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The sky is falling!

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14 hours ago, $ Spot said:

From what I read on forums folks are seeking used RVs with the thought that new ones are junk.    

You are forgetting budget in your discussion.  I'm looking at 2010 Newmar Dutch Stars not because I think a 2020 DS is crap but because I cannot afford it. Now it is true I'm looking at used Newmar vs a new Thor in my price range to get better quality.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Interesting view. If that is true, who is buying the new RVs, since sales has been up through 2018?

It's not my view, I have none on the topic. I'm sharing some of what I've read.

3 hours ago, Kirk W said:

Most of us in the RV community talk about quality in the industry but continue to buy based mostly on price. 

This can relate to many purchases. Let's say Kirk needs to buy four shirts. Walmart has some for $7 each & Duluth Trading has some for $30 each. Which of these two stores will you shop?

     Spot

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50 minutes ago, $ Spot said:

It's not my view, I have none on the topic. I'm sharing some of what I've read.

This can relate to many purchases. Let's say Kirk needs to buy four shirts. Walmart has some for $7 each & Duluth Trading has some for $30 each. Which of these two stores will you shop?

     Spot

Neither.  Lots of places in between.  And on philosophical basis we don’t shop at Wal-Mart

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1 hour ago, filthy-beast said:

You are forgetting budget in your discussion.  I'm looking at 2010 Newmar Dutch Stars not because I think a 2020 DS is crap but because I cannot afford it. Now it is true I'm looking at used Newmar vs a new Thor in my price range to get better quality.

 

 

Exactly.  Plus first owner gets most of the “new kinks” worked out. 😎

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16 minutes ago, Barbaraok said:

Neither.  Lots of places in between.  And on philosophical basis we don’t shop at Wal-Mart

answer the question as presented 

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21 hours ago, $ Spot said:

Let's say Kirk needs to buy four shirts. Walmart has some for $7 each & Duluth Trading has some for $30 each. Which of these two stores will you shop?

Actually, Barb is correct since I can't recall ever buying a shirt in either of those stores. It would also depend to some degree what I intend to use the shirts for as to where I'd shop and what I would pay. That same thing is true for me when it comes to shopping for an RV. Neither of the stores that you mention seem to be failing as they each market to a different group of buyers. When we bought an RV to live in fulltime we shopped a higher price group than we did when we were downsizing and returning to seasonal travel. My point is that nobody can supply a quality product and make a profit by selling at the same price as the cheapest competitors. There are veary valid reasons for the Newmar Dutch Star or the Tiffin Journey being priced higher than Thor's Palazzo or Fleetwood's Bounder. In your example of buying a shirt, for the man who wears a dress shirt every day to his job at the bank or law firm, buying the cheaper shirt is not the best value for his money, but for the guy who only wears a dress shirt to church on Sunday and occasionally for a night out, his Walmart shirt will serve very well. That same principle applies to buying an RV. For the weekend & vacation user a low priced RV will serve very well but if you live fulltime in one you spend more nights in 1 year in than does the weekender in 10 years so the best value for his money is very different from the fulltimer. 

Edited by Kirk W

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22 hours ago, $ Spot said:

This can relate to many purchases. Let's say Kirk needs to buy four shirts. Walmart has some for $7 each & Duluth Trading has some for $30 each. Which of these two stores will you shop?

 

21 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

Neither.  Lots of places in between.  And on philosophical basis we don’t shop at Wal-Mart

 

21 hours ago, $ Spot said:

answer the question as presented 

 

20 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

I did answer the Q, can’t help it that you are myopic about purchasing possibilities 

 

53 minutes ago, Kirk W said:

Actually, Barb is correct since I can't recall ever buying a shirt in either of those stores. It would also depend to some degree what I intend to use the shirts for as to where I'd shop and what I would pay. 

The question was on the test, answers incorrect, FAIL.

     Spot

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Basically we are all arguing with half the facts. No one knows the number of RVs being sold to new customers vs existing customers. They have not published how long on average the RV is kept. They have not determined anything other than there is a downturn in new rv sales.

Just as a thought let me refer you to my Grandmothers wisdom. "People who lost it all in the depression, seem to be more careful with how they use what they have left"

No one is mentioning the knowledge gained from the recession. The willingness to hang on to a paid off unit is much greater than it was back in 05 and 06. Many friends that used to trade their RVs every 2 years have kept the same units for the last 8.  I can tell you from a shop owner (cars, not RVs) that it is the older generation that is fixing things and the younger folks just coming out of school will trade it off and acquire debt.

I think the RV sales will and typically do slow down when they run out of people they can convince to buy them. 

I personally recommend that people look at used units.  A used high end coach will ALMOST always be better than a new low end coach. (and don't get me started on the rubber roof units. :)

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2 hours ago, solo318 said:

Basically we are all arguing with half the facts. No one knows the number of RVs being sold to new customers vs existing customers. They have not published how long on average the RV is kept. They have not determined anything other than there is a downturn in new rv sales.

It would make for interesting reading to know what share of new RV sales go to first time owners. It would also be intersting to know some facts about the sale of used RVs as well, but I doubt that anyone tracks that information. The articles listed were based on information about new units shipped from the factories to the dealers and it is assumed that those numbers are representitive of the new sales the dealers make, which does seem logical. Tracking who the dealers are selling to would be more difficult to compile as it would depend on dealer information and how accurately they collect it. In the times that we bought from an RV dealer, I can't remember ever being asked if we were first time buyers or not and only 2 of the 6 purchases involved RV trade-in's to indicate that we were not first time buyers. 

It would also be very interesting to know how long the average RV buyer keeps each  RV but I doubt that information has ever been tracked.  I believe that we keep ours longer than is typical as we kept ours an average of 8.3 years with the shortest being 2 years (a used one) and the longest 14 years. We were just recently talking about the fact that we believe that we see more RVs that are more than 10 years old in use today than in our early years of RVing, but that is based only one a belief and no real data. 

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On 8/20/2019 at 4:11 PM, SnowGypsy said:

who do I trust?  Well, no one in the media as they simply try to sway people to their way of thinking.  I don't care for the WSJ anyway and feel many are "jumping on the bandwagon" - I was very active during 2016 watching media outlets and formed an opinion of them.  Experts in the field, hey I just researched wind farms, and experts can't be trusted either.   I also don't think we ever recovered from the last recession, just good fleecing by the media.   

So why don't you tell us whom you DO trust?  I have no idea what that last sentence means.

Edited by hemsteadc

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Once you read past the posturing in that article, the most important line is...

"Still, shipments remain historically strong. Executives say they expect inventory levels to balance out by the end of the year. The RV Industry Association is forecasting a 2.5% increase in shipments to dealers for 2020."

Certainly not a "sky is falling in" statement. With 2017/18 setting all time record volumes, it doesn't take a Wall Street genius to predict an adjustment. But even from record highs, a modest increase is still predicted. 

My opinion, its also BS to blame the price increases on tariffs. Very few RV components are sourced from newly tariffed countries and the few items that are, pale in comparison to the labor costs of RV manufacturing/assembly.

As for quality, RV's have never had stellar quality across the board. Some Mfg are better than others, but industry wide cost has always been more important to the RV consumer than quality.  That cost/quality evaluation is a bit different for fulltime RV'ers. But remember 90% of RV's are built for folks who use them less than 6 times a year. They sit in storage 90% of the year. Yes, when you move into the stratosphere of Prevost where price doesn't matter, then higher quality is evident.

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