What Are The Chances One Or More Legacy Automakers Will Fail?

[RV_]

The below is copied with permission. While several economists have seen indicators of the end of this bull market. I am a wait and see type so this is not a sky is falling article. But I have kept abreast of US EV markets and see some indicators that the EV Revolution, started by Elon Musk with his 2008 introduction of the first Tesla Roadster. Back then everyone here save one or two folks, especially the other top posters made fun, called Tesla a pump and dump, five years before their IPO to have any stock to pump or dump, nor were they looking for private investors at that time. Duh. Since then I've seen folks falling the Chevy Volt a Tesla killer in 2010 despite the fact that Toyota had the same hybrid system as the Volt, since ten years before. Now most folks understand BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, and PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, but there are still some who stick fingers in ears and do the nananana routine about anything that disagrees with their world view.

This post is long and a catch-up for any that are interested in the rest of the story.

"Recently, an article about Sandy Munro’s most recent interview was posted on CleanTechnica. The article and video are very interesting in quite a few ways. I commented with my thoughts and the replies convinced me to write this article.

Sandy is a veteran of Ford, who was advised by the late Edward Deming to migrate away from the automaker, so he branched out on his own. His business is about optimizing production to increase quality, lowering costs, and solving technical challenges to bringing products to market. He has worked with automakers, military, aerospace, medical, and other technology companies. His thoughts about legacy automakers are not very flattering, stating that Tesla has a 10 year lead over other US automakers. My comment was that I slightly disagree and consider Tesla to have a virtual 10 year lead over other automakers.

Legacy players are stuck in an oligopoly mindset, which is a viewpoint that takes hold when your competitors are small in number and very defined. This leads to an environment of “safe” business decisions, meaning only incremental advancements in technology actually make it to the marketplace because bigger risk is unnecessary, since the other players are of the same mindset and disruption is rare since the barriers to a new entrant becoming a major automaker are very high. So, you become comfortable and actually drive away ambitious ideas because they mean higher risk of losing what you have.

The oligopoly mindset also mostly keeps pricing wars at bay because you all win when you don’t compete on price. Price fixing (collusion) is illegal in most places, but in an oligopoly market, formal collusion agreements are unnecessary, you know your margins, your competitors have similar margins, costs of production are well understood, and you can likely buy a report from Sandy Munro on what your competitor’s car costs to build, with the MSRP available on their website, saving you even the need to reverse engineer the car yourself (if all you want is the production cost).

However, Tesla defied all odds and survived as an automaker. It is very likely the legacy players never took Elon or Tesla seriously. He never worked for a legacy player, hence did not have much relevant experience, and he did not have a university background in automotive design. EVs were “impossible” because of the barriers to entry in automaking as well as the EV technology learning curve that would be involved. There was straight hubris that EVs were not viable or profitable because automakers chose to believe the future was gas and diesel vehicles or hydrogen, and it had been decades since any new automaker came along and survived (outside of China). This gave Tesla an opening to grow without any real competition beyond lip service. GM eventually tried with the Bolt, hoping to get lucky a second time (years after it had used the EV1 as a sacrificial lamb to get California off its back). The Bolt was likely meant to kill the Model 3, and Tesla with it. This failed.

Today, thanks to Tesla pressure, we are now at the point where legacy players are starting to take EVs seriously. Volkswagen Group may in fact have grand aspirations, while many of the legacy players are virtually asleep at the wheel. There are green shoots all over the place that anyone can allude to — Ford’s investment in Rivian, GM’s new Bolt, FCA actually playing catchup, and so on — but these are baby steps.

So, what’s the likely sequence of events from here? Tesla is going to keep expanding. As long as customers keep buying its vehicles, it will be able to scale indefinitely. This will take time, but Gigafactory 3 (GF3) in China is being built at breakneck speed, Germany may be the site for GF4, the Semi and Model Y are coming, and the Roadster 2.0 is on the drawing board. Not to mention that Tesla Energy has huge potential. So, Tesla is not going anywhere unless the shorts find a way to financially destroy Tesla or customers stop buying them (the media war against Tesla is continuing in part with this purpose). As for “Tesla killers,” no automaker can actually kill Tesla, only customers can by not buying from the company.

