can move in and out of stocks as often as I like as long as I have enough to back the purchase in brokerage or have set up a margin. I don't have to wait three days. Stick to what you know and don't put down investing or trading that others seem appropriate. I don't do all day trading. Some stocks and funds are held for several days to several weeks. I always follow a buy with a limit order and stop...sometimes raising both if the trend is positive. And yes, I have long term investments as well.

 

Your Tesla stock is doing fine...not great. There are many more stocks that have better returns to date without the speculative risk. You might be fine but you might not... Why not take some profits and invest in something less risky unless you like Casino investing.

 

And I don't think folks need someone like Hussman's old BS "To try to offset the excited exuberance". That guy had one lucky run hedging the 2000 run-up. His more recent handling (3 - 5 years in a row) of investors' money in his Strategic Growth has been dismal losses. There is not a positive comment on his fund performance on the message boards.

 

Most of the investors / traders I speak with regularly are taking a cautious approach right now....not buying at the high and sitting on some cash to take advantage if there is a big dip. CL keeps referring to 2000 as the benchmark. Lots of folks invested well before 2000. Money put in the market in 1985, 1990, 1995 did just fine even with the corrections. Only fools sold during the dips. And some folks took advantage of or were lucky enough to be able to invest during the dips in 2002 and 2008. Their returns are pretty solid if they just held on.

Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

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RV: " I have learned that if the company and the leader is solid and believers themselves, not just in for five years and doing the same old trick only to pull their golden parachute and worse keep repeating that regardless of the losses they caused, that they will always be the one to buy when all else panic."

 

This is about the same as what Buffet does. If you take a look at the companies when he initially bought them, he relied on their management. Some companies he bought after only a few days of back checking. Most cases, the management was kept intact. (He also owns Forest River which he bought with only a few days of due diligence).

 

MbnKen: "Your Tesla stock is doing fine...not great." I am not sure what you 'FINE not Great' is but at 28 percent which now is my return on Tesla. Sure I could sell it, but what would I buy that has a return of that much?

Edited by TheDuke
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MbnKen: "Your Tesla stock is doing fine...not great." I am not sure what you 'FINE not Great' is but at 28 percent which now is my return on Tesla. Sure I could sell it, but what would I buy that has a return of that much?

 

I'm not saying it is bad to hold if it is part of an overall diversified portfolio. Based on my type of investing, I would have sold out 10 months ago when it was at the 38 peak. You could have bought it again on a dip since then without having your money tied up for nearly a year just to have it get back to where it is today. Yes it might go higher from this point...but who knows? I find that even solid companies are subject to forces out of their control or sometimes a financial or quality issue that shakes the confidence of investors. And I am certainly not gong to tell you what to buy instead. You will have to do your own research there...but there are some interesting choices out there if you trade. BTW, didn't you say some time ago that you took some profits off the table on this stock? If so.....smart thinking.

 

Personally I do not care what someone does in investing or not. It is just an irritant when someone who obviously has no investing background (does not even know how to place a standing order to "buy a block of stock at $22.xx" missing the opportunity) who needs to judge others investing methods. Intolerance in my opinion. I never put down his style (or lack of it) in investing until he started putting down others.

 

Then there's Chicken Little who spews constant doom and gloom on this board. An analogy... think about the subject of Heavy Duty Trucks. What if CL constantly wrote about all the negatives, dangers, and lack of intelligence behind having a HDT? I bet some folks would just say Shut Up. In my opinion, if you don't want an HDT (or want to invest or trade) fine... but don't disparage those who want to speak about the topic and share ideas...with a steady stream of one sided drivel.

Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

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Then there's Chicken Little who spews constant doom and gloom on this board. An analogy... think about the subject of Heavy Duty Trucks. What if CL constantly wrote about all the negatives, dangers, and lack of intelligence behind having a HDT? I bet some folks would just say Shut Up. In my opinion, if you don't want an HDT (or want to invest or trade) fine... but don't disparage those who want to speak about the topic and share ideas...with a steady stream of one sided drivel.

 

Since you refer to the HDT example in that fashion I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that you are referring to me.

 

First of all, I don't post on this topic much at all. If I'm spewing doom and gloom, I guess I'm not doing it very effectively since I have about 6 posts. I move the money that is my active "living" money in and out of the market as I see fit. As I've said, I was mostly out for a time. My long term money stays in at all times, but is shifted around as appropriate. Appropriate, in MY eyes.

