Jump to content


Member Since 30 Apr 2007
Offline Last Active Feb 11 2016 08:28 PM

Posts I've Made

In Topic: When Will You Get Back In?

18 December 2013 - 03:48 PM

Yesterday would have been a good time too get back in.





I have absolutely so explanation as to why the stock market would jump 300 points on the DOW with the Fed's announcement of tapering!!!


Therefore I give up.  I will not post another thought on this finance/investing subject until the DOW or S&P500 is down over 40%.  Apparently I know nothing about our economy .


Cheers John

In Topic: Will My Retirement Funds Last?

13 December 2013 - 09:18 PM


The new reality




And we could read again this good link you posted back in 2011 Rethinking Stocks For The Long Haul.  Some might easily point out that Chris Farrell was apparently wrong since stocks have zoomed since his article.  That would be the typical short run criticism of what was a long run analysis.  I still think the prevailing security that most folks have in the stock market has its roots in Jeremy Siegel's Stocks For The Long Run even with its errors of statistical analysis as pointed out by other analysts, but which have all but been forgotten.



One more interesting one:



Really important to spend some time with the great graph/simulation at the end of the article.  One key thing to notice and think about is that even with the lower 4% withdrawal rate look at how the portfolio drops from 2000 to 2012.  Also notice that what saves the 4% rate (but does not save the 5%rate!) is the biggest stock market bubble (since the 20s) from 1984 to 2000.  Counting on another such massive bubble is about as good a retirement plan as counting on winning the lottery. :D


Cheers John

In Topic: The Great Deformation

13 December 2013 - 03:37 PM

What makes it too important, because you say so?

This is like McNamara deciding years later that the Vietnam War was wrong.


Yes.  The only appropriate response to your question I could think of.


Cheers John

In Topic: The Great Deformation

13 December 2013 - 09:10 AM

I didn't have to read an entire book to figure that out. The only interesting thing, is that a Republican figured it out.

This book is too important to have this thread blocked because of unnecessary political ridicule.

In Topic: The Great Deformation

13 December 2013 - 08:37 AM

Book Report?




Of course!  :)

Pick your favorite chapter or two and tell us what was most insightful or helpful in understanding some major point Stockman is arguing.  I have only skimmed about five chapters, but in the table of contents I see a bunch that I am looking forward to reading thoroughly. Such as, Chapter 13, "Milton Friedman's Folly" and all of Part IV, "The Age of Bubble Finance."


Cheers John