The legacy players, on the other hand, have to overcome a great deal of inertia in order to transition to EVs. An EV is not that much different than a regular automobile, you minus the gasoline engine, its accoutrements, the fuel system, and then add the batteries and motor and you have the Bolt. The other components of the vehicle do not have to change much, the body can remain about the same, the suspension may have to go with a heavier rating, the seats, seat belts, plastic parts, wiring, and so forth can basically be reused and are for many ICE-based EVs. This can be improved upon. With every Tesla currently on the market being built as an EV from the ground up, it has proved many optimizations are possible, not to mention the non-oligopoly mindset of Tesla."

Source with more and hot links here  https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/24/what-are-the-chances-one-or-more-legacy-automakers-will-fail/?utm_source=CleanTechnica+News&utm_campaign=1b0cfc7d79-Daily+Email+CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b9b83ee7eb-1b0cfc7d79-331970081

 

The much touted now outed I-Pace BEV by Jaguar:

 

"Jaguar I-Pace Sales Have Crashed, Dealer Inventory Exceeds 6 Month Supply

Part of the problem is the I-Pace is a darn nice car but it is not the computer on wheels that a Tesla is. According to all reports, its graphic interface is slow and clunky. Not only that, it is not terribly efficient. In fact, just last week Jaguar Land Rover was touting its new app designed to let drivers know just how far they can go before recharging and where to find chargers along the route.

Sadly, that same app shows that the only way to get the maximum stated range of 292 miles is to drive at a steady 17 mph with no air conditioning or heat and riding on the standard 18″ wheels. That’s the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is cruising along at highway speeds on the optional 21″ wheels with the A/C or heat cranked up. Under those circumstances, the app says to expect about 121 miles — just 41% of the theoretical maximum range. Yikes!"

Source worth a close read: https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/13/jaguar-i-pace-sales-have-crashed-dealer-inventory-exceeds-6-month-supply/

The bottom line? Those companies that don't start yesterday will go under. However Tesla won't be anywhere close to the only decent BEV ten years from now. They may, however, be the only major car maker from the US still selling cars using the big three factories they buy for a song. Remember, prior to the Tesla Roadster (2008) and Model S 2010 no American car maker had plans for a BEV, and only Toyota had a hybrid, their 10year old Prius. GM came out with a hybrid to answer Tesla's BEVs which Volt is about to be dropped. their Bolt has had much the same fate. The Jaguar I-Pace is sinking fast and the above articles outline the why and how. Is Tesla a buy again? I'm waiting until the coming recession in the next ten years to decide about them and several other companies in MJ. 

I believe several industries will fail and rebound with new players. Exciting times. 

 

 

Edited August 26, 2019 by RV_

[RV_]

What do you think folks? I think it is time to get ready for the next recession. I've got my long term MJ where I want it, and will give them a few years more, and I've cash ready to buy when I think we are at rock bottom, like I did for the last one. This time however, I may be buying only index funds and more of a couple of my current funds. No bull market can last forever. I'm not saying it is here or coming soon, but I like to be ready and buy when top products are on a fire sale. Nothing fails taster than emotional investing and doubling down without reason.

Edited August 28, 2019 by RV_

[TLRam1]

If you can summarize the top part I would like to read it.

[RV_]

Sorry,

That's a good idea, why don't you go ahead and do that for your posts.

This reminds me of a true story. My recently deceased FIL made a truck garden in back of his house on his acreage. A rather large one. Hating to see it go to waste he put a sign in front of his house "Free vegetables." More folks than not would stop, ask where they were and he pointed to the garden. They'd make a face and ask why they had to pick them. They actually thought picking the ones you want was asking too much. LOL. Preparing the garden for planting, tilling and fertilizing, tending and fighting pests and doung a lot of watering wasn't enough. They wanted it picked cleaned and bagged and for free. I think he should have bagged some fecal matter and told them here, I picked it, ate it, and digested it for you too! 

