Two pieces of news. First off Space X (Space Exploration) launched their Falcon rocket and Dragon capsule to the ISS successfully and made history in the process. Even though Boeing and Lockheed fought them with their lobbyists inside the beltway and said that no company could design, build and test a reliable launch vehicle in the short time frame Space X said they would, Space X did anyway. I put this here because it is related to my past posts and those who have paid attention already know how it does. Firstly like Tesla they did what all the naysayers with different interests said could not be done (hoped anyway.) Secondly like Tesla they actually delivered on time with no giant increases in costs. And in both cases Space X and Tesla both did very expensive vehicles and made them better faster, and cheaper than their counterparts in Rockets and super cars.
The owner of Space X will be taking it to IPO sometime in the near future. I would watch for it. The reason I think that these companies will succeed is that they take a similar approach to Lockheed's Skunkworks of the 50's which produced the C-130 and the SR-71 in under a year each and both are still flying daily or flyable and retired. They were modeled after Bell Labs and fostered the kind of free thinking not corporate red tape laden engineering and fun for the engineers at work that they made great leaps without CEOS getting in the way or greedy corps. Very much like the best companies from Silicon valley where the dress code is hoodies and T-shirts because the important thing isn't appearance but substance.
They have a lot in common with Pay Pal too, a silicon valley company, as well in both management style and value through substance.
The news on Tesla is that it along with many others is down and with the worldwide panic may get down to my buy point of 22.5 briefly again. Briefly you say? You bet! See the Model S begins deliveries in the next two to four weeks and once they show they delivered again. As they did when they delivered the first roadsters in 2008 when no one thought a performance all electric super car for less than the lowest priced real super car was priced could even be done poorly, let alone successfully with all the first year sold out in advance and all of the cars paid for, up front, in full.
Remember that I am the least experienced person here in investing directly in the stock market. Here is my call with no confidence in the timing only that I believe that these events actually are about to happen. They could take a month or a week, but near term, here is what is going to go down. The stock will follow the decline of the market creating a buy opportunity. Then the first Model S will be delivered and many previous investors realizing that the other stocks etc. are not a hedge against high fuel prices and that there are no havens that will make a profit will possibly jump into or back into Tesla. But regardless, Elon and his company will continue to produce them ad reap economies of scale, eventually producing the elusive family car at family car prices. I do not doubt he will get there. So I expect the stock to be volatile and provide a buy price and sell price in the next few weeks. Timing it? Well don't look to me for that. I should have sold half and took my principal back at 38 but did not. But watch and see if the events don't happen exactly as I posted back almost two years ago in 2010 when I first bought on their IPO. Granted he could die or get in an accident and not be able to lead. But then again I could too!
For those who missed it, Elon Musk who owns Tesla, also invented with two friends and sold Pay Pal, and also owns Space X outright pretty much and is a rocket scientist de facto. Not for everybody but like they always say, and folks have difficulty doing, I choose to buy low and sell high. I may lose but not from fear. From miscalculating a product and the demand. But I have not done that often.
Happy investing folks, it has become one heckuva buyer's market. It won't last which is good news for some and bad news for others. See even seller's markets never last either. It is a cycle. And it is time for Elon Musk like companies to take over and actually make things happen instead of reaping with no sowing, as the leaders of our industries are doing now. If I were a paranoid I would think that the world recession and lower oil prices are manipulated by big interests to try to deflect Tesla and bring it down. They can't. The genie is out of the bottle. We won't need much oil, sooner than even they think. Watch.
It is just part of the cycle. All we have to do is invest wisely.
BTW declining fuel prices to even 2.90 aren't going to stop the EVs from taking over the market. To do that the markets for oil would have to deliver sub dollar a gallon gas again and Diesel cheaper than gas as it should be.
Did you know that a peppy small diesel in cars would double the mileage we expect from each size now except the smallest and maybe those too? Why only the VW TDI diesel in the US today? Why isn't the Smart Car diesel here and only in Canada.
It is volatile and that is when the most money can be made or lost. Up to us if we can.
Edited by RV, 02 June 2012 - 01:43 PM.