Jack & Danielle Mayer #60376 Lifetime Member
Living on the road since 2000

PLEASE no PM's. Email me. jackdanmayer AT gmail
2016 DRV Houston 44' 5er (we still have it)
2022 New Horizons 43' 5er
2016 Itasca 27N 28' motorhome 
2019 Volvo 860, D13 455/1850, 236" wb, I-Shift, battery-based APU
No truck at the moment - we use one of our demo units
2016 smart Passion, piggyback on the truck
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
See our website for info on New Horizons 5th wheels, HDTs as tow vehicles, communications on the road, and use of solar power
www.jackdanmayer.com
Principal in RVH Lifestyles. RVH-Lifestyles.com

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Sorry Jack, I did not mean any reference to you at all... just tried to pick a subject that not all subscribe to. Actually I think what you guys are doing is very positive. I certainly like larger rigs and the one you have is top shelf. The only way to play in that arena is with a HDT. Again my apologies.

Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

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This thread reminds me of the supposed RV experts....

 

"I have never understood the folks who think that they can trade and compete with the guys that have enough money to buy a million, and then sell it a few minutes later, and then buy it again a few minutes after that and not worry about the three day wait imposed on the rest of us"

 

WTF are you talking about???? Do you know anything about investing?

 

Ken,

Actually, I don't know anything about investing. I never wtf'd anybody as a put down. I also never put on airs, or put down someone who knew less than me in something I do know.

 

Then you went on to say:

" It is just an irritant when someone who obviously has no investing background. . ."

 

ROTFLMAO!

 

Let me tell you what I consider an irritant. When someone jumps into a thread that is many pages long and completely assumes he understands another. Go to this thread's first page and read my post there where I say with my first post that I know nothing about investing. And if you are curious scan each page as I reiterate that I consider myself the least experienced and knowledgeable person posting. However as everyone who HAS read the whole thread to understand what went on before knows, unlike your post, I make no pretense of being better, smarter, knowing more than another, or attempting to denigrate someone by saying they don't even know the basics, well, I am grinning from ear to ear right now. Here is page one for you. It is how you become qualified to know that it is rather difficult for me to take anything you say seriously. See, it is basic to read a thread before you comment on it or assume you are reading into things as they actually are. Is this how you research your investments? Skip all the data and jump to conclusions based on correlational errors? B)

 

Here is page one. Thank you for confirming so rudely what I claimed. I never claimed any expertise as you have. Carry on! :lol:

http://www.rvnetwork.com/index.php?showtopic=93326&st=0

RV/Derek
http://www.rvroadie.com Email on the bottom of my website page.
Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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RV, Remember your comment about folks who buy and sell on the same day and the Casino comment? Then the comments again yesterday seemingly negative about frequent trading? You are right...you know nothing of investing. And if you don't make negative comments about how I or others invest or trade then I won't jump on your comments. So you carry on but be prepared for me to jump on your BS.

 

Hey, I have one laptop. Must make me an expert right? How would you react if I starting posting stupid opinions and false information on the computers thread...and sometimes saying unless it is my way it must be wrong?

Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

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Guest cindona

RV---"See, it is basic to read a thread before you comment on it or assume you are reading into things as they actually are. Is this how you research your investments? Skip all the data and jump to conclusions based on correlational errors"

 

Oops. He's been commenting since October, 2011....then, April, May, June, October, 2012... And Jan. Feb. of this year. I'd say he's been reading the thread and commenting.

 

:lol:

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Cindy!! you are BACK..... how is life in the big town?

Jack & Danielle Mayer #60376 Lifetime Member
Living on the road since 2000

PLEASE no PM's. Email me. jackdanmayer AT gmail
2016 DRV Houston 44' 5er (we still have it)
2022 New Horizons 43' 5er
2016 Itasca 27N 28' motorhome 
2019 Volvo 860, D13 455/1850, 236" wb, I-Shift, battery-based APU
No truck at the moment - we use one of our demo units
2016 smart Passion, piggyback on the truck
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
See our website for info on New Horizons 5th wheels, HDTs as tow vehicles, communications on the road, and use of solar power
www.jackdanmayer.com
Principal in RVH Lifestyles. RVH-Lifestyles.com

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Hey Cindy!

Good point! :D

 

Ken,

Who are you trying to convince? :rolleyes: BS is in the eye of the beholder. I hope whatever burr you have under your saddle resolves soon for you. Go on and escalate because the more you call me ignorant about investing, the more you agree with me! Thanks for your support!

:P

RV/Derek
http://www.rvroadie.com Email on the bottom of my website page.
Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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http://www.tflguide.com/2011/04/how-investors-react-in-different-market-situations.html

Are you a:

Window shopper,

Seasonal trader,

Scapegoat,

Hi-Tech Lalaji,

Mr. Cool?

See the above article and see which characterization matches which posts most consistently. This is an insightful article that is entertaining in its approach. And so true!

Edited by RV

RV/Derek
http://www.rvroadie.com Email on the bottom of my website page.
Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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