How long will this go on?

[Zulu]

We’re work camping in Inyo County, CA (Eastern Sierras country) and have been here since mid-April when the campground was locked down.

While in one sense things have gotten better, like almost full campgrounds, on the other hand, not so much. For example, our bathrooms, showers, and laundry (except by appointment) are all closed. We just don’t have the staff to constantly disinfect them. Also, we’ve gone from in-person to phone check-in because of a few nasty customers who would not wear masks — a couple of real ugly encounters.

Finally, the number of coronavirus cases in the county keeps inching up, nothing like LA, but we now have a significant outbreak in a small city south of us. Started by a family outing. Cancel those reunions, folks.

I’m reading about states imposing quarantines and possibly new lockdowns so we’re probably going to postpone any trips after we finish our work camping stint.

At first, the wife and I figured this would go on for months, maybe a year, but now . . . ?

 

 

 

[fpmtngal]

The million dollar question!

I wish I knew - I have no idea whether I should start thinking about traveling this winter (what I had planned originally) or just go to somewhere for the winter months, much like I’ve been doing this summer.

[trailertraveler]

From what I understand, how long the virus takes to run its course will depend on how long it takes for a significant enough portion of the population to develop immunity. That number is not decreased by slowing the infection rate. The slower the infection rate, the longer it will take for the required proportion of the population to develop immunity. A viable vaccine administered to a significant enough portion of the population will speed the process. How long the naturally acquired immunity or that from any vaccine lasts will also be an important factor. If the virus follows the pattern of the flu with different strains requiring different vaccines, the virus could become a long term cyclic part of the disease landscape. Evolution theory suggests that killing the  host too quickly (i.e. before it can be spread widely) is not a good strategy for a disease organism. Thus a disease may become less virulent over time.   A lot of questions still unanswered.

Edited June 27, 2020 by trailertraveler

[sandsys]

The whole idea behind masks and self-isolating was to slow the infection rate so medical facilities could keep up with demand. It was NEVER to stop the virus completely. We need people to get infected to develop herd immunity. I'm not sorry that the majority of the ones infected are people who won't follow guidelines but I am sorry that we elderly are the ones that pay the most for their refusals. We all have to calculate the cost/benefit ratio for us as individuals and as a community. 

Linda

[Randyretired]

I am hopeful that a vaccine will be available by maybe the first of next year.  That said I think we really need some better treatments for those that are sick.  Vaccines are usually not 100% and there are concerns that the first vaccines may be less robust.  Add in the number of people that can't get a vaccine and those that won't.  Herd immunity may not come quickly.  However, if there is a vaccine and a reasonable treatment for those that catch it, life could return to normal pretty quickly. 

[Ray,IN]

trailertraveler and sandsys, I agree with you both, well stated. There has never been a successful vaccine mass-produced to prevent catching a caronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 is the latest in a long line of such virus's. We older people must take the necessary precautions to protect ourselves and loved ones until a successful vaccine has been proven. Until that time, IMO present conditions will not change.

What we are experiencing today is the new normal for the foreseeable future.

 

[Kirk W]

4 hours ago, Zulu said:

I’m reading about states imposing quarantines and possibly new lockdowns so we’re probably going to postpone any trips after we finish our work camping stint.

At first, the wife and I figured this would go on for months, maybe a year, but now . . .

Part of the problem is our rebellious & independent nature as Americans. The value that we put on our individual rights is what makes us unique in the world, but it also makes it more difficult to contain something like this because we don't easily accept new rules and conform to them, even when it may be in our best interest. Add to that the lack of a uniform set of requirements, even withing a relatively small geographic area and the fractured leadership that can't agree on how serious it is, and you get the mess that we have today. Those who doubt the measures are effective should take a look at NY and NJ where it was by far the worst and is now safely under control, even though it is not over. Here in Texas, along with about 20 other states the community was gaining control of things and it was beginning to improve, until they opened things back up too rapidly and with no real teeth in the restrictions that were set up. As a result, the Dallas/Ft, Worth is seeing the worst problems yet with a danger of overwhelming the hospitals, while Houston's hospitals are in serious trouble. 

The fact is that the problem is not under control in most of the western states and things are probably as dangerous as they have ever been in most areas. Until people accept some responsibility and begin to wear a mask to protect others around them it will probably not get much better. I am amazed by the number of people in our group who are mostly over the age of 65 and thus in a high risk group, who still show reluctance to become part of the solution for the dangers. At this point, we have canceled our plans through July and have all of our future plans on hold until we see some sort of improvement. 

[GlennWest]

Yes, it is hurting us. Not worked for months now. 

[docj]

54 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

At this point, we have canceled our plans through July and have all of our future plans on hold until we see some sort of improvement. 

Even if we felt safe traveling in our own MH, the question becomes "where would we go?"  We like to go to major scenic attractions which means there will be lots of other people which won't make us comfortable.  We can't even consider going to Canada (our normal summer retreat) until the border is reopened.    Last year we stayed at B&B's in Newfoundland for a couple of weeks,  I can't even imagine doing that this year.  And what about spending 6 hours in chairs on the ferry!!