 

[chirakawa]

6 hours ago, RV_ said:

They wanted it picked cleaned and bagged

 

That's why grocery stores do so well. 😀

[docj]

During our summer in Canada we did happen upon the first Tesla charging station we had ever seen.  We're not sure why it was there at that particular highway in New Brunswick and no vehicle was using it when we passed by.   But it did serve to illustrate that large numbers of BEVs are not going to appear as "primary vehicles" until the charging infrastructure is far better developed than it is today. 

I wouldn't mind having a BEV at our home base in TX where our maximum daily travel is <200 miles, although it would have to be capable of providing that with the A/C going full blast.  But for our recent >500 mi drive across Newfoundland I was quite happy to be able to top off my tank in Gander and Deer Lake.  There's a "whole lot of nothing" in Newfoundland and even gas stations can be hard to come by let alone BEV charging stations! 

A decade from now this all may be very different, but the devil is in the detail of how we're going to get from our present infrastructure to a new one.  Introduction of new technology into society is a complex and difficult to predict subject.  Introducing new technology to replace an existing technology solution (BEVs to replace IC engines) is very different than introducing a technology to perform a completely new function (for example, cell phones or personal computers).  Predicting market share in "X" number of years is a difficult task and far beyond my capabilities.  

Joel (AKA docj)

[RV_]

Chirakawa,

Amen on that being why grocery stores do so well. LOL!

 

 

[RV_]

Joel,

You can't go by the obvious ones. The public ones, Tesla only public are behind restaurants and malls along major routes. You can order Teslas with the longest range while heated and air conditioned than any other BEV in production and can be bought here in the US. I agree, however, the Teslas do get their advertised range today, many Superchargers are behind a restaurant just off the road that Tesla puts in at no cost to then. Those are the stations you see on the maps of public stations. Then they have Sponsored chargers for the customers of those establishments not the public. Here's a list of them by state: https://www.tesla.com/findus/list/chargers/United+States

Scroll down to Texas and see where some may be right by you. As well here are the maps of current and soon to be installed chargers: https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

The maps for Europe, Australia, and China are there as well just search around on this page: https://www.tesla.com/supercharger

Lots of folks are unaware that there may be a charger for Tesla behind their local malls like here:  like here  https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&search=North America&bounds=34.26450883655544%2C-85.90646983289241%2C30.656530269393713%2C-101.60227016710758&filters=supercharger&zoom=7&location=shreveportsupercharger

You wrote 

" A decade from now this all may be very different, but the devil is in the detail of how we're going to get from our present infrastructure to a new one.  Introduction of new technology into society is a complex and difficult to predict subject.  Introducing new technology to replace an existing technology solution (BEVs to replace IC engines) is very different than introducing a technology to perform a completely new function (for example, cell phones or personal computers). "

You might want to check out the maps and the links above a bit closer. Assume a 250 mile range for the cheapest model 3. Or a long range Model S or the Tesla models. Then look at your actual miles driven in your car as a Toad, and at home. Then as far as travel check out the Tesla maps. Superchargers are usually every 60 to 75 miles along major highways and the onboard computers tell you how far you have left and where the next charger is.

You may find what is ten years down the road for the rest is already done by Tesla. You don't have to like them, or ever buy a BEV. But perhaps you will be surprised once you do look online.

 

 

[docj]

On 8/31/2019 at 5:25 PM, RV_ said:

You might want to check out the maps and the links above a bit closer.

In the entire Corpus Christi area there appears to be one Supercharger and ~10 destination chargers all of which are associated with various hotels.  IMHO that's not the same as having gas stations throughout town. 

The entire Houston metro area (~200 miles away from my Rockport home base) has 4 Superchargers with another 3 "Coming Soon!"  If I didn't want to drive to Houston with very little charge left I would be forced to "charge up" in Victoria TX at a hotel there that has a Supercharger.

I could use a BEV for most of my driving around Rockport/Corpus Christi where my typical daily drive is on the order of 80-100 miles but my "dirt cheap" Hyundai Elantra gets ~35 mpg on the same routes and it was less than half the cost of a Tesla.  I see no incentive to replace it anytime soon.

