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#241 mcbockalds

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 06:38 PM

I know what will cause the balloon to pop, John. What I don't know is just when.
$200/barrel oil will bring the world economy to a screeching halt. If you like $4 gas, just imagine $10 gas.
What will cause $200 oil? A military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
I personally believe it's inevitable but don't know *when* it will happen. My personal, unsupported by any facts or insight, guess is between 12 and 24 months from now.
Until then it's laissez les bon temps rouller. With the very typical peaks & valleys based on the crisis de jour. (Took two years of French in high school.) :rolleyes:

ed



Could be you will be right. Could also be that it will be Espana.

Cheers John
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#242 mcbockalds

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Posted 16 April 2012 - 09:26 AM

You cannot convince people making money that they are losing money. That's a fact, Jack! ;) :D

Remember, "you don't ever count your money when sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin' done."

So how are things at the Oasis. Is Ben B. still pumping? Hussman has probably never been more negative. Some interesting quotes from his report:

I have no desire to persuade investors to abandon their discipline or make major changes to their portfolio allocations if they have considered the potential risks carefully.


I'm quite aware that the investing world has ruled out any possibility of extended market losses thanks to the confident certainty that the Fed is capable of preventing both market declines and economic downturns indefinitely.


our estimate of potential market losses over a 6-month window is now in the worst 0.5% of historical observations.


Cheers John
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#243 MBnKen

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 12:40 PM

Another great day in the market. I am glad that the volatility has returned rather than a stagnant level. Was able to buy and sell 4,000 shares in the last 5 days (2 cycles of down then up).
Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

#244 RV

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Posted 17 April 2012 - 02:19 PM

Hi John,

Just read that. Sorry the oasis is fine, I missed a sell then re-buy lower opportunity and am still up ten bucks a share. Good time to buy back for those that got out for a better price and a profit taking. I don't expect any real losses for those of us in from start, until after the Model S debut, if ever. I don't read the bad news posts and don't read the good news ones because I have come to the conclusion that the writers, like all, have a target audience who eats all they serve, and each is specific. I also don't read the positive ones as they are the same. I do not read any of them, as I am focused on this one stock IPO to date. I will also participate in any IPO he has for his Space X company if ever. I think perhaps you mistake me for a stock person of whatever title you want to add to that. I am not anything other than an investor in a specific person and company. I am not a trader, nor an advisor. Nor think anybody should or should not follow me. I don't read any links of the bombasts that are published with their if it bleeds it leads approaches. And today, most take that from either perspective, stay or get in the market, or get out or don't get in now. ;)

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#245 mcbockalds

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 09:06 AM

Just too much important information in this week's economic analysis by John Hussman to not post it. I also like his comment,

"It's important to understand that I have no intent of encouraging investors - even buy-and-hold investors - to deviate from their investment disciplines, or from thoughtfully structured portfolios. Many investors are comfortable maintaining their exposure to market fluctuations through the complete bull-bear cycle. As long as these investors are committed to that discipline - recognizing the size and regularity of periodic losses we've observed particularly over the past 12 years - my views should not affect their investment strategy. My main objective is always the same - that shareholders see the things that I am looking at so they understand what we are doing and why."



If you start to get bogged down in some of the more technical stuff in the article then just skim through that section, because more important and easier to understand analysis is "just around the next paragraph."

If you get tired reading this article, maybe you would like to watch this video that I would title, "didn't we see this movie a few years ago?"

Cheers John

Edited by mcbockalds, 14 May 2012 - 09:13 AM.

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#246 Dan Zemke

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 05:19 PM

John,

You referenced John Hussman as a source several times, which is fine. I prefer the blogs from Paul Krugman, Simon Johnson and John Taylor. They tend to be shorter and more focused than the Hussman stuff I've read. IMO, the first two are nearly polar opposites of third. They provide a good range of opinions. Krugman is as least as data intensive as Hussman. He can go off the deep-end, with his unabashed liberal leaning, but I find his data analysis and sources to be sound (unlike many think tank pieces).