Edited June 28, 2020 by docj

[TXiceman]

We are on self imposed lock-down due to the dog having a torn ACL and required surgery.  We were out side of Houston and the vets down there were $5,000.  Her breeder is in Tulsa, OK and recommended her vet.  He is an orthopedic specialist and he was $2,400.  Plus the KOA campground here is only $485 per month, electric included.  We had lived in the Tulsa area twice, so we headed up to Tulsa for 3 moths.  The recovery is 12 weeks so here we set. 

We only go out to get groceries and other needed supplies.  I ride the bike and social distance here at the park.  It looks like it will be a long summer and I'd rather be cooler than Tulsa.

I did not make it to my 73 years to be taken out by a dang virus, so we plan to survive.

Y'all all take care.

Ken

[richfaa]

We are on hold  for all travel. This will be the year since 2006 that we have no travel plans. It is not bad at all we have plenty to do around the S&B. We are retired have income can pay the bills and keep food on the table .We are more fortunate than many. There is no documented medication that is known to be effective and there is no vaccine . We are learning as we go. We  are saving a lot of $$ as there are no diesel fuel bills and no campground fees. We winter were it is warm and that is up  in the air  we shall see. The Montana 5th wheel is in the shop getting much needed maintenance.

[Barbaraok]

6 hours ago, Zulu said:

We’re work camping in Inyo County, CA (Eastern Sierras country) and have been here since mid-April when the campground was locked down.

While in one sense things have gotten better, like almost full campgrounds, on the other hand, not so much. For example, our bathrooms, showers, and laundry (except by appointment) are all closed. We just don’t have the staff to constantly disinfect them. Also, we’ve gone from in-person to phone check-in because of a few nasty customers who would not wear masks — a couple of real ugly encounters.

Finally, the number of coronavirus cases in the county keeps inching up, nothing like LA, but we now have a significant outbreak in a small city south of us. Started by a family outing. Cancel those reunions, folks.

I’m reading about states imposing quarantines and possibly new lockdowns so we’re probably going to postpone any trips after we finish our work camping stint.

At first, the wife and I figured this would go on for months, maybe a year, but now . . . ?

We are still in the Phoenix area as Dave is slowly recovering from his quadruple bypass, which has lead to also having to have a pacemaker implanted just as everything went to hell in a hand basket.   We and holed up and even if they get a vaccine by the end of the year (don't bet money on it) it would be at least 6-9 months to get an appointment for the vaccine.   I'm hoping that by next spring enough people will have figured out that you need the mask, you need to stay apart, and we will be able to get out of valley for the Summer.

On the bright side, Dave saw his cardiologist and since the elevator was out, he walked up a huge flight of stairs, outside (though in the shade) in 105 heat!   He did need to take a minute at the top of the stairs (won't stop at the landing) but then so did I!

[Barbaraok]

4 hours ago, Randyretired said:

I am hopeful that a vaccine will be available by maybe the first of next year.  That said I think we really need some better treatments for those that are sick.  Vaccines are usually not 100% and there are concerns that the first vaccines may be less robust.  Add in the number of people that can't get a vaccine and those that won't.  Herd immunity may not come quickly.  However, if there is a vaccine and a reasonable treatment for those that catch it, life could return to normal pretty quickly. 

Better treatments are coming,  They found out that proning (put patients on stomachs at least 1/2 the day) helps.  More antiviral drugs being investigated.    They are learning things all of the time.  Think back to HIV and how many years it took to get to the point that there are now enough treatments to make it chronic.   Yes, first vaccines will probably not be robust, but will likely help make the infection less if you 've had the vaccine to get the immune system working.    

[Barbaraok]

4 hours ago, Ray,IN said:

trailertraveler and sandsys, I agree with you both, well stated. There has never been a successful vaccine mass-produced to prevent catching a caronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 is the latest in a long line of such virus's. We older people must take the necessary precautions to protect ourselves and loved ones until a successful vaccine has been proven. Until that time, IMO present conditions will not change.

What we are experiencing today is the new normal for the foreseeable future.

 

Actually they do have a SARS vaccine, but the disease killed so many, so fast,  they really never got to try out the vaccine large scale.   But some of the candidates are built on the work done on SARS.   

What I will never figure out is why doing the simple thing of wearing a mask and maintaining physical distances is so awful?   If both people wear masks the chance of getting the disease from either one drops by 70% or more.   One of the best example was the hair salon in Missouri.  2 stylists had the disease, but since EVERY ONE, customer and stylist alike, wore masks, none of the clients contracted it disease.   Contrast that with the 15 friends that went bar hoping in Florida - all 15 got the virus. 

[Barbaraok]

53 minutes ago, TXiceman said:

We are on self imposed lock-down due to the dog having a torn ACL and required surgery.  We were out side of Houston and the vets down there were $5,000.  Her breeder is in Tulsa, OK and recommended her vet.  He is an orthopedic specialist and he was $2,400.  Plus the KOA campground here is only $485 per month, electric included.  We had lived in the Tulsa area twice, so we headed up to Tulsa for 3 moths.  The recovery is 12 weeks so here we set. 

