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Five Wood

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Posts posted by Five Wood

  1. On 8/21/2020 at 5:00 PM, Ray,IN said:

    FIVE WOOD, This may interest you: https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USMHSTMA/bulletins/29b29eb

    It is a TRICARE online webinar explaining how MEDICARE and TRICARE work together.

    Ray,

    I signed up for the webinar and it was today.  True to form with me and computers. . . I screwed it up and was unable to watch the webinar.  But all was not lost.  There was an attachment that had a great deal of info on TFL.  So it all worked out.  Thanks for the tip.

    Jim

  2. 9 hours ago, Ray,IN said:

    I assume you've already applied for Medicare, or will soon. It's normally 2 months prior to your 65 birthday.

    Yes, I've already set up my Medicare account and have my card.

    Remember to submit/transfer all your prescriptions[for both of you-if married] to Express-Scripts, co-pay is now $10 for 3 month supply for generic drugs. Create an account with the Express-Scripts website to control  all your prescriptions.

    I've been using Express-Scripts for several years now.  I'm a full RV'er and it has really worked well for me.

    The TRICARE dental program[stand-alone program] is operated by Delta Dental, retirees are now in the same program as congress.

    I had Delta Dental up until a year or so ago.  Then I switched to "Tricare Federal Advantage Dental Plan" It's run by Humana.

    What medical bills Medicare does not pay are automatically forwarded to TFL for payment. It's amazing how effectively The two programs operate together.Each mail you a quarterly review of benefits paid.

    This topic is something I still have questions about.

    It would seem that I will not only have to find doctors that accept Medicare. . . but these same doctors will also have to be set up to accept Tricare?

     

    Thanks Ray

  3. I turn 65 in October.  I'm surprised at how easy the switch-over is from Tricare Select to Medicare and Tricare For Life.  Most all of the process is automatic unless I want to decline Medicare Part - B (which I don't).  So other than setting up an account at the Medicare website. . .  I've done pretty much nothing, which I've become very good at.  Of course, in October I may be singing a different tune, but so far this is a breeze.

    Jim 

  4. I think his apology is very well written but it was penned for the wrong reasons.  In his letter he mentions his business and his employees.  He clearly understands the adverse economic results his careless actions will have on his business and I think that is probably the only real regret he has.  The depth of his appreciation for what that arch is, is probably limited to just "oh that's cool".  And at his point in his life his level of appreciation will probably not change much.

    I would like to see the Park Service offer him a deal.  Offer him the choice of a $10,000 fine or 150 hours of public service working with a park service restoration team for him and each member of his family.  For the mother and father it will simply be punishment for being stupid.  But for the kids they may learn an appreciation for what it takes to repair or minimize the damage people like their parents cause.  And the kids may actually learn how treasures like that arch are formed. 

    Jim     

  5. 11 hours ago, Barbaraok said:

    But in the out-go department, we love visiting wineries,  not everyone will pull into Arizona in October  with 5 cases of wine to last through the winter.   And no, these are not $2 bottles of wine.   B)

    I dunno Barb. . . 5 cases to last two people the entire winter seems rather austere to me.  Personally, I'd be getting nervous around Valentines day.  :)

    Jim

  6. Jim,

    I agree. I believe that Tesla just gained a big advantage in that they just fired their last foreign part supplier and manufacture all their parts in house or with US suppliers. While some dinosaurs think that electric will never gain traction they need to read the press from overseas. I believe once the model 3 is in full production as well as the Gigafactory, between end of this year and 2020, we will see the sure demise of the ICE vehicles as a surety, even the diehards.

     

    I see Canada taking a more active role in world economics along with, surprisingly,Mexico and several other countries. Colombia's drug wars are over and I see their re-entry into the emerald, coffee, and tech markets as well.

     

    I am still trying to see where the odds fall in the next year or two than all the emerging solar and renewable power should take off, but not because of climate change. Simply because once the storage is resolved there are no more expenses for renewables as in train cars full of coal and oil and Natural gas. Cheap energy to produce and sell. The rest of the world took a cue from Telsa.

     

    Much more later as I get recovered from my recent surgical adventures.

     

    RV

    I found it interesting that this Vermont utility was promoting and actually offers financing to customers for the installation of Tesla residential battery packs.

     

    http://fortune.com/2015/12/10/vermont-sells-tesla-batteries/

     

    Jim

  7. This is a good thread that should be revived. As an investor, this is good reading for me. Many of us posting here over the years were right and many of us posting here were wrong. That doesn't really matter. That's what makes the markets.

     

    So what are the current thoughts on where we are heading?