Thanks for asking me to check the maps.  It reinforced my conviction that a BEV is not something I'm going to purchase in this lifetime! 😂  I'm typically an "early adopter" for new technology, but, other than "status" I simply don't see any compelling reason to make this purchase.

Joel (AKA docj)

Edited September 1, 2019 by docj

[Barbaraok]

This is why we have a hybrid.  Really enjoy the 48 mpg, filling up once a month (11 gallons) and always being sure the car will start even with a low battery.   Plus fun to watch the battery 'fill' when coasting or coming to a stop!

[Kirk W]

12 hours ago, docj said:

Thanks for asking me to check the maps.  It reinforced my conviction that a BEV is not something I'm going to purchase in this lifetime! 

If you live in east TX you will have the same problem. Of course, if I were heavily invested in the industry I might be publicly promoting it as the best answer too! 

[chirakawa]

13 hours ago, docj said:

Thanks for asking me to check the maps.  It reinforced my conviction that a BEV is not something I'm going to purchase in this lifetime! 😂  I'm typically an "early adopter" for new technology, but, other than "status" I simply don't see any compelling reason to make this purchase.

 

At this point, the only "compelling" reason would be environmental, if you are so inclined.  There's no way these vehicles make economic sense at current costs, unless you live next door to one of those charging stations.

Last year, an acquaintance bought a brand new $900,000 Entegra DP motorhome and a brand new Tesla within a week of each other.  When I asked him why he bought the Tesla, since he could afford any car on the market, he said he was concerned about the environment.  Go figure.

[Barbaraok]

Obviously a lot of you haven't been on the west coast (including Arizona) recently.   Lots of charging stations all over the place (shopping centers, gas stations, wineries) and they have vehicles in those slots getting charged.   In fact we've seen quite a few parking lots at supermarkets in the suburbs of Phoenix with covered parking areas where the roofs of over the parking areas are covered with solar panels, which then supply charging capabilities to a number of the slots underneath.    BTW - love the covered parking lots in the Phoenix area - nice to come out and to be able to touch the door handle without burning your hand.😎

[Lance A Lott]

I read a recent report that stated a Tesla actually produces more pollution than a Diesel when all things including battery production etc is considered. 

[RV_]

Interesting responses. Hey there are soon to be BEVs from every manufacturer and there are many more on the market now than just Tesla. Which brand is like Chevy/Ford. OK opinion wise we'll just have to agree to disagree. Once I sell this last property I hope to order my BEV after we install our Tesla Power Wall whole house backup system. That instead of a similar cost nat. gas/gasoline/diesel whole house system like we have now, a 25kw Generac water cooled auto switching unit running on Natural gas.

Now for the folks who wonder, here are facts from a Tesla road warrior who has been challenging the ability to charge his Tesla for a year and 80k miles. Facts from the road if you will. Seems the problems on the road are reported as nil to none by actual owners. Here's some reading for any others reading who'd like current info from owners. Here's one who now has 80k miles driving all over the country to test the "range anxiety" expressed here and in many circles. Sour grapes, maybe just only reading articles that agree with their viewpoints? I don't know. But here's one article to read if one truly is passing on range and cost issues.

Excerpt:

"He started nearly a year ago, pushing the Tesla Supercharger network to its limits and attempting to answer questions about what it means to experience all-electric transportation. Arthur Driessen embarked on a Tesla voyage without carbon as a way to determine if, indeed, the advent of electronic vehicles is upon us and what it would take to explore the US through Supercharging.

To do so, he needed to figure out the practicality of trying to explore the US in a Tesla without worrying about running out of fuel. Equipped with his Tesla Model 3, a Sony PCM-d100, an iPhone, and a MacBook, Arthur has tried his best to go as far away from a Supercharger as possible. Using only samples from his journeys and sound design through modern audio technology, he’s in the process of creating a fully functional library of instruments to document his travels.

How has the Tesla Model 3 responded on the road during your Tesla voyage without carbon?

