Are You Still In?

[RV_]

Tomorrow should be interesting for everybody. The "Chicken Littles" have begun running around in circles again proclaiming the sky is solid and falling. The longs with stocks they are sure won't be bankrupting regardless, are scraping together some liquid assets to buy low if the opportunity presents, the shorts, as usual, are getting all revved up about being down.

 

The overseas markets are crazed and the price of a gallon of gas goes down even as the Saudis form a middle eastern alliance of 24 countries to fight terrorism there, and held a giant exercise including Turkey.

 

What would you buy if the price suddenly halved?

[RV_]

Well Tesla is climbing fast. Had anyone shorted it at its low they are going to be in big trouble. I had said it was a buy opportunity and it looks like the usual Tesla roller coaster. We actually like the lows as when they really have a bunch of sell offs we get another buy opportunity. My price is now 120 for a buy, and it just missed that. Tesla is here to stay. The shorts got squeezed once and I believe we are about to see it again in spades.

 

Anyone who bought at the low of $140.00 will have made 38 bucks a share as it is now at 178. If the pattern holds true as I know it will, it will hit some plateaus and hit 276 again if not finally breaking $300.00 with the unveiling/preview/status of the Model 3 in March starting the next rally.

 

Watch. And read this thread from the beginning newcomers and see how easy it is to read what Musk plans in public announcements, then bank on it being executed more or less on time but executed nevertheless.

Edited February 23, 2016 by RV

[Dollytrolley]

If the local taxi company is MAKING Nice Profits with the 19 X's they presently own and are building-out to 51 units ........this could be a huge market for Telsa.......the cab company has proof that the Telsa'a are insanely-cheap to operate compared to gas taxis.......

 

Drive on........(Taxi on .......in Style)

[RV_]

It is not just taxis. The sales figures for Luxury car sales, the only class Tesla makes until the Model 3 later this year or early 2017 as planned originally. I expect the same thing to happen when the Model 3 comes out. The Bolt will be directly compared and I have no doubt of equally price Chevy and Tesla cars compared side by side, for some of the same reasons that GM had to be bailed out by taxpayers, I doubt the Bolt will do anything but disappoint. But we will see soon won't we?

 

Excerpt:

 

Tesla is Suffocating Rivals and Gaining Market Share

 

PREFACE
A lot of the information we are about to cover could feel like a surprise, and in many ways it is. Tesla’s market size is more than three times as large as previously forecasted.

 

TESLA IS DOMINATING
U.S. sales figures for 2015 reveal that Tesla’s Model S rose to become the number one top seller within the U.S. market for large luxury vehicles, overtaking the Mercedes-Benz S-Class for the first time. Here’s the incredible data (highlighting added):

 

All of these vehicles start around the same $70,000 as the Model S.

 

Just so we’re perfectly clear on this data: Every other luxury sedan saw falling sales while Tesla saw a 51% increase. Tesla’s Model S is now the single best selling large luxury vehicle and now owns more than 25% of the market. (Source: electrek). Tesla has already displaced the hallowed Mercedes brand.

 

TESLA’S SECRET
Those numbers presented above are basically a mathematical impossibility if not for one stunning secret: Not everyone buying the Model S was an owner of a $70,000 car before.

 

In 2015, Jefferies conducted a survey of Model S owners and discovered that nearly 40% had previously owned a car that cost less than $40,000 (Business Insider). That’s borderline ludicrous. Tesla is not only moving people up – it’s moving people up by staggering amounts.

 

Here’s why that reality changes everything.

 

Here is Tesla’s all-time revenue chart:"

 

See full article in link below for the charts and graphics, as well as links to the sources and related articles go here:

http://ophirgottlieb.tumblr.com/post/139993954934/tesla-is-suffocating-rivals-and-gaining-market

Edited February 26, 2016 by RV

[RV_]

For folks wondering, had they bought Tesla on its recent drop to $142 as I'd mentioned, they would have made a month later almost 90 dollars a share as of yesterday. I know Smitty did.

