Here comes the iPhone apocalypse and the end of Apple as we know it

[RV_]

Some considerations about where Apple is going based on current steering. The article is a long one with in depth analysis and sources/support for his conclusions. Here is a taste.

 

Excerpt:

 

"In the course of a decade, Apple went from the Mac company to the iDevices company. The next 10 years will be even more challenging as the company faces tough competition from Asia which will erode its iPhone market share.

 

My ZDNet UK colleague Charles McLellan did a fantastic market analysis this week of how Apple sits with its emerging competition from China, Korea and other parts of Asia.

 

It paints a picture of an incredibly wealthy company sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars in cash assets, but growth in its core business of iPhone, which makes up 68 percent of its revenue, is slowing quickly and making significantly less headway year-over-year in various key developing markets, giving up increasingly more share to more price-aggressive Chinese products instead.

 

Despite the scary header graphic, this is not a Roland Emmerich-style movie plot line predicting total annihilation for the Cupertino, California-based company.

 

But it does project the reality of what the company is going to face for maintaining market share for its traditional products over the next ten years and what will eventually motivate it to transcend its pure consumer electronics roots into something else entirely.

 

Apple of course has undergone these shifts and survived extinction events before. And it has weathered them well. For example, look at the Macintosh -- while it is a multi-billion dollar business in and of itself, it only represents 8.9 percent of the company's annual revenue today.

 

It once represented the majority of Apple's income, prior to the introduction of the iPod"

 

Much more analysis in the article and his conclusions are not bad, but surprising, at the end here:

http://www.zdnet.com/article/iphone-apocalypse-end-of-apple-as-we-know-it/?tag=nl.e539&s_cid=e539&ttag=e539&ftag=TRE17cfd61

[Barbaraok]

Been hearing about the end of Apple since '80s

[RV_]

Didn't read it did you?

[Barbaraok]

Yes I did.

[Kirk W]

Been hearing about the end of Apple since '80s

Yes, and this forum is one of the promoters of that line of thinking. The article is interesting reading, but there are other opinions and there have even been similar articles about Microsoft, but they never seem to get posted here.

[Jack Mayer]

That article DOES NOT talk about the "end of Apple". It only points out the innovation cycle that Apple goes through, and the fact that instead of trying to adapt existing products to the future (during the innovation cycle) they tend to abandon products. That is EXACTLY what they do. Nothing new there. The analysis that says that smartphones - including iPhones - will become commodity products is spot on. You can see it happening now, pretty easily if you step back and look at the industry as a whole.

[RV_]

It is an interesting article from an investment standpoint. Certainly not against Apple today, and wondering about the future of that market for all vendors. I notice a lot of folks here tend to react to the headline rather than read the article. That is why I added red to the line above. The article simply points out that the smartphone is no longer a one off device.

 

But the article is there and any who actually read the article will see it the same way Jack and I did.

 

Barb and Kirk, I am glad to see you two agreeing!

 

Not a word about the content though.

[Barbaraok]

I said I read it & it is the same type of article that has been written over & over since 1984. Nothing really new

[Kirk W]

That article DOES NOT talk about the "end of Apple".

Which comment said that it does? I just read the entire thread again and I too read that article but for the life of me I do not see what you seem to think is there. It seems to be critical of Apple and clearly does point out some of the weakness in the Apple model, but as it also points out, Apple has been and so far continues to be quite successful. Failure to jump on the bandwagon of opinions does not indicate a failure to read nor some human weakness. What Barb says is true and the forums should have room for more than one viewpoint.

[Jack Mayer]

Been hearing about the end of Apple since '80s

To answer Kirk's statement.....

 

The article talks about how the Apple development/marketing model works. Again - it is not about the "end" of Apple. And to my way of thinking it is not negative at all. It simply points out that a likely new cycle of innovation will have to start.....and they tend to run on 10 year cycles. Nothing really beyond that premise, other than what we already know - and that is that smartphones are becoming "commodity" products.

[Zulu]

The analysis that says that smartphones - including iPhones - will become commodity products is spot on. You can see it happening now, pretty easily if you step back and look at the industry as a whole.

 

Exactly. Just like in this previous ZDNet article

[Biker56]

iPhone SE goes on sale this Thursday.

I love my iPhone 6 Plus and will keep it probably a few years yet.

But mine is on the camera recall list. So this fall(2 years old) I will get it traded in for a new one at no cost.

 

It fits in my front jeans pocket just right.

Connects to my car automatically when I get in it.

[RV_]

Yes, and this forum is one of the promoters of that line of thinking. The article is interesting reading, but there are other opinions and there have even been similar articles about Microsoft, but they never seem to get posted here.

 

Kirk,

Interesting reading but there are different opinions? What specific opinion from the article did you see as having different opinions than you and others hold?