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
http://baselinescenario.com/
http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/

BTW, I finished moving to 100% cash equivalents at the end of March. I'm not a market timer, but even after one big change, I found my portfolio mix to a mess - indefensible. So I decided to sell at a time that looked like it was more likely to be near a high than a low. I plan to start buying again at S&P 1275 and be fully invested (or not) by about 1140.

And for my contribution to entertainment, here is a little comic satire: http://www.dailykos....-The-Austerions

Dan

On edit: Of course, neither I, nor anyone else knows what the market will do. So if the market does not decline as much as I think it will this year, I'll join the buy on the dips crowd.

Edited by Dan Zemke, 15 May 2012 - 04:02 AM.


#247 MBnKen

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Posted 15 May 2012 - 02:52 PM

I am doing the same as Dan. Moved all our August - April market profits out of equities and a good chunk of other investments as well to cash/fixed. We will be averaging back in a little sooner than Dan. It is nice to be able to lock in the profits from the rise and to wait for some bargains. It was tempting today but will hold till lower for the long investments. I will still do some short term market trades to ride the volatility.

This is an exciting time if you like to actively invest/trade.
Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

#248 RV

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Posted 02 June 2012 - 01:36 PM

Two pieces of news. First off Space X (Space Exploration) launched their Falcon rocket and Dragon capsule to the ISS successfully and made history in the process. Even though Boeing and Lockheed fought them with their lobbyists inside the beltway and said that no company could design, build and test a reliable launch vehicle in the short time frame Space X said they would, Space X did anyway. I put this here because it is related to my past posts and those who have paid attention already know how it does. Firstly like Tesla they did what all the naysayers with different interests said could not be done (hoped anyway.) Secondly like Tesla they actually delivered on time with no giant increases in costs. And in both cases Space X and Tesla both did very expensive vehicles and made them better faster, and cheaper than their counterparts in Rockets and super cars.

The owner of Space X will be taking it to IPO sometime in the near future. I would watch for it. The reason I think that these companies will succeed is that they take a similar approach to Lockheed's Skunkworks of the 50's which produced the C-130 and the SR-71 in under a year each and both are still flying daily or flyable and retired. They were modeled after Bell Labs and fostered the kind of free thinking not corporate red tape laden engineering and fun for the engineers at work that they made great leaps without CEOS getting in the way or greedy corps. Very much like the best companies from Silicon valley where the dress code is hoodies and T-shirts because the important thing isn't appearance but substance.

They have a lot in common with Pay Pal too, a silicon valley company, as well in both management style and value through substance.

The news on Tesla is that it along with many others is down and with the worldwide panic may get down to my buy point of 22.5 briefly again. Briefly you say? You bet! See the Model S begins deliveries in the next two to four weeks and once they show they delivered again. As they did when they delivered the first roadsters in 2008 when no one thought a performance all electric super car for less than the lowest priced real super car was priced could even be done poorly, let alone successfully with all the first year sold out in advance and all of the cars paid for, up front, in full.

Remember that I am the least experienced person here in investing directly in the stock market. Here is my call with no confidence in the timing only that I believe that these events actually are about to happen. They could take a month or a week, but near term, here is what is going to go down. The stock will follow the decline of the market creating a buy opportunity. Then the first Model S will be delivered and many previous investors realizing that the other stocks etc. are not a hedge against high fuel prices and that there are no havens that will make a profit will possibly jump into or back into Tesla. But regardless, Elon and his company will continue to produce them ad reap economies of scale, eventually producing the elusive family car at family car prices. I do not doubt he will get there. So I expect the stock to be volatile and provide a buy price and sell price in the next few weeks. Timing it? Well don't look to me for that. I should have sold half and took my principal back at 38 but did not. But watch and see if the events don't happen exactly as I posted back almost two years ago in 2010 when I first bought on their IPO. Granted he could die or get in an accident and not be able to lead. But then again I could too!

For those who missed it, Elon Musk who owns Tesla, also invented with two friends and sold Pay Pal, and also owns Space X outright pretty much and is a rocket scientist de facto. Not for everybody but like they always say, and folks have difficulty doing, I choose to buy low and sell high. I may lose but not from fear. From miscalculating a product and the demand. But I have not done that often.