[justRich]

For folks wondering, had they bought Tesla on its recent drop to $142 as I'd mentioned, they would have made a month later almost 90 dollars a share as of yesterday. I know Smitty did.

One doesn't make anything unless one sells it.

Otherwise, it's just another market high that precedes another market drop.

[RV_]

Right Bud!

(But ya can't sell what you didn't buy)

 

Smitty bought near the low and set a sell on a $40.00 gain or something, so he's made some. Me? I'm boringly long, happily having fun watching all the made up fairy tales of the shorts and transport change deniers.

Remember, I sold enough at $90 to take back 100% of my initial investment, plus a token $5k profit, and keep almost 4/5 of my shares, so I can now stay long until the Model 3 is in full production and the gigafactory is cranking out the KWs, having already made a profit and playing with house money.

Edited March 20, 2016 by RV

[RV_]

Since I've been here in Cindona's thread since 2011, and a lot of this older thread is about Tesla, I thought I'd update the folks who read it.

 

Last Thursday Elon Musk addressed the world live on streaming video from teslamotors.com with the debut of the consumer's priced ($35k) Tesla Model 3. They also opened up the reservation system so folks who wanted a Model 3 soonest could put a refundable $1000.00 deposit and get a place in line. It is great also that he made them non transferable which eliminates scalping by unscrupulous folks buying a reservation and selling it later for more than the $1k.

 

Was the debut a success? You bet! How many folks made reservations? The latest from today's WSJ is:

 

"Tesla Motors Says Reservations for Model 3 Surpass 276,000

Model 3 will be a rear-wheel-drive car with all-wheel-drive as an option, CEO says

 

Reservations for Tesla Motors Inc. ’s Model 3 electric car have now topped 276,000 since the company began taking deposits on March 31.

The figure is staggering and could represent both an evolution for Tesla and for electric cars. Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave an update on reservations on Twitter late Saturday evening, after updating the figure several times since Thursday evening’s unveiling of the prototype Model 3, due out in late 2017.

 

The Model 3 is a sedan capable of seating five and going 215 miles on a charge and 0-60 mph in less than 6 seconds, starting at a price of $35,000.

 

“All efforts focused on accelerating the ramp,” Mr. Musk said in a tweet, his standard form of communication.

 

Mr. Musk also said the company is planning to send out gifts to people who waited in line at Tesla stores as a token of appreciation.

 

To give a sense on the scale of the backlog, BMW sold about 95,000 3-series sedans in 2015 in the U.S. The Model 3 is roughly the same size and price and would likely outsell the U.S.’s best-selling compact luxury car in its first year of production if Tesla can make enough cars.

Mr. Musk, on Sunday, said on Twitter that the Model 3 will be a rear-wheel-drive car with all-wheel-drive as an option."

 

That whole article is here:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-motors-says-reservations-for-model-3-surpass-276-000-1459724101?mod=yahoo_hs

 

The biggest questions after the fact I have seen are folks that missed Elon saying that the Supercharger network free charging for trips is included in the $35k price without any incentives or rebates or tax rebates. And the other is thinking erroneously that the hardware for the autopilot feature are extra. Not true, the hardware is included in the base price. However some options will be extra later if wanted just like any car. Well not exactly because other cars can't send upgrades over the Internet and add features, performance improvements, and most firmware replacements over the Internet too.

 

If you missed the debut live because of bandwidth constraints and want to watch it when you are where you can it is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4VGQPk2Dl8

The mention of Autopilot is 10:58 minutes into the video, and the Supercharging included in the price at 13:00 into the video.

 

The shorts are going to be soiled next week and in the coming year, as before, IMO. I am so tickled to be a part of it! 2018 will be an eye opener too.

 

No car has ever debuted with that kind of response. And for the few that start on about how most of those will never buy, just remember that $1000.00 gets to stay with Tesla with no interest paid for another 18 months to two years. I'm sure some may drop out with another year or two in backlog until the factories are ramped up and churning them out to meet demand. The guess is $340 by late this year through mid 2017. We'll see.

