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Given 100 Years Of History, What Are The Odds Of A Stock Market Rally In 2019?


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I found this article an interesting read.

Excerpt:

"The average stock market return

We aren't comparing like with like (as the UK data set is a lot smaller), but equities tend to behave very similarly across both sides of the Atlantic. The average annual return over the whole series is a healthy 7.5%, while the standard deviation of return is plus or minus 19% around this average. For those who don't remember their school maths, this means that it's "standard" that roughly 2 in every 3 years the stock market will return somewhere between +26% and -11.5%. The FTSE All Share and S&P 500 are both down about 13% year to date… so they are just outside this standard range. I think we all forget that stock markets can be quite volatile - but it's par for the course!"

The actual article is chock full or charts and the conclusions seem very well supported. For anyone wanting to chart an investment course through today's investment landscape littered with bear traps, it is a must read here:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4230330-given-100-years-history-odds-stock-market-rally-2019

RV/Derek
http://www.rvroadie.com Email on the bottom of my website page.
Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire

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