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The Future of Work


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He will never have much but he will be able to have a decent life

I think this is where much of the minimalism/simplicity move is coming from. People realizing they will never have much so learning how to be content with that. Experiences are replacing mcmansions as the goal of the younger set. I see many RVers as being in the forefront of that movement.

 

Linda Sand

Blog: http://sandcastle.sandsys.org/

Former Rigs: Liesure Travel van, Winnebago View 24H, Winnebago Journey 34Y, Sportsmobile Sprinter conversion van

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The Dunning-Kruger effect says that people who are incompetent do not realize that they are incompetent. They think that they know just as much as anyone else; often more, in fact. The Internet is crammed with evidence of this.

 

How true.

SKP #79313 / Full-Timing / 2001 National RV Sea View / 2008 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
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Yes English is the official language of Aviation and as mentioned international business Canada has two official languages. the USA has no official language To my grandparents being American meant speaking English that does not appear to be of much importance anymore. We picked up enough Spanish working at Disneyworld to get people to the restroom

but we find that most speak enough English to get around. Many tourist would want to practice their English on me. IMO being able to speak more than one language is a great benefit and I think in time that will happen in the USA.Actually English is almost a second language in Florida and some other parts of the country.

Helen and I are long timers ..08 F-350 Ford,LB,CC,6.4L,4X4, Dually,4:10 diff dragging around a 2013 Montana 3402 Big Sky

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While not strictly related to future work, The Next 100 Years predicts that the coming century will be the American century.

 

I read the book back when it came out. That was not my conclusion. Specifically Friedman's conclusion of potential War between Mexico and the United States due to Mexican nationalism, iirc.

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The next 100 years will belong to the people who have changed Pakistan and Jordan from democratic countries to what they are today. Unless something is done....trying to say this without being political or religion oriented...hard to do.

 

I agree with the tradesmen here who state that the trades are an excellent career path. It was good to me. It was funny ....back in the 70s I chose to apprentice in Refrigeration as my family had no money and university and college were not really an option. Most of my friends went to University and spent a load of money on their education and got student loans. They have never caught up to me financially. And a big bonus is that I can and do fix pretty much anything in my home, RV and vehicles.

 

The trades have changed over the years but if a person is willing to adapt and keep up they will still provide a good career.

<p>....JIM and LINDA......2001 American Eagle 40 '.towing a GMC Sierra 1500 4X4 with RZR in the rear. 1999 JEEP Cherokee that we tow as well.

IT IS A CONTENTED MAN WHO CAN APPRECIATE THE SCENERY ALONG A DETOUR.

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How do we determine who is successful, or even if we have been a success? That is one of the issues that plays into just what sort of future any person should seek. In recent years the measure by much of society has seemed to be more and more one of how much stuff and money an individual has. But is that really a good way to measure your own success? I do not believe that it is and I very much believe that line of thought has played a major role in many career and educational choices by many/most of those in industry and business today. It is my opinion that breaking free of that kind of measurement is one of the strengths of the RV community and that it plays a major role in the bond which has developed among us. The real secret of a happy life is not having enough money to be satisfied, but it is the ability to be satisfied with the income which you have.

 

Some really deep thoughts in the comments here and I am often amazed by the intellect that shows in discussions such as this within our so diverse community of RV folks. There is a lot of good reading in this thread.

Good travelin !...............Kirk

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AprilWhine and Mastercraft have caught the underlying idea of why I started the thread. Not that all the posts aren't interesting but they generally miss the point.

 

In 20 years there will be millions of unemployable people in this country - and in many other countries. We may see manufacturing come back to the US because of automation but that is not going to employ many people.

 

The Dunning-Kruger effect says that people who are incompetent do not realize that they are incompetent. They think that they know just as much as anyone else; often more, in fact. The Internet is crammed with evidence of this.

 

They believe that they deserve good jobs at decent wages. They are convinced that their skills are above average.

 

They can buy guns.

 

WDR

 

 

Very scary WDR

 

 

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I think it's statistically interesting that for all the talk of job loss in the US due to off shoring, technical advances, etc., that while the population has doubled in the last 65 years, the unemployment rate is almost exactly the same now as it was then, with the rate only varying over a relatively small range in between.