 

I sure wish more of my friends and family bought in from the start. I did get my FIL to go in for mid 5 figures when Tesla was at 90. My son waited until $145. It has been a great week in our house. Even the family member with Alzheiner's was totally lucid more often than not.

 

We've been most fortunate and grateful for each other.

Edited April 4, 2016 by RV

[Kirk W]

One doesn't make anything unless one sells it.

Otherwise, it's just another market high that precedes another market drop.

You and I see things much the same way. I often marvel at the numbers some folks throw about speaking of both making money and also about losses. You have neither made nor lost a thing until you sell any particular investment. Large returns come with great risk taking and risky investments can loose money even more rapidly than they gain it, but both are just numbers on paper until liquidated.

 

Wise investors start by setting some goals to figure out what it is that they are seeking and then evaluate the risk that they are willing to accept to reach the goal. Younger folks who are still employed have much more time to recover from a bad choice than do those in my age group. I really don't care how impressive other folks numbers happen to be as I am only interested in what I am able to do with what I have and counting money isn't one of my hobbies. Nobody has figured out a way to take money with them to eternity, so I plan to make the best use I can of my resources while I am here. I am more interested in security of funds than I am in rapid growth. One has to balance between the two as I doubt any of those who share advice with you will help you to recover should that advice prove disastrous.

 

EDIT: I went back to take a peak at the person who made the first post in this thread........ Check it out as they seem to not exist any longer...... Or did they ever exist?

Edited April 15, 2016 by Kirk

[Five Wood]

 

EDIT: I went back to take a peak at the person who made the first post in this thread........ Check it out as they seem to not exist any longer...... Or did they ever exist?

 

Kirk,

I don't know if the original poster is around or not. I always find this thread interesting and if you read the first post it was about fear of a market meltdown. Since then the Dow has risen about 50%. In that time there were many posts here about fear of a market decline and how people were timing the market by jumping in and out.

 

I wonder how many of those who bounced in and out of the market made over 50% in the past 5 years?

 

Jim

[Ron]

Yes it's always an interesting read for me too. The conversation has wandered a lot from the original topic over the years but it was interesting to read that original post. According to my calculations the items brought up in that original post have performed as follows:

 

Dow Jones Ind. avg: Up 57.5% (if you include dividends it's up about 70%)

Tesla: Up a whopping 918%

Gold: Down 26.2%

Silver: Down 61.2%

 

Maybe that's why we're not hearing from the original poster!

 

Lesson: Listen to RV - put all you money in TSLA - stop worrying about "the market"!

 

---ron

[Kirk W]

 

Maybe that's why we're not hearing from the original poster!

 

Lesson: Listen to RV - put all you money in TSLA - stop worrying about "the market"!

Try looking for the profile on the first post........ None exists which indicates that they probably removed it and after only one post??? If you can convince enough people to buy the stock you purchased, that will make the price rise, at least for a while.

[RV_]

 

Lesson: Listen to RV - put all you money in TSLA - stop worrying about "the market"!

 

---ron

 

Ron,

I would have thought that personally mocking me or anyone was beneath you. Apparently not. That was meant to be hurtful to someone who has always been willing to help here, including you. If you think I have mocked you, please post the link to that post here. You know you won't find it, not because I am careful, but because I am a nice guy. I won't return your lack of respect in turn. I have a wonderful life. If yours is less than you would like, I wish you better. I don't wish you the same as you wish me, as some say. That would make me petty enough to try to demean the many life winners here in this wonderful organization too. See, the thread has my track record. The 1494.1176470588236% (increase with today's price of 254 and my initial buy at $17)increase of Tesla or thereabouts proven. Yes I am playing with the house money. Yes I am fine with the risk, no fear. If I lose it because I was wrong then so be it. I am a big boy. It was discretionary money from the start. I am retired military and built up property and other holdings cash or paid off in a year or three. No debt of any kind. It's when I win that the worst in a few others seems to come out. But my friends are genuinely happy for us. Apparently you will not be counted in that group.