“On the road, after 86,000 miles (just passed 86 the other day!) it still drives as if I picked it up last month. I have never been happier with a purchase. I have only had to have one repair, which was something to do with a tire squeaking, and Tesla fixed it for free. I go through tires fairly quickly though due to the battery weight, needing to replace them every 20,000 miles. With the complete lack of other maintenance, I don’t mind though.

“The car itself drives beautifully in all types of weather. I was in both the Rockies and Yellowstone during snow storms and was never worried. I’ve gotten ‘stuck’ in snow or sand a couple of times, but with the ‘slip start’ option in the computer, I have gotten out each time on my own.

“The range is amazing. I almost never worry about range. The only times I’ve worried are driving through extremely remote places like down to the Rio Grande at the Mexico/Texas border or up to International Falls on the Canada/Minnesota border. They are far and few up here but around enough to where, with a little planning, all anxiety leaves. Furthermore, I’ve been able to push the car a bit on range. The most I’ve gotten was 354 miles from a full battery, and that was before the latest update that upped the range a little.”

How has the Tesla Model 3 responded on the road during your Tesla voyage without carbon?

“On the road, after 86,000 miles (just passed 86 the other day!) it still drives as if I picked it up last month. I have never been happier with a purchase. I have only had to have one repair, which was something to do with a tire squeaking, and Tesla fixed it for free. I go through tires fairly quickly though due to the battery weight, needing to replace them every 20,000 miles. With the complete lack of other maintenance, I don’t mind though.

“The car itself drives beautifully in all types of weather. I was in both the Rockies and Yellowstone during snow storms and was never worried. I’ve gotten ‘stuck’ in snow or sand a couple of times, but with the ‘slip start’ option in the computer, I have gotten out each time on my own.

“The range is amazing. I almost never worry about range. The only times I’ve worried are driving through extremely remote places like down to the Rio Grande at the Mexico/Texas border or up to International Falls on the Canada/Minnesota border. They are far and few up here but around enough to where, with a little planning, all anxiety leaves. Furthermore, I’ve been able to push the car a bit on range. The most I’ve gotten was 354 miles from a full battery, and that was before the latest update that upped the range a little.”

What were some highlights from your trip? Why did these stand out over others?

“The first things that pop into mind are places I’ve gone, like Yellowstone in Wyoming or Acadia in Maine. This country is so vast that being able to see all the corners of it has caused me to really fall in love with it. There really is everything one can imagine somewhere in this country, so whether you want to see deserts, or rain forests, or snow capped mountains, it’s all there and it’s all breathtaking.

“The second thing is being able to educate people about EVs. This is such a new technology, and there really isn’t that much information out there about it. It’s downright difficult to find someone who owns an EV to be able to ask questions, and this leads to a lot of ignorance about the tech. Sometimes, just sitting at a charging station for a day and answering questions to anyone who asks is my best day of the week.

“My favorite story about this was when I was in Florida. I was sitting at a charger, and a young woman knocked on my window. She told me that she had her father with her, and he was visiting from Africa. He was 93 years old and had taken a trip to America to visit his daughters and grandchildren. He still lived in a small tribal community, and she was wondering if it was okay if she showed him my car. I was absolutely delighted to talk to him about it and to see his amazement for how far the world had come since he was a little boy in his tribe — it was awe inspiring.

“This leads me perfectly into my third highlight, which is the growth I have been able to find in myself by getting out and exploring the country — to realize how small I am and how small my bubble is. To meet new people every day who have completely different upbringings, who have completely different communities and ways of life, to be able to connect with all of them over this technology, and to be able to be share the excitement of where this technology will bring us.

Source with a lot of other articles for those who are open minded:
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/17/a-tesla-voyage-without-carbon-cleantechnica-exclusive/

The article also answers

When and why did you purchase your Tesla Model 3, and why did you choose it over other EVs?

Tell us a bit about your Tesla.

When and why did you purchase your Tesla Model 3, and why did you choose it over other EVs?

Why is driving a Tesla important to you?

What words of advice might you offer to others about Tesla and the Model 3?

