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Member Since 30 Apr 2007
Offline Last Active Feb 11 2016 08:28 PM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: When Will You Get Back In?

18 December 2013 - 03:48 PM

Yesterday would have been a good time too get back in.





I have absolutely so explanation as to why the stock market would jump 300 points on the DOW with the Fed's announcement of tapering!!!


Therefore I give up.  I will not post another thought on this finance/investing subject until the DOW or S&P500 is down over 40%.  Apparently I know nothing about our economy .


Cheers John

In Topic: When Will You Get Back In?

08 December 2013 - 04:50 PM

So yeah, Peter Schiff, says, "I actually think you're better off being in the stock market." .... I don't  think he is saying it is a good time to finally get into stocks!



Cheers John

Apparently a whole bunch of people have finally decided that 2013 is the year to get back into the stock market!  Is this market timing?  Is the thinking behind this strategy something like -  if the stock market has gotten to be this valuable then it must be a great thing to own? 

BTW a lot of market analysts point to a P/E for both the Dow and S&P of around 15 or 16 and argue that is not close to bubble range.  Has anyone noticed any of them point out that the P/E for the Russel 2000 index is around 80!?  Just wondering.


Cheers John

In Topic: Are You Still In?

07 December 2013 - 10:40 AM

Why The 4% Retirement Rule Is No Longer Safe


Wouldn't this article better fit in the thread "Will My Retirement Funds Last?"


Cheers John

In Topic: Are You Still In?

05 December 2013 - 03:21 PM

Vanguards version of asking "Are You Still In?" 


It is pretty telling when Vanguard starts sending out emails to its customers about re-balancing (certainly not called market timing!  - or is it?) with comments like:


"Buying stocks now may actually run counter to what many prudent investors should be doing,"



Cheers John

In Topic: When Will You Get Back In?

19 November 2013 - 03:56 PM

I guess I started this thread too soon.


The final revision of 1st quarter GDP was revised downward a tad too much from the original 2.6% to 1.8%.  Ouch.  Bad news, right? No, not for stocks, they are rallying like there is no end to QE free money in sight. And they may be right!


No, I don't think Ben is going to be tapering QE any time soon. 

Not to blow my horn or anything like that!   You heard it hear first.  "No, I don't think Ben is going to be tapering QE any time soon."


The Fed is currently IMO pathologically afraid to taper because they know they have created a huge bubble in stocks.  The weird thing is they are not surprised, it was all planned out!


Let me admit, the Fed has been way smarter, but also way more devious, than I had originally thought possible.  I believed Ben when he said and still says that the purpose of QE was to get banks to make more loans to business and consumers to get the economy growing like it normally does.  So I thought the Fed was not very smart because interest rates were already plenty low in in 2008/09, to get business/consumers to borrow if they wanted to.  In fact interest rates were so low that banks were not willing to make many loans.  So I could see no economic growth benefit from lowering interest rates even lower through QE. 


Ah, but the Fed never expected lower interests rates via QE to induce more loans - they were not as dumb as I thought.  No, from the beginning, I believe, they knew and expected what QE was (and still is) going to do was lower interest rates so low that bonds and money market funds would generate zilch yield/income and this would make stocks look more and more attractive.  They have succeeded at that and that is the devious part of their QE plans.  But the next step in the QE plan is that people/consumers with every rising stock values are suppose to feel wealthier and start buying more stuff and thus business will produce more and the economic will start growing again like normal. 


Ah, but that last step has mostly failed.  In fact it is based on one economic theory whereas another theory says consumers don't increase spending due to what are perceived as temporary increases in the stock values - they need much more permanent increases in wealth before increasing spending.  The second theory, so far, seems to be right.  But the Fed are persistent little cusses and I think they are figuring they will just keep pressing ahead with QE, keep interest rates low, and thereby keep stock prices rising until the dirty little consumers finally start spending more.  Their fear is the bubble pops before that happens.


So yeah, Peter Schiff, says, "I actually think you're better off being in the stock market."  But I am pretty sure this is about the first time he has said this.  He too knows, and has been saying right along, stocks are in a bubble.  So he also means that if you are in stocks you'd better have a really good exit strategy if you want to hold on to these inflated gains. I don't think he is saying it is a good time to finally get into stocks!


Problem is that companies managing mutual funds (different from brokerage accounts) do not make it easy to get out of and back into those mutual funds. 



Cheers John