 

Why aren't you posting the similar articles you refer to about Microsoft here in your own thread on this forum Kirk?

 

Directly from the article, red highlighting mine:

 

"The giant engine of manufacturing that is China is going to unleash this commoditization effect on Apple's iPhone and iPad businesses as well. What it did to the PC industry before, China will do to what is Apple's core business today.

 

Like the PC industry before it, the smartphone/mobile device industry has become so mature that there isn't much new that can be done.

 

You can make enhancements to the speed and power efficiency of the overall semiconductor bill of materials, you can increase battery efficiency, you can make sharper displays. You can add faster and larger amounts of flash storage. You can incorporate better mobile broadband technology.

 

But all of these are regular spec upgrades; they aren't major changes to the overall paradigm.

 

This is not Apple's comfort zone, and it is not the arena they like to play in. In this commodity and supply chain sandbox with Chinese and Korean ODMs, Apple loses on the playground every time one of these battles occur.

 

It lost having to play this game in the PC industry, and it will lose having to play this game with the smartphone and mobile device industry. It's the same game.

 

This is not a unique cycle and it isn't uniquely an Apple problem either. The PC vendors that can still differentiate their products -- including Microsoft with its Surface and Apple with its Macbook Air -- are two examples of those that have some interesting value add to bring to an otherwise commodity-dominated industry.

 

You could say the same for Lenovo and Dell, and to a lesser extent even HP.

 

What Apple does do well is innovate with new products, and for a period of time generates intense brand loyalty with those products. The industry calls it the "Next Big Thing", I just call it an Apple Innovation Cycle."

 

So the article is about what we all see with every electronics next big thing. What happened to the Mac is that Apple had to change to the Windows hardware to continue to compete, albeit in a higher end market. As happened to IBM who brought the PC to market. As happened to the film camera then digital which started out high and then got cheap. Consider that the best camera manufacturer cannot compete with a smart phone with Full HD video recording, and digital HD pictures easily manipulated, edited, processed, and stored in a tiny external drive, or in my case, on the Amazon cloud for free with ownership of the Android Fire TabletHDX.

 

We saw over and over from the cassette tape "Walkman" that went through the high to low cost which along the way included copying, making it smaller yet more feature rich, then changing the format to disk for instant track selection rather than fast forward and rewind, then stored on a chip and then mop3 and the iPod.

 

From computers to vehicles like as the article points out, brand loyalty can only stand so much pressure.

 

The fun thing about these articles is to see what comes in the next ten years from all the players and all their marketing moves.

 

I too expect great things from Apple. It's fun to getthe cheaper copies like the Android phones coming out for between $100-150.00 now here as an example: http://www.gearbest.com/promotion-cell-phone-clearance-special-5.html

 

See it is already here.

 

Microsoft mobile has not competed well before now and still it is impossible for me to buy many devices and use the App allowing me to use my Windows Phone. And the demise of the MS smartphone effort has also been written about. BTW MS is setting up and easy cross platform developer toolset that will be popular because it also can port Apple apps to Android and vice versa, but adds Microsoft mobile apps in that easy for developers to increase their sales without focusing on just the Apple store or Google Play store. Developers tend to stay in the platform (OS) they know. But would love to get revenues form all three if upkeep and management were easy. MS isn't the only one working on similar developer tools. So Apps are soon getting commoditized too. I am at a distinct advantage having a Windows phone in that respect. But developers won't be using those tools just because they want to write one App say for Apple to Windows too. It makes it easier for the smaller one man companies to do their Apple or Android app for the other store, many not caring to port to such a small mobile market as MS has now.

 

There are lots of races on now that pose really interesting questions about what is next. And how all the players have to come up with it every so often or get eaten by the commodity tablets/phones/PCs/hybrids from China.

 

Today's examples:

Smartphone

These specs and more for $79.73 :

DOOGEE X5 Pro 4G Smartphone - BLACK 145399001

5.0 inch Android 5.1 Quad Core MTK6735 64bit 2GB + 16GB OTG OTA

http://www.gearbest.com/cell-phones/pp_234310.html?wid=1 (before you blow these off as a cheap junk phone read the 243 reviews from all over the world)

 

13.3" Windows 10 tablet convertible for $224.99

VOYO VBook V3 Ultrabook Tablet PC - WIFI VERSION ORANGE 167193201

13.3 inch Windows 10 Intel Cherry Trail Z8300 Quad Core 1.44GHz 4GB RAM 64GB ROM IPS Screen Bluetooth 4.0

http://www.gearbest.com/tablet-pcs/pp_285131.html#customer_review

 

Despite the names being ones most do not recognize, Like Taiwan's Foxconn, now manufacturing on mainland China, was never heard of until their treatment of employees at their Apple factory made news. Those in the know, know that the same happens in all the factories for all electronics at one time or another. And that the folks who make Apple products also make other brand products like Dell/HP/etc. Those factories are called ODMs or (Original Design Manufacturers) They act like it is a big secret but all one has to do is know the names of the ODM and google it with new contracts:

http://www.voanews.com/content/apple-contractor-foxconn-seeks-wider-reach-after-china-flaps/1855273.html