Happy investing folks, it has become one heckuva buyer's market. It won't last which is good news for some and bad news for others. See even seller's markets never last either. It is a cycle. And it is time for Elon Musk like companies to take over and actually make things happen instead of reaping with no sowing, as the leaders of our industries are doing now. If I were a paranoid I would think that the world recession and lower oil prices are manipulated by big interests to try to deflect Tesla and bring it down. They can't. The genie is out of the bottle. We won't need much oil, sooner than even they think. Watch.
:D

It is just part of the cycle. All we have to do is invest wisely.
BTW declining fuel prices to even 2.90 aren't going to stop the EVs from taking over the market. To do that the markets for oil would have to deliver sub dollar a gallon gas again and Diesel cheaper than gas as it should be.

Did you know that a peppy small diesel in cars would double the mileage we expect from each size now except the smallest and maybe those too? Why only the VW TDI diesel in the US today? Why isn't the Smart Car diesel here and only in Canada.

It is volatile and that is when the most money can be made or lost. Up to us if we can.

Edited by RV, 02 June 2012 - 01:43 PM.

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#249 Smitty

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 08:04 AM

So RV, that battery of your's is half charged, not half empty:)! (Oh wait, that glass of your's is half full...)

I was very pleased to see Space X success... It does show what we can do... Skunk Works was a good way of explaining the 'mental culture' of what a group of people with leadership, and in this case - good leadership, was getting out of the way and enabling, can do.

You know I recovered, and then a bit more, of my Tesla. Two times in, and two times a shuffle of position out. I retain a long position in Tesla with the balance, glass half full you know... You mentioned what was going on in the world economy, and until this equalizes to a clearer calm - I'm sitting our a few of the trembling cycles ahead... Sure, money could be made. And sure, money could be lost... I just know enough to know I don't know - so will keep the moth's in my wallet well fed for a period ahead...

So, while I'm a battery, glass, is half charged, full, kind of guy - for now I'll be a fence sitter!!! That's me, and means nothing to anyone else, as we all have different needs and perspectives - and that is not only OK, it is as it should be:)!

All my best, have fun,
Smitty
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#250 RV

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Posted 03 June 2012 - 01:14 PM

:lol: :lol: I got a charge out of your post! But I wasn't shocked by it.;)

Smitty,
No problem! I can say the only reason I stayed in in full and resisted the urge to sell half for the high of 38, again I gave hung in there for 7 or 8 of these cycles with Tesla and I am thinking it is a good risk that they will spike again in the next few weeks. Your position makes as much sense as mine does to you. I am in my mind taking a calculated risk as I could sell at 28.15 where is it is today and make the difference between half my shares at 22.5 and half at 17.5. That would be nothing to sneeze at either.

However since I have been passing along what I have done and am going to do with this stock, I just wanted to let all know that the end of what I predicted correctly, minus exact timing, ans come to pass, is almost at an end. My vision ends when Tesla starts delivering their cars. All along I was saying that was the hard decision point. And it is. Barring an inability to deliver the Model S on time, (this Month) which I doubt will happen regardless of the world markets, I then have to decide, likely next week, whether to sell half/keep half, sell it all, or hold it all.

I also wanted for everybody to connect the dots between SpaceX, Tesla, Pay Pal, and the owner of all three before IPO of Tesla, and sale of Pay Pal, Elon Musk. And be aware of all that when SpaceX goes to IPO in the next year or two. Few people have this much insight into the past and minds of the owners and results of the companies they invest in, as we do now for this next Musk company IPO. Whether anybody Buys it, stays away, or stays out of the markets because they are still too volatile, all will know SpaceX here regardless. I am glad I did not wait for it first. I expect to have more to invest in it when they are ready. Will they continue this year with Tesla? Don't forget that unlike the other car companies, this whole first year of production is already sold and deposits in hand for every one of them. The next year is a no brainer if they show they can produce the 20k cars they say they can and I think that is also almost a sure thing.

