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Five Wood

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Everything posted by Five Wood

  1. Ray, I signed up for the webinar and it was today. True to form with me and computers. . . I screwed it up and was unable to watch the webinar. But all was not lost. There was an attachment that had a great deal of info on TFL. So it all worked out. Thanks for the tip. Jim
  2. RV I didn't realize there were no co-pays with Medicare. Jim
  3. I turn 65 in October. I'm surprised at how easy the switch-over is from Tricare Select to Medicare and Tricare For Life. Most all of the process is automatic unless I want to decline Medicare Part - B (which I don't). So other than setting up an account at the Medicare website. . . I've done pretty much nothing, which I've become very good at. Of course, in October I may be singing a different tune, but so far this is a breeze. Jim
  4. Sounds like you made a good decision on buying and selling you Tesla stock. Good luck in the search for a new home. Jim
  5. I think his apology is very well written but it was penned for the wrong reasons. In his letter he mentions his business and his employees. He clearly understands the adverse economic results his careless actions will have on his business and I think that is probably the only real regret he has. The depth of his appreciation for what that arch is, is probably limited to just "oh that's cool". And at his point in his life his level of appreciation will probably not change much. I would like to see the Park Service offer him a deal. Offer him the choice of a $10,000 fine or 150 hours of public service working with a park service restoration team for him and each member of his family. For the mother and father it will simply be punishment for being stupid. But for the kids they may learn an appreciation for what it takes to repair or minimize the damage people like their parents cause. And the kids may actually learn how treasures like that arch are formed. Jim
  6. I dunno Barb. . . 5 cases to last two people the entire winter seems rather austere to me. Personally, I'd be getting nervous around Valentines day. Jim
  7. I started investing in 1985 and when the fall of 87 came around I was like the proverbial "deer in the headlights". I was shocked. But it was very interesting and quite a learning experience. Jim
  8. RV I found it interesting that this Vermont utility was promoting and actually offers financing to customers for the installation of Tesla residential battery packs. http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/vermont-sells-tesla-batteries/ Jim
  9. This is a good thread that should be revived. As an investor, this is good reading for me. Many of us posting here over the years were right and many of us posting here were wrong. That doesn't really matter. That's what makes the markets. So what are the current thoughts on where we are heading? Jim
  10. RV I think there has been a misunderstanding about my post above. It was not intended as a negative comment on you or your Tesla investment. I was simply making the comment that, in my opinion, timing the market rarely works over the long run. Any comments that I have made to you on your Tesla investment have been intended to be supportive. I enjoy investing and I enjoy talking with other investors about it. And I regret that you have misunderstood my intention. Your second paragraph has me scratching my head a bit. I probably did suggest taking some profit after Tesla had it's initial run up. That sounds like something I would say. I see that as a prudent course of action for a conservative investor who has a stock that has had a massive run up in a short period of time. The part about "uncloaking" I don't understand. I assume I must have sent that comment in a private e-mail rather than a public post, so as to avoid a public discussion on the merits of selling Tesla, and that may be what your referring to. But I can't believe I would not have signed the e-mail. Your last paragraph I assume refers to my post of several months ago (above) when I was responding to your comment that you would like to add to your Tesla position if the stock drops to 120. Your response to that post made it apparent that I had again not made myself clear, so I thought it best to just drop it. That strategy has nothing do do with shorting a stock. In fact, it is an extremely conservative way to add to a position at a lower cost basis, when the investor knows the price at which he would like to buy. RV, my posts to you on Tesla are never meant to be negative. I unfortunately fail to make my intentions clear. I wish you well with your investments. Jim
  11. Kirk, I don't know if the original poster is around or not. I always find this thread interesting and if you read the first post it was about fear of a market meltdown. Since then the Dow has risen about 50%. In that time there were many posts here about fear of a market decline and how people were timing the market by jumping in and out. I wonder how many of those who bounced in and out of the market made over 50% in the past 5 years? Jim
  12. RV I can't remember if I presented this strategy to you in the past or not. If I did, or you are aware of the process, please disregard. TSLA is at 162.50 as of today's close. You say that you would be happy to buy it at 120. The stock has already had a large drop and from here down to 120 is another 26 percent drop. Assume that you wanted to buy an additional 100 shares at 120. The March 2016 120 Put options on Tesla closed at 2.80 per share today. One contract covers 100 shares, so that gives it a value of 280.00. You can sell one contract for $280.00 and that amount will immediately be credited to your account. In return for selling that option you are now obligated to buy 100 shares of TSLA at $120.00 at any time between now and the third Friday in March. If it falls to $110 you are still obligated to buy it at $120, but that is the point that you would have executed a buy order on it anyway. If TSLA goes bankrupt between now and the third Friday in March. . . you are still obligated to buy the shares at $120. If TSLA does not reach 120 in the next six weeks you keep the $280.00 and the Put option you sold expires worthless. This gives you a 20% annualized return on your amount at risk. . . which was $12,000. . . 