 

Foxconn is primarily a contract manufacturer and its clients include major Chinese, American, Finnish, Japanese, and Canadian electronics and information technology companies. Notable products that the company manufactures include the BlackBerry,[5] iPad,[6] iPhone,[7] Kindle,[8] PlayStation 4, Playstation 3, Xbox One, Nokia and Wii U. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foxconn

 

Now folks will say that is a slam against Apple with a chip on their shoulder when in fact it is against the maker of the Microsoft Xbox, The Sony PlayStation, Wii, and my Lumia phone too, if I took criticism personally about my choices in electronics!

 

This isn't new. Here's who made the XBox for MS in 2005 IN CHINA!

 

"Today, Microsoft announced which companies will be producing Xbox 360. Flextronics and Wistron (who worked on the first Xbox) and Celestica (a new partner with Microsoft) will be manufacturing the game system in their plants in China. Microsoft went on to reiterate that the a global launch of the 360 "remains on track."

 

"It's an honor to have the expertise and support of three of the world's best-in-class manufacturing companies as we move into the next-generation with Xbox 360," said Corporate Vice President of Xbox Product Group, Todd Holmdahl. "With three contract manufacturers on board, we're poised to have the flexibility and efficiencies we need to keep up with the consumer demand for the world's most powerful next-generation platform."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2005-08-15/xbox-360-manufacturers-revealed

 

You know it is really disingenuous to take industry realities today as personal slams.

 

I bought the First MS Surface and wrote scathing articles about how MS dropped the ball and it could not do any email except the Cloud Outlook! I hated it so much I sold it after a months and posted here about it, and how I was giving up on 8 when I had only a desktop no touch. It did teach me where a lot of things were in the then new Windows 8. But was ill conceived and a complete flop totaling millions in losses as a write off. Ballmer's last stand and he went down just like Custer, for some of the same reasons.

 

I think it is fascinating to peek behind the curtain and see that OZ is no great powerful being.

 

What makes MS criticisms so hard to remember is because we don't jump up defending it against the truth. When it sucks, we all say it and try to workaround it or get MS to fox it. Microsoft jumps in taking responsibility and never leaves the customers wondering in their silence. So it is not a satisfying target for critics because they and we seek out any issues, why? To fix them. All OS' do update and patches and performance improvements all the time some on schedules others not. NO one is still using OS 1.0 on anything, except maybe IoT firmware/software and that IS scary.

 

So where do we think the phone market will go from here? Is there any more innovation that isn't "borrowed" from competitors by all?

 

Me, I believe that the desktop as we know it will not exist in 2030. And If I get to be 78 I will live to see it.

 

Safe computing!

[RV_]

Biker,

Showoff! I too am selling my HHR now like you, and getting another set of wheels. And since I will keep a diesel truck (Ram) if I can convince the factory here to let a local in on one of the prototype 100 being made, I'd love to make it an Elio. My wife's car and my truck fit all needs. The reason I could not get rid of the HHR like you did bud is that Skylar, my buddy of ten years, had hip dysplasia and other issues and needed a vehicle low enough for me to help him up into it alone without injuring my back any more. My buddy of ten years died suddenly a month ago, of either a massive stroke, or embolism that left him paralyzed, and he failed overnight. Maggie is a little athlete and can jump up into the back of an Elio or into my truck. Still loving your new car I see? I have to use a Jabra to connect in the car. Hands free is the way to go.

 

I'm waiting to see how I like or hate MS Windows mobile 10. If they ever come pout with it. They have blown three deadlines from November to now for it and I haven't seen it yet. If it is for refining it, then great, if not or it has major issues not fixed within a month or so I might have to try an iPhone for a while. It is the only one I haven't used yet. And my old friend uses it and an iPad so I have learned to retrieve user PWs and IDs as well as working with Apple phone support. They are as good or better than Dell, but much easier to understand. I got an American I think on both calls.

[RV_]

Jack, Thanks, That is exactly how I read it. The above with examples of direct to consumer Chinese products shocks most folks and I bought one of their Mini computers and it was as good as anything I've used. But they are not for folks that are not tech oriented because you can forget about talking to tech support in some cases. But the margins for resellers makes me wonder how long before the corner cell phone repair company becomes a major retailer too. The reviews say it might be a good risk.