 

For those whose savings are their retirement then it IS different. Good luck to you Ron, really.

[RV_]

Kirk,

You are truly amazing! I hope you are alright because your posts are getting weirder lately. If you can't talk straight why all the innuendo? What are you afraid of saying?

[RV_]

Jim, I agree it has been a good run so far, and I believe much more to come. Again the market surprises. And we've both done well.

 

BTW, if the person who emailed me way back when and advised me to take my principal off the table early, for which I am still grateful wants to uncloak you have my permission. If not, then thank you so very much for helping a raw beginner out when I asked.

 

Another advised me to learn how to short and when I looked at the loss possibilities with what I knew about Tesla I am glad I dropped that idea. There are a lot of "soiled shorts" on Tesla forums.

[Ron]

RV, I'm sorry you took my post as being mocking of you. That's really not what I intended - it was intended only as a little levity.

 

I also wish you well. You've been doing great with this investment and your instincts with Musk and his endeavors have been spot-on. I don't think you've mocked me or anyone else on this site and I'll try to be much more careful in the future.

 

---ron

[justRich]

RV, I'm sorry you took my post as being mocking of you. That's really not what I intended - it was intended only as a little levity.

 

That is precisely how I took it. . .with a smile. Spot on.

[RV_]

Thanks Ron,

Thanks for letting me know your intent. Just the post order threw me. Sorry pal. My bad. I wave off that stuff as just in fun too most times. No excuse either. My annual dermatology "I'm just going to freeze that" appointment went well and instead of looking like a maniac attacked me with an ice pick, or I have some incurable acne, I only had a few face spots to burn with cold, and a couple on my back. Doc said I'm doing better than most. So life's good, my bad, life's good again.

 

Thanks Rich. I'm back.

 

Yes, I over-reacted.

Edited April 16, 2016 by RV

[Five Wood]

Jim, I agree it has been a good run so far, and I believe much more to come. Again the market surprises. And we've both done well.

 

BTW, if the person who emailed me way back when and advised me to take my principal off the table early, for which I am still grateful wants to uncloak you have my permission. If not, then thank you so very much for helping a raw beginner out when I asked.

 

Another advised me to learn how to short and when I looked at the loss possibilities with what I knew about Tesla I am glad I dropped that idea. There are a lot of "soiled shorts" on Tesla forums.

 

RV

I think there has been a misunderstanding about my post above. It was not intended as a negative comment on you or your Tesla investment. I was simply making the comment that, in my opinion, timing the market rarely works over the long run. Any comments that I have made to you on your Tesla investment have been intended to be supportive. I enjoy investing and I enjoy talking with other investors about it. And I regret that you have misunderstood my intention.

 

Your second paragraph has me scratching my head a bit. I probably did suggest taking some profit after Tesla had it's initial run up. That sounds like something I would say. I see that as a prudent course of action for a conservative investor who has a stock that has had a massive run up in a short period of time. The part about "uncloaking" I don't understand. I assume I must have sent that comment in a private e-mail rather than a public post, so as to avoid a public discussion on the merits of selling Tesla, and that may be what your referring to. But I can't believe I would not have signed the e-mail.

 

 

RV

 

I can't remember if I presented this strategy to you in the past or not. If I did, or you are aware of the process, please disregard.

 

TSLA is at 162.50 as of today's close. You say that you would be happy to buy it at 120. The stock has already had a large drop and from here down to 120 is another 26 percent drop. Assume that you wanted to buy an additional 100 shares at 120. The March 2016 120 Put options on Tesla closed at 2.80 per share today. One contract covers 100 shares, so that gives it a value of 280.00.

 

You can sell one contract for $280.00 and that amount will immediately be credited to your account. In return for selling that option you are now obligated to buy 100 shares of TSLA at $120.00 at any time between now and the third Friday in March. If it falls to $110 you are still obligated to buy it at $120, but that is the point that you would have executed a buy order on it anyway. If TSLA goes bankrupt between now and the third Friday in March. . . you are still obligated to buy the shares at $120.