Dutch
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True, the unemployment seems to be close to the same when looking at it as a percentage. BUT if the percentage is say 5.5%.....5.5% of what. 5.5% of 200 million isn't the same as 5.5% of 400 million. Just using those numbers as an example.

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True, the unemployment seems to be close to the same when looking at it as a percentage. BUT if the percentage is say 5.5%.....5.5% of what. 5.5% of 200 million isn't the same as 5.5% of 400 million. Just using those numbers as an example.

 

Yes, but the claims seem to be that job losses have increased significantly over that period, which I would think should have skewed the numbers more than indicated.

Dutch
2001 GBM Landau 34' Class A
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2011 Toyota RAV4 4WD/Remco pump
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If a country has good exports then the result is a revenue stream which is healthy and basically capitalism at work. This is important for the economy of any country. I get very concerned when I see companies sourcing out to foreign countries and basically giving jobs away.

 

Yes the service sector can provide jobs but I always look at what is a cost to society and what is a drain on society. Any government or military or type of job that is paid for by taxes is a drain on the tax payers.....even school teachers. What is dwindling is the types of jobs that create exports that would generate the revenue stream that is sorely needed. Its ok for a government to create jobs by increasing spending on infrastructure but where is the money coming from....the tax payers. We cant keep robbing Peter to pay Paul.

 

we need manufacturing to reappear in Canada and the US. Selling our resources is not enough.

<p>....JIM and LINDA......2001 American Eagle 40 '.towing a GMC Sierra 1500 4X4 with RZR in the rear. 1999 JEEP Cherokee that we tow as well.

IT IS A CONTENTED MAN WHO CAN APPRECIATE THE SCENERY ALONG A DETOUR.

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The problem with unemployment figures is that they are manipulated by the various governments (all of them) for their own purposes. A better way to look at the numbers is as a percent of adults that could be employed. Not just those "seeking" employment.

 

You also have to take into account in these discussions the effect of full employment vs. partial employment. There are lots of people working two part time obs at relatively low salaries these days. the effect of this on society needs to be taken into account.

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Zulu: It is funny you say that because I know multiple people who were not allowed to learn the language of their parents, since the parents thought "English only" would give their kids an advantage. Now many of these kids are adults and wish they were bilingual.

My wife is Japanese and we were told by everyone to speak the mother language to our kids from the get go so they'd grow up fluent in at least two languages. However, we didn't want to "force" another culture on them,like most parents do with religion, so we justified waiting until they requested it. Big, big mistake. My daughter now teaches ESL in Japan and she's just about forgiven my wife for holding back for so many years and making it that much more difficult for her to learn a language in her teens rather than as a toddler.

Learning other languages is an absolute no brainer for todays generation.

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<Will taxi drivers disappear when self-driving vehicles are common?.....>

 

I think we're looking at a huge paradigm shift here. With artificial intelligence and mind boggling advances in technology and robotics on the horizon, the very assumption that "we need to work in order to earn money in order to fill in the blank" has to be questioned.

 

What if future generations didn't have to work? What would they do?

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Its a brave new world...a world where the outdated thinking of "I need a job" will get you left behind. We live in an ultra connected world. Its already easy to collaborate with people across the globe. The leaders of the next generation will continue to build upon that idea and things will evolve until sustainable independent work is a reality. Its already happening. Sure, we need doctors and nurses, carpanters and welders. But those who diversify and learn more than one skill will thrive. Do some software development in the morning, teach some online classes in the afternoon. Independent workers will pick the things they like to do and market their skills to multiple people...all from where ever they feel like living. There are so many opportunities for those willing to embrace it. No need for all the gloom and despair.

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Its a brave new world... Sure, we need doctors and nurses, carpanters and welders. But those who diversify and learn more than one skill will thrive. Do some software development in the morning, teach some online classes in the afternoon. Independent workers will pick the things they like to do and market their skills to multiple people...all from where ever they feel like living.

 

Sticking with your Brave New World reference, it looks like there'll be plenty to do for the Alphas and Betas, but what about those Gammas, Deltas and Epsilons who may succumb to the Dunning-Kruger effect?

SKP #79313 / Full-Timing / 2001 National RV Sea View / 2008 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
www.rvSeniorMoments.com
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"What if future generations didn't have to work? What would they do? "

 

​Well, a lot of them aren't working now. Just look around and see how our society is changing. There is a lot to be said about how having good work ethics gives you a better outlook on life.