 

Watches went from expensive the better the time keeping to now being a real electronic commodity. I got a dive watch at WalMart that exceeds the specs for about a tenth of the price as my old dive watch from the 1990s. And only $16.50?? Good to 300 feet depth and Most recreational divers don't go more than 100feet. Me I prefer NDL dives if I ever get the back fixed right. My dive days may indeed be over if not. .: http://www.walmart.com/ip/Casio-Men-s-Analog-Dive-Style-Watch-Black-Resin/17403596

[Jack Mayer]

Buying direct from China on "unbranded" products is always a "crap shoot". I did buy a "Go Pro" which was a great deal, and seems to do everything the Go Pro (real one) does. For such a ridiculous price that it was a "throwaway" if it did not work.... but it works quite well. It did take 20+ days to arrive.

[Kirk W]

. I did buy a "Go Pro" which was a great deal, and seems to do everything the Go Pro (real one) does. For such a ridiculous price that it was a "throwaway" if it did not work.... but it works quite well. It did take 20+ days to arrive.

You mean a Go Pro knock-off? Which one did you buy? I keep looking at them but so far have resisted temptation.

[RV_]

I agree Jack,

That's why I said not for the non-tech types. But the good deals are great! I only report on the ones I have used and played with or owned. A buddy has an iPhone and iPad but the land owner program He buys and sells land in large and small parcels and needed a very expensive program that gives the exact locations and detailed plat info as well as the owner and owner contact info.he bought has no dedicated iPad app just the phone app, and his iPad would not let him load a phone app! The Apple phone support could not get it to take it either and said he'd need a newer iPad. Since they also have an Android app, I ordered him a tablet from Gearbest that is a combo Android and Windows 10. ~ $100.00. I'll post a review for you Android/Windows fence riders.

 

Jack I remember when Japanese was junk and they got to be the best in their fields in about ten years and their optics beat the German optics. Because of their worldwide sales the Japanese standard of living, and cost of labor went up so we and they went looking for a replacement cheap labor pool and Korea was up.Then the labor pool went to Korea. Those were the days of the Goldstar junk before they changed their name to LG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LG_Corporation , and the days of the Daiwoo that went toes up. They got their duality up and their standard of living and cost of labor went up and all turned to Taiwan. They started doing a really good job building pretty much all the world's computers from about 1995 on. S. Korea and Taiwan began building Fab plants in mainland China, who has an almost limitless supply of cheap labor. China is now emerging as a quality player in some areas and even they are outsourcing some of their Fabs to Indonesia and Vietnam. Thailand's flood plain has been the location of a vast majority off the world's hard drives.

[rynosback]

iPhone SE goes on sale this Thursday.

I love my iPhone 6 Plus and will keep it probably a few years yet.

But mine is on the camera recall list. So this fall(2 years old) I will get it traded in for a new one at no cost.

 

It fits in my front jeans pocket just right.

Connects to my car automatically when I get in it.

What recall list?

[Biker56]

iPhone 6 Plus Camera Recall good for 3 years

Input your S/N at the link to check if yours is included

[TheDuke]

Interesting comments.

1. Someone doesn't understand what "the end of Apple as we know it " means. Evidently to her it means The End. Do you even know how many transformations Apple has gone through?

2. Some one else wonders why the articles he has read about Microsoft demise don't appear here. Do you know that when you read them you can post them here?

 

Re the article: Has anyone read about their latest IPhone? Going smaller again. I will wait to see how 'Innovative' that is and if it will transform the Industry.

[Jack Mayer]

You mean a Go Pro knock-off? Which one did you buy? I keep looking at them but so far have resisted temptation.

HERE is the one I got. It seems to work well. I've shot a few hours on it. GoPro accessories work with it....at least everything I have tried. Their kits of accessories are far cheaper than the ones in stores, as you would expect.

 

There is a 4K Ultra HD version of this as well. But for my purposes the 1080p was sufficient. The wifi is simply the ability to connect a phone to it for remote shooting. You do not transfer with wifi...you have to remove the memory chip to load it on your computer - I have not figured out how to do the transfer by pluggin in the device to the computer. Very few instructions - which is typical.

 

I'd buy it again.

[dougdogs]

IPhone will be around for ever.

 

Just like the Palm Pilot and Blackberry

[RV_]

Hey Duke,

Amen. I forgot to tell that person that aside from being untrue, all my posts are still here, and I dare him to find one post of mine that is slamming Apple or its users, or is claiming that Apple is going down the tubes, and post it here. False accusations here about my posts, or any others are easily checked.

 

I post about vulnerabilities that are in the daily tech news dailies that I read about all of the OS'.

 

Jack, despite the fact that I don't use Android that much, read my post about it next.

[Zulu]

I forgot to tell that person that aside from being untrue, all my posts are still here, and I dare him to find one post of mine that is slamming Apple or its users, or is claiming that Apple is going down the tubes, and post it here. False accusations here about my posts, or any others are easily checked.

 

I post about vulnerabilities that are in the daily tech news dailies that I read about all of the OS'.

 

Derek, sometimes methinks you doth protest too much.