     

    Jim

  8. Jim, I agree it has been a good run so far, and I believe much more to come. Again the market surprises. And we've both done well. :)

     

    BTW, if the person who emailed me way back when and advised me to take my principal off the table early, for which I am still grateful wants to uncloak you have my permission. If not, then thank you so very much for helping a raw beginner out when I asked.

     

    Another advised me to learn how to short and when I looked at the loss possibilities with what I knew about Tesla I am glad I dropped that idea. There are a lot of "soiled shorts" on Tesla forums. :lol:

     

    RV

    I think there has been a misunderstanding about my post above. It was not intended as a negative comment on you or your Tesla investment. I was simply making the comment that, in my opinion, timing the market rarely works over the long run. Any comments that I have made to you on your Tesla investment have been intended to be supportive. I enjoy investing and I enjoy talking with other investors about it. And I regret that you have misunderstood my intention.

     

    Your second paragraph has me scratching my head a bit. I probably did suggest taking some profit after Tesla had it's initial run up. That sounds like something I would say. I see that as a prudent course of action for a conservative investor who has a stock that has had a massive run up in a short period of time. The part about "uncloaking" I don't understand. I assume I must have sent that comment in a private e-mail rather than a public post, so as to avoid a public discussion on the merits of selling Tesla, and that may be what your referring to. But I can't believe I would not have signed the e-mail.

     

     

    RV

     

    I can't remember if I presented this strategy to you in the past or not. If I did, or you are aware of the process, please disregard.

     

    TSLA is at 162.50 as of today's close. You say that you would be happy to buy it at 120. The stock has already had a large drop and from here down to 120 is another 26 percent drop. Assume that you wanted to buy an additional 100 shares at 120. The March 2016 120 Put options on Tesla closed at 2.80 per share today. One contract covers 100 shares, so that gives it a value of 280.00.

     

    You can sell one contract for $280.00 and that amount will immediately be credited to your account. In return for selling that option you are now obligated to buy 100 shares of TSLA at $120.00 at any time between now and the third Friday in March. If it falls to $110 you are still obligated to buy it at $120, but that is the point that you would have executed a buy order on it anyway. If TSLA goes bankrupt between now and the third Friday in March. . . you are still obligated to buy the shares at $120.

     

    If TSLA does not reach 120 in the next six weeks you keep the $280.00 and the Put option you sold expires worthless. This gives you a 20% annualized return on your amount at risk. . . which was $12,000. . . 120 per share times 100 shares in the contract. This amount will then lower your cost basis on the shares that are in your TSLA position.

     

    Assume TSLA only falls to 140. . . you will then re-write the put option at 120 or lower and the process starts again. If TSLA goes up, you still keep the premium and your cost basis on the core position is further reduced.

     

    A stock will only do one of five things. . .

     

    1. Goes up dramatically

    2. Goes up gradually

    3. Trends sideways

    4. Goes down gradually

    5. Goes down dramatically (including bankruptcy)

     

    This process of acquiring stock, or adding to a position, allows you to make a profit in four of the five possible scenarios. Those are pretty good odds. If an investor has a firmly defined level at which he or she will enter a position or add to an existing position this is an excellent way to generate profits as you wait for that price point to arrive. If it never arrives, you are still money ahead.

     

    I'm not making any recommendation here or offering any financial advice. In fact, TSLA is not a stock I would invest in (no offence intended RV) it's just not my type of investment. But I have found this to be a very good way to open new positions or add to existing positions.

     

    Jim

     

    Your last paragraph I assume refers to my post of several months ago (above) when I was responding to your comment that you would like to add to your Tesla position if the stock drops to 120. Your response to that post made it apparent that I had again not made myself clear, so I thought it best to just drop it. That strategy has nothing do do with shorting a stock. In fact, it is an extremely conservative way to add to a position at a lower cost basis, when the investor knows the price at which he would like to buy.

     

    RV, my posts to you on Tesla are never meant to be negative. I unfortunately fail to make my intentions clear. I wish you well with your investments.

     

    Jim

  9.  

    EDIT: I went back to take a peak at the person who made the first post in this thread........ Check it out as they seem to not exist any longer...... Or did they ever exist? :huh:

     

    Kirk,

    I don't know if the original poster is around or not. I always find this thread interesting and if you read the first post it was about fear of a market meltdown. Since then the Dow has risen about 50%. In that time there were many posts here about fear of a market decline and how people were timing the market by jumping in and out.

     

    I wonder how many of those who bounced in and out of the market made over 50% in the past 5 years?