 

If TSLA does not reach 120 in the next six weeks you keep the $280.00 and the Put option you sold expires worthless. This gives you a 20% annualized return on your amount at risk. . . which was $12,000. . . 120 per share times 100 shares in the contract. This amount will then lower your cost basis on the shares that are in your TSLA position.

 

Assume TSLA only falls to 140. . . you will then re-write the put option at 120 or lower and the process starts again. If TSLA goes up, you still keep the premium and your cost basis on the core position is further reduced.

 

A stock will only do one of five things. . .

 

1. Goes up dramatically

2. Goes up gradually

3. Trends sideways

4. Goes down gradually

5. Goes down dramatically (including bankruptcy)

 

This process of acquiring stock, or adding to a position, allows you to make a profit in four of the five possible scenarios. Those are pretty good odds. If an investor has a firmly defined level at which he or she will enter a position or add to an existing position this is an excellent way to generate profits as you wait for that price point to arrive. If it never arrives, you are still money ahead.

 

I'm not making any recommendation here or offering any financial advice. In fact, TSLA is not a stock I would invest in (no offence intended RV) it's just not my type of investment. But I have found this to be a very good way to open new positions or add to existing positions.

 

Jim

 

Your last paragraph I assume refers to my post of several months ago (above) when I was responding to your comment that you would like to add to your Tesla position if the stock drops to 120. Your response to that post made it apparent that I had again not made myself clear, so I thought it best to just drop it. That strategy has nothing do do with shorting a stock. In fact, it is an extremely conservative way to add to a position at a lower cost basis, when the investor knows the price at which he would like to buy.

 

RV, my posts to you on Tesla are never meant to be negative. I unfortunately fail to make my intentions clear. I wish you well with your investments.

 

Jim

[hdrider]

I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to this stuff but I have always hated the saying "you don't loose money unless you make a transaction". It's like buying a gallon of milk and saying out will never run out of milk if you don't drink it in a way. I guess a car won't loose money if you buy it, park it in a field and leave it either.

Sorry, just never understood this part of investing. But just because I don't understand or really agree with it we do have our largest chunk of money doing just what the saying says LOL!! But I'll tell ya that we have a small amount that I take in and out just a few times a year that has made more money than the "left alone" portion over the last 12 months.

Let me once again say that I'm probably the least knowing person on this thread when it comes to this stuff so excuse me if that ruffled feathers.

[RV_]

I took all of yours as supportive Jim! See what happens when one could be taken either way gets taken wrong. Jim I was agreeing with your post. I think it was another here because it was not on the forum thread but in a PM or an email. I think it was Smitty but I really forget. It may have been you. That has been three years ago. Lets all just relax folks. I am fine with Ron and said I am sorry. As I said I did not expect that from him. And he said he didn't mean so I accept that.

 

Jim I am unambiguous and do not play games like only one other here I know of. Jim I count you among my best friends here on the forums along with quite a few others. Like my over reaction to Ron, I make it clear when I feel I have been mocked or demeaned.

 

I take everyone as truthful until they prove otherwise.

 

If you lost money or made it, good for you.

 

But both of you Ron and Jim, thanks for caring above and beyond just acquaintances. I owe ya both a tour of the new house and a cuppa or drink if you ever are crossing on I-20 in the Shreveport area. More than a few other friends have.

[RV_]

You're fine HD rider.

 

I interpret that adage as a retort by some when someone long or has not sold their current holdings in a company claiming how much money they have made. It is a given when I or another say that our shares have made X number of dollars with the unspoken if I sold my shares today.

 

There are others that say they lost money after they sold low. Think about that. If you read my posts all through here from 2011 to now you will see I never talked about losing money on Tesla when it took one of its steep dips. Instead I let friends know if it is what I consider a buy price. See I don't lose money until I sell either.