Good luck everybody and I hope you are wishing me the same. I will need it!;)

Edited by RV, 03 June 2012 - 01:16 PM.

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#251 Ron and Elena

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 10:47 AM

Some interesting opinions on Tesla for those interested in this company. I just stumbled on the article - don't personally have a dog in this fight.
http://seekingalpha...._dispatch&ifp=0
---ron
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#252 Jack Mayer

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 11:10 AM

Just a comment......

Back when I was a "trader" - which I am NOT, now - whenever I bought something (bought vs invested) I ALWAYS worked out what I would sell at on both the high and low sides BEFORE I bought it. In fact I would usually have a sell order in on it for the low side. But IMO you need to know going in what your expectations are. And mine were always in writing.....eg. in my spreadsheet or other trading tools I used. JMO.

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#253 RV

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Posted 05 June 2012 - 12:56 PM

Ron,
There's no dog in a fight from here. Peterson is predictably predictable and the follow on comments and repartee is more enlightening, as usual, than his narrow views. My like of EVs has nothing to do with the investment. Just like my like of space exploration does not make me an automatic candidate to invest in SpaceX. But I will.

The argument for Tesla as an investment is simple. After they said it could not be done and Tesla debuted the Roadster on time in 2008 as a competitor in the super car class, all everybody said was that it was too expensive for the average man.

It was a sexy super car class vehicle that was cheaper then the lowest priced sold in the class of supercars, the 911 from Porsche. Lamborghini's and Ferrari's are also more expensive than the average buyer can afford. And they are still in biz producing how many cars per year?
Tesla does not need to sell to average Joe anywhere. If they sell 20k cars a year they will be fine and in the black. That may or may not include the Mercedes badged and Toyota badged Tesla drive trains. Why does everybody want them to be GM or to produce enough cheap cars to supply the world? We already have those burning oil and gases.

So the price of oil is going down now because the oil investors that run the big hedge funds anticipate less demand so the price is artificial, we knew that. Tesla has nothing to do with it because the big oil manipulators have learned that regardless of Joe average saying the he will park his car if gas ever goes above ( Insert the whole string in your lifetime from the lips of your parents to yours recently $.50, $1.00, 1.50, and when people said over $2.50 then if it ever goes over 3 bucks) and then kept driving and buying it.


So the argument that there is no place for EVs because everybody cannot afford them would be like saying the same thing about RVs. Sure some will go out of business. Look who owns Austin and Jaguar now. But I doubt Tesla or the other Supercar makers will go away.

Tesla does not have to sell everybody, or even a large percentage to succeed. My goodness if you apply that same standard to one car company they sure could not supply everybody if all the competitors went out of business.

Elon Musk has no illusions about that either.

The question is are there enough people that want an EV to support them and I think the answer is yes. People whop say no or we will see are badly ignorant because the entire first year's production is spoken for and cash deposits paid in advance for every 2012 model Tesla Model S. Remember they are selling worldwide not just in the US.

Tesla does not have to sell Peterson a car. Talk to the folks who own them, read the blogs on their website and then read about how the owners felt about the early EV1 from GM. The word was out to keep them from getting a launch with SpaceX too.

I say don't worry, let the folks who want them buy them. They already put their down payments on their cars on order. I doubt you can talk them out of it. The world economy? If they have the money now they aren't making much keeping it in the banks, and many don't want to invest now, so using that cash today is attractive to many. Just like RVing is not for everybody. In a few years we will see won't we?


I am buying a 40 mpg gas car as it is a better way to use my money, like investing in Tesla is for me. Again not for everybody.

Edited by RV, 05 June 2012 - 12:57 PM.

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#254 mcbockalds

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Posted 08 June 2012 - 10:05 AM

Yesterday, in the mail, I got my copy of Bill Gross's June 2012 Investment Outlook and read it before going to bed. As the Sha Na Na song goes, "I couldn't sleep at all last night...."

Bill Gross is not your typical ranting, hairshirt fanatic crying, "The world is ending!" He is too smart, too educated, too responsible, too experienced, too controlled... to say that. But he certainly said the next Sha Na Na line, "Baby things weren't right..."