     

    Jim

  10. Tesla is way down and the financials come out next Wednesday I believe. and then it will fall more, stabilize then rise, or rise from there. It will IMO rise again but I have been wrong before in my life, just not about Tesla. If it gets down to 120 or less I am buying more again. Tesla is very volatile as you can see today. The shorts are having a field day saying they were right just like they did in the September to November Telsa drop from 270 to 120 in 2013. I wasn't fast enough to get it at 120 and did get a block for 130 or so. ($135?) We'll see. I want to remind folks that it is volatile enough that unless you have held it long since it IPO'd in mid 2010, it could aggravate any stress or heart disorders you might have regularly! :lol:;) . We just grin and hope for a buy opportunity and it looks like it is coming. Been through this at the $50, $100 $185, and twice now in the $270 range, give or take 25 bucks points in 2010-2012, and 2012-2016. I am in long and only regret I didn;t sell high to rebuy twice as much at this point. But I did that at 90 to try it and then it only went up. Since I took back $5k more as a profit, I just upgraded my cars, had $10k left over, bought some SCTY, sold it for not enough volatility and bought more Tesla when it was down in 2013, and now have almost 3/4ths of our original shares, and are playing with only a tiny bit of our money.

     

    I am not encouraging anyone to buy Tesla because if it tanks you are on your own. But since this ride I am still on was a big part of this thread from 2011 to date, today I thought I'd update everyone.

     

    Safe travels and trades!

     

    RV

     

    I can't remember if I presented this strategy to you in the past or not. If I did, or you are aware of the process, please disregard.

     

    TSLA is at 162.50 as of today's close. You say that you would be happy to buy it at 120. The stock has already had a large drop and from here down to 120 is another 26 percent drop. Assume that you wanted to buy an additional 100 shares at 120. The March 2016 120 Put options on Tesla closed at 2.80 per share today. One contract covers 100 shares, so that gives it a value of 280.00.

     

    You can sell one contract for $280.00 and that amount will immediately be credited to your account. In return for selling that option you are now obligated to buy 100 shares of TSLA at $120.00 at any time between now and the third Friday in March. If it falls to $110 you are still obligated to buy it at $120, but that is the point that you would have executed a buy order on it anyway. If TSLA goes bankrupt between now and the third Friday in March. . . you are still obligated to buy the shares at $120.

     

    If TSLA does not reach 120 in the next six weeks you keep the $280.00 and the Put option you sold expires worthless. This gives you a 20% annualized return on your amount at risk. . . which was $12,000. . . 120 per share times 100 shares in the contract. This amount will then lower your cost basis on the shares that are in your TSLA position.

     

    Assume TSLA only falls to 140. . . you will then re-write the put option at 120 or lower and the process starts again. If TSLA goes up, you still keep the premium and your cost basis on the core position is further reduced.

     

    A stock will only do one of five things. . .

     

    1. Goes up dramatically

    2. Goes up gradually

    3. Trends sideways

    4. Goes down gradually

    5. Goes down dramatically (including bankruptcy)

     

    This process of acquiring stock, or adding to a position, allows you to make a profit in four of the five possible scenarios. Those are pretty good odds. If an investor has a firmly defined level at which he or she will enter a position or add to an existing position this is an excellent way to generate profits as you wait for that price point to arrive. If it never arrives, you are still money ahead.

     

    I'm not making any recommendation here or offering any financial advice. In fact, TSLA is not a stock I would invest in (no offence intended RV) it's just not my type of investment. But I have found this to be a very good way to open new positions or add to existing positions.

     

    Jim

  11. We still have some of our retirement portfolio invested in longer term holds, and will continue to hold, as the these stocks are in DRIP's, so leveraging back in on some solid stocks these days.

     

    Best to all,

    Smitty

     

    Smitty,

     

    "Dividend Reinvestment Plans" or DRIPS are a great way to dollar cost average into the market, for long term holdings.

     

    Jim

  12. I don't know about shocked, and in fact I probably know less about the market than 95% of the people on here but I just called the broker and pushed some more $$$ in. If it goes down next week we just might do it again. Hmm,,, I might need to look for work LOL!!!

     

    Dave & Diane

     

    I am no expert either. . . no one here is. But just looking at your statement. . . you obviously have an investment plan and you're following it. . . without panic. In my opinion, that places you far above the 5% you lay claim to.

     

    I really do believe that any serious investor must have an investment plan and it must be in writing. He or she must always follow this plan and he or she must always be willing to adjust the plan. But any serious investor must have a plan.

     

    "Buy and hope" rarely works.

     

    Jim

     

    On edit: If all else fails you and I can drive for UBER :)

  13. John (McBockalds) and Cindona, you guys still around?

     

    RV

    They were always interesting to read. Another one I liked to follow was "Mac". I think he had a website devoted to Casino parking and the like.