We only go out to get groceries and other needed supplies.  I ride the bike and social distance here at the park.  It looks like it will be a long summer and I'd rather be cooler than Tulsa.

I did not make it to my 73 years to be taken out by a dang virus, so we plan to survive.

Y'all all take care.

Ken

Hey, at least you aren't 'stranded' here in the Phoenix area!

[Randyretired]

1 hour ago, Barbaraok said:

We are still in the Phoenix area as Dave is slowly recovering from his quadruple bypass, which has lead to also having to have a pacemaker implanted just as everything went to hell in a hand basket.   

We spent a year in the Phoenix area in 2007 as my DW was receiving treatment at the Mayo clinic.  We were able to stay in Payson during the hottest months and traveled to Phoenix a few times each week.  The heat there is a challenge for RV's.  I don't miss it.

[sandsys]

2 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

even if they get a vaccine by the end of the year (don't bet money on it) it would be at least 6-9 months to get an appointment for the vaccine.

That's likely to be true as our health clinic recently opened under a modified process and the next available appointment yesterday for a simple annual visit was July 13th plus, when Dave checked to see the wait time for just a hair cut it was 100 some minutes. And many of us have been cutting our own hair while we wait so there's not as much demand for either of those as there likely will be when a vaccine is announced.

Linda

[Velos]

Thinking long term with all this antibacterial hand sanitizer vs soap and water are we going to develop stronger bacterias as a result? 

https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/about.html
Antibiotic resistance happens when germs like bacteria and fungi develop the ability to defeat the drugs designed to kill them. That means the germs are not killed and continue to grow.

https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest-threats.html

2019 AR Threats Report

CDC’s Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States, 2019 (2019 AR Threats Report) includes the latest national death and infection estimates that underscore the continued threat of antibiotic resistance in the U.S.

According to the report, more than 2.8 million antibiotic-resistant infections occur in the U.S. each year, and more than 35,000 people die as a result. In addition, 223,900 cases of Clostridioides difficile occurred in 2017 and at least 12,800 people died.

 

[trailertraveler]

12 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

Actually they do have a SARS vaccine, but the disease killed so many, so fast,  they really never got to try out the vaccine large scale.   But some of the candidates are built on the work done on SARS.  

Here is a recent article by the Mayo Clinic.  

Quote

Several vaccines for SARS have been tested in animals. Most of the vaccines improved the animals' survival but didn't prevent infection. Some vaccines also caused complications, such as lung damage. A COVID-19 vaccine will need to be thoroughly tested to make sure it's safe for humans.

Another quote from the article that may be relevant to many in this group: 

Quote

People older than age 50 are at higher risk of severe COVID-19. But older people usually don't respond to vaccines as well as younger people. An ideal COVID-19 vaccine would work well for this age group.

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by trailertraveler

[Kirk W]

11 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

What I will never figure out is why doing the simple thing of wearing a mask and maintaining physical distances is so awful?   If both people wear masks the chance of getting the disease from either one drops by 70% or more.  

"You can't tell me what to do! It is my right to do whatever I want without any mask!"  🙄

That seems to be the theme of may younger folks who don't seem to care if they then spread it to seniors and disabled folks causing them to die. I guess that until you see your 50th birthday, we seem to think that we are immortal. 

[LindaH]

17 hours ago, fpmtngal said:

I have no idea whether I should start thinking about traveling this winter (what I had planned originally) or just go to somewhere for the winter months, much like I’ve been doing this summer.

Although we haven't made a final decision yet, and won't until probably sometime in October, we're leaning toward heading south for the winter as we usually do.  We normally stay at one of the LTVAs (not in Q), so physical distancing isn't a problem, and we can order groceries for pick up just like we're doing now.  The biggest hurdle is laundry, but the laundromat we go to also has a wash and fold service, so we would use that instead of being inside for an hour or more surrounded by people.  

A lot of this will depend on what is open.  LTVA's? Laundromats? Dumps? 

[LindaH]

4 hours ago, Velos said:

Thinking long term with all this antibacterial hand sanitizer vs soap and water are we going to develop stronger bacterias as a result? 

That's why we wash our hands with non-antibacterial soap and save the hand sanitizer only for those times we don't have access to water.

[SKP099512]

11 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

Hey, at least you aren't 'stranded' here in the Phoenix area!

Agreed, we summered in the blast furnace that is the valley of the sun once and hopefully once. Our high temperature was 115.

[Barbaraok]

10 hours ago, Randyretired said:

We spent a year in the Phoenix area in 2007 as my DW was receiving treatment at the Mayo clinic.  We were able to stay in Payson during the hottest months and traveled to Phoenix a few times each week.  The heat there is a challenge for RV's.  I don't miss it.

Thankfully we have the park model and so far it is fine.  Just don't walk outside into the furnace when it gets above 110.   

[Barbaraok]

7 minutes ago, LindaH said:

That's why we wash our hands with non-antibacterial soap and save the hand sanitizer only for those times we don't have access to water.

Same here.  People really don't understand that the soap and water work just as well on surfaces.  I have never used antibacterial soap, if I feel the need to, just smear some straight dishwashing detergent on the surface, let it sit for a few minutes, wipe off and then rinse well.