If you want more on Arthur's trip and his experiences here is his blog of the first year: https://voyagewithoutcarbon.com/2018/10/31/about-me/

 

Edited September 2, 2019 by RV_

[Ray,IN]

43 minutes ago, Lance A Lott said:

I read a recent report that stated a Tesla actually produces more pollution than a Diesel when all things including battery production etc is considered. 

That would be a very subjective report IMO. If it included battery production, etc, did the report include diesel engine production, refinery pollution during cracking to refine diesel fuel, etc?

Got a link to that report? I'd like to learn more.

[Lou Schneider]

7 hours ago, RV_ said:

How has the Tesla Model 3 responded on the road during your Tesla voyage without carbon?

Sorry, the following is just a pet peeve of mine ...

The premise of the "Voyage Without Carbon" itself is false.  Even in Canada, where "hydro" (hydroelectric) is used as a shorthand for grid based power, carbon based power plants provide 25% of their total grid power and they continue to build new carbon based power plants to meet the increasing demands on their power grid.

Adding electric based vehicles to the US power grid, which is already running at 90+% of capacity, will also require building new power plants to support them.  They'll almost certainly be carbon based unless we follow France's example and create the necessary additional baseline capacity from nuclear power.

Solar power is sexy, but requires vastly more space than we have available to generate the amount of power needed to support large scale electric transportation.  As one example, those solar panels shading a row of Supercharger charging stations look nice, but they're just window dressing compared to the amount of power each charging space pulls from the grid.

To put it in a way RVers can relate to, the shaded area of a typical parking space is about 400 square ft.  That's the same amount of roof area as you'll find on the largest RVs.

The largest RV solar power system can produce about 1 - 2 Kw if you completely cover the roof with solar panels.  It generates almost all of it's power during the 8 hours or so of full sun found in a typical sunny day.

2 Kw is the same amount of power provided to a standard Tesla charger from a 20 amp household outlet .  This will recharge a Tesla at the rate of about 5 miles per charging hour, or 60+ hours (2.5 days) to replace the power used in  300 miles of driving.

In other words, the solar panels covering a Tesla charging space produce approximately enough power to charge one Tesla a day, even with a conservative estimate that each car is only recharging 1/3 of it's battery capacity (100 miles of driving).  Any additional vehicles charging in that space during that day are drawing their power directly from the grid.

I tried to reply to the article directly, but cleantechnica.com closed their Comments section after a single favorable comment was posted.

Edited September 2, 2019 by Lou Schneider

[docj]

5 hours ago, RV_ said:

Seems the problems on the road are reported as nil to none by actual owners.

With all due respect, asking cult members if they enjoy being in a cult isn't a particularly good way to get reliable information.

 

5 hours ago, RV_ said:

“The second thing is being able to educate people about EVs.

This isn't a vehicle, it's a way of life! 😎

I'm as concerned as anyone else about the future of the planet but IMHO the problems we face our so enormous that the environmental benefits of a few thousand (or even tens of thousands) of BEV's purchased by affluent consumers is pretty insignificant, particularly when the electricity for many of these vehicles will be generated by fossil-fueled power plants.  IMO it's like banning plastic straws and grocery bags--all very good things to do but they're not going to solve the problem of increasing global average temperature.  

I hate to sound like such a contrarian, but IMO part of our problem is that most people continue to think that we can reverse the warming trend  by doing "simple" things like buying BEVs. A real solution will most likely require a massive international effort of a scale never seen before.  Otherwise, we might as well get used to >100F temperatures throughout much of the US in the summer.

[RV_]

I never have said the purchase of an EV would be great for the environment as a personal motive. I have driven the Model S, the First Leaf, and the Mitsubishi iMEi, and I love the Tesla power and build/tech quality. I like the idea of not going to a gas station for one car or truck EV. Because I won't buy two at once. But I am buying one as soon as we are free of the old house I'm meeting my realtor for the latest offer tomorrow.