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What if future generations didn't have to work? What would they do?

 

This isn't necessarily as far-fetched as it sounds. We were used to automation eliminating manufacturing jobs, but we don't always recognize that, for example, the shortage of jobs for attorneys is partially due to increased effectiveness of legal software. Similarly, many mid-level jobs in the financial and banking sector have been eliminated as a result of improved software. The idea that all the needed goods and services can be produced without employing all the available people is at least a possibility. Who knows some day you might even board a pilotless plane (you may, but I sure won't :D ) What will people do if there isn't work available?

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Now we're focusing in on what I think is the crux of the issue.

 

What if there's no work to be had for the vast majority of people?

 

There are already a lot more people out there who cannot work; not that they cannot find work... they can't work. And I think a majority of them are male. To underscore this I passed a corner where a guy was panhandling and actually leaning against a "help wanted" sign on a busy corner. The sign was for McD and this guy wasn't likely to be able to get a job there from the looks of him, but the irony of that struck me.

 

For people who are motivated and intelligent there will always be some way to get ahead. But there are growing numbers of people who, for whatever reason, just aren't there. And the jobs they used to migrate into where they could live in a 19' travel trailer behind someone's barn are just not there. Combines and tractors drive themselves nowadays! Mornings spent changing water with siphon tubes are now spent monitoring the circle irrigation system and making sure the water is exactly the right amount in exactly the right place.

 

And make no mistake, these people think they are just as intelligent and bright and creative as anyone else. They don't recognize themselves as lacking skills. They're sitting ducks for someone who can make them think that it's someone else's fault.

 

WDR

1993 Foretravel U225 with Pacbrake and 5.9 Cummins with Banks

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This isnt anything new. We are not suddenly creating stupid, lazy people. Do stupid and lazy people exist? Sure they do. But that is nothing new. There are plenty of jobs out there for those kind of people, and there always will be. Far too many people today choose not to work. Why work in a low paying service job when they can get a check from the govt? I have seen it myself..people get laid off and then dont even bother to look for work until the unemployment checks stop.

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For people who are motivated and intelligent there will always be some way to get ahead.

 

This sounds like the "Talent wins out" argument. One only has to look at who's in charge in both the private & public sectors to see the falsity of this old saw.

 

 

And make no mistake, these people think they are just as intelligent and bright and creative as anyone else. They don't recognize themselves as lacking skills. They're sitting ducks for someone who can make them think that it's someone else's fault.

 

You do realize that there is probably an even distribution of "less intelligent/less creative" people in highly paid/technical/professional positions? Or do you believe every doctor, lawyer, scientist is in the upper quartile?

 

Be careful of confusing intelligence with type of work a person does.

 

 

Far too many people today choose not to work. Why work in a low paying service job when they can get a check from the govt? I have seen it myself..people get laid off and then dont even bother to look for work until the unemployment checks stop.

 

What about those in high paying jobs who get "doles"? From those flaming liberals at Forbes -- Corporate Welfare.

SKP #79313 / Full-Timing / 2001 National RV Sea View / 2008 Jeep Wrangler Rubicon
www.rvSeniorMoments.com
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This isnt anything new. We are not suddenly creating stupid, lazy people. Do stupid and lazy people exist? Sure they do. But that is nothing new. There are plenty of jobs out there for those kind of people, and there always will be. Far too many people today choose not to work. Why work in a low paying service job when they can get a check from the govt? I have seen it myself..people get laid off and then dont even bother to look for work until the unemployment checks stop.

This is exactly my assessment. We spent last summer traveling around the upper midwest. All over IA, MN, WI, MI, SD, and ND there were help wanted signs on all types of businesses. Nearly every WalMart had a table near the entrance that prominently displayed the positions they were trying to fill. My cousin in KS had a large addition built onto their home. It took forever to complete the job because the local contractors could not find enough workers. People have no incentive to relocate to where jobs exist and no incentive to take entry level jobs where they can learn job skills and start climbing the ladder. I don't think we have a shortage of jobs but rather a lack of work ethic and we have government social programs that foster the problem. The government's management of our country, as with any management system, achieves exactly the results it is designed to achieve. This is not about the policies of a particular party - it's been evolving over several administrations.

Ron Engelsman

http://www.mytripjournal.com/our_odyssey

Full-Timing since mid 2007

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