Well, of course the Sha Na Na couldn't be expected to include such unhip, uncool lines like Bill's:

"the 1% feed primarily off of money, not invention. They would have you believe that stocks, bonds and real estate move higher because of their wisdom, when in fact, prices float on an ocean of credit, a sea in which all fish and mammals are now increasingly at risk because of high debt and its delevering consequences."


"The global monetary system which has evolved and morphed over the past century but always in the direction of easier, cheaper and more abundant credit, may have reached a point at which it can no longer operate efficiently and equitably to promote economic growth and the fair distribution of its benefits."



"Euroland is just a localized tumor however. The developing credit cancer may be metastasized, and the global monetary system fatally flawed by increasingly risky and unacceptably low yields, produced by the debt crisis and policy responses to it."


With lyrics like that swimming around in your sleepy head, how could anyone sleep? Except perhaps for Federal Reserve economists who swim not in the real world (it is much too complicated and messy) but in their computer models of a much simpler world, where by mathematical design, crises and catastrophes never happen because they can't happen. Now that sounds like "Sha Na Na" land to me.

Cheers John
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The best things in life aren't things.
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#255 RV

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 06:35 PM

Tesla should begin delivering the new model S this Friday. The final week is here and I am having difficulty deciding whether to let it all ride, take half off the table at 38, or taking it all off the table. I am not asking for advice.

Several here are following this and some are even in it with me. It is my feeling that since others in the biz say it is a buy that it will be volatile this week especially if they are one day late. I think that buying now will yield a few bucks by the end of the week in profit but remember I am a complete beginner and do not claim to know what I am talking about with Stocks, I just followed this one and the owner from back in the Pay Pal day.

Many of you may have watched the historic docking of a commercial capsule launched by a private company succeeding and ushering in a new era of private enterprise space launches and exploration. That company, Space X, is also owned by Elon Musk, the one behind Pay Pal and Tesla. It ios expected that he will bring that company to IPO next year. I will be there too. I hope all have a great week,! (I hope I do too! :o :unsure: )

http://www.thestreet...oo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://www.thestreet...oo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://www.fool.com/...tock-moves.aspx

Safe investing!

Edited by RV, 18 June 2012 - 06:37 PM.

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#256 MBnKen

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 07:39 PM

Best luck to you whatever you decide. Hopefully it will be a nice run up for a successful company.

Investing in these times is exciting... sure beats sitting around posting gloom and doom reports or being so pessimistic that you miss the opportunities.

Go get 'em RV.
Newmar Essex w/ CRV Toad

#257 ed ed

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 08:00 PM

Yesterday, in the mail, I got my copy of Bill Gross's June 2012 Investment Outlook and read it before going to bed. As the Sha Na Na song goes, "I couldn't sleep at all last night...."

Bill Gross is not your typical ranting, hairshirt fanatic crying, "The world is ending!" He is too smart, too educated, too responsible, too experienced, too controlled... to say that.


John. Are you referring to this Bill Gross,

http://www.forbes.co...s-5-7-trillion/

or another one?

ed

#258 Bob & Mary

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 08:22 PM

RV: may your endeavors be always prosperous.

#259 RV

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Posted 18 June 2012 - 11:54 PM

Thanks guys!
I knew what was going to happen until this week. Now I am not entirely sure what will happen beyond Friday. More and more I am leaning towards taking half off the table and staying long on the rest. I don't have any other place to put cash that is worth putting it. I am sure everyone else does, but I am talking about anything I know, like I followed Tesla years before they went public. It is late and I am bushed. Hope all had a great Father's day. We did here.

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#260 RV

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Posted 19 June 2012 - 12:02 AM

Wow Ed,
That guy is seriously out to lunch. But I now see why it is hard to stay on track rather than following fears or being incapable of changing in light of new information that changed the game. I am sure the last maker of buggy whips was the best. But buggy whips were obsolete and irrelevant with the new fact of the automobile.

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Retired AF 1971-1998


When you see a worthy man, endeavor to emulate him. When you see an unworthy man, look inside yourself. - Confucius

 

“Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.” ... Voltaire