But many here sound like they have an inside track that automakers are not switching to BEVs ASAP. Here's a 2019 article about what the Germans are doing. https://www.businessinsider.com/german-automakers-spend-billions-electric-vehicle-technology-2019-3

You folks might want to tell the rest of the world they are wrong. <wink>

Joel, why are you being a contrarian? <grin>

When Is Someone Going To Produce A Tesla Model 3 Competitor?

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/31/when-is-someone-going-to-produce-a-tesla-model-3-competitor/?utm_source=CleanTechnica+News&utm_campaign=b1e5031fa2-Daily+Email+CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b9b83ee7eb-b1e5031fa2-331970081

It is a look at current states of planning not cults or kool-aid, unless you count the German auto industry in that grouping. Our big three went bankrupt the year Tesla debuted its first model, the Roadster. (Ford got some $28-20 billion in federal loan guarantees to avoid the actual bk.) That had nothing to do with EVs, they did it all by themselves. Today just read their investments and Current tech directions away from Diesel and gas.

The question was do you think the current US automakers will survive the move to BEVs worldwide. Y'all are attacking the EV that the rest of the world is assholes and elbows trying to produce.

Now for the folks thinking energy production remains dirty here's some optional reads:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2018/01/30/india-coal-power-is-about-to-crash-65-of-existing-coal-costs-more-than-new-wind-and-solar/#6c4973384c0f

https://qz.com/1193603/two-countries-are-the-reason-the-eu-is-hitting-its-ambitious-renewable-energy-targets/

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/22/the-netherlands-announces-ban-on-coal-plans-close-of-2-power-plants-by-2024/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2018/12/30/6-renewable-energy-trends-to-watch-in-2019/#5720ae034a1f

Is Forbes a cult' drinking  koolaid? ^^^^^^

From the IEA, the math, the charts, 2019 renewable growth charts/ Fossil fuel dropping charts  worldwide: https://www.iea.org/wei2019/power/

Now that may affect pollution worldwide. And make BEVs very clean indeed.

So you don't think the rise of BEVs will cause one or more US carmakers to fail, despite the tariffs of 30% in response to ours from the car makers largest markets? The rest of the world is passing us by as we regress despite having a current BEV market segment leader in Tesla.

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so.”

― Mark Twain

 

 

Edited September 3, 2019 by RV_

[RV_]

On 9/2/2019 at 6:43 AM, Kirk W said:

If you live in east TX you will have the same problem. Of course, if I were heavily invested in the industry I might be publicly promoting it as the best answer too! 

Kirk, you are off topic, but is Forbes heavily invested in the industry, I sold my interest in Tesla as a 15 bagger in late 2018 at $348/share so I'm currently not invested an anything Tesla or BEV so it can't be me!  You were also one of the top two folks here that said no electric car will ever go into production.

The topic question was do you think any or all of the top three will go bankrupt because of BEVs? You are constantly making claims of interests and promoters.

 http://

 

Edited September 5, 2019 by RV_

[RV_]

BTW Kirk, I just bought a new 2019 Subaru Forester with "Eyesight" etc. standard, and a 2006 Subaru Baja I bought and had gone through with all new seals and head gaskets, timing belt, and new Turbo. Am I now in a conspiracy to drink AWD KoolAid?

Lou,

Your comments/opinions on the IEA data I linked to above? Your links?

[TLRam1]

On 8/31/2019 at 1:08 AM, RV_ said:

Sorry,

That's a good idea, why don't you go ahead and do that for your posts.

 

10-4

As far as the second part of your post, nice story but doesn't fit what I was asking.

Edited September 3, 2019 by TLRam1

[jcussen]

I have a coach with toad for big trips, a MB diesel SUV for weekend trips, and a Tesla model 3 for everything else. I am 40 miles from Houston, so I can run in there for anything I need, and of course around town. Never been to a supercharger except  once at a restaurant to try it out. I can charge on 10 amp wall outlet at 4 driving miles an hour, or at my 30 amp rv plug at 12 miles per hour. So if I make at 120 mile day trip, 10 hours charging at the house and I am full again. Great stereo, auto pilot, free software upgrades, Not for everybody, but perfect for me. Don't really give a damm about the green thing, just easier for me and at $50000 about the same as a small Audi or BMW or a nice GMC pickup and with a MPGe of 100, what's not to like?