     

     

    Many many years ago when I bought an india mutual fund. I think it started tanking the day.

     

    Duke

    I get a bit leery of stocks or mutual funds from other countries. I've owned and still own stocks from Canada and Western Europe, but that's about the extent of my trust.

  14. I see this thread moving down in the active list and I hate to see it go. Many of us have contributed to it over the years it has been active and I have found it very interesting to read it over again occasionally to see what people thought at different points in the cycle of our economy.

     

    As a means to keep a worthy thread alive I would ask. What was the worst stock investment you ever made? For me it was a difficult choice, as there have been some doozies. But if I have to choose one it would be a gold miner called Barrick Gold Corp. . . formerly known as American Barrick ticker symbol “ABX”.

     

    In Feb of 2012 I felt the need to add some exposure to gold in my portfolio. I purchased ABX at 48.45 per share. ABX now trades at 12.75! Over the past three years, through various “rescue strategies” I have lowered my cost basis to 25.40. Eventually I will work my way out of this position at a profit and it’s actually a lot of fun to work at it.

     

    My advice on commodity stocks such as ABX. . . don’t do it. There are just too many variables.

     

    So let’s hear it. What was your worst stock investment?

     

    Jim

  15. Ron & Elena's post above makes some very good points. In my opinion attempting to time the market by jumping in and out because of what you think may happen is extremely difficult and very risky. Staying invested all the time and "working those investments" with what the market presents to you today is a much more sound approach.

     

    The sector rotation approach that you describe is an intelligent way to move around your investments. A little research will show that many stocks follow patterns in relation to interest rates, business cycles, etc.

     

    I too read the "Seeking Alpha" site regularly. I am leery of many of the authors there though because literally anyone can publish on the site. With that said though you can find some very interesting authors. Chuck Carnevale is one that I follow. He owns a charting website and posts articles often. He has a very clearly defined conservative investment style and he is always an interesting read.

  16. Derek

     

    I never owned the stock. It's not the type of stock I would buy (too risky). I was just glad to see it going the way you had hoped.

     

    I was just stopping in Dubai on my way from Afghanistan back to the states. The company was paying for the flight. My contract is up and looking forward to wandering around a bit in the RV.

     

     

    Dubai? Dang bud, I am just a poor re-tired person who is now self-enjoyed. Your trip likely cost half what I had to invest in Tesla. And I had to put my old petty cash account monies somewhere that makes more than .045 %! Glad you took the ride a bit. Consider the facts above before you sell it, and consider the execution and goals of Musk that has been proven.

     

  17. The next few months are certainly going to be interesting in the markets. We have the election and the "fiscal cliff" issue that must be dealt with. It's all rather exciting.

     

    But then again. . . maybe this Mayan doomsday thing will come true and there will be nothing at all to worry about :D

     

     

    Jim

  18. MBnKen

     

    I would like to clarify something. I don't think it was your intention but some could read your post and come away with the impression that I said "If you can't figure out how to make money as the market fluctuates and responds to world events, then just sit on the sidelines and whine." I never said that nor do I feel that way.

     

    In my original post I was simply showing a way of investing that has worked well for me for quite some time. I do not agree with those who try to time the market but would never ridicule them. It takes all kinds of investors to make the economic world go-round. :D

  19. I wish I understood everything you wrote. I have no idea when to buy, or sell.

     

    I went out on a limb and bought 100 shares of Apple stock back in 1998. It was 5% of my portfolio. Boy did I take a lot of criticism. The stock did nothing for quite awhile. Then it split twice so I ended up with 400 shares. That made my cost per share about $7.50/share. At one point I got very concerned and sold 100 shares to make sure I didn’t lose my initial investment. Apple is doing pretty good now days. I which I hadn’t sold that 100 shares, but I’m OK with it.

     

    Most of the rest of my investments are in Dividend stocks. Oh, I did buy Panera Bread a year ago. I just really like the company. Its up 150%. So once in a while I get lucky.

     

    Did I tell you I bought Cougar Oil @ $4.50 (Canadian). It’s on sale. I’ll make you a really good deal if you want a few hundred shares. he,he.

     

    Mike and Lori

     

    Apple is an amazing company. If you held on to those remaining 300 shares you have done well. If I remember correctly, about the time you bought your shares everyone thought the company was on the brink of going under. I think Apple will be studied in economics classes for many years to come.

     

    I love Panera Bread as a store. The company doesn't fit my investment criteria so I can't touch it but I do enjoy going there for lunch.

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