120 per share times 100 shares in the contract. This amount will then lower your cost basis on the shares that are in your TSLA position. Assume TSLA only falls to 140. . . you will then re-write the put option at 120 or lower and the process starts again. If TSLA goes up, you still keep the premium and your cost basis on the core position is further reduced. A stock will only do one of five things. . . 1. Goes up dramatically 2. Goes up gradually 3. Trends sideways 4. Goes down gradually 5. Goes down dramatically (including bankruptcy) This process of acquiring stock, or adding to a position, allows you to make a profit in four of the five possible scenarios. Those are pretty good odds. If an investor has a firmly defined level at which he or she will enter a position or add to an existing position this is an excellent way to generate profits as you wait for that price point to arrive. If it never arrives, you are still money ahead. I'm not making any recommendation here or offering any financial advice. In fact, TSLA is not a stock I would invest in (no offence intended RV) it's just not my type of investment. But I have found this to be a very good way to open new positions or add to existing positions. Jim
  13. Smitty, "Dividend Reinvestment Plans" or DRIPS are a great way to dollar cost average into the market, for long term holdings. Jim
  14. Dave & Diane I am no expert either. . . no one here is. But just looking at your statement. . . you obviously have an investment plan and you're following it. . . without panic. In my opinion, that places you far above the 5% you lay claim to. I really do believe that any serious investor must have an investment plan and it must be in writing. He or she must always follow this plan and he or she must always be willing to adjust the plan. But any serious investor must have a plan. "Buy and hope" rarely works. Jim On edit: If all else fails you and I can drive for UBER
  15. RV They were always interesting to read. Another one I liked to follow was "Mac". I think he had a website devoted to Casino parking and the like. Duke I get a bit leery of stocks or mutual funds from other countries. I've owned and still own stocks from Canada and Western Europe, but that's about the extent of my trust.
  16. I see this thread moving down in the active list and I hate to see it go. Many of us have contributed to it over the years it has been active and I have found it very interesting to read it over again occasionally to see what people thought at different points in the cycle of our economy. As a means to keep a worthy thread alive I would ask. What was the worst stock investment you ever made? For me it was a difficult choice, as there have been some doozies. But if I have to choose one it would be a gold miner called Barrick Gold Corp. . . formerly known as American Barrick ticker symbol “ABX”. In Feb of 2012 I felt the need to add some exposure to gold in my portfolio. I purchased ABX at 48.45 per share. ABX now trades at 12.75! Over the past three years, through various “rescue strategies” I have lowered my cost basis to 25.40. Eventually I will work my way out of this position at a profit and it’s actually a lot of fun to work at it. My advice on commodity stocks such as ABX. . . don’t do it. There are just too many variables. So let’s hear it. What was your worst stock investment? Jim
  17. Ron & Elena's post above makes some very good points. In my opinion attempting to time the market by jumping in and out because of what you think may happen is extremely difficult and very risky. Staying invested all the time and "working those investments" with what the market presents to you today is a much more sound approach. The sector rotation approach that you describe is an intelligent way to move around your investments. A little research will show that many stocks follow patterns in relation to interest rates, business cycles, etc. I too read the "Seeking Alpha" site regularly. I am leery of many of the authors there though because literally anyone can publish on the site. With that said though you can find some very interesting authors. Chuck Carnevale is one that I follow. He owns a charting website and posts articles often. He has a very clearly defined conservative investment style and he is always an interesting read.
  18. Derek I never owned the stock. It's not the type of stock I would buy (too risky). I was just glad to see it going the way you had hoped. I was just stopping in Dubai on my way from Afghanistan back to the states. The company was paying for the flight. My contract is up and looking forward to wandering around a bit in the RV.
  19. Derek, I'm sitting in the Dubai airport reading about TSLA and watching the stock jump and it makes me smile. Probably not as much as you though. So are you going to sell it at this level or hold? Jim
  20. The next few months are certainly going to be interesting in the markets. We have the election and the "fiscal cliff" issue that must be dealt with. It's all rather exciting. But then again. . . maybe this Mayan doomsday thing will come true and there will be nothing at all to worry about Jim
  21. MBnKen I would like to clarify something. I don't think it was your intention but some could read your post and come away with the impression that I said "If you can't figure out how to make money as the market fluctuates and responds to world events, then just sit on the sidelines and whine." I never said that nor do I feel that way. In my original post I was simply showing a way of investing that has worked well for me for quite some time. I do not agree with those who try to time the market but would never ridicule them. It takes all kinds of investors to make the economic world go-round.
  22. Mike and Lori Apple is an amazing company. If you held on to those remaining 300 shares you have done well. If I remember correctly, about the time you bought your shares everyone thought the company was on the brink of going under. I think Apple will be studied in economics classes for many years to come. I love Panera Bread as a store. The company doesn't fit my investment criteria so I can't touch it but I do enjoy going there for lunch.
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