BTW that 4.5 second 0-60, will put a smile on my old wrinkled face.

Edited September 4, 2019 by jcussen

[RV_]

Jcussen,

At last an owner who gets it, and is not a drone of oil right or whatever the group reads/believes. I would believe they've never spent any real time behind the wheel. I just sold my diesel truck and did not care about green when I had it, it was just the perfect truck for our needs to tow and handle the requirement of acreage. Full size tractor, 50" Cub Cadet RZT (zero turn,) craftsman riding mower with clippings cans for leaves from my all oak not pine properties, now down to this last five acre place. But whenever I write about Tesla most closed minds didn't get the memo that renewables are cheaper power plants to build and no coal, gas, or oil needed to run them after they're built. Cheap energy is no longer fossil.

While I have met a few left wing greenies, but usually they don't own them. I agree that the Model 3 is cheaper than the average luxury car in the $100k range up, and is ten times cheaper and up than the $100k Sports and million dollar super cars like Ferrari/Lambo, etc.  I will be getting mine after this property sells and I can rejoin my wife in Colorado where she is updating/remodeling and nesting. We have gotten a new 2019 Subaru Forester and a new to us 2006 Subaru Baja as our "Subdivision" truck. I had the engine taken down to R&R the head and other gaskets, seals, hoses, water pump, timing belt etc. as they don't make them since 2006. We know Colorado Springs and bought a one year old Subaru Brat in 1979 when I taught there 1978-1981 To complement our VW Westphalia Camper, our second of eight we restored super stock. They went better than some 4WD because of the engine over the rear drive wheels and with no differential hanging down since both had CVs and lots of clearance. Folks forget that all vehicles have four wheel brakes.

Anyway after buying the house there I wasn't comfortable buying the Dual engine (AWD) long range Model 3 until we were sure we are staying there in that house. We needed a base to explore again to be sure we are staying there so we're only putting in two PowerWalls which we can easily move if needed. The solar is only after we are sure we are staying, and that will charge our whole house backup and Charge the Tesla from the PowerWalls (PW) too. We bought a house with A/C there because temps have risen a lot summers since we were there last. But with no humidity like in the south we can get by with no air in a pinch, so it will at first just support led lighting, fridge, dishwasher, furnace fan as our furnace and range and water heater are all gas, and whenever we are sure we are in our last house the dryer will be gas too. We knew we were moving since we both detest the climate in the South. But after we had an A/C unit go out in mid summer a few years back, we realized we would not survive here without utilities, We CAN bundle up and sleep under our down comforters in cold, and we have a gas fireplace that is vented and glassed in for heat exchangers. So unlike here, we could make do with one PW, and no A/C, but only in a pinch. Eventually we will have solar for charging a Model 3 and running the house with 2 PWs. We have a Generac 25kw water cooled natural gas backup generator now at the property we're selling, with all the maintenance water cooled 4 cylinder engines need. the PWs are zero maintenance, silent, and switch on as fast, or faster than the UPS backing up our computers now, and two 4k home theaters, one a Vizio P Quantum 65". The other our older 2015 4k 65" Vizio M65.

So before we commit to the almost no maintenance Model 3, and later their small pickup. Unless I decide to do cut up and convert a used Model S or 3 two motor AWD: Here's the YouTube short on it, not from Tesla: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R35gWBtLCYg

A Young lady cut up her new Model 3! Yes, I said Lady, here's the build video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKv_N0IDS2A

I am posting next about the first Tesla Competition from a major manufacturer here: http://www.rvnetwork.com/topic/137264-2020-porsche-taycan-vs-tesla-model-s-performance-rival-evs-compared-finally-some-competition/

Edited September 5, 2019 by RV_

[Sehc]

All very interesting. The future is electric. No getting around that. We will clean up our act, or the world will go on without humans. As far as clean electric energy, one big pile is easier to clean than millions of small ones.