 

The oft repeated axiom to buy low sell high seems obvious until you watch a major market drop. Folks holding stocks like IBM and GE are in no danger of them going completely under, just that the market IS mostly very nervous people. Those types really need to stay out because they will sell low and then even if they sold at half a drop, they usually don't get their nerve up until everyone says it is safe.

 

The market swings up and down usually with a few years between Bear and Bull markets.

 

For example I took a position despite being set with a retirement and no debt including our properties designing and selling steel buildings ands was very successful. I used almost 100% of that compensation in 2007/8/9 to buy USAA funds and property. I was working because it was fun, not because I needed the money. I left them in late 2009 as we had built it up to the point that the owner wanted me to step up and manage the Construction side of the house as well as the marketing, IT, and office tours and management. I was then 58 and decided that I did not want to go back to 18 hour days starting at "Oh my God! It's dark outside O'Clock!" So I retired again. Just in time to take my biz account for my payroll and petty cash that I was closing anyway and buy into Tesla. that was 2010 and I almost used it for a 15kw Solar system but held off and am glad I did. When I do cash in some or all my Telsa remaining shares I can build it then as well as the prices for Solar have come down a lot.

 

So all I can say now is that I already cashed in enough when it hit $90s to take my original investment and a token profit off the table. So I can say I made money already, not even counting what I would make if I sold with it at $250 today.

 

There are much higher risks like shorting, not for me. IT involves a tiny bit of market timing and no one can time the market. I do not go to the casinos here either. And there are other safeguards you can use to buy more if it goes down to a certain price, or sell if it goes above a certain price. I am indefinitely long. I reviewed my investment with them in 2013 as I said I would, then again after the Model S was in full production. I am now holding off selling any until the Model 3 is in steady production and the Gigafactory is in full production. Likely 2018 for both to have gotten ramped up to a steady stream of production.

 

That is my thinking, does that help explain it?

 

Welcome to the financial forums HD!

[justRich]

CNN money recently looked at this:

Democrats vs. Republicans: Who's better for stocks?

 

Please don't let it get political, but it is of interest.

[Trucken]

U rider: you are correct. That type of drivel come from people that have never traded THEIR own portfolio. Their knowledge comes from what the broker said or what they have read and like to pass it on as experience. Give a applause to the funds that have made money for them.

 

Feel there should be a thread just for TESLA. RV is enamored with tesla and Mr Musk, justifiably so he has had made an great investment and I am jealous....unfortunately I cannot investing 1/4 of my k on the chance it goes higher, FOR EVER.

 

This thread is ARE YOU STILL INVESTING not are you going to invest in TESLA.

 

RV you stated many pages back TESLA IS your only personnel investment

 

I can kick my a$$ on Home Depot, and my good woman kicks it on STARBUCKS. You have kicked it on TESLA.

 

VADIMER..... Said it the best---financial planning is not rocket science.

Suggest you read his past post, very smart person.

How many here ACTUALLY DO UR OWN INVESTING.. Not many I assume.

 

Trucken.

[RV_]

Good comment Trucken. I keep folks on this thread abreast of Tesla and Space X because they are disrupting many areas of trade beyond their obvious main markets. There's lots to be made in suppliers for the tech. If Space X follows through with their partnership for a constellation of LEO communication satellites for broadband and cells. We are in a seriously transitional period where the status quo is again going to be turned on its head.

 

The next five years will be seminal for investors that just watch and act on what is there, not what they want to be there.

 

Tesla is ongoing because they are ongoing with new advances and new models of new tech vehicles. There is a story change monthly. Everything said to be impossible is done, now it is just overcoming the absurd resistance. It's like being a knowledgeable fan at a baseball game talking with friends during the game about what's going on during the game. Then someone complains about talking only about the game during the game. Tesla is a shutout in the offing. Some can't see it coming even pointed out as it runs them over. Rules are changing and the things that worked before don't anymore.

 

There's room for enthusiasts in every field to share what's happening in their fields that will disrupt.